Originally posted by connie147
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostShame for Fergal to run into a man in form. Are you staying over there to catch the end of Ken's game or is Fergal too deflated?
Last 3 World qualifiers he's run into men in great form, Stevens (final black ball) 2 years ago, Dave Gilbert last year who played amazing & Lisowski this year who had that 5 frame mini session where he was simply unplayable.
I guess like the WSOP Main Event the day a snooker player gets knocked out of the Worlds is the worst day of the year but Fergal's long enough in the game to take a step back and look at the result with brutal honesty and try pick some lessons learned for going forward. With this match it was not putting the squeeze on enough at start of evening session when he won the first frame & should have taken the first 'mini session' 3-1. Disappointed but not deflated.
Lisowski won the match with a brilliant 5 frame salvo from 3-1 down. He was unplayable.
Fergal's back for his first PTC early June so it's onwards & hopefully upwards. Always looking forward, learning & hopefully not making the same mistakes.
P.S Good luck with the bets, I think McManus' vast experience might just see him throughLast edited by TM2204; 14-04-13, 15:01.
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I think Fergal was unlucky in the draw as Lisowski was one of the toughest he could have got. Lisowski's such a heavy scorer, and when he gets on a roll, he's a nightmare for anyone. It was always going to be hard to keep the reins on him.
There were many other matches in the round where Id have fancied fergal if he'd had a better draw/ I think Lisowski will be a dangerous opponnent in the 1st round proper (once he's not affected by his 1st appearance in the Crucible)
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostUnlucky on the Wenbo bet Connie. Hope you came out with profit
Ken after going from 9-3 down to 9-7. probably left himself too much to do. He should have wont the first couple of frames today, but he rhrew away both. Really hope he has the miracle comeback.
Now anxiously waiting for the draw for the 1st round proper.
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Originally posted by connie147 View Post3 x doubles and a treble up in the yankee and the outsider double up (well im presuming marcus Cambell turns his 7-2 lead into a win tonite).. Im quite happy with that.
Ken after going from 9-3 down to 9-7. probably left himself too much to do. He should have wont the first couple of frames today, but he rhrew away both. Really hope he has the miracle comeback.
Now anxiously waiting for the draw for the 1st round proper.
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostYou following the same way i am, or you got a funky link?
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Originally posted by connie147 View Post
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Originally posted by connie147 View PostI think Fergal was unlucky in the draw as Lisowski was one of the toughest he could have got. Lisowski's such a heavy scorer, and when he gets on a roll, he's a nightmare for anyone. It was always going to be hard to keep the reins on him.
There were many other matches in the round where Id have fancied fergal if he'd had a better draw/ I think Lisowski will be a dangerous opponnent in the 1st round proper (once he's not affected by his 1st appearance in the Crucible)
Anyway, that's irrelevant, you must beat whats put in front of you and if Fergal had put the squeeze on a little tighter at start of evening session he would have been right back in it especially with Lisowski never having qualified for the Crucible before. It mean't a lot to him evident when he won.
Having said that though Fergal does seem to draw the guys bang in form.Last edited by TM2204; 14-04-13, 19:22.
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The likes of Fergal and Ken should really be incentivised to make a good go of it the next few years by Barry Hearns plans.
Some huge money increases and they are going ahead with the new seeding system (everyone starts in Rnd 1) for 9 of the ranking events.
(Warning to Flushdraw, some of the inconsistent pay jumps may trouble you)
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Bracket draw.
Ronnie O'Sullivan v Marcus Campbell
Ali Carter v Ben Woollaston
Stuart Bingham v Sam Baird
John Higgins v Mark Davis
Shaun Murphy v Martin Gould
Graeme Dott v Peter Ebdon
Matthew Stevens v Marco Fu
Judd Trump v Dominic Dale
Neil Robertson v Robert Milkins
Ricky Walden v Michael Holt
Mark Williams v Michael White
Stephen Maguire v Dechewat Poomjaeng
Mark Allen v Mark King
Ding Junhui v Alan McManus
Barry Hawkins v Jack Lisowski
Mark Selby v Mathew Selt
****
Ebdon v Dott the standout for those who like value for money for their entrance fee.
MS v MS, MW v MW and SB v SB, first time thats ever happened.Last edited by ArmaniJeans; 15-04-13, 14:15.
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For the first time in years, there isn't 1 game there that i'm fistpumping or really looking forward to seeing. Some long long games ahead too. Ebdon v Dott as you mentioned, and Ding v McManus/Stevens v Fu won't be sprints either.
Probably Allen v King for entertainment could be the pick of the round imo.
