Football-betting thread

[Jam-Fly]

think Stoke (at home vs Fulham) and City (away vs Everton) are a bit overpriced today.

Stoke's form has been very good at home, and despite fighting for their lives, I just haven't been inspired by Fulham at all. If Fulham score first, they might win, but if Stoke get the first goal I don't think Fulham will come back from it.

I think Everton have ran out of steam and can't see City dropping points.


Also kinda like the look of Villa vs Hull. This may be more heart than head tho, as I like Villa and hope they stay up

[Jam-Fly]

Hull available at 9/1 against United tomorrow. Logic would dictate Hull's season is over, United won't want to lose again at Old Trafford and will want to go out with a bit of pride. That said, Hull are playing a team that lost 7 times in 18 games at home this season. I don't really think they'll do it but I think the price is too big to pass up.

[Jam-Fly]

Hull available at 9/1 against United tomorrow. Logic would dictate Hull's season is over, United won't want to lose again at Old Trafford and will want to go out with a bit of pride. That said, Hull are playing a team that lost 7 times in 18 games at home this season. I don't really think they'll do it but I think the price is too big to pass up.

Hull down to 13/2 just before kick off.

United's team has two youth players in it: De Gea Valencia Jones Smalling Büttner Carrick Fellaini Kagawa Januzaj Lawrence Wilson

[KevIRL]

Worth loading up on Spurs at 8/15 v Villa at the weekend? Spurs with their last home game of the season up against a Villa team playing their second away game in 4 days and probably pretty deflated to have lost 4-0 after holding out so long tonight. Cant see any other result apart from a handy Spurs win

[Boylo91]

Worth loading up on Spurs at 8/15 v Villa at the weekend? Spurs with their last home game of the season up against a Villa team playing their second away game in 4 days and probably pretty deflated to have lost 4-0 after holding out so long tonight. Cant see any other result apart from a handy Spurs win

i could never thrust them jews with my money,but you make a good point they SHOULD win!!

[Percy007]

Worth loading up on Spurs at 8/15 v Villa at the weekend? Spurs with their last home game of the season up against a Villa team playing their second away game in 4 days and probably pretty deflated to have lost 4-0 after holding out so long tonight. Cant see any other result apart from a handy Spurs win

I think neither Spurs or United want the EL spot, wouldnt surprise me to see Spurs lose.

[mugsy]

I think neither Spurs or United want the EL spot, wouldnt surprise me to see Spurs lose.

winner of europa league gets a cl spot from next season so bit more of an incentive if not looking in great shape in the league.

balls of a competition to go through though its not so bad once the knock out starts few good teams join who finished 3rd in cl group.

good experience for a team anyway. take a young carling cup type squad and maybe switch if make it to quarters. I dont think a team shud just turn there noses up at playing it.

[Theresa]

Anyone turned their attentions towards the World Cup yet betting wise?

Two things I think stand out.

I can't understand why Spain are further out than Germany, and I don't think Brazil should be so short.

[KevIRL]

Worth loading up on Spurs at 8/15 v Villa at the weekend? Spurs with their last home game of the season up against a Villa team playing their second away game in 4 days and probably pretty deflated to have lost 4-0 after holding out so long tonight. Cant see any other result apart from a handy Spurs win

This worked out well and was never in the smallest doubt, bumped up the WC warchest

[Jibzzzz]

Anyone turned their attentions towards the World Cup yet betting wise?

Two things I think stand out.

I can't understand why Spain are further out than Germany, and I don't think Brazil should be so short.

Brazil have a decent squad, maybe not as decent on paper as it has been in the past. Home advantage being key.

Spain for me @7/1 represents the value in the outright market.

[Jam-Fly]

Anyone turned their attentions towards the World Cup yet betting wise?

Two things I think stand out.

I can't understand why Spain are further out than Germany, and I don't think Brazil should be so short.

I think Argentina are favourites but price is too short to be value. Think Argentina have the best team pound for pound.

Agree with John, if there's any value in the outright market it's on Spain. Their strength in depth is amazing (their 4th choice team would be better than most teams in the tournament) but they have weakened in the last two years. Xavi and Iniesta are older and not at their peak, Casillias is probably their best keeper but his place in Real Madrid this season hasn't been ideal. Still though, strength right through out the team even if they don't have the superstars of some other teams (Iniesta, Silva, Ramos, Costa aren't exactly bad players though).

I've heard the 'European team has never won a WC in South America' line a bit recently; have to assume this is going to be an overplayed factor coming from a lot of people/pundits. In this day in age I'd hope the advantage the South American teams have over the European teams would be no more advantageous than playing a game at home in the Champions League.

[smoothcall]

Anyone turned their attentions towards the World Cup yet betting wise?

Two things I think stand out.

I can't understand why Spain are further out than Germany, and I don't think Brazil should be so short.

I think Germany are slightly better than Spain now, Brazil are deserved favs due to huge Home Advantage in South America, prob a little to short though. Belgium are way too short and Portugal worth a punt at 33s, Chile and Colombia prob value too for their groups but prob better just doing match odds

[Flushdraw]

Had a bet on at the start of the season for Villa to be the dirtiest team @ 12/1

They picked up the most yellows (79), had the most fouls per game (12.9) but didn't pick up any reds. I presume the lack of reds will scupper the bet whatever the formula they use to decide it?

