cheers for the Replies lads,much appreciated,in the little horse log i have,i have spent a total of 142.5 points with a profit of 15 points,i,ve come up with a roi of 9.5%,i'm Obviously calculating this wrong,any idea what the correct roi would be?
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IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postcheers for the Replies lads,much appreciated,in the little horse log i have,i have spent a total of 142.5 points with a profit of 15 points,i,ve come up with a roi of 9.5%,i'm Obviously calculating this wrong,any idea what the correct roi would be?
Your sample size is your only issue, especially in as high variance a game as I imagine backing long odds horses is. ROI would converge a lot quicker backing 10/11 rugby HCs.
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Originally posted by Pat Mustard View PostWhat happened to the aw log, can't even find it on here, you put me on to shawkantango from it, placed at 66s and won twice, think the prices were 13/2 and 5/1 but I could be wrong
Do love a bit of Chester though. Like Dickie's lad 5/1 in the 3.05 race, good draw which is neccesary especially over the shorter trips at Chester, his prominant style also very advantageous at this track, the tight bends make overtaking particularly difficult. Drop back in trip looks ideal based on his last two runs as well.
Chester cup looks wide open, Overturn must be a joy to own, but has to overcome a widish draw, ground that's probably a bit softer than he'd like, his age and a hefty weight, if any horse was to do it it would probably be him but I'd be taking it on with Tominator 12/1 and Eternal Heart 18/1 both ew.Last edited by The Situation; 09-05-12, 10:26.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakMiss Patyno won the 7.05 race @ 4/9 if that helpsGo big or go homeless.
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if form lines are anything to go by,could be worth looking at a horse called my girl anna next sunday in the 3.05 navan,below is the result of a 6 furlong hcp ran at naas on the 21st apr. with the form working out very well
1st Maarek (GB) 10-0 (Lisbunny Syndicate) (Time 1:12.82) 2 (Drawn 2)
(Morning price: 4/1 7/2 3/1) (Opened 100/30) SP 11/4fav Tote Win €3.80 Place €1.90
David Peter Nagle
W M Lordan
dwelt, towards rear, progress 2f out, challenged in 2nd over 1f out, soon led and stayed on well
2nd ½L Gordon Lord Byron (IRE) 9-5 (Morgan J Cahalan) (Time 1:12.93) 7 (Drawn 7)
(Morning price: 8/1) (Opened 9/1) SP 12/1 Place €4.40
T Hogan
F M Berry
dwelt, towards rear, headway to chase leaders over 1f out, challenged and every chance inside final furlong, kept on well without getting to winner
3rd hd My Girl Anna (IRE) 8-10 (J M O'Riordan) (Time 1:12.96) 3 (Drawn 3)
(Morning price: 14/1) (Opened 25/1) SP 16/1 Place €3.70
Muredach Kelly
R P Cleary
soon prominent, on terms from halfway, soon led, headed under 1f out, kept on
Maarek went on to win in newmarket since,Gordon Lord Byron has won in tipp (with my girl anna a lgt 3rd) and then went on win in cork,is off 8-9 on sunday,worth a little e/w sniff if the price is right!Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by jazzyfish View Posthey guys was giving to winners for today and another one in flying form all at york
2.00 crackentorp 20-1 2.30 harris tweed 3-1 3.00 laught out loud 3-1Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by Will Hills;Henry Cecil's superstar is unbeaten in his nine outings so it's no surprise that Frankel is the red hot favourite in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury tomorrow. After having performances that have been described as 'barley believable', tomorrow's offer may not be our wisest move as we could have our satchels emptied.
As of 8.30am Saturday, we're going...
