Back to the diamond with two up should see Pool cane the hammers
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Originally posted by Walter Mitty View PostBack to the diamond with two up should see Pool cane the hammers
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Really rate this Leicester side , one of the best promoted sides in recent years, think they'll be solid midtable no worries. But the betting lines today are very respectful of their ability, was hoping United would be shorter but looks right imo.
Two bets I really like today, evens about both teams to score in the Everton Palace game, and Roma -1 at 5/6 vs Cagliari.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostReally rate this Leicester side , one of the best promoted sides in recent years, think they'll be solid midtable no worries. But the betting lines today are very respectful of their ability, was hoping United would be shorter but looks right imo.
Two bets I really like today, evens about both teams to score in the Everton Palace game, and Roma -1 at 5/6 vs Cagliari.
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If anyone has a couple of euro to spare and wants to stick it on a long shot, then here's one to consider.
Mike Frantz to score 2 or more for Freiburg v Leverkusen on Saturday.
Freiburg aren't setting the world alight,but after a great start, Levekusen have started to falter a little (they lost 4-1 to Wolfsburg the weekend before last) so they are prone to conceding a few.
Frantz isn't a prolific goalscorer by any means, but he's playing a more advanced midfield role the last couple of weeks, and he scored 2 goals in 2 first half minutes in Freiburg's 3-3 draw away to Hoffenheim at the weekend. In that game, Darida scored a penalty to put Freiburg 3-2 up but was later sent off, so the penalty taker is up for grabs and Frantz could be a good shout for it too.
It's not a bet to lump on, and it will probably fall on it's arse, but it's a 12/1 shot with Coral and 14/1 with WilliamHill and Betfair, so the 250/1 with Bwin is worth a token bet and will be a nice little sweat imo
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostIf anyone has a couple of euro to spare and wants to stick it on a long shot, then here's one to consider.
Mike Frantz to score 2 or more for Freiburg v Leverkusen on Saturday.
Freiburg aren't setting the world alight,but after a great start, Levekusen have started to falter a little (they lost 4-1 to Wolfsburg the weekend before last) so they are prone to conceding a few.
Frantz isn't a prolific goalscorer by any means, but he's playing a more advanced midfield role the last couple of weeks, and he scored 2 goals in 2 first half minutes in Freiburg's 3-3 draw away to Hoffenheim at the weekend. In that game, Darida scored a penalty to put Freiburg 3-2 up but was later sent off, so the penalty taker is up for grabs and Frantz could be a good shout for it too.
It's not a bet to lump on, and it will probably fall on it's arse, but it's a 12/1 shot with Coral and 14/1 with WilliamHill and Betfair, so the 250/1 with Bwin is worth a token bet and will be a nice little sweat imo
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostI'm with both to score in the Palace Leicester game at 5/6 and Sunderland win at 2/1. Can see this Swansea side plummet down the table, don't really bother with season long bets anymore but they're def the value for relegation currently.
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostIf anyone has a couple of euro to spare and wants to stick it on a long shot, then here's one to consider.
Mike Frantz to score 2 or more for Freiburg v Leverkusen on Saturday.
Freiburg aren't setting the world alight,but after a great start, Levekusen have started to falter a little (they lost 4-1 to Wolfsburg the weekend before last) so they are prone to conceding a few.
Frantz isn't a prolific goalscorer by any means, but he's playing a more advanced midfield role the last couple of weeks, and he scored 2 goals in 2 first half minutes in Freiburg's 3-3 draw away to Hoffenheim at the weekend. In that game, Darida scored a penalty to put Freiburg 3-2 up but was later sent off, so the penalty taker is up for grabs and Frantz could be a good shout for it too.
It's not a bet to lump on, and it will probably fall on it's arse, but it's a 12/1 shot with Coral and 14/1 with WilliamHill and Betfair, so the 250/1 with Bwin is worth a token bet and will be a nice little sweat imo
Is he on bench ?PB
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostI'm with both to score in the Palace Leicester game at 5/6 and Sunderland win at 2/1. Can see this Swansea side plummet down the table, don't really bother with season long bets anymore but they're def the value for relegation currently.Go big or go homeless.
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Last Man Standing - English Premier
Thoughts on last man standing starting this weekend? Any strat ie using best/ easiest fixture team from start (say Chelsea) or take a slight gamble with a weaker team and hold off until more difficult future fixtures then use your nap.
