IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[amberleaf]

Amber your understanding of handicapping seems to be poor. Nurse Ryans offical rating is the same as last race, the higher weight in todays race is because he's one of the higher rated as it's only a 80-109 race compared to the 81-116 race last time out. You should be focussing more on the horses OR rather than the actual weight in any giving race and whether you think the horse is unexposed at the mark it's on or whether the handicapper has it within his grips.

yep,wouldn't disagree with you there tbh,still a lot to learn about the racing game,cheers for the advice tho!

[amberleaf]

no joy with the rfc and Wasabis House,nurse ryan was backed during the day and went off @ 8/1,took its chance well

[The Situation]

I haven't seen enough from Camelot to justify his superstar billing, clearly very good but a lot of the hype is due to Ballydoyles apparent quotes re him being their best in a long time imo. He could well be but remember them saying something similar re Seville last season. Not a vintage Derby, Astrology may be the EW value.

[Wesley Harms]

I haven't seen enough from Camelot to justify his superstar billing, clearly very good but a lot of the hype is due to Ballydoyles apparent quotes re him being their best in a long time imo. He could well be but remember them saying something similar re Seville last season. Not a vintage Derby, Astrology may be the EW value.

A Classic winner over a mile out of Montjeu, they will take this one up till they drop

[NewApproach]

On one hand, he won a weak guineas by a neck when the race was ran to suit him. On the other hand, he is essentially the only bullet APO'B is firing at the race so he must be pretty confident. In any normal year the horses he is sending to France tomorrow would have every right to take their chance in the Epsom Derby. I'll be happy enough to watch him win at the price.

[The Situation]

Suppose the lack of elite stables queueing up to take him on may speak volumes, but surprised how weak the Coronation cup entry list is, everyone bending over for APOB.

[jazzyfish]

3.40 haydock samminder 3.30 sparkling pontrait 14.35 red jazz 15.15 captain dunne

[Wesley Harms]

Not sure how you think the guineas was run to suit Camelot tbf.

[jazzyfish]

Not sure how you think the guineas was run to suit Camelot tbf.

you saying this to me ?

[Dice75]

you saying this to me ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IXmHqPWxUw

Think hes talking to NA somehow.

[eagle eye]

Wow thats some horse, made that look like a maiden or something. Sooo easy.

[Strewelpeter]

"He didn't handle the track at all, he didn't come down the hill. He was very lucky to win today"

Wow!

posted from phone so please excuse the spelling and auto correct crap

[Donk Magnet]

wow wow wow just class

[Wesley Harms]

Run him in the Irish Leger for the lols, sicken the brits

[amberleaf]

anyone looking for a punt on the ponys,think it might be worth having a e/w on True Verdict@ 5/1 in naas tommorrow 4.45 ,fluffed its lines at the stalls last time before making up ground to finish a close 2nd,the better going should suit as well,well worth a pop imo!

[amberleaf]

meh 1/2 lenght 2nd

[Pat Mustard]

Iron mill lad for the bumper in Downpatrick tomorrow

[amberleaf]

Iron mill lad for the bumper in Downpatrick tomorrow

hmmm i see mick winters has Carrig'n May going in this as well,one of only two horses he has running to day,the other killdunne is going in the first,has russell booked but the horse looks a little exposed,but who knows with these lads!,Carrig'n May on the other hand finished 2nd first time under rules a few weeks back on good ground,would think any sort of improvement will see it fight out the finish,mick also had a winner yesterday in Listowel in the first,(m'dn h'dl) with with a very good horse called Missunited,so his horses seem to be in good form,and downpatrick is a long way from north cork to take a few horses for nothing,be Intresting to see how this turns out,wont be having a bet myself so good luck on what your punting on.

edit might do a little reverse forecast on iron mill lad/Carrig'n May for fun more than anything

[Pat Mustard]

forgot to put this up last week but this horse is a cert for royal ascot, would rather see him stick to 5f instead of go for the Coventry but think he showed he has the speed for the 2.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/richard-hannon-r-hughes-sandown-awesome-sir-prancealot-blazes-to-national-stakes-win/1043891/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

[Percy007]

Good luck, hope your run good continues.