1/2 Frankel in the 3.40 Newbury
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postif form lines are anything to go by,could be worth looking at a horse called my girl anna next sunday in the 3.05 navan,below is the result of a 6 furlong hcp ran at naas on the 21st apr. with the form working out very well
1st Maarek (GB) 10-0 (Lisbunny Syndicate) (Time 1:12.82) 2 (Drawn 2)
(Morning price: 4/1 7/2 3/1) (Opened 100/30) SP 11/4fav Tote Win €3.80 Place €1.90
David Peter Nagle
W M Lordan
dwelt, towards rear, progress 2f out, challenged in 2nd over 1f out, soon led and stayed on well
2nd ½L Gordon Lord Byron (IRE) 9-5 (Morgan J Cahalan) (Time 1:12.93) 7 (Drawn 7)
(Morning price: 8/1) (Opened 9/1) SP 12/1 Place €4.40
T Hogan
F M Berry
dwelt, towards rear, headway to chase leaders over 1f out, challenged and every chance inside final furlong, kept on well without getting to winner
3rd hd My Girl Anna (IRE) 8-10 (J M O'Riordan) (Time 1:12.96) 3 (Drawn 3)
(Morning price: 14/1) (Opened 25/1) SP 16/1 Place €3.70
Muredach Kelly
R P Cleary
soon prominent, on terms from halfway, soon led, headed under 1f out, kept on
Maarek went on to win in newmarket since,Gordon Lord Byron has won in tipp (with my girl anna a lgt 3rd) and then went on win in cork,is off 8-9 on sunday,worth a little e/w sniff if the price is right!Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postif form lines are anything to go by,could be worth looking at a horse called my girl anna next sunday in the 3.05 navan,below is the result of a 6 furlong hcp ran at naas on the 21st apr. with the form working out very well
1st Maarek (GB) 10-0 (Lisbunny Syndicate) (Time 1:12.82) 2 (Drawn 2)
(Morning price: 4/1 7/2 3/1) (Opened 100/30) SP 11/4fav Tote Win €3.80 Place €1.90
David Peter Nagle
W M Lordan
dwelt, towards rear, progress 2f out, challenged in 2nd over 1f out, soon led and stayed on well
2nd ½L Gordon Lord Byron (IRE) 9-5 (Morgan J Cahalan) (Time 1:12.93) 7 (Drawn 7)
(Morning price: 8/1) (Opened 9/1) SP 12/1 Place €4.40
T Hogan
F M Berry
dwelt, towards rear, headway to chase leaders over 1f out, challenged and every chance inside final furlong, kept on well without getting to winner
3rd hd My Girl Anna (IRE) 8-10 (J M O'Riordan) (Time 1:12.96) 3 (Drawn 3)
(Morning price: 14/1) (Opened 25/1) SP 16/1 Place €3.70
Muredach Kelly
R P Cleary
soon prominent, on terms from halfway, soon led, headed under 1f out, kept on
Maarek went on to win in newmarket since,Gordon Lord Byron has won in tipp (with my girl anna a lgt 3rd) and then went on win in cork,is off 8-9 on sunday,worth a little e/w sniff if the price is right!Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postsee willie mullins has three in the bumper,could be worth looking at Glens Melody for a bit of a shot in the dark bet,never raced in public but can be got at 12/1,the breeding here looks intersting (King's Theatre (IRE) - Glens Music (IRE)),glens music won Multable races on soft/yeilding for some very decent prize money,might be worth a little e/w bet at handy oddsMattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postsee willie mullins has three in the bumper,could be worth looking at Glens Melody for a bit of a shot in the dark bet,never raced in public but can be got at 12/1,the breeding here looks intersting (King's Theatre (IRE) - Glens Music (IRE)),glens music won Multable races on soft/yeilding for some very decent prize money,might be worth a little e/w bet at handy oddsOriginally posted by amberleaf View Postsee this is out in the bumper in sligo,wont be much of a price but worth a look in the morning
might have spotted something for the weekend at the Curragh,stick it up here when more info is known!Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by Pat Mustard View PostBean chroi briste is meant to have an each way chance in Sligo, got a call about it but your man who rang me is a bit hit and miss, thinks it 20/1
6
*nk 15.*BEAN CHROI BHRISTEATR Tracker 14/1 9*10 - 5
P W Flood
M Flannery
102
* waited with in mid-division, good headway from 3 out, close up next, challenged last, hampered and kept on same pace run-in
Only beaten a neck and a short head for the place money, guy who rang me said the trainer was a bit disappointed with the run , one for the tracker on good ground in this kind of raceJayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers
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Originally posted by Howard Finkel View PostHe was scared of Frankel so he wanted to stay back thereProfit before people.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostHeh, you should have at least researched the last few classics before making such a bold statement! It's clear from DLL two runs in Churchill Downs that he hates the dirt, the tapeta stuff he won the UAE derby on is a lot firmer and would be a better indicator of to the likely surface at the curragh after a week of warm dry weather.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakJust had a look around the 2000 Guineas tomorrow.
I am told that Parish Hall was a very doubtful runner as he worked deplorable during the week so I will scratch him even if JSB is giving him a proper talk up. I think Power should be a million. Hermival wants it up to his ears.