Or just pick a team....also there's over 50 in it at €10 a skull.
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Don't know anything about these teams, but was looking at the game between Waalwijk and Telstar in the Dutch Jupiler League.
Waalwik are bottom of the league with a record of 1-1-7
Their last 6 games record is 0-0-6 F3 A14
They've lost all 4 home games this season F2 A13 in total
You have to go back 12 home matches (2/2/14) to find their last home win. That was during a spell where they only lost once in 10 games. It's all gone wrong since then.
Telstar are 11/20 in the league with a 4-1-4 F15 A15 record
They have only one once away from home this season though, and that was against the team 2nd from bottom. They are on the back of a 4-3 win over 5th place Sparta to put an end to their 3 game winning streak (F7 A0 for those 3 games)
As said, i know nothing about either team, but kinda like the 3/1 on Telstar for a bit of a punt tbh!
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostDon't know anything about these teams, but was looking at the game between Waalwijk and Telstar in the Dutch Jupiler League.
Waalwik are bottom of the league with a record of 1-1-7
Their last 6 games record is 0-0-6 F3 A14
They've lost all 4 home games this season F2 A13 in total
You have to go back 12 home matches (2/2/14) to find their last home win. That was during a spell where they only lost once in 10 games. It's all gone wrong since then.
Telstar are 11/20 in the league with a 4-1-4 F15 A15 record
They have only one once away from home this season though, and that was against the team 2nd from bottom. They are on the back of a 4-3 win over 5th place Sparta to put an end to their 3 game winning streak (F7 A0 for those 3 games)
As said, i know nothing about either team, but kinda like the 3/1 on Telstar for a bit of a punt tbh!
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Originally posted by TheJiggaman View PostWhere can this be backed?
It's 59/20 in places and 29/10 in BetVictor now
Edit - It's 2/1 with WH draw no bet
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Originally posted by Blip View PostThoughts on last man standing starting this weekend? Any strat ie using best/ easiest fixture team from start (say Chelsea) or take a slight gamble with a weaker team and hold off until more difficult future fixtures then use your nap.
Or just pick a team....also there's over 50 in it at €10 a skull.
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Originally posted by Blip View PostWent with West HamHis rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostWaste of money ffs! Stupid form guide!
I've been working on rating system for football matches, basically a combination of well known systems like Elo, Markov etc... which I've adjusted in different ways to test for best combined methods of prediction. I'm using about 30k matches across top two leagues in 8 countries. Still not a finished product but anyway.
On my 'system' if I can call it that, the match rating would have been -320 [I use categories from -700 to + 700]. If I look at all matches rated -200 to -700, the Away team should win or draw about 70% of the time, BUT, there are two exceptions and one is the category -300 to -325 that your Telstar game fits into. In both those categories the result is reversed, i.e the Home team wins or draws about 70% of the time.
I don't have concrete explanation for it but I think the answer is somewhere in applying the Bill James Pythagorean theorem to Soccer - i.e a formula along the lines of Rsquared/Rsquared + 1 = Winning %. [Where R is the scoring ratio]
His baseball theorem can be adapted for other sports but you need to change the exponent, i.e instead of squaring the scoring ratio you find the exponent that best reduces the error for a particular sport in a particular tournament. When you find the exponent that best fits [think its 2.7 for American football, 14 for basketball etc], it changes your match prediction figures hugely, basically you have to adapt you standard match rating by the probability of the underdog causing an upset. In short, in most sports even the worst teams will win sometimes.
So, the answer to the '-320' problem I think, but I haven't finished my 'system' yet, is going to be that the time most likely for an underdog upset occurs more frequently when the match rating is one of the two unexplainable categories in the overall rankings. Or so I hope ....
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Originally posted by elbows View PostAre you mad. They may win but west ham have easier fixtures than Burnley away
MC at home
Stoke away
AV at home
Wouldn't rate any of those as an easier fixture than today's.
Anyway they did win and with Arsenal drawing that kicks lots out of the comp so a good pick in the end.
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Originally posted by Lplated View PostSomething that might interest you.
I've been working on rating system for football matches, basically a combination of well known systems like Elo, Markov etc... which I've adjusted in different ways to test for best combined methods of prediction. I'm using about 30k matches across top two leagues in 8 countries. Still not a finished product but anyway.
