IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[amberleaf]

cheers for the Replies lads,much appreciated,in the little horse log i have,i have spent a total of 142.5 points with a profit of 15 points,i,ve come up with a roi of 9.5%,i'm Obviously calculating this wrong,any idea what the correct roi would be?

[Keane]

cheers for the Replies lads,much appreciated,in the little horse log i have,i have spent a total of 142.5 points with a profit of 15 points,i,ve come up with a roi of 9.5%,i'm Obviously calculating this wrong,any idea what the correct roi would be?

((Current BR/Initial Investment)-1)*100 afaik.

Your sample size is your only issue, especially in as high variance a game as I imagine backing long odds horses is. ROI would converge a lot quicker backing 10/11 rugby HCs.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[The Situation]

What happened to the aw log, can't even find it on here, you put me on to shawkantango from it, placed at 66s and won twice, think the prices were 13/2 and 5/1 but I could be wrong

It was only a winter log, and too much like effort keeping it updated, don't have a great deal of time on my hands of late either. Funnily enough was only recently pursueing shares in said horse.

Do love a bit of Chester though. Like Dickie's lad 5/1 in the 3.05 race, good draw which is neccesary especially over the shorter trips at Chester, his prominant style also very advantageous at this track, the tight bends make overtaking particularly difficult. Drop back in trip looks ideal based on his last two runs as well.

Chester cup looks wide open, Overturn must be a joy to own, but has to overcome a widish draw, ground that's probably a bit softer than he'd like, his age and a hefty weight, if any horse was to do it it would probably be him but I'd be taking it on with Tominator 12/1 and Eternal Heart 18/1 both ew.

[The Situation]

That is how you ride Chester! Very good from Norton.

[The Situation]

Wow, flag start instead of stalls in the Chester Cup, changes everything *disgruntled punter*!

[Pat Mustard]

Badger or bust meant to have a chance in the apprentice race in naas this evening, changed trainer and they reckon he's on a winnable mark even though it hasn't won in like 3 years. Good apprentice on board too 14/1 with bet365

[mdoug]

Is there any way of checking results from San Isidro or kenilworth online?

Also for other foreign races for the futute but just want san isidro for today is all

[mdoug]

Miss Patyno won the 7.05 race @ 4/9 if that helps

no :'( :'( - was only a tiny bet tbh but I just meant in general anyway. I only ever use attheraces which only has uk and ireland so was just wondering if there was others with fast results. Cheers anyway gab

[Opr]

http://www.sportinglife.com/

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Results/

Opr

[amberleaf]

if form lines are anything to go by,could be worth looking at a horse called my girl anna next sunday in the 3.05 navan,below is the result of a 6 furlong hcp ran at naas on the 21st apr. with the form working out very well

1st Maarek (GB) 10-0 (Lisbunny Syndicate) (Time 1:12.82) 2 (Drawn 2)
(Morning price: 4/1 7/2 3/1) (Opened 100/30) SP 11/4fav Tote Win €3.80 Place €1.90
David Peter Nagle
W M Lordan
dwelt, towards rear, progress 2f out, challenged in 2nd over 1f out, soon led and stayed on well
2nd ½L Gordon Lord Byron (IRE) 9-5 (Morgan J Cahalan) (Time 1:12.93) 7 (Drawn 7)
(Morning price: 8/1) (Opened 9/1) SP 12/1 Place €4.40
T Hogan
F M Berry
dwelt, towards rear, headway to chase leaders over 1f out, challenged and every chance inside final furlong, kept on well without getting to winner
3rd hd My Girl Anna (IRE) 8-10 (J M O'Riordan) (Time 1:12.96) 3 (Drawn 3)
(Morning price: 14/1) (Opened 25/1) SP 16/1 Place €3.70
Muredach Kelly
R P Cleary
soon prominent, on terms from halfway, soon led, headed under 1f out, kept on


Maarek went on to win in newmarket since,Gordon Lord Byron has won in tipp (with my girl anna a lgt 3rd) and then went on win in cork,is off 8-9 on sunday,worth a little e/w sniff if the price is right!