The two I would be focusing on are Takar and Trumpet Major. I think Takar will be much better on the good ground. He stopped like he was shot when asked for his effort on bad ground on debut after travelling like an aeroplane up to that point - I think he has got away with rather than loved the ground on his two runs since then. Trumpet Major is being somewhat overlooked and will certainly improve for the better ground.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakJust had a look around the 2000 Guineas tomorrow.
I am told that Parish Hall was a very doubtful runner as he worked deplorable during the week so I will scratch him even if JSB is giving him a proper talk up. I think Power should be a million. Hermival wants it up to his ears.
The two I would be focusing on are Takar and Trumpet Major. I think Takar will be much better on the good ground. He stopped like he was shot when asked for his effort on bad ground on debut after travelling like an aeroplane up to that point - I think he has got away with rather than loved the ground on his two runs since then. Trumpet Major is being somewhat overlooked and will certainly improve for the better ground.Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers
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in the Curragh 305.have a look at Backbench Blues,is in the form of its life,below is what the trainer said after its last win on the 21st apr.
“He'll go 1m2f and probably in time a mile and a half. He is like all those Big Bad Bobs, he is never beaten. He'll go handicapping now and we'll take it from there. If there's a 1m2f handicap at The Curragh on Guineas weekend, that would suit as the owner (Cristina Patino, Anamoine Stud) is coming over.”
priced up at 10/3!Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostPity slow you think isn't facing much in the way of group 1 rivals at the Curragh today. Arguably the most overhyped horse in training last few years.
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see in the bumper in Ballinrobe,cork trainer eugene o sullivan has sent up a horse called Midsummer Drama,the breeding looks good( King's Theatre (IRE) - What An Answer),has run under rules just one time finishing down the field in Punchestown on heavy,but whats Interesting is that it won a point to point in quakerstown on the 8th of apr on good ground,with some decent looking horses behind,(3rd that day was Some Benefit,who has since finished a 4 lgt. 4th under rules)with the ground on the good to firm,could see a good run from this one and is priced up @ 14/1,from 16s.... worth a little e/w bet imoMattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postsee in the bumper in Ballinrobe,cork trainer eugene o sullivan has sent up a horse called Midsummer Drama,the breeding looks good( King's Theatre (IRE) - What An Answer),has run under rules just one time finishing down the field in Punchestown on heavy,but whats Interesting is that it won a point to point in quakerstown on the 8th of apr on good ground,with some decent looking horses behind,(3rd that day was Some Benefit,who has since finished a 4 lgt. 4th under rules)with the ground on the good to firm,could see a good run from this one and is priced up @ 14/1,from 16s.... worth a little e/w bet imo
Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postsee in the bumper in Ballinrobe,cork trainer eugene o sullivan has sent up a horse called Midsummer Drama,the breeding looks good( King's Theatre (IRE) - What An Answer),has run under rules just one time finishing down the field in Punchestown on heavy,but whats Interesting is that it won a point to point in quakerstown on the 8th of apr on good ground,with some decent looking horses behind,(3rd that day was Some Benefit,who has since finished a 4 lgt. 4th under rules)with the ground on the good to firm,could see a good run from this one and is priced up @ 14/1,from 16s.... worth a little e/w bet imoMattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by Pat Mustard View PostLightning spirit is meant to win tomorrow in Brighton, just back from punches town , same guy who gave me a j. Culloty tip a few weeks ago, sure to add my great record on this threadPm for rakeback deals
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john oxx has just two runners in down royal to day,Wasabis House in the 705 could be the one to side with,has only ever run in dundalk before,but todays ground looks like it will suit due to the breeding(good ground winners on both sides),a few quid for it in the market as well this morning.is 6/1 now and well worth a e/w bet
also in the 605 nurse ryan could be worth a look,but only if the money comes for it,is up a little in the weights today and the good/firm might be a little too quick,but was entered into a few races this weekend and ended up here,and was by no means harshly treated last time out,according to o/c is 12/1 but going to wait and see what happens!
also having a small reverse forecast on Salsify and Zemsky in the Stratford 8.20Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Amber your understanding of handicapping seems to be poor. Nurse Ryans offical rating is the same as last race, the higher weight in todays race is because he's one of the higher rated as it's only a 80-109 race compared to the 81-116 race last time out. You should be focussing more on the horses OR rather than the actual weight in any giving race and whether you think the horse is unexposed at the mark it's on or whether the handicapper has it within his grips.Profit before people.
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