Football-betting thread

[Flushdraw]

Spain -8 v Tahiti @ 11/10 seems juicy. Nigeria should have easily had 12 and Spain won't be anywhere near as wasteful

[Jam-Fly]

is there any worries of compassion coming into play? If their lives depended on it, I'm sure they could probably put 15 past them on a good day, but at what stage will they take their foot off the gas? Spain -7 at evs looks great.


also, I posted the exact same thing on Facebook after the Nig-Tah match. Refs can't just not give injury time if they don't feel like it.

[Flushdraw]

is there any worries of compassion coming into play? If their lives depended on it, I'm sure they could probably put 15 past them on a good day, but at what stage will they take their foot off the gas? Spain -7 at evs looks great.


also, I posted the exact same thing on Facebook after the Nig-Tah match. Refs can't just not give injury time if they don't feel like it.

They're international games and every goal scored will go into the record book. Maybe Spain won't put out a full team, but if players have a chance to put a hattrick on their record, they're going to do it. Can see them trying some funky moves and attacks, but think they'll go for goal once it's in sight. Will be like a training match and can see Spain beating the handicap

[Guest]

Spain -8 v Tahiti @ 11/10 seems juicy. Nigeria should have easily had 12 and Spain won't be anywhere near as wasteful

Do you any particular dislike for money or is it just a general thing?

[The Situation]

They only scored two against Haiti who are a pretty base level side, don't think anyone doubts they could run up double figures here if they wanted to but they'll prob save the Tahitians the embarrassment of a absolute trashing.

[The Situation]

Am I looking at this Tahiti game completely wrong or is under 6.5 goals at 11/4 not lump worthy considering what they've done to atrocious teams in the past, i.e not humiliating them like they're obviously capable of doing or are Tahiti on the next level of terrible?

[Micknail]

Am I looking at this Tahiti game completely wrong or is under 6.5 goals at 11/4 not lump worthy considering what they've done to atrocious teams in the past, i.e not humiliating them like they're obviously capable of doing or are Tahiti on the next level of terrible?

I reckon the fact the Nigeria put 6 past them will mean Spain will put at least 6 on the board. Marker etc.

[3Bet]

Its a terrible match for betting.

[The Situation]

It's probably the most interesting game from a betting perspective I've seen in a long time. So much divided opinion, most sharps ploughing into the unders markets though.

Also watch the top goal scorer market move as soon as teams are announced.

[Donk Magnet]

How about under 9.5 goals at 1/2 with pp?

[Jam-Fly]

Am I looking at this Tahiti game completely wrong or is under 6.5 goals at 11/4 not lump worthy considering what they've done to atrocious teams in the past, i.e not humiliating them like they're obviously capable of doing or are Tahiti on the next level of terrible?

I dunno, Tahiti do seem to be the next level of terrible. I had a look at the world rankings and there's actually some not terrible teams near them (e.g. Cyprus or just 16 places ahead of them). That said, I think the reason their world ranking is so high is because of where they play. They get to play other island teams on a consistent basis so to say San Marino are 70 odd places worse than them is probably unfair.

From what I actually saw of them, they looked woeful. Worse than the San Marinos or Andorras that I'd see in the UEFA qualifiers. Add to the fact that Nigeria aren't Spain and I really think it is a case of Tahiti being the next level of terrible.

I reckon the fact the Nigeria put 6 past them will mean Spain will put at least 6 on the board. Marker etc.

yeah, I think Spain will at least get 6. Getting less than what Nigeria got would almost be seen as an embarrassment to Spain

Its a terrible match for betting.

Come on, how often is -7 odds on and 17-0 less than 100-1!!

[Jam-Fly]

Oh also, the bet for the match imo has to be the half time score market on betfair. Any unquoted score is 1.27 (1/4). This bet is effectively saying Spain will score 3 goals in the first half.

[The Situation]

I dunno, Tahiti do seem to be the next level of terrible. I had a look at the world rankings and there's actually some not terrible teams near them (e.g. Cyprus or just 16 places ahead of them). That said, I think the reason their world ranking is so high is because of where they play. They get to play other island teams on a consistent basis so to say San Marino are 70 odd places worse than them is probably unfair.