[jazzyfish]

hey guys was giving to winners for today and another one in flying form all at york
2.00 crackentorp 20-1 2.30 harris tweed 3-1 3.00 laught out loud 3-1

[amberleaf]

hey guys was giving to winners for today and another one in flying form all at york
2.00 crackentorp 20-1 2.30 harris tweed 3-1 3.00 laught out loud 3-1

cheers jazz,did a tiny reverse forecast on crackentorp and Very Good Day(16/1) in the 2 o clock, crackentorp has some nice form in york,looks value,good spot!

[FeetMagic]

Went deep on the lot, let's do this thing!

[jazzyfish]

Went deep on the lot, let's do this thing!

ye i have a nice trixi on myself fingers crossed this time as maybe let me down for 50k last time

[The Situation]

Harris Tweed is a bit of a mudlark, race course doesn't particularly suit his style either. His price looks spot on on good ground today, very trappy betting heat in that race.

[Jaysoose]

hey guys was giving to winners for today and another one in flying form all at york
2.00 crackentorp 20-1 2.30 harris tweed 3-1 3.00 laught out loud 3-1

Nice shout..though crackentorp was gonna do it..still good ew money though.

[flushjee]

It was like the jockey gave up with 1/2 furlong to go, still decent e/w though

[Thefonze]

ye i have a nice trixi on myself fingers crossed this time as maybe let me down for 50k last time

What happened as seems a lot of cash for a 13/8 fav.

[The Situation]

What happened as seems a lot of cash for a 13/8 fav.

Not going to divulge much info but the right money was on Homecoming Queen.

[Thefonze]

Not going to divulge much info but the right money was on Homecoming Queen.

I know the money was on this filly at leop the time before. I hear that Maybe will still win the oaks.

[FeetMagic]

Cheers jazzyfish will pay for a night out!

[Strewelpeter]

Elusive dancer ew in Fundalk now

[Strewelpeter]

Ooops!

[Percy007]

Henry Cecil's superstar is unbeaten in his nine outings so it's no surprise that Frankel is the red hot favourite in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury tomorrow. After having performances that have been described as 'barley believable', tomorrow's offer may not be our wisest move as we could have our satchels emptied.

As of 8.30am Saturday, we're going...
1/2 Frankel in the 3.40 Newbury

Early start tomorrow then.

[amberleaf]

if form lines are anything to go by,could be worth looking at a horse called my girl anna next sunday in the 3.05 navan,below is the result of a 6 furlong hcp ran at naas on the 21st apr. with the form working out very well

1st Maarek (GB) 10-0 (Lisbunny Syndicate) (Time 1:12.82) 2 (Drawn 2)
(Morning price: 4/1 7/2 3/1) (Opened 100/30) SP 11/4fav Tote Win €3.80 Place €1.90
David Peter Nagle
W M Lordan
dwelt, towards rear, progress 2f out, challenged in 2nd over 1f out, soon led and stayed on well
2nd ½L Gordon Lord Byron (IRE) 9-5 (Morgan J Cahalan) (Time 1:12.93) 7 (Drawn 7)
(Morning price: 8/1) (Opened 9/1) SP 12/1 Place €4.40
T Hogan
F M Berry
dwelt, towards rear, headway to chase leaders over 1f out, challenged and every chance inside final furlong, kept on well without getting to winner
3rd hd My Girl Anna (IRE) 8-10 (J M O'Riordan) (Time 1:12.96) 3 (Drawn 3)
(Morning price: 14/1) (Opened 25/1) SP 16/1 Place €3.70
Muredach Kelly
R P Cleary
soon prominent, on terms from halfway, soon led, headed under 1f out, kept on


Maarek went on to win in newmarket since,Gordon Lord Byron has won in tipp (with my girl anna a lgt 3rd) and then went on win in cork,is off 8-9 on sunday,worth a little e/w sniff if the price is right!

worth a small e/w @ 6/1 i'd reckon!