[FeetMagic]

The Spanish squad is immense but it all depends on the starting XI for me. Is it known who they will go with majority of time?

[Flushdraw]

The Spanish squad is immense but it all depends on the starting XI for me. Is it known who they will go with majority of time?

Silva/Mata/Costa pushing for the Fabregas/Negredo spots, but based on their appearances in qualifying..

Casilles (5)

Arbeloa (6)
Ramos (8)
Pique (5)
Alba (5)

Busquets (7)
Xavi (7)
Iniesa (8)

Pedro (8)
Fabregas (7)

Negredo (4)

[The Situation]

If they're going play a direct number 9, it's gonna be Diego Costa.

[Warper]

Costa will be Spains striker. Negredo has never really been their number one and he has hardly played this year. Torres is finished so Costa will be their striker. The way Barcelona have played this season is a major turnoff for me regarding Spain as most of their team are Barcelona.

Brazil are deserved favs for this whereas Argentina have a really poor defense. I like Brazil to win this but are very short at 3-1 so will do the winner/top scorer double in which there are some awesome prices like Brazil/Aguero @ 80-1, Brazil/Higuain 150-1 etc. Argentina's group looks shockingly bad

[mugsy]

Benfica have lost their last seven major European finals; they have not won a European trophy since the 1961/62 European Cup.

So well due. got mugged last year too. Pretty even final. That normal points to et and pens. Sevilla look to leak goals too much and not as much fire power as other years.

Bets:
Sevilla and Benfica. Both to win on pens as a speculative punt.
Benfica to win in the 90 as a proper punt.

[Dice75]

Benfica have lost their last seven major European finals; they have not won a European trophy since the 1961/62 European Cup.

So well due. got mugged last year too. Pretty even final. That normal points to et and pens. Sevilla look to leak goals too much and not as much fire power as other years.

Bets:
Sevilla and Benfica. Both to win on pens as a speculative punt.
Benfica to win in the 90 as a proper punt.

Lots of punts on this for a bit of interest.

Lima FGS
Lima Over 2 Goals
Benfica
Benfica - 1
Over 3.5 & 4.5 Goals

Fully expecting a 0-0er

[Jibzzzz]

Lima FGS
Benfica -1

Gl Gl

[LOL_CAMPBELL]

Anyone turned their attentions towards the World Cup yet betting wise?

Two things I think stand out.

I can't understand why Spain are further out than Germany, and I don't think Brazil should be so short.

Ive placed a few bets. Brazil are way too short imo and this has resulted in good value elsewhere. Spain at 7/1 is huge, they should really be favourites given their squad and having won the last three major tournaments theyve contested (ignoring confed cups).

Elsewhere ive placed a few bets on teams who I dont really think are gonna win but i feel are way over priced, as dumb as that sounds.

Italy 33/1 - not the most glamorous squad but a pretty solid core of juventus defenders and pirlo and de rossi. I expect them to reach the quarters and from there anything is possible with a sturdy defence.

Portugal 33/1 - a couple weaknesses in the squad but theres the makings of a pretty good eleven. Theyve come close a few times and with ronaldo in the form of his life theyre deffo capable of winning a couple knockout ties. Like italy, i expect them to reach the quarters.

Croatia 125/1 - this one is a bit mad as i cant really see them winning and theyre in a difficult section of the draw, but i think theyre an under rated side with some real quality players. Worth a long shot punt at that price.

[Opr]

Ozil 7/2 anytime with Paddy looks pretty big. Boyles 15/8 the same bet.

Opr

[Dice75]

On the Boyles Special of Barca/Bayern & Arsenal -1 @ 15/2 for a bit of interest

[Flushdraw]

Arsenal 5/6 to lift the trophy now. Sounds good to me!

[mdoug]

hull 7/4 to lift the title now, green out!

[mdoug]

Neil Lennon next Norwich boss.. thoughts?

[Donk Magnet]

Neil Lennon next Norwich boss.. thoughts?

It's been doing the rounds alright but I don't think it will happen word is he's been given the money for hooper and snodgrass.

[mdoug]

It's been doing the rounds alright but I don't think it will happen word is he's been given the money for hooper and snodgrass.

what do you mean given the money for them? he resigned from celtic a few hours ago :P. he's 3/1 for norwich manager, tempting!!

[Donk Magnet]

what do you mean given the money for them? he resigned from celtic a few hours ago :P. he's 3/1 for norwich manager, tempting!!

Wow I'm not long awake. Dam nightshift in shock over that!
Actually can't believe that. Maybe Norwich is most likely destination.

[mdoug]

'Neil Adams has been confirmed as Norwich City manager on a three-year deal.'.... phew!!