[flushjee]

Tropical beat winnar

[Pat Mustard]

Interested to see how along gets on in the next in fairy house, looks the real deal on paper....(races aren't run on paper ya da ya da)

[amberleaf]

must say this sea saffron is turning into a little nugget of gold,just keeps on giving

06Jun12 Car 30GS 1-0y HcapCh(12K) 11-6[7/1] 1st of 9 1 ½L to Heez A Steel (IRE) Matt Griffiths 122
08May12 Exe 23S 4y+ HcapHdl(7K) 9-11[9/2] 3rd of 15 7.00L behind Ruben Cotter (IRE) James Best
01May12 Exe 24H 5y+ HcapCh(5K) 11-4[7/2f] 1st of 7 26L to Tim The Chair (IRE) James Best 111
17Apr12 Exe 30GF 5y+ HcapCh(10K) 9-11[3/1f] 1st of 9 16L to Jolly Boys Outing (IRE) Matt Griffiths 94
04Apr12 Exe 23GF 4y+ HcapHdl(7K) 10-13[9/4] 2nd of 4 hd behind Magic Marmalade (IRE) Matt Griffiths 102
20Mar12 Exe 23G 4y+ HcapHdl(3K) 11-0[13/2] 1st of 8 ½L to Arctic Watch (GB)

[mdoug]

must say this sea saffron is turning into a little nugget of gold,just keeps on giving

06Jun12 Car 30GS 1-0y HcapCh(12K) 11-6[7/1] 1st of 9 1 ½L to Heez A Steel (IRE) Matt Griffiths 122
08May12 Exe 23S 4y+ HcapHdl(7K) 9-11[9/2] 3rd of 15 7.00L behind Ruben Cotter (IRE) James Best
01May12 Exe 24H 5y+ HcapCh(5K) 11-4[7/2f] 1st of 7 26L to Tim The Chair (IRE) James Best 111
17Apr12 Exe 30GF 5y+ HcapCh(10K) 9-11[3/1f] 1st of 9 16L to Jolly Boys Outing (IRE) Matt Griffiths 94
04Apr12 Exe 23GF 4y+ HcapHdl(7K) 10-13[9/4] 2nd of 4 hd behind Magic Marmalade (IRE) Matt Griffiths 102
20Mar12 Exe 23G 4y+ HcapHdl(3K) 11-0[13/2] 1st of 8 ½L to Arctic Watch (GB)

Oh yeah, thank you amber! I was in boyles earlier and saw seasaffron was running and his name rang some bell so I thought - must have been a tip from somewhere so bet on him . You were that twinge! haha merci sir

[amberleaf]

for todays degeneracy going for Sober Sailor in the 6.45 in tipp,aj martin trained and ruby on board,ton of cash for it this morning.and also in the Uttoxeter 7.35,going for wellforth,connections have sent this horse over from ireland and is paul john gilligans only runner today,has mainly raced in ireland but has gone to england before to do a job,last time it was sent over it won @ 14/1 before falling in a race a month later,2nd last time out in cork over three miles,also has a grade 3 under its belt,would think a good run is expected,a little e/w double the order of the day!

http://www.irishracing.com/v5horseinfo?prt=302423

[amberleaf]

with the ground in tipperary getting softer,willie mullins Glens Melody is looking better and better in the bumper,very short at 4/5 but won very well in Punchestown in the muck in a much better race than this and must have a huge chance to keep the 100% record going in what looks to be a 3 horse race if even that,reckon the horse should be well odds on,could stick it in with the all blacks -17 v ireland for a 5/2(ish) shot.anyways anyone whos Interested in a bit of a Penalty kick its 4/5 with powers but not for long i think!

[Jaysoose]

easy peasy..nice shout

[amberleaf]

for todays degeneracy going for Sober Sailor in the 6.45 in tipp,aj martin trained and ruby on board,ton of cash for it this morning.and also in the Uttoxeter 7.35,going for wellforth,connections have sent this horse over from ireland and is paul john gilligans only runner today,has mainly raced in ireland but has gone to england before to do a job,last time it was sent over it won @ 14/1 before falling in a race a month later,2nd last time out in cork over three miles,also has a grade 3 under its belt,would think a good run is expected,a little e/w double the order of the day!

