IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[kincsem]

Betfair money bet
Black Caviar €12,595,612 favourite
Moonlight Cloud €193,975 2nd favourite

[japeye]

Hope BC puts on a big show and lights up ascot, if something goes a miss i hope society rock gets up.

[kincsem]

Cheeky

[Wesley Harms]

That Jockey was very close to having to stay in England for fear of his life

[DAMO72]

What time is the race on ?? Channel ??

[Dice75]

That Jockey was very close to having to stay in England for fear of his life

I'd say he kacked his pants with 50 yards to go when he realised the two on his inside were coming so fast!

[kincsem]

Trainer needs to change his trousers.

[badugi]

12.6 million couldve gone the wrong way there!

[kincsem]

The trainer should borrow the jockey's whip and give him a few lashes.

[rounders123]

Fair play to the jockey taking the cop in true Aussie style. Glad they got it done.

[jazzyfish]

come on richard hughes lets do this

[Marsden02]

didnt even get mentioned

[amberleaf]

think the mullins trained split ear is worth a small e/w in the 7.50 Ballinrobe,looks like a competitive race but has dropped to a very handy mark,was a 5 lgt 5th last time out and money in the market as well this morning,worth a small e/w at 12/1

[theshortstack]

think the mullins trained split ear is worth a small e/w in the 7.50 Ballinrobe,looks like a competitive race but has dropped to a very handy mark,was a 5 lgt 5th last time out and money in the market as well this morning,worth a small e/w at 12/1

Got him @13/2 and have him in a double with renoyr in the 8:25 9/2, fingers crossed.

[amberleaf]

think the mullins trained split ear is worth a small e/w in the 7.50 Ballinrobe,looks like a competitive race but has dropped to a very handy mark,was a 5 lgt 5th last time out and money in the market as well this morning,worth a small e/w at 12/1

get the fuck in there!

[FeetMagic]

Are odds available for this on Boyles yet? Having difficulty finding any races tomorrow.

[amberleaf]

Are odds available for this on Boyles yet? Having difficulty finding any races tomorrow.

http://www.irishracing.com/cards/v5card078201206281900.htm

[The Situation]

tomorrow morning sometime is the time to back it. I am not saying he is a bet yet but in all probability I will be saying it later. no panic. hold fire.

What's the draw bias like at Tipp over 5(he's drawn 12)? Said it before but there's a shocking lack of accessible info on this type of thing for Irish tracks.

[The Situation]

thats one of the things il be studying - tbh I think Tipp is a reasonably neutral track.

Just a snippet from their website, evidence not provided though:

A low draw is favoured on the round track, while a high draw has been slightly favoured in big fields at 5 furlongs, more so on soft going.

[Dice75]

Probably asked before but anyway........

Why do bookies give you half your stake at full odds and not full stake at half odds in the event of a dead-heat?


i.e. today had (ahem) €1 on a 5/2 shot which dead-heats.

So I get €1.75 back but the other way would return €2.25.



Is that standard practice or do any bookies differ?

SPOILER

Not aftertiming btw

[mcnugget]

Probably asked before but anyway........

Why do bookies give you half your stake at full odds and not full stake at half odds in the event of a dead-heat?


i.e. today had (ahem) €1 on a 5/2 shot which dead-heats.

So I get €1.75 back but the other way would return €2.25.



Is that standard practice or do any bookies differ?

SPOILER

Not aftertiming btw

Because it wasn't really a winner, he only "half won" if you like. All bookies settle the dead heat this way (although a lot of independents will pay you as a full winner)

[Donkathon]

Probably asked before but anyway........

Why do bookies give you half your stake at full odds and not full stake at half odds in the event of a dead-heat?


i.e. today had (ahem) €1 on a 5/2 shot which dead-heats.

So I get €1.75 back but the other way would return €2.25.



Is that standard practice or do any bookies differ?

SPOILER

Not aftertiming btw

Open to correction but I believe Boyle's pay out full stake & odds,

(& best price for dogs when they drift when PP won't)

[terryl]

nearly all pay out full now on dead heat.

[Dice75]

Open to correction but I believe Boyle's pay out full stake & odds,

(& best price for dogs when they drift when PP won't)

nearly all pay out full now on dead heat.

