It is any race I think, just wondering if the aim for an 'easier' race because of it
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IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)
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People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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Originally posted by elbows View PostThistlecrack out injuredPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakDid you read my post, you do know what does drawing dead means?People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostGimmeabreak why don't you hop off that fence and enlighten us as to where you think Let's Dance will run??
DP said he strongly fancied it for a race and GAB advised that it would not run in that race ( in his own inimitable way). It may have been too late for DP but it may have saved others from following in.
You have more information than you started the day with, you should be happy.
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Well the only information I have is that apparently Lets Dance won't be running in the Neptune. It makes no difference to me. And it's not really going to save many others as PP and Boyles are non runner no bet.
If he is not a liberty to say on a public forum where the horse will run then why come on here and rule it out of a race especially when people can easily get non runner no bet ??
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostYeah that's true. He should be charging for that kind of info not posting it for free.
Doesn't stop me hoping against hope.
I was mainly just interested in how the race was chosen, hence wondering if the bonus came into consideration when choosing the race
I made my bet as Lets Dance crossed the line in leopardtown last month, always the risk with antepostPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostGimmeabreak why don't you hop off that fence and enlighten us as to where you think Let's Dance will run??
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Originally posted by NewApproach View PostHe should really walk away from the fence altogether, seems to me anytime he gives an inch on this forum people moan they didn't get a mile.
It's not like I was looking for a tip as I won't be having a meaningful bet on any novice race at the Festival but merely viewing them as a trial for next years Festival.
There is a decent tip for you.Last edited by angle_grinder; 21-02-17, 22:39.
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Thanks for taking the time to post an opinion.
Personally I think Lets Dance will play the role of super sub much like VVM last year.
If Mullins thinks he can win the Mares Novice with Airlie Beach and aims VVM at the Mares then what's to lose letting LD have a crack at the Neptune. If either of those don't make it to those targets then LD could be rerouted.
So you could Dutch them both for the Mares Novice and you might get the winner and money back on the non-runner.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakIf you are asking this question then you really need to reflect on it for a few moments and consider the answer to it.
If Ruby and Willie feel they can win the Mares Novice with Airlie Beach then what do they have to gain by running Lets Dance in the same race?
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakNow that is a completely different question. It is also very easy to answer.
If Airlie Beach Runs and Lets Dance does not then she will be Evens (50%), add in a few WPM back numbers it probably equates to a 55% to 60% chance of WPM winning the race.
If Airlie Beach and Lets Dance run and say they are 6/4 pickem plus some back numbers it equates to a c.80% - 85% chance of WPM winning the race.
So what do they have to gain by running? Well WPM improves his implied chance of winning the race by 25%.
I don't usually give out this many lessons for free so my best advice is stop staring into the corner and your own echo chamber, turn around and open your mind to some more critical assessment.
Ok so it gives him a better chance of winning the Mares Novice, I'm sure him and Ruby lie awake thinking of winning this new prestigious race, but it also reduces his chances of overall winners.
My mind is always open to assessment and others peoples opinions. High on the list are Gary O' Brien, Kevin O' Ryan, Kevin Blake and Lydia Hislop as they offer top quality comprehensive analysis.
They never talk about basic maths either.
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All of this back and forth should be giving you lads a good appetite for the true test of Cheltenham tipping genius.
For a mere €50, you can pit your opinions against GAB's and give him a good beatdown. And win vast* sums of cash into the bargain.
Sign up today, places limited**.
*well, maybe €1500 on a good day
**not"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
They never talk about basic maths either.
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostNice to see you getting into your preCheltenham online dustup GAB. Part of the tradition here at this stage. Hopefully followed soon by your traditional ante-post good thing?
Kind of reminds me of when the poker advice was dished out on boards.ie.*** It was always done with *a hint of arrogance and disdain and *you had to take that on the chin or the beneficiaries of the advice would come down on you hard.
I suppose it’s fair enough but still for some it’s hard to be condescended to like that even if it is for profit. **Gab knows his stuff inside out so for those taking the gambol his info is golden.
*
All I want to know is which is the best outsider for me big bet at Chelts. **I’m still recovering from Wayward Lad losses . (gawd I loved that horsie)
Rd123 .I'm in to donate the 50 quid.
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostIts not really a lesson its just very basic maths so you can't get away with charging for that..
You asked a straight forward question (why enter two horses?) and got a straight forward answer (improves their chances).
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Knockmaole Boy
Limini
Sheelbeallright
for today.
Singles and a hopeful treble
Also a wee ew punt on A RatedPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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No point continuing this debate as too many Gimmeabreak cheerleaders after getting in on it.
It will be settled in three weeks anyway.
Raoul Duke,thanks for the offer but I will pass. My knowledge of the handicap races is non existent so I would have no chance of winning.
Fair play to you for organising it there is a bit of work in it I would say.
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostNo point continuing this debate as too many Gimmeabreak cheerleaders after getting in on it.
It will be settled in three weeks anyway.
Raoul Duke,thanks for the offer but I will pass. My knowledge of the handicap races is non existent so I would have no chance of winning.
