Please stick any non runners for cheltenham in the bad beat section. It's where it belongs. Did 5 horses just want them to run tis all. Feel like I beat the bookies if they go off shoorter than when I placed my bet. Money would be nice though. Not long left. Will there be a cheltm thread ?
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IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)
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1. Will Alan King train more winners than Phillip Hobbs Yes
2. Will Paul Nicholls train more winners than Nicky Henderson Yes
3. Will a female jockey win a race Yes
4. Will Min, Un De Sceaux, Douvan and Annie Power all win Yes
5. Will David Pipe train 2 or more winners No
6. Will Vautour finish ahead of Cue Card in the Gold Cup Yes
7. Will Willie Mullins train 7 or more winnersNo
8. Will Richard Johnson ride more winners than Barry GeraghtyYes
9. Will Sprinter Sacre finish in the first three in the Champion ChaseYes
10. Will Thistlecrack win the World HurdleYes
11. Will Venetia Williams train a winnerNo
12. Will the official going at the start of day 1 be good to softYes
13. Will there be 10 or more winning favsYes
14. Will JP McManus own 3 or more winnersNo
15. Will No More Heroes win the RSAYes
16. Will the Coral Cup winners Sp be 15/1 or shorterNo
17. Will Un De Sceaux win the Champion Chase by 3 or more LengthsNo
18. Will Mullins train the bumper winner?No
19. Will the biggest SP winner be above 40/1?No
20. – Tie Breaker – What will be the winning time of the Gold Cup 6 minutes 29 secondsPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post1. Will Alan King train more winners than Phillip Hobbs Yes
2. Will Paul Nicholls train more winners than Nicky Henderson Yes
3. Will a female jockey win a race Yes
4. Will Min, Un De Sceaux, Douvan and Annie Power all win Yes
5. Will David Pipe train 2 or more winners No
6. Will Vautour finish ahead of Cue Card in the Gold Cup Yes
7. Will Willie Mullins train 7 or more winnersNo
8. Will Richard Johnson ride more winners than Barry GeraghtyYes
9. Will Sprinter Sacre finish in the first three in the Champion ChaseYes
10. Will Thistlecrack win the World HurdleYes
11. Will Venetia Williams train a winnerNo
12. Will the official going at the start of day 1 be good to softYes
13. Will there be 10 or more winning favsYes
14. Will JP McManus own 3 or more winnersNo
15. Will No More Heroes win the RSAYes
16. Will the Coral Cup winners Sp be 15/1 or shorterNo
17. Will Un De Sceaux win the Champion Chase by 3 or more LengthsNo
18. Will Mullins train the bumper winner?No
19. Will the biggest SP winner be above 40/1?No
20. – Tie Breaker – What will be the winning time of the Gold Cup 6 minutes 29 seconds
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakSupa will be better on better ground, imo.
Smash is in a race where it is likely that 3 of the 4 beneath him in the betting will not run and he could start 9/2 so I was just snaffling definite value. Don't think he needs it soft or anything - will act on what is there just grand, esp in a poor race.
Had another look at Ryanair and he does stand out. Road to Riches going for the Gold Cup would help as well.
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Originally posted by mdoug View PostChosen Rock in the race just about to go off here in dundalk has just been backed from 100's to 5.6 in the last 10 minutes in the exchanges. wow
edit: lol didn't even hear his name during the race
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Interesting sprint coming up here at Lingfield, strange seeing some of the classier horses out this early in the year, hard to see them being anywhere near full fitness.
Mick Halfords Russian Soul looks interesting at double figures, doubt he'd send it over without thinking he had a chance, won recently at Dundalk so could be one of very few with fitness on his side.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakThat's €2 more than they would lay me before I started working for them. You should be happy. It's also €2 more than Bet365, SkyBet, Tote, Boyles, BetFred, SportingBet, BetVictor, PaddyPower, StanJAmes, 888, Coral, Betfair Sports, Betway and Racebets will lay me. You see having a restricted account is cool in the same way as it's cool when you first start shaving. You feel like a big man and want people to know so you tell everybody when the opportunity presents but eventually you realise that it is actually an inconvenience and overall far more hassle than you would like. That said I will have a look tomorrow for you and see why.
I'm hardly a big punter, very far from it. I've had 15 bets with BetBright since October, the largest €100 on a 2.1 everything else sub €50 and the account is a small winner, hardly a badge of honour or a huge brag tbf.Last edited by Sirtoyou; 29-02-16, 09:50. Reason: Noel sent me my figures and in fact I'm a small winner there. The point stands though it's small potatoes punting there.