http://www.irishracing.com/v5horseinfo?prt=302423

with the ground in tipperary getting softer,willie mullins Glens Melody is looking better and better in the bumper,very short at 4/5 but won very well in Punchestown in the muck in a much better race than this and must have a huge chance to keep the 100% record going in what looks to be a 3 horse race if even that,reckon the horse should be well odds on,could stick it in with the all blacks -17 v ireland for a 5/2(ish) shot.anyways anyone whos Interested in a bit of a Penalty kick its 4/5 with powers but not for long i think!

hmm almost,Sober Sailor was backed into 9/4(took 4/1)but could only finish 3rd,wellforth won @ 4/1(took 5/1)so atleast the place double came up,glens Melody won @ 8/11 so not too bad i guess,also have nz -17 in a double,could have had a great day but overall,not too shabby

[amberleaf]

not sure if leopardstown will be racing with a inspection at 1 o clock,at the mo its heavy,just have to wait and see.
in the Nijinsky Stakes (6.35)o briens tower rock is getting well stuck into with the 11/4 long gone,into 2/1 at best now with most going 7/4,as a result most others are drifting a little and going for Coral Wave @ 5/1 e/w,will love the going(beat homecoming queen on heavy over 7 furlongs last year)will it stay the distance?..looking back at what the jockey &trainer had to say after winning a group 3 last year,reckon they know more than i do anyways


After race at Curragh Sun, 25th Sep, 2011 (1st) She loves that ground. She's changed a lot as she was a little bit free in the spring on her second run,. As of late she's gone the other way and is very relaxed. It opens up a lot of doors and I wouldn't be surprised if she got 1m4f next year. Declan said to me that he was sure he had me worried but always had a little bit up his sleeve. She was idling a bit. She had been a little free in the spring and the staff have done a great job settling her. She's still a little bit on the weak side and will go home to Grangecon now for the winter. P J Prendergast

in the 3 yo maiden going for Tonicsolfa @ 16s e/w,5th first time out,but breeding suggests the going will be fine,again distance not too sure about,but opened @ 20/1 this morning and was quickly backed into 16s,bit of a hail mary bet but in a maiden on this ground,who knows

two small e/w singles,and a wee e/w double the order of the day

[The Situation]

Just watched Newfangled's maiden win at Newmarket on Friday, very impressive looking type. I know I've banged on a lot about New Appraoch's progeny itt but he may well have sired two leading contenders for both Guineas next year with his first set of offspring.

[flushjee]

Nice run, unlucky, did it go of at 12's? Cheers

[Jaysoose]

agggh just ran out of puff at the finish..nice shout and decent even with the place money.

[connie147]

I told Doc earlier that I had the horn for one tomorrow in the Curragh so decided i'd share it here. The horse is Battleroftheboyne in the 3.20, a 6f handicap.

Three things underpin my liking for the horse tomorrow.
1. He is a 6f horse out and out
2. He loves the Curragh
3. He excels in really poor ground, the worse the better for him.

Tomorrow he has all 3 of these critical elements.

His for over 6f is 1, 1, 11, 2, 11, 3, 12
His form at the Curragh is 1, 1, 4, 12
His form on yielding or worse is 1, 1, 13, 11, 4, 7

His runs this year were 4th of 7 behind Coolnagree on yielding ground over 7f at the Curragh. On this occasion he attempted to make all but faded in the final furlong. The winner was rated 80 that day and is now rated 98.

He then had two runs over 6f at Dundalk. He was 2nd of 9 from a good draw and 11th of 14 from a bad draw (widest of all around the bend). One good run, one bad run which is easily forgiven. Whilst he handles Dundalk it doesn't replicate his optimum conditions.

He was then 7th of 11 over 5f in Tipperary, a trip I think is too short for him. That said it was won by Gordon Lord Byron off a mark of 90, he later won off 96 and was then 2nd in a listed race and now has a rating of 104. 2nd was Luisant who was 2nd to My Girl Anna ever since, 3rd was My Girl Anna who beat Luisant off 81 and was raised to 90, he was since a good 4th in the Curragh behing Harry Trotter. 4th place Madeira Man ran poor in the Curragh when starting favorite, 5th place was Knock Stars who was 4th to My Girl Anna and then won in Fairyhouse this week. Thats A Fret was 10th and ran very well in the Harry Trotter Curragh race - basically what I am saying here is that this was a cracking race so even while I see the 5f being too short it was still a credible run and certainly better than 7th of 11 might first suggest.