Can't even see a whole load of value, because the exciting/better qualifiers all got tough draws. Woolaston 11/4 v Carter could be decent. Lisowski only Evs v Hawkins, Holt 8/5 v Walden and Ebdon 6/4 v Dott would be best outside chances are first glance
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If there's a top qualifier market (altho not sure how dead heat rules in snooker apply) then the player most likely to win their first 2 matches could be Marco Fu. He can defo get past Stevens and if Trump has an offday in the first round or the 2nd round, then he could be in with a shout. Bingham would have fancied his chance this season and there could have been some decent money on him, but he really did get the nut cunt of a quarter with Higgins and O Sullivan
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostFor the first time in years, there isn't 1 game there that i'm fistpumping or really looking forward to seeing. Some long long games ahead too. Ebdon v Dott as you mentioned, and Ding v McManus/Stevens v Fu won't be sprints either.
Probably Allen v King for entertainment could be the pick of the round imo.
Can't even see a whole load of value, because the exciting/better qualifiers all got tough draws. Woolaston 11/4 v Carter could be decent. Lisowski only Evs v Hawkins, Holt 8/5 v Walden and Ebdon 6/4 v Dott would be best outside chances are first glance
I didnt do any serious look at it yet, but I'll be against you on the Ebdon match. I think Dott wins with something to spare.
Ive already backed holt for the game against Walden. Think its great value. Michael White @ 2/1 (PP) is good value considering the way mark Williams is playing.
For accum backers, Sean Murphy is a must at 2/5 against Martin Gould.
An accum with :
Sean Murphy 2/5 bet365, same Boyles
John Higgen 1/3 bet365, 1/4 Boyles
Mark Allen 1/4 bet365, 1/6 Boyles
Neil Robertson 1/5 bet 365, 2/9 Boyles.
Steven Maguire 1/7 bet365, 1/6 Boyles.
return just over 2/1 (€32 got €10 on bet 365), and just under 2/1 on Boyles (€29 for €10)
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Just to say that it is definately the most open WC in years, and literally, any 1 of 9 players could win it. I backed a few for small enough monies a couple of months ago, but 2 of them ended up in the same quarter!!
Mark Allen I thought had a serious chance this year, but he's going to have to play Ding in the last 16 (presuming he gets over mark King), and if he gets the better of Ding, he must play Selby in the quarters!! Thats some tough run, so I'll just stick with what i have on him for now.
I had also backed Ding earlier, and as above, no further investment.
The player I intend backing now for the title is Steven Maguire. I thought a few years ago when he appeared on the scene, that he would win the WC a number of times, but it hasnt happened. Still, this season is the first time in a number of years that Ive seen him back in the form he used to show, and at 14/1. he is due to meet neil Robertson in the quarter finals. I think that match will be a cracker, and with Robertson best priced 6/1, Im siding with maguire.
The top half is much easier imho. No-one is sure yet what Ronnies gonna be like, and with that in mind, a small ew bet on Ali Carter (best priced 28/1) wouldnt be a bad investment. Seems to always up his game at the crucible, he has been showing a bit of form late in the season.
In the 2nd quarter, sean Murphy and judd trump are destined to meet in the QF.
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PP have 4/7 for the shortest frame in Round 1 to be under 8 minutes. If every match was the finish 10-5, that's 240 attempts to get there. There's lots of players capable of making a century in 6-7 minutes, nevermind a frame winning clearance. Higgins and O Sullivan managed to play an opening 8 game session in 45 minutes a few years ago. It would be hard to follow because i'm not sure if any sites cover it, but 8 mins is just too big a line imo.
They also have the longest frame to be +46.5 minutes. Again, i like the overs here. Players don't like giving up too easy when the match comes to an end and you often see players playing on for 4 and 5 snookers if it's 8-7+ in frames because they don't want to go home. There's been a lot of hour+ frames in the crucible with the longest being over 75 minutes. It's another one that's hard to follow but i'd expect it to be a winner.
Dott v Ebdon is 9/4 to be the longest match of the 1st round. Not sure that will go all the way, so i see some value in Ding v McManus and Bingham v Baird both @ 16/1
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostPP have 4/7 for the shortest frame in Round 1 to be under 8 minutes. If every match was the finish 10-5, that's 240 attempts to get there. There's lots of players capable of making a century in 6-7 minutes, nevermind a frame winning clearance. Higgins and O Sullivan managed to play an opening 8 game session in 45 minutes a few years ago. It would be hard to follow because i'm not sure if any sites cover it, but 8 mins is just too big a line imo.
They also have the longest frame to be +46.5 minutes. Again, i like the overs here. Players don't like giving up too easy when the match comes to an end and you often see players playing on for 4 and 5 snookers if it's 8-7+ in frames because they don't want to go home. There's been a lot of hour+ frames in the crucible with the longest being over 75 minutes. It's another one that's hard to follow but i'd expect it to be a winner.
