Please stick any non runners for cheltenham in the bad beat section. It's where it belongs. Did 5 horses just want them to run tis all. Feel like I beat the bookies if they go off shoorter than when I placed my bet. Money would be nice though. Not long left. Will there be a cheltm thread ?
1. Will Alan King train more winners than Phillip Hobbs Yes
2. Will Paul Nicholls train more winners than Nicky Henderson Yes
3. Will a female jockey win a race Yes
4. Will Min, Un De Sceaux, Douvan and Annie Power all win Yes
5. Will David Pipe train 2 or more winners No
6. Will Vautour finish ahead of Cue Card in the Gold Cup Yes
7. Will Willie Mullins train 7 or more winnersNo
8. Will Richard Johnson ride more winners than Barry GeraghtyYes
9. Will Sprinter Sacre finish in the first three in the Champion ChaseYes
10. Will Thistlecrack win the World HurdleYes
11. Will Venetia Williams train a winnerNo
12. Will the official going at the start of day 1 be good to softYes
13. Will there be 10 or more winning favsYes
14. Will JP McManus own 3 or more winnersNo
15. Will No More Heroes win the RSAYes
16. Will the Coral Cup winners Sp be 15/1 or shorterNo
17. Will Un De Sceaux win the Champion Chase by 3 or more LengthsNo
18. Will Mullins train the bumper winner?No
19. Will the biggest SP winner be above 40/1?No
20. – Tie Breaker – What will be the winning time of the Gold Cup 6 minutes 29 seconds
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner! https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
1. Will Alan King train more winners than Phillip Hobbs Yes
2. Will Paul Nicholls train more winners than Nicky Henderson Yes
3. Will a female jockey win a race Yes
4. Will Min, Un De Sceaux, Douvan and Annie Power all win Yes
5. Will David Pipe train 2 or more winners No
6. Will Vautour finish ahead of Cue Card in the Gold Cup Yes
7. Will Willie Mullins train 7 or more winnersNo
8. Will Richard Johnson ride more winners than Barry GeraghtyYes
9. Will Sprinter Sacre finish in the first three in the Champion ChaseYes
10. Will Thistlecrack win the World HurdleYes
11. Will Venetia Williams train a winnerNo
12. Will the official going at the start of day 1 be good to softYes
13. Will there be 10 or more winning favsYes
14. Will JP McManus own 3 or more winnersNo
15. Will No More Heroes win the RSAYes
16. Will the Coral Cup winners Sp be 15/1 or shorterNo
17. Will Un De Sceaux win the Champion Chase by 3 or more LengthsNo
18. Will Mullins train the bumper winner?No
19. Will the biggest SP winner be above 40/1?No
20. – Tie Breaker – What will be the winning time of the Gold Cup 6 minutes 29 seconds
Smash is in a race where it is likely that 3 of the 4 beneath him in the betting will not run and he could start 9/2 so I was just snaffling definite value. Don't think he needs it soft or anything - will act on what is there just grand, esp in a poor race.
He has good form on soft and heavy so if he improves for better ground he will have a great chance. Having said that the Supreme is very strong this year with Min, Altior, Yorkhill and possibly Henderson's other horse. I will back Supa, Yorkhill and Altior in this using the promotion some bookmakers have for this race.
Had another look at Ryanair and he does stand out. Road to Riches going for the Gold Cup would help as well.
Interesting sprint coming up here at Lingfield, strange seeing some of the classier horses out this early in the year, hard to see them being anywhere near full fitness.
Mick Halfords Russian Soul looks interesting at double figures, doubt he'd send it over without thinking he had a chance, won recently at Dundalk so could be one of very few with fitness on his side.
That's €2 more than they would lay me before I started working for them. You should be happy. It's also €2 more than Bet365, SkyBet, Tote, Boyles, BetFred, SportingBet, BetVictor, PaddyPower, StanJAmes, 888, Coral, Betfair Sports, Betway and Racebets will lay me. You see having a restricted account is cool in the same way as it's cool when you first start shaving. You feel like a big man and want people to know so you tell everybody when the opportunity presents but eventually you realise that it is actually an inconvenience and overall far more hassle than you would like. That said I will have a look tomorrow for you and see why.
I'm not on here bragging about having a restricted account, far from it. I know it's a pain in the hole and not in any way a sign of being a big man or a badge of honour. I availed of your SS tip, as I've availed of many of your tips through the years and I appreciate the generosity you show around these parts with your knowledge. But having said that you went to the effort in your original tip of dissing other books of not being genuine nrnb for Cheltenham. How are BetBright in a position to knock any other provider if they won't lay a bet.
I'm hardly a big punter, very far from it. I've had 15 bets with BetBright since October, the largest €100 on a 2.1 everything else sub €50 and the account is a small winner, hardly a badge of honour or a huge brag tbf.
Last edited by Sirtoyou; 29-02-16, 09:50.
Reason: Noel sent me my figures and in fact I'm a small winner there. The point stands though it's small potatoes punting there.
Fk me..... Toon river really does like gowran.....5th win there today ..... form of 10/11/8 n looking outta sorts up to today.... Would love to know where he'd finished on any other course in Ireland today....