Next up he was 3rd of 11 in Naas over 6f on Good to Yielding behind Greek Canyon. A good run but he would have preferred worse ground. The winner was 3rd to Knock Stars nto, runner up was 9th in the Harry Trotter Race, 4th ran stink next time, and 5th was Harry Trotter who won a really competitive handicap in the Curragh as I have referenced above.

On his next run BoB was down the field on Gd (quick side of good imo) behind Harry Trotter at the Curragh.

So the horse has ran with great credit so far this year which confirms for me at least that he is in good form but tomorrow will be the first time he has his optimal conditions. On Friday the Curragh reported the ground as Heavy with a dry forecast with potential for showers so it looks certain to be soft ground at best and hopefully some element of heavy in it if we can get a shower overnight.

Am I saying this lad is a good thing, no I am not. But what I am saying is that at 11/1 with PP that he is significantly overpriced and is a cracking good each way bet. I personally would have him up at the front end of the market. I've already availed of it and am hoping for a few showers in Kildare tonight.

Good shout Noel. Thought he had it won. I reckon if the jockey had waited a bit longer he was home and hosed.

[shrapnel]

Nice run, unlucky, did it go of at 12's? Cheers

was out to 20s on betfair before the race.

great call Noel. so close!!!

[underachievement]

great shout all the same,winner got a dream run up the rail sure you musta used up your run good on the 4-1 russia win

[amberleaf]

that was unlucky,looked all over a winner,still 3/1 on the place not too shabby.

[amberleaf]

i

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[TheJiggaman]

I think Ainama is overpriced at 14/1 in Roscommon tomorrow evening.

Tilt bet €20 e/w on him. I never bet this much on horsies. Win plz

[amberleaf]

I think Ainama is overpriced at 14/1 in Roscommon tomorrow evening.

16/1 with pp,stuck it in with Legendary Times in the 7 o clock @ 9/1,first time racing at the track but had a look back at a few videos this morning and it seems to be very similar to gowran park which the horse likes,weight,distance look fine as well.a tenner e/w double,getting the bones of 19 hundred if they both pop up

[TheJiggaman]

I think Ainama is overpriced at 14/1 in Roscommon tomorrow evening.

Tilt bet €20 e/w on him. I never bet this much on horsies. Win plz

TYVM man. Appreciate it.

[underachievement]

best of luck with him..... hope WE all get sum fun outta him

[underachievement]

oh yea, shipped a 14/1 winner up there.

sigh,glanced at your post earlier n forgot about it n backed prince of milan when the late money came for it............then to compound my run bad had schevechenco picked to score 2 or more at 20's n changed it to ibrahamavic.........arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
great shout again tho,wp

[amberleaf]

I think Ainama is overpriced at 14/1 in Roscommon tomorrow evening.

16/1 with pp,stuck it in with Legendary Times in the 7 o clock @ 9/1,first time racing at the track but had a look back at a few videos this morning and it seems to be very similar to gowran park which the horse likes,weight,distance look fine as well.a tenner e/w double,getting the bones of 19 hundred if they both pop up

great call gab,Unfortunately the horse i doubled him with decided his best course of action was to have a little snooze in the stall before the start,before doing his pope impression party piece for the mugs who backed him(basically flopping out of the stalls and kissing the ground,before wondering why everyone else was running away from him)ah the joys of it!

[amberleaf]

Roscommon rained off,so for todays hoop-laaaa going for this go on ya good thing yankee

Jane Lachatte lingfield 3.15
Bravo Echo lingfield 3.50
Sarangoo salisbury 5.35
Comme Je Trouve southwell 6.10

all shamelessly nabbed from elsewhere

[spoofingjam]

I think Ainama is overpriced at 14/1 in Roscommon tomorrow evening.