Intersting. Bet was in a PP shop. Obv more than €1.

Must have a scout around a few firms T&C's out of interest.

[Donkathon]

Intersting. Bet was in a PP shop. Obv more than €1.

Must have a scout around a few firms T&C's out of interest.

Yeah in that respect PP are fucking people over, doesnt happen so much obviously with dead heats with PP but I'm sick of going in to back greyhounds @ 5/2 & take the price for them to drift to 4's and say nope sorry

Fuck that, Boyle's only down the road anyway

[NewApproach]

Just stop betting on dogs and you won't have that problem.

[Mellor]

Because it wasn't really a winner, he only "half won" if you like. All bookies settle the dead heat this way (although a lot of independents will pay you as a full winner)

that's why they have the rule in place, but doesn't explain why it's half stake over half odds

Why do bookies give you half your stake at full odds and not full stake at half odds in the event of a dead-heat?

It's because half stake at full odds half the return, which is fair.
Full stake, Half odds only halfs the profit with full stake back. Which is unfair, more noticeable in low odds.

Say a boxing match is a draw. Both fighters at evens. The fair result is all stakes back and not 50% profit for everyone

[Semibluff]

Tipp racing abandoned today!

[westlife]

Open to correction but I believe Boyle's pay out full stake & odds,

(& best price for dogs when they drift when PP won't)

Lol....... Wrong and wrong. ( boyles dont even pay out better sp on their across the card doubles) And the answer why ALL bookmakers pay you half your stake at full odds is simple.... it allows them to pay out less every time!

[amberleaf]

not too surprised about tipp being put off,crazy rain down here last night,two to look out for over the next few days,Judge 'n Jury was supposed to run in the curragh over the weekend but has ended up in newcastle(7.45) on friday night,according to the trainer this horse has had some sort of operation to help with the breathing and thinks it will bring on some improvement and it has,was rated 87 and is now 98,worth looking at if the price is right,in the curragh on sunday True Verdict in the 3.10 has had just two runs both on yeilding,2nd last time out in a listed,well worth keeping on the right side of.

[Dice75]

Lol....... Wrong and wrong. ( boyles dont even pay out better sp on their across the card doubles) And the answer why ALL bookmakers pay you half your stake at full odds is simple.... it allows them to pay out less every time!

Yeah was thinking last night - if you backed an odds on chance (say 4/6) & it dead-heats, you would actually lose money despite it winning!

(i.e - you wouldnt even get your full stake back)

[westlife]

that's why they have the rule in place, but doesn't explain why it's half stake over half odds




It's because half stake at full odds half the return, which is fair.
Full stake, Half odds only halfs the profit with full stake back. Which is unfair, more noticeable in low odds.

Say a boxing match is a draw. Both fighters at evens. The fair result is all stakes back and not 50% profit for everyone

This is fair? To who? Do you think it's fair if you back an even money shot an he dead heats that you get your money back! And your boxing example, (correct me if I'm wrong) is there not always a "draw" price included? And never in the history of bookmaking has there been evens each of 2 in a 2 horse race! 5/6 each is the very best. And this in situations where a draw is not possible! (snooker, tennis )

[westlife]

Yeah was thinking last night - if you backed an odds on chance (say 4/6) & it dead-heats, you would actually lose money despite it winning!

(i.e - you wouldnt even get your full stake back)

Correct, it's a horrible and unjustified rule. Can anyone vindicate that when you back a 4/5 shot in a 18 runner maiden, he dead heats ( beating the other 16 runners) and you lose money after backing a winner?

[Norwichfanrob]

in relation to the dead heat thing, its pure maths.
think of it as half your bet wins, half your bet loses.
you don't get your stake back on the half that loses.

simple example, 2 horse race, both horses evens.

john puts 100 on horse 1, tom puts 100 on horse 2
horses deadheat

john has 50 win at evens, tom has 50 win at evens, both get their money back (100)
bookie breaks even, they breakeven, this is clearly fair.

if they both got the 100 stake back plus the 50, both punters win, bookies lose, this is clearly unfair !!

(obv its never a 2 horse race with both horses evens, but same logic applies)

take an example where 4 or 5 horses somehow deadheat, under what u suggest , getting half win + all stakes back, bookies would lose a fortune !