Not aftertiming btw didn't back him....just over analysing
Delighted with that, he is tough. We knew we had a few pounds in hand today. Thought the early prices might have been a little tastier but still a nice touch.
Delighted with that, he is tough. We knew we had a few pounds in hand today. Thought the early prices might have been a little tastier but still a nice touch.
Cheers Mcnugget. Had put some of the tate winnings. Just got home to see that went well also. Ty ty
Am I missing something in being ridiculously optimistic in Don Poli for the GC?
He's the proverbial boat, 2/2 at the Festival. You could argue he hasn't beaten much in his chasing career to date but you could equally argue they've never had to get to the bottom of him. Young, improving type which is what you want for the GC these days.
Vautour shouldn't be in the GC imo, having been outstayed over 3 on a flat track.
Djakadam has fallen 2/3 at Cheltenham and had a bad one last time.
Cue Card and Don Cossack have the wrong age profile and have both been to the well too many times for my liking. Plus DC's record at Cheltenham is poor.
Lumpage imo!
/amateur analysis.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
Am I missing something in being ridiculously optimistic in Don Poli for the GC?
Only that its on paper the most exciting looking GC in years with a number of very good horses that people have strong opinions about turning up.
I'll tell you what, I haven't looked forward with such relish to a race in a long time (Jennies races being much more a matter of dread and nerves).
Its gonna be grrrreat
I'm a believer in both the Don's and am surprised I'm not already heavily invested in Don Cossack
tbh I like of most of the field the whole way down to Hemming's National winner.
Only that its on paper the most exciting looking GC in years with a number of very good horses that people have strong opinions about turning up.
I'll tell you what, I haven't looked forward with such relish to a race in a long time (Jennies races being much more a matter of dread and nerves).
Its gonna be grrrreat
I'm a believer in both the Don's and am surprised I'm not already heavily invested in Don Cossack
tbh I like of most of the field the whole way down to Hemming's National winner.
Am I missing something in being ridiculously optimistic in Don Poli for the ....
Firmly in the Don Poli camp as well, everything you'd want In a GC horse. He may even go off a bit bigger on the day. Would love to see Russell on board.
I backed him at Xmas 2014 at Leop (nearly sure) zbd he was very impressive . likewise when he won rsa last year I thought certain gc winner.my one concern is mullins saying he'd love to go the grand national with him. Reads as though he is afraid he'll be caught for toe at some stage in gc.
Only that its on paper the most exciting looking GC in years with a number of very good horses that people have strong opinions about turning up.
This. I'm firmly in the Don Cossack camp. Think the race will be attritional and he'll stay on past all of them. Some signs that Cooper will go for Poli, leaving Cossack for Russell, which is another plus in my book.
This. I'm firmly in the Don Cossack camp. Think the race will be attritional and he'll stay on past all of them. Some signs that Cooper will go for Poli, leaving Cossack for Russell, which is another plus in my book.
Awful lot of negitivity surrounding Cooper lately and people knocking him or saying its a plus for their fancy if he wasn't on it.
I just don't get it?? He's young and very talented he's going to make mistakes but I'd still be happy with him on any ride I have had a financial investment in...
Awful lot of negitivity surrounding Cooper lately and people knocking him or saying its a plus for their fancy if he wasn't on it.
I just don't get it?? He's young and very talented he's going to make mistakes but I'd still be happy with him on any ride I have had a financial investment in...
I can see that what I said came across as a negative for Cooper but it's more a positive for Russell's experience and knowhow in the biggest race of them all. I too have a lot of time for Cooper but I'd be happy if Russell was on Cossack for this one. I still can't forget the ride he gave Lord Windemere a couple of years ago. He stole a Gold Cup on a horse that looked out with the washing half way through the final circuit, when a lot of jockeys would have thrown in the towel. That said, if Cooper chooses Cossack, he'll still be carrying my wedge.
Don Cossack/ Don Poli both have course form which you have to take into account. The way I see it if DP plods around and the rest make mistakes it's his to win. Don poli is a class animal and prob goes against him because he doesnt do a tap and was a big big fan last year....But DC has been aimed at the race for so long and if his jumping holds up and he's there 2 or 3 out will have the class & pace to win.
Don Cossack/ Don Poli both have course form which you have to take into account. The way I see it if DP plods around and the rest make mistakes it's his to win. Don poli is a class animal and prob goes against him because he doesnt do a tap and was a big big fan last year....But DC has been aimed at the race for so long and if his jumping holds up and he's there 2 or 3 out will have the class & pace to win.
The both have course form, but they both don't have good course form. Don Poli won twice there and Don Cossack disappointed twice there
If the Gold Cup is a race to savour, the Champion Hurdle has cut up very badly.
You would have to take on Annie Power and it's over thirty years since a mare won a CH.
Identity Thief? Really?
My Tent or Yours hasn't run for two years.
Nichols Canyon has had a heavy enough workload and was below par last time.
Coming round to a smallish e/w nibble on Top Notch who acts on the course and should be back on an upward curve. Peace and Co looks to need a psychologist!