From what I actually saw of them, they looked woeful. Worse than the San Marinos or Andorras that I'd see in the UEFA qualifiers. Add to the fact that Nigeria aren't Spain and I really think it is a case of Tahiti being the next level of terrible.

See people think because they can very easily run riot means they will. They've had plenty of similar chances to inflict trouncings over the years and it hasn't been the strength of the opposition that stopped them doing it, it was them stopping looking for goals. Really don't think the world and European champions have anything to prove either so can't see them being in competition with Nigeria tbh.

Anyway I settled for the under 8.5 goals market around evs. GL to anyone involved should be a fun sweat either way

[Flushdraw]

In June last year, Tahiti beat Samoa 10-1 and they beat Kiribati 17-1 and Cook Islands 7-0 the year before. Take no prisoners Spain, they do it to others

Edit - Kiribati's full results list is pretty special

[Jam-Fly]

See people think because they can very easily run riot means they will. They've had plenty of similar chances to inflict trouncings over the years and it hasn't been the strength of the opposition that stopped them doing it, it was them stopping looking for goals. Really don't think the world and European champions have anything to prove either so can't see them being in competition with Nigeria tbh.

Anyway I settled for the under 8.5 goals market around evs. GL to anyone involved should be a fun sweat either way

ya I definitely am worried myself that Spain will take the foot off the gas. I guess that's what makes it a tough one to call, you're not just worried about judging the quality of the teams!

[Jam-Fly]

In June last year, Tahiti beat Samoa 10-1 and they beat Kiribati 17-1 and Cook Islands 7-0 the year before. Take no prisoners Spain, they do it to others

Edit - Kiribati's full results list is pretty special

Jesus, I assume Kiribati would struggle in 2A in Limerick!


and also, if the Spanish players knew that, I'd say it might actually make them more inclined to go all out. Hopefully one of the Tahitians slags Del Bosque's mother or something, give Spain some motivation to destroy them!

[FeetMagic]

On the unders for the sweat.

[Opr]

Is Torres expected to start the rest of Spain's matches? He starts tonight and you'd expect if things went well he could put a few past these and is 14/1 for tournament top scorer?

Opr

[LuckyLloyd]

Lots of fish money floating about. Spain are going to eviscerate them.

[Jam-Fly]

Is Torres expected to start the rest of Spain's matches? He starts tonight and you'd expect if things went well he could put a few past these and is 14/1 for tournament top scorer?

Opr

all other things being equal, I'd imagine Soldado is the first choice for the tournament. But 14/1 when Torres could have a 3 goal head start is tough to pass up imo

[Flushdraw]

Come on, how often is -7 odds on and 17-0 less than 100-1!!

Spain to score 20+ goals is only 25/1 with Skybet. 50/1 to score 32+ goals

[Jam-Fly]

Is Torres expected to start the rest of Spain's matches? He starts tonight and you'd expect if things went well he could put a few past these and is 14/1 for tournament top scorer?

Opr

is this on Boyles? I see it on oddschecker but can't find it on Boyles site

[mdoug]

Oh also, the bet for the match imo has to be the half time score market on betfair. Any unquoted score is 1.27 (1/4). This bet is effectively saying Spain will score 3 goals in the first half.

A much appreciated tip, lumping on this and also spain to win the group I figure is an absolute certainty so they are my only 2 confederations bets, profits are nice

[bohsman]

Am I looking at this Tahiti game completely wrong or is under 6.5 goals at 11/4 not lump worthy considering what they've done to atrocious teams in the past, i.e not humiliating them like they're obviously capable of doing or are Tahiti on the next level of terrible?

I like your way of thinking on these types of games, "rigged" games etc, also layed Villa and Torres at 3.3 or so on the to score a hat trick markets. As long as they don't both score them it's all good.

Have got on Suarez to be top scorer ahead of their game v Tahiti as well

[The Situation]

How can they slaughter them now after they came baring gifts?

[LuckyLloyd]

How can they slaughter them now after they came baring gifts?