[The Situation]

Camelot going to be a NR? Prob the worst group 1 of the year if he doesn't run.

[Dice75]

in relation to the dead heat thing, its pure maths.
think of it as half your bet wins, half your bet loses.
you don't get your stake back on the half that loses.

simple example, 2 horse race, both horses evens.

john puts 100 on horse 1, tom puts 100 on horse 2
horses deadheat

john has 50 win at evens, tom has 50 win at evens, both get their money back (100)
bookie breaks even, they breakeven, this is clearly fair.

if they both got the 100 stake back plus the 50, both punters win, bookies lose, this is clearly unfair !!

(obv its never a 2 horse race with both horses evens, but same logic applies)

take an example where 4 or 5 horses somehow deadheat, under what u suggest , getting half win + all stakes back, bookies would lose a fortune !

I understand the maths, just think there should be a sub-rule that if your selection dead-heats you should be gtd your stake back?

[Keane]

If you back a horse to win and it draws I don't think you should be entitled to your money back

[amberleaf]

not too surprised about tipp being put off,crazy rain down here last night,two to look out for over the next few days,Judge 'n Jury was supposed to run in the curragh over the weekend but has ended up in newcastle(7.45) on friday night,according to the trainer this horse has had some sort of operation to help with the breathing and thinks it will bring on some improvement and it has,was rated 87 and is now 98,worth looking at if the price is right,in the curragh on sunday True Verdict in the 3.10 has had just two runs both on yeilding,2nd last time out in a listed,well worth keeping on the right side of.

looks like judge and jury is running at the curragh after all,with newcastle put off,worth a nibble e/w in the 7-00 this evening

[The Situation]

QQ: Should know this but took the unders in a distance special on Camelot before IM was withdrawn. Is this void or is there any affect to the bet?

[japeye]

looks like judge and jury is running at the curragh after all,with newcastle put off,worth a nibble e/w in the 7-00 this evening

I really like Tiddliwinks but the ground is a big worry so small win bet @ 5/1, he will either win or will be last due to the soft ground.


Gordon Lord Byron @ 7/1 in the 5;55 must have an ew chance, got no real run last time and Hughes wasn't too hard on him when out of contention, Mareek boosted the form again winning GR3 in newcastle today. Ground should be no problem as won on heavy. In the same race Luisant @ 16/1 might be over priced if running back to its best.
(money back special with PP, if horse is 2nd in this race)


As for the derby, no bet but surly Astrology (who will like ground and placed in Epsom) can grab 2nd. 4/1 W/O Fav.

[Caf]

I have a Battleroftheboyne type horn on me for a horse running on Thursday evening in Tipperary!! Looking forward to declarations on Wednesday morning.

Runs in the next in the Curragh I see, no horn for it today?

Think I'll back Bubbly Bellini e/w in it @9/1. Won with ease last time out but this is a much tougher race.

[eagle eye]

PP have priced Ucanchoose up at 9/1 outsider of 9 in the 5f handicap in the Curragh tomorrow. That is quite simply a mistake. No matter what way you look at it there is no way this horse is 9th pick over 5f on Heavy/Soft ground. Id be recommending him as a healthy EW bet at that price.

Just looking through today's results and I see Slattery had a 20/1 winner today at the Curragh. Very surprised that they'd put Ucanchoose up at that price with his form and the stable obviously in good nick too.

[eagle eye]

I hope Camelot does it. I don't like that he is running here at all.

[eagle eye]

We knew he was class, we now know he is a very tough horse too.

[amberleaf]

looks like judge and jury is running at the curragh after all,with newcastle put off,worth a nibble e/w in the 7-00 this evening

grrr almost,gave it a great go,finished 2nd @ 10/1,still backed it e/w,pays for tomorrows yankee

[amberleaf]

and that yankee is

3.10 curragh True Verdict
4.55 curragh Ucanchoose
2.55 uttox Deadliest Catch
3.30 uttox Sea Saffron

[The Situation]

Derby a bit of a joke yesterday, I'd definitely be in the cynical camp over why Imperial Monarch was pulled. Camelot will get done at a short price sooner or later.

Like Mister Aviation in the opener @ 11/4.