On my 'system' if I can call it that, the match rating would have been -320 [I use categories from -700 to + 700]. If I look at all matches rated -200 to -700, the Away team should win or draw about 70% of the time, BUT, there are two exceptions and one is the category -300 to -325 that your Telstar game fits into. In both those categories the result is reversed, i.e the Home team wins or draws about 70% of the time.
I don't have concrete explanation for it but I think the answer is somewhere in applying the Bill James Pythagorean theorem to Soccer - i.e a formula along the lines of Rsquared/Rsquared + 1 = Winning %. [Where R is the scoring ratio]
His baseball theorem can be adapted for other sports but you need to change the exponent, i.e instead of squaring the scoring ratio you find the exponent that best reduces the error for a particular sport in a particular tournament. When you find the exponent that best fits [think its 2.7 for American football, 14 for basketball etc], it changes your match prediction figures hugely, basically you have to adapt you standard match rating by the probability of the underdog causing an upset. In short, in most sports even the worst teams will win sometimes.
So, the answer to the '-320' problem I think, but I haven't finished my 'system' yet, is going to be that the time most likely for an underdog upset occurs more frequently when the match rating is one of the two unexplainable categories in the overall rankings. Or so I hope ....
Videoton have won all 10 games this season scoring 27 and conceding 3. This will be their 8th home game this season (won other 7 obviously). They're unbeaten in the last 17 league games, winning 14 of them.
Debrecen's record after 10 games is 3-3-4, with their away record reading 0-2-3 F3 A6
Videoton at 20/21 looks tempting, but as usual, it would be a bit of a blind punt by knowing nothing about the teams other than form.
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostVideoton at 20/21 looks tempting, but as usual, it would be a bit of a blind punt by knowing nothing about the teams other than form.
Checking out the last 6 games for each overall and Home/Away I can see why it may be judged a little closer to the current odds but in the figures are 2 easy away wins to lower league oppositions for Debrecen and 1 away loss in Uefa League also.
They would be a team expected to be higher in the league having won 7 of the last 10 league titles as well as being defending champions.
Videoton form in general has been amazing. They did lose their first match in 17 (W16 L1) midweek but they were missing a few players due to international window and it was a league cup match they are topping the table in.
I'll now be having an interest bet in Videoton!
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostHow does the game between Videoton and Debrecen in the Hungarian League fit into your system?
Videoton have won all 10 games this season scoring 27 and conceding 3. This will be their 8th home game this season (won other 7 obviously). They're unbeaten in the last 17 league games, winning 14 of them.
Debrecen's record after 10 games is 3-3-4, with their away record reading 0-2-3 F3 A6
Videoton at 20/21 looks tempting, but as usual, it would be a bit of a blind punt by knowing nothing about the teams other than form.
The point I was making earlier about the James theorem may well apply here - if Videoton have won all ten games the % by which they will be due to experience an upset [draw or loss] increases significantly, all the more so with a team that look to have a decent away record.
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostHow does the game between Videoton and Debrecen in the Hungarian League fit into your system?
Videoton have won all 10 games this season scoring 27 and conceding 3. This will be their 8th home game this season (won other 7 obviously). They're unbeaten in the last 17 league games, winning 14 of them.
Debrecen's record after 10 games is 3-3-4, with their away record reading 0-2-3 F3 A6
Videoton at 20/21 looks tempting, but as usual, it would be a bit of a blind punt by knowing nothing about the teams other than form.
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Originally posted by Dice75 View PostJaysus hopefully not. This is arguably the Back 4 going forward for the next few years with Blind sitting in front. Cleanie please.
Anyway, win 4-0. Be a grand richer. Easy game.
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Originally posted by dobman88 View PostI was thinking more of Fergies last game at West Brom. I don't want to see them conceding either. Need to start putting teams like this away.
Anyway, win 4-0. Be a grand richer. Easy game.
SPOILER
175/1 on the first site I checked so probably 200+ available, for shame!
Have an accum from a few weeks ago relying on this game tonight, united -2 I think is it(possibly -1 but 95% sure it's -2). If it win's I'll treat myself to a trip to america next weekGo big or go homeless.
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Originally posted by mdoug View PostYou put a tenner on that forecast at only 100/1... :/
SPOILER
175/1 on the first site I checked so probably 200+ available, for shame!
Have an accum from a few weeks ago relying on this game tonight, united -2 I think is it(possibly -1 but 95% sure it's -2). If it win's I'll treat myself to a trip to america next week
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