[amberleaf]

if form lines are anything to go by,could be worth looking at a horse called my girl anna next sunday in the 3.05 navan,below is the result of a 6 furlong hcp ran at naas on the 21st apr. with the form working out very well

1st Maarek (GB) 10-0 (Lisbunny Syndicate) (Time 1:12.82) 2 (Drawn 2)
(Morning price: 4/1 7/2 3/1) (Opened 100/30) SP 11/4fav Tote Win €3.80 Place €1.90
David Peter Nagle
W M Lordan
dwelt, towards rear, progress 2f out, challenged in 2nd over 1f out, soon led and stayed on well
2nd ½L Gordon Lord Byron (IRE) 9-5 (Morgan J Cahalan) (Time 1:12.93) 7 (Drawn 7)
(Morning price: 8/1) (Opened 9/1) SP 12/1 Place €4.40
T Hogan
F M Berry
dwelt, towards rear, headway to chase leaders over 1f out, challenged and every chance inside final furlong, kept on well without getting to winner
3rd hd My Girl Anna (IRE) 8-10 (J M O'Riordan) (Time 1:12.96) 3 (Drawn 3)
(Morning price: 14/1) (Opened 25/1) SP 16/1 Place €3.70
Muredach Kelly
R P Cleary
soon prominent, on terms from halfway, soon led, headed under 1f out, kept on


Maarek went on to win in newmarket since,Gordon Lord Byron has won in tipp (with my girl anna a lgt 3rd) and then went on win in cork,is off 8-9 on sunday,worth a little e/w sniff if the price is right!

form working out well indeed, won by a nose

[amberleaf]

see willie mullins has three in the bumper,could be worth looking at Glens Melody for a bit of a shot in the dark bet,never raced in public but can be got at 12/1,the breeding here looks intersting (King's Theatre (IRE) - Glens Music (IRE)),glens music won Multable races on soft/yeilding for some very decent prize money,might be worth a little e/w bet at handy odds

see this is out in the bumper in sligo,wont be much of a price but worth a look in the morning

[amberleaf]

see willie mullins has three in the bumper,could be worth looking at Glens Melody for a bit of a shot in the dark bet,never raced in public but can be got at 12/1,the breeding here looks intersting (King's Theatre (IRE) - Glens Music (IRE)),glens music won Multable races on soft/yeilding for some very decent prize money,might be worth a little e/w bet at handy odds

see this is out in the bumper in sligo,wont be much of a price but worth a look in the morning

meh 5/6,most Probably win but with the soft ground a factor last time out and the good ground today,be as well off leaving it alone,
might have spotted something for the weekend at the Curragh,stick it up here when more info is known!

[Pat Mustard]

Bean chroi briste is meant to have an each way chance in Sligo, got a call about it but your man who rang me is a bit hit and miss, thinks it 20/1

[Pat Mustard]

Bean chroi briste is meant to have an each way chance in Sligo, got a call about it but your man who rang me is a bit hit and miss, thinks it 20/1

* rear of mid-division, 11th approaching 3 out, ridden to chase leaders from next, kept on without getting there run-in
6
*nk 15.*BEAN CHROI BHRISTEATR Tracker 14/1 9*10 - 5
P W Flood
M Flannery
102
* waited with in mid-division, good headway from 3 out, close up next, challenged last, hampered and kept on same pace run-in

Only beaten a neck and a short head for the place money, guy who rang me said the trainer was a bit disappointed with the run , one for the tracker on good ground in this kind of race

[The Situation]

Can't see the 12's lasting on Daddy Long Legs for the Irish 2000!

[Wesley Harms]

Can't see the 12's lasting on Daddy Long Legs for the Irish 2000!

Horses don't win classics off the back of a run like his last one. He's a million

[The Situation]

Horses don't win classics off the back of a run like his last one. He's a million

Roderick o Conner won it last season after a 38 length loss in his previous race!

[Wesley Harms]

Roderick o Conner won it last season after a 38 length loss in his previous race!