[Wesley Harms]

Derby a bit of a joke yesterday, I'd definitely be in the cynical camp over why Imperial Monarch was pulled. Camelot will get done at a short price sooner or later.

Like Mister Aviation in the opener @ 11/4.

Odds if he turns up in the Juddmonte (which he won't, no way coolmore runs him against the freak).

I'd say 1/2 Frankel 6/4 Camelot?

[Mike]

PP have priced Ucanchoose up at 9/1 outsider of 9 in the 5f handicap in the Curragh tomorrow. That is quite simply a mistake. No matter what way you look at it there is no way this horse is 9th pick over 5f on Heavy/Soft ground. Id be recommending him as a healthy EW bet at that price.

into 11/2 9/2 with pp now..

Blindly followed last night however so got the 9/1

[NewApproach]

Odds if he turns up in the Juddmonte (which he won't, no way coolmore runs him against the freak).

I'd say 1/2 Frankel 6/4 Camelot?

1/2 Frankel would be the bet of the year

[westlife]

in relation to the dead heat thing, its pure maths.
think of it as half your bet wins, half your bet loses.
you don't get your stake back on the half that loses.

simple example, 2 horse race, both horses evens.

john puts 100 on horse 1, tom puts 100 on horse 2
horses deadheat

john has 50 win at evens, tom has 50 win at evens, both get their money back (100)
bookie breaks even, they breakeven, this is clearly fair.

if they both got the 100 stake back plus the 50, both punters win, bookies lose, this is clearly unfair !!

(obv its never a 2 horse race with both horses evens, but same logic applies)

take an example where 4 or 5 horses somehow deadheat, under what u suggest , getting half win + all stakes back, bookies would lose a fortune !

Hi Rob,

It would never be a situation where half gets paid out on more then 2 dead heaters

3 dead heat = 1/3 odds
4 dead heat 1/4 odds a so on!

your example is valid if bookmakers run on 100% over round.... but they don't! Let me give you an example of a race with horrendous percentage advantage in the bookies favour that makes the simple maths not so simple!

Open dog race at Monmore park last year
Betting:
T1 -8/1
T2 - 8/1
T3 - 10/1
T4 - 20/1
T5 - 1/1
T6 - 1/1



As the rule stands the bookie will be praying for a dead heat with these odds.
If T5 & T6 dead heat:

The bookies will have no liability whatsoever (money back on winners and every bet placed on the other 4 dogs is a loser). The cannot lose with this overround. The senario above is actually likely in a race compared to your example of evens each of 2 in a 2 horse race!

It boils down to over round percentages of a race. Every percentage that is above 100% is in the advantage of the bookie. Look at the over round of any dog race in the UK. The bookies have a massive edge already in 99% of racing. The don't need the dead heat ( .005 of all races?) as well!

[amberleaf]

i see will mullins has just one runner today in Gowran Park with a horse called Call Me Bubbles in the 8.30 (handicap over 1m1f Rated 47-65),rated at 54(was 64 on the a.w.)obviously the horse is no superstar but does have little pieces of form,was a 5.5 lgt 4th to Aquilonius last time out on dec 23rd over distance in dundalk,Aquilonius has since gone on to land a handicap 60-90.the bare form lines look poor enough tbh,but when you factor in the stable form as well as the jockey booking,P J Smullen rides for the first time,also the horse had a entry for fairyhouse tomorrow,but has ended up here today.priced up @ 7/1 worth just a tiny e/w bet

[amberleaf]

Call Me Bubbles was withdrawn might be worth looking out for in the future

heres a interesting one for ye-all,in the 8.30 Leopardstown,the cross charity handicap rated 50-75 for 3-y-o plus over 1m4f,over the past 6 years bolger has trained the winner no less then 4 times,the two times he didn't train the winner,he didnt have a runner in the race

in 2011 won by Global Recovery @ 20/1
in 2010 won by Via Archimede @ 12/1
in 2009 no runner
in 2008 won by Slan Abhaile @ 11/4
in 2007 no runner
in 2006 won by Cat On The Luas @ 9/4

to-day he has a horse called Foinse priced up at 14/1
not a whole pile of form to go on with just 3 runs under the belt with just one over distance when finishing 5th from 12,but the breeding looks very good with Teofilo the eye catcher who won 5 from five including a few group ones,all be it over 7 furlongs
this is the first time in a handicap for the horse with just 8-4 to carry and is just rated 63
also has blinkers,again kind of interesting,given that all of the bolger trained winners of the race more or less led from the front and out stayed the others
will the horse win to-day? who knows,too much of the unknown but given the above this 14/1 could be great value and imo is well worth a e/w go at the odds