Fair play to you for organising it there is a bit of work in it I would say.
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostNo point continuing this debate as too many Gimmeabreak cheerleaders after getting in on it.
It will be settled in three weeks anyway.
Raoul Duke,thanks for the offer but I will pass. My knowledge of the handicap races is non existent so I would have no chance of winning.
Fair play to you for organising it there is a bit of work in it I would say.
Second place prizemoney is so poor relative to first place money that it looks to me that's it not the best use of resources if maximising return is the objective (which it may not be*).
Though would probably need to have knowledge of WPMs every runner in the 26 races to see if he is maximising his EV.
*If he is more interested in maximizing his number of guaranteed wins and willing to reduce his ceiling of possible wins to do this then its a different issue. I don't think its a simple calculation either way.
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Originally posted by careca View PostKing blue Thurles 4.45People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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Friday night Fundalk bet. New Direction in the 8.00 race. Down 7lbs since last race plus a 7 lbs clamier onboard for a nice combined weight loss. Also has a nice stall draw out of 3. Currently 4/1
Edit: oops scrap 7lbs of that its Apprentice HandicapLast edited by Hooch; 23-02-17, 21:39.
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Originally posted by Hooch View PostFriday night Fundalk bet. New Direction in the 8.00 race. Down 7lbs since last race plus a 7 lbs clamier onboard for a nice combined weight loss. Also has a nice stall draw out of 3. Currently 4/1No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakYou are looking at it the wrong way, don't worry cos lots of people look at it the way you are doing however it will lead you to erroneous conclusions. What matters is the horses rating, not the weight he carries (now there are some minor exceptions to this but I am talking in the general sense). New Direction ran off 65 last time and runs off 66 tomorrow so he is actually running off a 1lb higher mark.
Thanks for the correction I'm here to learn.
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Originally posted by Gimmeabreakhe benefits by the claim vs last time as he was not claimer ridden on that occasion. so -7lb for claimer and +1lb from handicapper so 6lb differential. However, is 6lb enough to compensate for the difference in ability between Kevin Manning and the claimer? Also, as it is an apprentice race all the jocks are claiming so it becomes a more level playing field between all the horses as they are all claiming (notionally).
But in relation to tomorrow's race New Directions biggest rival is War Goddess in my opinion who is up 5lbs for last race win plus is losing the 3lb claim Donnacha had ( Anna up this time no claim) is a total of 8lbs up if I'm right. Please correct me if I'm wrong plus has a horrible stall draw which is important at Dundalk. Still feel he has a great shout.
What would your breakdown of the race look like if you wouldn't mind sharing.
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Originally posted by Gimmeabreakno you are pretty right there but I guess to play devils advocate you could say that ND is an exposed 66 yet War G is an unexposed 71 - so WG might improve beyond the differential. My assessment of the race isSPOILERI will be backing Bittern EW 20/1, and Multiviz EW 7/1
One final question on tomorrows race would you agree No Biggie is in the race to set the pace for War Goddess as I fell 1m 4 is to much for him to win??
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakAlso, as it is an apprentice race all the jocks are claiming so it becomes a more level playing field between all the horses as they are all claiming (notionally).
Can you run over the ratings vrs weights part again please.
My understanding is that the top weight is assigned to the top rated horse, and after that weight is dictated by 1 lb deduction for every rating point. Which exceptions by the look of things (no.3 for example is 2lbs lighter)
So with New Direction, he's down because last time out he was top rated horse. And here he is 10 points behind the top horse. He's actually 9lbs lighter not 7 (10st to 9st5). Which I think is from being 10 points behind, less the 1lb extra at the top.
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Originally posted by Gimmeabreak10/10
You were hard done by, I'd contact customer support and ask them to reconsider.No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.
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Hooch you realize it's the apprentices first ride ever? Taking quite the leap of fate to back it so short, especially at Dundalk where it's so tight and easy for an inexperienced jockey to be bullied when jockeying for position. I know they're all apprentices but plenty of them with lots of runs under their belts.Profit before people.
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Lolz
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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My 3 bets for tomorrow.
Gevrey Chambertin in the Eider for me tomorrow. Thought he ran very well LTO and was left in front way too early. 25/1 currently.
See my old friend Jury Duty(got nutted on the line for a 4 figure day in Punchestown last year) runs in Chepstow tomorrow..should be good enough also.
Was at Punchestown on Wednesday and was impressed how The Green Lady won her race (Also O Brien in the bumper was good). Mullins was pretty much pulling her up before the last. Seemed to like the ground which is a bonus considering what it's like at the moment. Gone up in the weights but despite this I think she'll take all the beating @ 2:20 Fairyhouse.Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers
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Originally posted by Pat Mustard View PostYou can say what you want about Ruby but that was some ride on Pleasant Company
Presenting Percy looks a nice bet for the PertempsPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
He is usually very reliable when making statements about these things.
I liked the quote about Douvan being possibly the best horse he ever had but that Hurricane Fly sets the bar very high.
An indication that he rates Hurricane Fly a better horse than Faugheen or Annie Power.
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People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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