Better get ready to settle into our new football forum imo.

Jaysus goalkeeping

[Jam-Fly]

is this on Boyles? I see it on oddschecker but can't find it on Boyles site

didn't get this bet on...I'll admit I'll be quite tilted if it comes to fruition!

[mdoug]

didn't get this bet on...I'll admit I'll be quite tilted if it comes to fruition!

it wasn't on boyles, I searched the entire site even in the classic version - think it was taken down as it was so close to kickoff. I did get 12's elsewhere though for a small bit
UL

[bohsman]

Should really substitute Torres or villa at ht please.

[Micknail]

Should really substitute Torres or villa at ht please.

Squeaky bum time for the next 45 mins!

[FeetMagic]

8-0 will be the score.

[Micknail]

#PrayforBohsman

[The Situation]

Oh dear.

[LuckyLloyd]

Fish money.

[FeetMagic]

Fish money.

Harsh!

[Micknail]

Spain -8 v Tahiti @ 11/10 seems juicy. Nigeria should have easily had 12 and Spain won't be anywhere near as wasteful

I reckon the fact the Nigeria put 6 past them will mean Spain will put at least 6 on the board. Marker etc.

Oh also, the bet for the match imo has to be the half time score market on betfair. Any unquoted score is 1.27 (1/4). This bet is effectively saying Spain will score 3 goals in the first half.

Lots of fish money floating about. Spain are going to eviscerate them.

Fish money.

=

[bohsman]

I love it when a plan comes together.

[PunterAssist]

Japan v Mexico

The two sides meet in the Confederations cup at Estadio Governador to decide third position in Group A. Both sides have lost their opening games however Japan scored 3 goals against a good Italian team and were unlucky not to get something out of the match after hitting the woodwork 3 times however neither can catch Brazil and Italy after they won their opening games. Japan can be forgiven for their poor performance against Brazil in the opening match having played a world cup qualifier a few days before flying to Brazil and the jet lag clearly affected them in the second half. Generally Japan is very strong in defense and Mexico have failed to score in 6 of their last 10 match.

Japan did really well to win the 2011 Asia Cup, while excellent performances in the 2014 World Cup qualifiers saw them secure their berth at the tournament finals before anyone else.

Mexico have won only 1 games in their last 11 in all competitions in a run that included some very weak South American opposition. While Japan have only won 5 from their last 11 their opposition has been of a stonger calibre and Japans performances have been of a higher quality of they have a battling team mentality against a Mexican team that rely too heavily on Manchester Uniteds Javier Hernandez whose style of play does not adapt well to Mexicos deep lying counter attacking style and in this competition he has had to drop back to get the ball which negates his effective goal poaching style in the opposition box.

I expect this to happen again as Japan are a very energetic team and will push Mexico back with their speed and top quality ball control.

Probable Japan starting line-up (4-2-3-1): Kawashima – Uchida, Konno, Yoshida, Nagatomo – Endo, Hosogai – Okazaki, Honda, Kagawa – Maeda.

Probable Mexico starting line-up (4-2-3-1): Corona – Mier, Rodriguez, Moreno, Salcido – Torrado, Herrera – Barrera, Dos Santos, Guardado – Hernandez.

International Confederations Cup - Japan v Mexico - Japan To Win 'Draw No Bet' - 1.91 BetVictor / Coral / William Hill

[The Situation]

Hearing Uruguay will prob be starting Suarez and Abel Hernandez up front tonight. Could do worse than 100/1 Hernandez top goalscorer given the opportunity for goals in this game.

[Micknail]

Hearing Uruguay will prob be starting Suarez and Abel Hernandez up front tonight. Could do worse than 100/1 Hernandez top goalscorer given the opportunity for goals in this game.

Are we banking on him getting 6ish goals tonight to win the golden boot, because I don't think they would get past Brazil in the semi.
Back to lay I suppose?

[Flushdraw]

Hearing Uruguay will prob be starting Suarez and Abel Hernandez up front tonight. Could do worse than 100/1 Hernandez top goalscorer given the opportunity for goals in this game.