Great work Noel, keep it up

[amberleaf]

why do i get the feeling,we'll see a much Improved Performance from Marcus Callaghans horse today

[amberleaf]

the horse won a 6 furlong hcp this time last year in navan,before going on to win over 5 on s/y in d/r on the 18th june last year,off 9-9 (r80, time 1.00)and has done sfa since,is today off 8-4 (r73).the form imo here points to Luisant,as you pointed out,on the 3rd of may,2nd on heavy over 5f(time 1.03)and with Battleroftheboyne more of a 6f horse and with some question marks over some the others on the going,could be nothing,but worth a little sniff @ the odds of 28/1 in what at the time a 8 runner hcp.

gone to 33/1,another donation it seems

[amberleaf]

quick reappearance tomorrow,worth a look?

[Thefonze]

Got word that Where's Danny will run well in this race. Blinkered first time and ground should be perfect. Smullen is still on top and it just looks like he will go close.

[Strewelpeter]

he is back into 0-80 class which is a big help. It isn't a great race but I cant help but feeling that Khaos is well overpriced at 11/1 in the race - If I back anything it will probably be him.

My Daughter is working down there with a runner in that race, I'll let you know if I hear anything. BTW she's very impressed with the owner of the runner they have there today, thinks he's a really nice guy, a real Gentleman were her exact words!

[amberleaf]

ended up sticking with b.o.b. e/w

[amberleaf]

just did a little e/w on Hold The Star in the 2.30 Wolverhampton @ 8/1,won well last time out over c & d in a maiden leaving all previous form behind and is rated just 59,with a fairly decent time at odds of 100/1.is up against better horses here but any improvement i think,could see it in the mix here and worth a small e/w at the price.

[westlife]

Pearl nation (5pm wolverhampton Take the 6/1 is available high street with ladbrokes) looks a free win bet each way

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=WOL_2012_06_07_07_1710

travelled like a decent horse last time out and every time the jock made a move, he got hampered /boxed in... Citizen Smith finished ahead of him (he is the one that badly hampered PN) but i will be surprised if he does not reverse that form and the 2 favs look fully exposed!

[Marsden02]

just did a little e/w on Hold The Star in the 2.30 Wolverhampton @ 8/1,won well last time out over c & d in a maiden leaving all previous form behind and is rated just 59,with a fairly decent time at odds of 100/1.is up against better horses here but any improvement i think,could see it in the mix here and worth a small e/w at the price.

Worst ride of a jockey i have ever seen

[The Situation]

Todays Ascot: Think both the Kings stand and St James' are weak renewals and worth looking down the field for a bit of value.

Like the 50's ew about Steppar Point in the Kings Stand, ran in pretty modest company last season, but stepped up at Chantilly lto finishing a length 1/2 second to Wizz Kid which imo makes him worth a nibble in a very weak group 1.

No superstars in the St James', siding with the supplemented Gabriel small each way @20:1 from a good draw.

All over Dawn Approach. Have been with him since his maiden, I like Bolgers bullishness about this race.

Too many right people siding with Elyaadi suggesting he's plotted for this one to ignore.

[amberleaf]

Worst ride of a jockey i have ever seen

meh,poor ride alright,poor horse as well tbh,going to keep it in the horse tracker list with a note about jockey bookings/ Market Confidence,never know might pop sometime.
just did a fiver yankee to keep me amused for the day

3.45 ascot, power @ 4/1
5.00 ascot, Simenon @13/2
6.50 sligo, Kateeva @ 4/1
9.00 brighton, royal box @ 4/1

past stats in the St James's Palace Stakes tells us the the market is a very good pointer in this,throw in the a.o.b factor,hard to walk away from it
in the Ascot Stakes simenon is the only mullins runner here,could do with a little more cut in the ground i think,but they did have a nice looking winner in cork over the weekend,stable is in great form
kattevas form line are great here,with Battleroftheboyne and my girl anna taking the eye over the past week or so,(September Lily a danger i think so did a little reverse forecast)
royal box seems to be coming into form,a few quid for it as well this morning
pays 9k when if ....ummmm when they all win

[jazzyfish]

15.03 ortensia
15.45 power
17.35 ajmany and i would also back simenon in the 17.35 on its own

[Caf]

Power and Dawn Approach to win, singles and a double for me.

Small e/w on Caledonia Lady @66/1. Almost definitely too much of a step up in class but has done me favours in the past and can't resist that big a price. Think Bated Breath is the one to beat in that though.

I'll more than likely have a small e/w bet on Gabrial too.

[Opr]

The one you posted in the BBV last night Caf into 2/1 now.

Opr