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Originally posted by mcnugget View PostDelighted with that, he is tough. We knew we had a few pounds in hand today. Thought the early prices might have been a little tastier but still a nice touch.
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Am I missing something in being ridiculously optimistic in Don Poli for the GC?
He's the proverbial boat, 2/2 at the Festival. You could argue he hasn't beaten much in his chasing career to date but you could equally argue they've never had to get to the bottom of him. Young, improving type which is what you want for the GC these days.
Vautour shouldn't be in the GC imo, having been outstayed over 3 on a flat track.
Djakadam has fallen 2/3 at Cheltenham and had a bad one last time.
Cue Card and Don Cossack have the wrong age profile and have both been to the well too many times for my liking. Plus DC's record at Cheltenham is poor.
Lumpage imo!
/amateur analysis."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Outstayed on a flat track? I'd argue that the 3 miles at Kempton in that race would be harder to get than the gold cup trip this yearLast edited by Wesley Harms; 08-03-16, 18:02.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostAm I missing something in being ridiculously optimistic in Don Poli for the GC?
I'll tell you what, I haven't looked forward with such relish to a race in a long time (Jennies races being much more a matter of dread and nerves).
Its gonna be grrrreat
I'm a believer in both the Don's and am surprised I'm not already heavily invested in Don Cossack
tbh I like of most of the field the whole way down to Hemming's National winner.
In a reverse of the cliché it you put a gun to my head and forced me to lay one it would probably be Vatour
Heart and wallet agree with your thoughts on Don Poli.Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostOnly that its on paper the most exciting looking GC in years with a number of very good horses that people have strong opinions about turning up.
I'll tell you what, I haven't looked forward with such relish to a race in a long time (Jennies races being much more a matter of dread and nerves).
Its gonna be grrrreat
I'm a believer in both the Don's and am surprised I'm not already heavily invested in Don Cossack
tbh I like of most of the field the whole way down to Hemming's National winner.
In a reverse of the cliché it you put a gun to my head and forced me to lay one it would probably be Vatour
Heart and wallet agree with your thoughts on Don Poli.
Hoping Smad Place blasts off and makes it a real test. I still have an inkling Vautour gets rerouted."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostOnly that its on paper the most exciting looking GC in years with a number of very good horses that people have strong opinions about turning up.
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Originally posted by Lplate View PostThis. I'm firmly in the Don Cossack camp. Think the race will be attritional and he'll stay on past all of them. Some signs that Cooper will go for Poli, leaving Cossack for Russell, which is another plus in my book.
I just don't get it?? He's young and very talented he's going to make mistakes but I'd still be happy with him on any ride I have had a financial investment in...
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Originally posted by gazman59 View PostAwful lot of negitivity surrounding Cooper lately and people knocking him or saying its a plus for their fancy if he wasn't on it.
I just don't get it?? He's young and very talented he's going to make mistakes but I'd still be happy with him on any ride I have had a financial investment in...
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Don Cossack/ Don Poli both have course form which you have to take into account. The way I see it if DP plods around and the rest make mistakes it's his to win. Don poli is a class animal and prob goes against him because he doesnt do a tap and was a big big fan last year....But DC has been aimed at the race for so long and if his jumping holds up and he's there 2 or 3 out will have the class & pace to win.Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers
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Originally posted by Pat Mustard View PostDon Cossack/ Don Poli both have course form which you have to take into account. The way I see it if DP plods around and the rest make mistakes it's his to win. Don poli is a class animal and prob goes against him because he doesnt do a tap and was a big big fan last year....But DC has been aimed at the race for so long and if his jumping holds up and he's there 2 or 3 out will have the class & pace to win.
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Originally posted by Dice75 View PostDrifted back a bit in last couple of hours - 6s available in spots now
He was racing earlier than ideal. I'd say that was the last chance for a scoop on him now aged nine. E/W profit but meh."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by White Knight View PostHate to shill another bookie but sure a free 50 in free bets is value?
https://www.betbright.com/lg/11693/4...=a_3751b_831c_
Edit. Min LDO
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If the Gold Cup is a race to savour, the Champion Hurdle has cut up very badly.
You would have to take on Annie Power and it's over thirty years since a mare won a CH.
Identity Thief? Really?
My Tent or Yours hasn't run for two years.
Nichols Canyon has had a heavy enough workload and was below par last time.