[amberleaf]

well yesterdays hero bet went belly up,still when it drifted out to 28s half hour before the race,think we had a fair Idea as to what was expected.

going to try our old pal Battleroftheboyne each way today in the 6.25 in Bellewstown,was well down the field last time in the power sprint,but was 2nd before that in down royal behind patrickwell(almost led a a little Projectile vomit in my house hold )anyways its a 8 runner handicap over 5f,plenty of dangers in the race with Bogini who won just last night over 6,greek Canyon looks a smart horse,and Phebes Wish whos best form is on the A.W.,
still bob looks consistent over the trip on the going,plenty of blue for it as well this morning,give a score e/w @ 8/1

[Jaysoose]

Free money backing blackstairmounain on the flat for a spin tonight...wheee.

[Caf]

Did someone tip a horse called Honeymead around here recently? Not sure why it rings a bell and had a look back through the thread but couldn't spot it, runs later in Ripon.

edit: LOL it was me who got a tip for it and posted in the BBV, unfortunately if I talk to the guy who gave it to me I won't be online until after the race so nvm I guess.

Small e/w on Caledonia Lady @66/1. Almost definitely too much of a step up in class but has done me favours in the past and can't resist that big a price. Think Bated Breath is the one to beat in that though.

Caledonia Lady probably has a big race in her, an impressive 7th imo finishing well, held back in last place throughout.

Caledonia Lady was ridden closer to the pace and won a Group 3 on Sat in Sandown @10s, only won by a nose but could have won a lot easier had she got a gap earlier, def one to keep an eye on imo.

[amberleaf]

i see will mullins has just one runner today in Gowran Park with a horse called Call Me Bubbles in the 8.30 (handicap over 1m1f Rated 47-65),rated at 54(was 64 on the a.w.)obviously the horse is no superstar but does have little pieces of form,was a 5.5 lgt 4th to Aquilonius last time out on dec 23rd over distance in dundalk,Aquilonius has since gone on to land a handicap 60-90.the bare form lines look poor enough tbh,but when you factor in the stable form as well as the jockey booking,P J Smullen rides for the first time,also the horse had a entry for fairyhouse tomorrow,but has ended up here today.priced up @ 7/1 worth just a tiny e/w bet

the above was withdrawn last week due to change in ground and turned up in roscommon last night,13/2 in the morning ended up winning by a short head @ 9/4,willie mullins trained horses are in great form and the statistics are just mind-boggling at this stage,showing a win rate of 46% in the national Hunt flat and a win rate 30% over hurdles.with fairyhouse abandoned,rosscommon is the only irish meeting on today.
in the 6.25,a novice hurdle, he runs Letherbelucky@ 6/4 and in the 8.25 a NHFR over 2m4f he runs Connaught Manor @ 10/11
the double here pays around 7/2,well worth a little punt imo

[Opr]

Cheers amberleaf, good call on both.

Opr

[amberleaf]

cheers opr,didnt think Letherbelucky would drift out to 2/1 given its previous form, Connaught Manor didnt look too shabby,ended up getting 5/1 on the double,both did their job well,mullins has three going in wexford today with Raptor priced up @ 10/11 in the 3.45,looks the most obvious,going to stick it in a treble with a irish point to point horse called Glen Gyle in worcester 7.10,priced up at 5/4 but won very well last time in hexham,this looks harder tbh but worth sticking it in for a small money treble.
the third horse i'm going for is another irish horse called Latest Trend in the 7.40 worcester,the horse has only ever raced in ireland before and is now trained by tim Vaughan and has Johnson on board,was 3rd last time out with the 2nd in that race (Cnoc Na Sioga) franking the form since,was 9/4 and into 2/1 already

the treble pays about 11/1,do me grand for the day and good luck to us if your playing

[The Situation]

Gale Force Ten a max bet for me (15/8) today after Sir Prancelot being a non runner.