He was scared of Frankel so he wanted to stay back there

[The Situation]

He was scared of Frankel so he wanted to stay back there

Heh, you should have at least researched the last few classics before making such a bold statement! It's clear from DLL two runs in Churchill Downs that he hates the dirt, the tapeta stuff he won the UAE derby on is a lot firmer and would be a better indicator of to the likely surface at the curragh after a week of warm dry weather.

[Wesley Harms]

Heh, you should have at least researched the last few classics before making such a bold statement! It's clear from DLL two runs in Churchill Downs that he hates the dirt, the tapeta stuff he won the UAE derby on is a lot firmer and would be a better indicator of to the likely surface at the curragh after a week of warm dry weather.

I totally disregarded the English 2000 guineas as it was a farce.

[Percy007]

Been told to have a dabble on Blarney Kestrel tonight at Tipp, Source usually ok.

[NewApproach]

Just had a look around the 2000 Guineas tomorrow.

I am told that Parish Hall was a very doubtful runner as he worked deplorable during the week so I will scratch him even if JSB is giving him a proper talk up. I think Power should be a million. Hermival wants it up to his ears.

The two I would be focusing on are Takar and Trumpet Major. I think Takar will be much better on the good ground. He stopped like he was shot when asked for his effort on bad ground on debut after travelling like an aeroplane up to that point - I think he has got away with rather than loved the ground on his two runs since then. Trumpet Major is being somewhat overlooked and will certainly improve for the better ground.

I really like Trumpet major in this too. I also think he could be very well backed tomorrow.

[Wesley Harms]

Parish Hall out of Guineas, still 5.4 on betfair

[Percy007]

Parish Hall out of Guineas, still 5.4 on betfair

At The Races @AtTheRaces
Parish Hall out of Irish 2,000 Guineas, hind leg infection.

[NuckChorris]

Anything else for the Curragh lads? There now.

[jazzyfish]

Anything else for the Curragh lads? There now.

sorry lads only making it online now had a few winners to start the day but have another 2 still to go 5.15 in haydock three am tour and sweetlighting in the 4.20 curragh

[jazzyfish]

I really like Trumpet major in this too. I also think he could be very well backed tomorrow.

power was a sirt in this

[jazzyfish]

What time is this tip running at? I'd like to back him.

to late sorry he already pissed in

[Pat Mustard]

Just had a look around the 2000 Guineas tomorrow.

I am told that Parish Hall was a very doubtful runner as he worked deplorable during the week so I will scratch him even if JSB is giving him a proper talk up. I think Power should be a million. Hermival wants it up to his ears.

The two I would be focusing on are Takar and Trumpet Major. I think Takar will be much better on the good ground. He stopped like he was shot when asked for his effort on bad ground on debut after travelling like an aeroplane up to that point - I think he has got away with rather than loved the ground on his two runs since then. Trumpet Major is being somewhat overlooked and will certainly improve for the better ground.

lol if i'd see this i would have had more on power, its the gimmeabreak jinx, whats worse on the this thread is people actually listen to you, havent seen you up put up a winner yet....but hey i'm just as bad...ah well you threw up 3 or 4 horses in a handicap one time and one of them won. wp sir

[jazzyfish]

sorry lads only making it online now had a few winners to start the day but have another 2 still to go 5.15 in haydock three am tour and sweetlighting in the 4.20 curragh

sweetlighting a big let down

[Marsden02]

was in great position and just didnt go.

[jazzyfish]

was in great position and just didnt go.

ye a bit sick but dont let that put ye of the other one as i was told this would win hopefully things work out

[Dice75]

sweetlighting a big let down

Glor na Mara was a sirt in this.

[amberleaf]

in the Curragh 305.have a look at Backbench Blues,is in the form of its life,below is what the trainer said after its last win on the 21st apr.