Dott v Ebdon is 9/4 to be the longest match of the 1st round. Not sure that will go all the way, so i see some value in Ding v McManus and Bingham v Baird both @ 16/1
looking at o sullivan, the line on longest frame of the match is 27:30... sure there will be at least one longer frame, id presume 3 safety battles in any of the frames and it would be beat, especially with o sullivn been rusty, he will be taking his time with alot of shots...
,and cant see any of the frames being less than 8 minutes in the this particular match..
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Originally posted by luckforsome View PostLooking at this as well, some good value..
looking at o sullivan, the line on longest frame of the match is 27:30... sure there will be at least one longer frame, id presume 3 safety battles in any of the frames and it would be beat, especially with o sullivn been rusty, he will be taking his time with alot of shots...
,and cant see any of the frames being less than 8 minutes in the this particular match..
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Looking at some of the 'breaks' odds for tomorrow's games (excl Ronnie's)
Murphy is averaging a century every 17 frames this season, while Gould lagging behind with 1 century every 23 frames. He's yet to break 140 so i think the 4/7 on Murphy HB is a good one.
Holt is 11/10 for HB against Walden. Holts got a 144 under his belt and is hitting them more consistently than Walden. Also, the under 1.5 centuries @ 4/6 could be good because they both have a history of being jittery in the opening game.
Williams has only hit 9 centuries this season in 361 frames. He's slipped into his old habit of not giving a shit about centuries when he has the frame won. White is one of the most consistent break builders outside the top 16 and is averaging a century every 16 frames compared to Williams 1 in 40. White 7/5 for HB with PP is value imo.
Hoping for good things in the Hawkins/Lisowski game. They're both decent break builders and Lisowski has a maximum this season compared to Hawkins 135. Lisowski 5/6 for HB and over 1.5 centuries @5/6 because this game should go the distance.
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostHolt is 11/10 for HB against Walden. Holts got a 144 under his belt and is hitting them more consistently than Walden. Also, the under 1.5 centuries @ 4/6 could be good because they both have a history of being jittery in the opening game.Originally posted by White Knight View PostToday's matches
Michael Holt Highest Break - Ricky Walden vs Michael Holt
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Originally posted by luckforsome View Post..missed the first 4 frames, so not sure of timing...but looking at frame 5 and the overs on the 26 minutes has been hit already...
could anyone tell me if any of the first 4 frames has been less than 8:30>,,,and is there anywhere that keeps track of these...
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostHoping for good things in the Hawkins/Lisowski game. They're both decent break builders and Lisowski has a maximum this season compared to Hawkins 135. Lisowski 5/6 for HB and over 1.5 centuries @5/6 because this game should go the distance.
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Pretty outrageous fluke for Walden to go 9-1 up. Holt 15 behind with the last 3 colours left and lays a snooker on the blue. Walden plays a 2 cushion attempted escape and it's called a miss. Holt puts him back in, but not only does he get out, he pots it to go 15 up with 13 left and clinches it a few mins later. Harsh on Holt but he took it really well, as he has throughout this whole match.
Was meant to post up a comment i heard yesterday morning. Ken Doherty and Willie Thorne talking in commentary and Willie asks Ken did he ever get up and start practicing early in the morning ahead of the WC to get used to the 10am starts. Ken laughed and said no, he just went with the flow. Willie then says that he used to do it for 3/4 days before he played. Ken then pipes up with 'Well it didn't do you any good anyway, did it'
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Davis gets there v Higgins. Poomjaeng had a chance to go 5-1 up on Maguire but played a kangaroo shot straight over the pink and pot the white in the corner. Maguire then pots the pink to pull in back to 4-2. This has the makings of a really open Championships. I reckon so many people's accums have gone out the window already
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostDavis gets there v Higgins. Poomjaeng had a chance to go 5-1 up on Maguire but played a kangaroo shot straight over the pink and pot the white in the corner. Maguire then pots the pink to pull in back to 4-2. This has the makings of a really open Championships. I reckon so many people's accums have gone out the window already
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Absolutely nothing has gone right for Mark King in this game. Made a pretty bad school boy error when he was 5-6 down and way ahead with 3 reds left and Allen needing 3 snookers and he went in off a run of the mill safety and Allen got the required snookers and went 7-5 up. Allen has played so bad that despite all the errors and the run of the balls he has, that King has got it back to 8-8 and is definetly playing with his tail up. The last couple of frames will be good to watch
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostAbsolutely nothing has gone right for Mark King in this game. Made a pretty bad school boy error when he was 5-6 down and way ahead with 3 reds left and Allen needing 3 snookers and he went in off a run of the mill safety and Allen got the required snookers and went 7-5 up. Allen has played so bad that despite all the errors and the run of the balls he has, that King has got it back to 8-8 and is definetly playing with his tail up. The last couple of frames will be good to watch
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