Coming round to a smallish e/w nibble on Top Notch who acts on the course and should be back on an upward curve. Peace and Co looks to need a psychologist!
Race for small stakes this year."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Nicholls Canyon has to be a brilliant ew value bet with Boyles surely. 5/1 and paying 4 places. Will be seen to better effect on better ground and if you can forgive his last run where Faugheen ate him when he tried to keep pace with him. He's been second fav all season with Faugheen and Arctic Fire still in. Annie with loads of questions to answer and he's a bigger price now.
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Originally posted by Sirtoyou View PostNicholls Canyon has to be a brilliant ew value bet with Boyles surely. 5/1 and paying 4 places. Will be seen to better effect on better ground and if you can forgive his last run where Faugheen ate him when he tried to keep pace with him. He's been second fav all season with Faugheen and Arctic Fire still in. Annie with loads of questions to answer and he's a bigger price now.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostIf the Gold Cup is a race to savour, the Champion Hurdle has cut up very badly.
You would have to take on Annie Power and it's over thirty years since a mare won a CH.
Identity Thief? Really?
My Tent or Yours hasn't run for two years.
Nichols Canyon has had a heavy enough workload and was below par last time.
Coming round to a smallish e/w nibble on Top Notch who acts on the course and should be back on an upward curve. Peace and Co looks to need a psychologist!
Race for small stakes this year.
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I'm on Nichols Canyon each way at 25/1 for this. He would have a great chance only for Mullins running him in the Irish Champion 4 weeks after having a hard race against Identity Thief in bottomless ground.
If it was Faugheen who had a hard race at Christmas there is no way Mullins would have ran him again four weeks later so why would he run Nichols Canyon back four weeks later.
The ways things have transpired I'm sure he is regretting running Nichols in the Irish Champion now.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostIf the Gold Cup is a race to savour, the Champion Hurdle has cut up very badly.
You would have to take on Annie Power and it's over thirty years since a mare won a CH.Identity Thief? Really?
My Tent or Yours hasn't run for two years.
Nichols Canyon has had a heavy enough workload and was below par last time.
Coming round to a smallish e/w nibble on Top Notch who acts on the course and should be back on an upward curve. Peace and Co looks to need a psychologist!
Race for small stakes this year.
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Originally posted by NewApproach View PostI'd have concerns over Nichols Canyon running his race, had two exceptionally hard races this year, especially last time, but price beginning to compensate for those concerns.
IT looks very solid to me.
Finishing speed and the pace of the race are bigger concerns for , having Townend up is a bonus.Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by NewApproach View PostAny caveats to this?
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I have nailed my colours the mast with vautour at this stage I think. I really think ruby mistimed it for the king George and that he really really should have won that race. Most certainly clear fav for gold cup if it had done.
Also guy in work who knows a bit more than me about it was saying he believes there is a recency bias surrounding the belief that you need to be an out and out stayer to win the race citing synchronised and Lord wyndamre. Thinks vautour not staying trip is being over hyped.
I reviewed a few races last night involving the other principals and when watching don poli win the rsa last year I was struck by how good a race southfield theatre ran in second. Really clipped one 4 or 5 out and ran a big race. Quoted at 20/1 for the ultima handicap on Tuesday and I am tempted to have a pop. Anybody who knows a bit more than me (ie. All of ye) have thoughts on any of the above??
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Originally posted by shano1888 View PostI have nailed my colours the mast with vautour at this stage I think. I really think ruby mistimed it for the king George and that he really really should have won that race. Most certainly clear fav for gold cup if it had done.
Also guy in work who knows a bit more than me about it was saying he believes there is a recency bias surrounding the belief that you need to be an out and out stayer to win the race citing synchronised and Lord wyndamre. Thinks vautour not staying trip is being over hyped.
I reviewed a few races last night involving the other principals and when watching don poli win the rsa last year I was struck by how good a race southfield theatre ran in second. Really clipped one 4 or 5 out and ran a big race. Quoted at 20/1 for the ultima handicap on Tuesday and I am tempted to have a pop. Anybody who knows a bit more than me (ie. All of ye) have thoughts on any of the above??sigpic
Longshotvalue.com
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Nicholls gave gave him a good chance in an interview a few weeks ago saying he needs good ground. He should win it on his best form but he has ran two shockers this year albeit it on poor ground.
Ive backed Cause of Causes for this on betfair at a ridiculous price and if he dosen't turn up I will be having a look at Southfield Theatre.
I think Southfield Royale has a great chance in the four miler with Nina on board which is a great booking for an amateur riders race.
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