Edit: a few k available at 1.01 on betfair if anyone wants some free money

[Opr]

Bet365 have the 50/50 offer for the final tomorrow in case anyone didn't see it.

http://www.bet365.com/extra/extra.aspx?ContentPath=Promotions,Soccer,ChampsLeagueFreeBet

Opr

[FeetMagic]

What are people going for in this? Extremely difficult to call; might put both bets on draw.

[Percy007]

I'm backing both on penalties.

[Percy007]

Over 2.5 goals in this friendly @ 6/4

Also having a bit on Turkey @ 8/5

[Percy007]

If only it could be like that all the time.

[mdoug]

A new team has earned my hatred. Empoli are my new enemies and I hope they get promoted just so I can see them relegated next season the bastards!!

On a serious note though, you should try and find their 2 goals tonight somewhere.. scorchers!

SPOILER

GFYE!!!!

Someone give me tips!

[Opr]

Strange transfer but it looks like Rickie Lambert is joining Liverpool. They look to be going to completely gut the squad of talent over the coming months. Do we expect any of it will be reinvested? They're currently 12-1 to get relegated next season.

Opr

[eamonhonda]

Strange transfer but it looks like Rickie Lambert is joining Liverpool. They look to be going to completely gut the squad of talent over the coming months. Do we expect any of it will be reinvested? They're currently 12-1 to get relegated next season.

Opr

9/2 now

[Flushdraw]

9/2 now

They're still 12/1 and the shortest i can see is 8/1

[eamonhonda]

They're still 12/1 and the shortest i can see is 8/1

My bad was looking at Sunderland, I.was thinkin it was really short. May order a thicker lense for the glasses

[conspicuous]

Strong England team out tonight at Wembley. I fancy them to win handy against Peru and have backed them -1 @ 4/5

[The Situation]

Strong England team. Not words I expected anyone to utter this summer.

[Flushdraw]

Could do with the Swiss scoring a few goals!

[NewApproach]

Hope England win 5-0, they might shorten up a bit in WC markets

[conspicuous]

Strong England team. Not words I expected anyone to utter this summer.

You'll hear plenty talk about strong England teams. Now strong England performances, thats a different matter

[Jam-Fly]

any insights on where Fabregas might be next season?

Barcelona still slightly odds-in. United are 2/1 and Arsenal 11/4.

[kaiser soze]

any insights on where Fabregas might be next season?

Barcelona still slightly odds-in. United are 2/1 and Arsenal 11/4.

Supposedly not in barcas plans this year, lvg says he's not interested in him for united,going back to the club he loves arsenal might not be a bad bet.

[Jam-Fly]

Supposedly not in barcas plans this year, lvg says he's not interested in him for united,going back to the club he loves arsenal might not be a bad bet.

ya I think at this stage, Barca can't be odds on to be his next club next season, which means there has to be value somewhere else

[kaiser soze]

I think I might have a nibble at 11/4 arsenal myself no question wenger would welcome him with open arms and cesc might like to finish his career were he is adored.

[Dice75]

Gonna wait on team news but Equador to beat the English @3's might be worth a nibble.

3pm kickoff in Miami, 30 degrees & 85%+ humidity & match on ITV so on for a bit of interest.

[mdoug]

Portugal to score in the second half at 3/4 on betway is looking a very nice bet for tonight

[luckforsome]

...fuck sake...could get demolished if next 88 minutes are anything to go by...3 mistakes already...

[mdoug]

Portugal to score in the second half at 3/4 on betway is looking a very nice bet for tonight

Never in doubt
Ship Ship

SPOILER

[shanboghted]

How come the messi/argentina double is only 14/1 on paddys? Should it not be closer to 30/1 considering the odds of both..

[Opr]

How come the messi/argentina double is only 14/1 on paddys? Should it not be closer to 30/1 considering the odds of both..

It's best priced 16's. If two events are related and the chance of the second event happening is related to the first and vice versa, then the odds offered against are not simply multiplied. It's priced up at whatever odds it's felt reflects that it's a related event.

Opr

[The Situation]

James Rodriguez at 4/1 for the golden ball(player of the tournament) is ludicrous imo, he should be 20/1+, you're not winning this getting knocked out in the quarters.

Took David Luiz at 8's. He's been quite impressive so far, one of the few flamboyant players in that squad, imo hugely underrated by many defensively too. He's also conducted himself with notable class during the tournament which can only help him get votes.

[The Situation]

Pinnacle twitter revealing only 13.8% of their "to advance" bets have been on Brazil for tonight's match and only 16.5% are with the host on the spread. Truly staggering. Very much with the minority myself on the spread.

[NewApproach]

Pinnacle twitter revealing only 13.8% of their "to advance" bets have been on Brazil for tonight's match and only 16.5% are with the host on the spread. Truly staggering. Very much with the minority myself on the spread.

They said something like 89% of ats bets were on Colombia vs Brazil. I must have underestimated the affect of recency bias in regular punters!

[Flushdraw]

Suarez to score Over/Under 185 La Liga goals both at 10/11 for anyone that fancies tieing their money up for years!

[TheJiggaman]

Suarez to score Over/Under 185 La Liga goals both at 10/11 for anyone that fancies tieing their money up for years!

Overs is the lay of the century.

Or indeed unders is the back of the century.