“He'll go 1m2f and probably in time a mile and a half. He is like all those Big Bad Bobs, he is never beaten. He'll go handicapping now and we'll take it from there. If there's a 1m2f handicap at The Curragh on Guineas weekend, that would suit as the owner (Cristina Patino, Anamoine Stud) is coming over.”

priced up at 10/3!

[The Situation]

Pity slow you think isn't facing much in the way of group 1 rivals at the Curragh today. Arguably the most overhyped horse in training last few years.

[NewApproach]

Pity slow you think isn't facing much in the way of group 1 rivals at the Curragh today. Arguably the most overhyped horse in training last few years.

Agreed he has generally been very overhyped but that was a very impressive performance today imo

[amberleaf]

see in the bumper in Ballinrobe,cork trainer eugene o sullivan has sent up a horse called Midsummer Drama,the breeding looks good( King's Theatre (IRE) - What An Answer),has run under rules just one time finishing down the field in Punchestown on heavy,but whats Interesting is that it won a point to point in quakerstown on the 8th of apr on good ground,with some decent looking horses behind,(3rd that day was Some Benefit,who has since finished a 4 lgt. 4th under rules)with the ground on the good to firm,could see a good run from this one and is priced up @ 14/1,from 16s.... worth a little e/w bet imo

[amberleaf]

see in the bumper in Ballinrobe,cork trainer eugene o sullivan has sent up a horse called Midsummer Drama,the breeding looks good( King's Theatre (IRE) - What An Answer),has run under rules just one time finishing down the field in Punchestown on heavy,but whats Interesting is that it won a point to point in quakerstown on the 8th of apr on good ground,with some decent looking horses behind,(3rd that day was Some Benefit,who has since finished a 4 lgt. 4th under rules)with the ground on the good to firm,could see a good run from this one and is priced up @ 14/1,from 16s.... worth a little e/w bet imo

seems to be a few quid for this one,pays your money-takes your chance, i suppose

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ballinrobe/21:00/winner/bet-history/midsummer-drama/today

[amberleaf]

see in the bumper in Ballinrobe,cork trainer eugene o sullivan has sent up a horse called Midsummer Drama,the breeding looks good( King's Theatre (IRE) - What An Answer),has run under rules just one time finishing down the field in Punchestown on heavy,but whats Interesting is that it won a point to point in quakerstown on the 8th of apr on good ground,with some decent looking horses behind,(3rd that day was Some Benefit,who has since finished a 4 lgt. 4th under rules)with the ground on the good to firm,could see a good run from this one and is priced up @ 14/1,from 16s.... worth a little e/w bet imo

meh 3rd,she gave it a good old go,one of these days eh

[Pat Mustard]

Lightning spirit is meant to win tomorrow in Brighton, just back from punches town , same guy who gave me a j. Culloty tip a few weeks ago, sure to add my great record on this thread

[tipp86]

Lightning spirit is meant to win tomorrow in Brighton, just back from punches town , same guy who gave me a j. Culloty tip a few weeks ago, sure to add my great record on this thread

Had 27 in the BF account so threw the 7 on i was close to lashing the lot on.

[amberleaf]

john oxx has just two runners in down royal to day,Wasabis House in the 705 could be the one to side with,has only ever run in dundalk before,but todays ground looks like it will suit due to the breeding(good ground winners on both sides),a few quid for it in the market as well this morning.is 6/1 now and well worth a e/w bet

also in the 605 nurse ryan could be worth a look,but only if the money comes for it,is up a little in the weights today and the good/firm might be a little too quick,but was entered into a few races this weekend and ended up here,and was by no means harshly treated last time out,according to o/c is 12/1 but going to wait and see what happens!

also having a small reverse forecast on Salsify and Zemsky in the Stratford 8.20

[The Situation]

Amber your understanding of handicapping seems to be poor. Nurse Ryans offical rating is the same as last race, the higher weight in todays race is because he's one of the higher rated as it's only a 80-109 race compared to the 81-116 race last time out. You should be focussing more on the horses OR rather than the actual weight in any giving race and whether you think the horse is unexposed at the mark it's on or whether the handicapper has it within his grips.