Race for small stakes this year.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
Nicholls Canyon has to be a brilliant ew value bet with Boyles surely. 5/1 and paying 4 places. Will be seen to better effect on better ground and if you can forgive his last run where Faugheen ate him when he tried to keep pace with him. He's been second fav all season with Faugheen and Arctic Fire still in. Annie with loads of questions to answer and he's a bigger price now.
Nicholls Canyon has to be a brilliant ew value bet with Boyles surely. 5/1 and paying 4 places. Will be seen to better effect on better ground and if you can forgive his last run where Faugheen ate him when he tried to keep pace with him. He's been second fav all season with Faugheen and Arctic Fire still in. Annie with loads of questions to answer and he's a bigger price now.
If the Gold Cup is a race to savour, the Champion Hurdle has cut up very badly.
You would have to take on Annie Power and it's over thirty years since a mare won a CH.
Identity Thief? Really?
My Tent or Yours hasn't run for two years.
Nichols Canyon has had a heavy enough workload and was below par last time.
Coming round to a smallish e/w nibble on Top Notch who acts on the course and should be back on an upward curve. Peace and Co looks to need a psychologist!
Race for small stakes this year.
Lol. Said to the wife yesterday that I couldn't work out the CH and Top Notch was what I ended up with. But 5yolds have a shocking record in the race. Won't be emptying the clip anyway.
I'm on Nichols Canyon each way at 25/1 for this. He would have a great chance only for Mullins running him in the Irish Champion 4 weeks after having a hard race against Identity Thief in bottomless ground.
If it was Faugheen who had a hard race at Christmas there is no way Mullins would have ran him again four weeks later so why would he run Nichols Canyon back four weeks later.
The ways things have transpired I'm sure he is regretting running Nichols in the Irish Champion now.
If the Gold Cup is a race to savour, the Champion Hurdle has cut up very badly.
You would have to take on Annie Power and it's over thirty years since a mare won a CH.Identity Thief? Really?
My Tent or Yours hasn't run for two years.
Nichols Canyon has had a heavy enough workload and was below par last time.
Coming round to a smallish e/w nibble on Top Notch who acts on the course and should be back on an upward curve. Peace and Co looks to need a psychologist!
Race for small stakes this year.
Poor old Flakey Dove in the mid 90s always gets forgotten about in these 'mare winning the CHurdle' debates.
I'd have concerns over Nichols Canyon running his race, had two exceptionally hard races this year, especially last time, but price beginning to compensate for those concerns.
I'd have concerns over Nichols Canyon running his race, had two exceptionally hard races this year, especially last time, but price beginning to compensate for those concerns.
IT looks very solid to me.
He's had three runs since November, IMO the tough one was at Christmas, not last time , the amount of racing he has had is not a factor for me.
Finishing speed and the pace of the race are bigger concerns for , having Townend up is a bonus.
Tbh I just noticed it on odds checker last night that they had 4 places. I didn't check the site as there's no point. I had intended doing it in shop but when I checked this morning it's back to 3 places on odds checker again so may have been a typo.
I have nailed my colours the mast with vautour at this stage I think. I really think ruby mistimed it for the king George and that he really really should have won that race. Most certainly clear fav for gold cup if it had done.
Also guy in work who knows a bit more than me about it was saying he believes there is a recency bias surrounding the belief that you need to be an out and out stayer to win the race citing synchronised and Lord wyndamre. Thinks vautour not staying trip is being over hyped.
I reviewed a few races last night involving the other principals and when watching don poli win the rsa last year I was struck by how good a race southfield theatre ran in second. Really clipped one 4 or 5 out and ran a big race. Quoted at 20/1 for the ultima handicap on Tuesday and I am tempted to have a pop. Anybody who knows a bit more than me (ie. All of ye) have thoughts on any of the above??
I have nailed my colours the mast with vautour at this stage I think. I really think ruby mistimed it for the king George and that he really really should have won that race. Most certainly clear fav for gold cup if it had done.
Also guy in work who knows a bit more than me about it was saying he believes there is a recency bias surrounding the belief that you need to be an out and out stayer to win the race citing synchronised and Lord wyndamre. Thinks vautour not staying trip is being over hyped.
I reviewed a few races last night involving the other principals and when watching don poli win the rsa last year I was struck by how good a race southfield theatre ran in second. Really clipped one 4 or 5 out and ran a big race. Quoted at 20/1 for the ultima handicap on Tuesday and I am tempted to have a pop. Anybody who knows a bit more than me (ie. All of ye) have thoughts on any of the above??
Certainly overpriced at 20/1 Nicholes horse's will be better at the featival than they have been during the year.
Nicholls gave gave him a good chance in an interview a few weeks ago saying he needs good ground. He should win it on his best form but he has ran two shockers this year albeit it on poor ground.
Ive backed Cause of Causes for this on betfair at a ridiculous price and if he dosen't turn up I will be having a look at Southfield Theatre.
I think Southfield Royale has a great chance in the four miler with Nina on board which is a great booking for an amateur riders race.
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