Tahiti's 3rd choice keeper getting a game tonight aswel

[conspicuous]

Hearing Uruguay will prob be starting Suarez and Abel Hernandez up front tonight. Could do worse than 100/1 Hernandez top goalscorer given the opportunity for goals in this game.

Nice shout, took your advice and put a sneaky tenner on him. Let's hope for another hat trick in the second half

[The Situation]

Nice shout, took your advice and put a sneaky tenner on him. Let's hope for another hat trick in the second half

Number 4.

Fecking Torres scored for Spain though.

[Guest]

Hearing Uruguay will prob be starting Suarez and Abel Hernandez up front tonight. Could do worse than 100/1 Hernandez top goalscorer given the opportunity for goals in this game.

On the assumption that goals from the 3rd/4th place game count, I was quite happy to see that Brazil goal go in tonight

You would think/hope he will get some action in that game!

[Semibluff]

besta luck with that one lads!

i took forlan at 33s big enough EW when he got named for nigeria game. He bangs 1 in, im in to 6s in some places with tahiti to come

then the team news comes along and you fukrs and your Abel hernandez screw me over!

you's are a cert for a place btw! wish i saw this thread (or the team before the game)

well done and besta luck!

[Percy007]

Did Dundalk play away in Limerick last night?

Anyway they are at home to Glentoran today in a friendly as Glentoran prepare for Europe. PP have Glentoran priced up at 6/4........ surely this has to be a bet as they will be playing Dundalk reserves/youth? Anyone shed any light on the Dundalk team?

[Percy007]

Few bets on Confed final.

Fred anytime Spain win 25/1
Arbeloa to be booked 2/1
David Luiz to be booked 2/1
Over 2.5 Goals - 10 Or Less Corners - 40 Or More Booking Points 4/1

[Percy007]

Few bets on Confed final.

Fred anytime Spain win 25/1
Arbeloa to be booked 2/1
David Luiz to be booked 2/1
Over 2.5 Goals - 10 Or Less Corners - 40 Or More Booking Points 4/1

Not a bad 1st 17mins

[PunterAssist]

Japanese J-League - Nagoya Grampus v Kashima Antlers - Over 2.5,3.0 Asian Goal Line @ 2.0 (Bet365)

Japanese J-League - Shimizu S-Pulse v FC Tokyo - Over 2.0 Asian Goal Line @ 1.35 (Bet365)

Japanese J-League - Kawasaki Frontale v Shonan Bellmare - Kawasaki Frontale -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.625 (Bet365)

Treble @ 4.39 (Bet365)

@PunterAssist

[smoothcall]

Not a good sign when a tipsters giving you bet365 prices!

[Wesley Harms]

Not a good sign when a tipsters giving you bet365 prices!

Ah Bet £3.65 my old foe

[PunterAssist]

Not a good sign when a tipsters giving you bet365 prices!

The average bettor who may follow these selections is in no danger of having their account limited in over 95% of cases but the post might draw your attention to the games where you will find a good bet elsewhere.

[The Situation]

The average bettor who may follow these selections is in no danger of having their account limited in over 95% of cases but the post might draw your attention to the games where you will find a good bet elsewhere.

I think we'll all agree on that

[PunterAssist]

I think we'll all agree on that

Out of curiousity which of the bets do you think are -EV and what price would you need to back them?

[mdoug]

Japanese J-League - Nagoya Grampus v Kashima Antlers - Over 2.5,3.0 Asian Goal Line @ 2.0 (Bet365)

Japanese J-League - Shimizu S-Pulse v FC Tokyo - Over 2.0 Asian Goal Line @ 1.35 (Bet365)

Japanese J-League - Kawasaki Frontale v Shonan Bellmare - Kawasaki Frontale -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.625 (Bet365)

Treble @ 4.39 (Bet365)

@PunterAssist

kawasaki haven't beaten a single team below them in the league by more than 1 goal at home in 2013 in at least 5 attempts

not a huge fan of the first bet either but nothing huge against it
that is all, few pints have been had and I don't what what an asian handicap is really, I do know a very slow korean lad though

[PunterAssist]

The Kawasaki bet has more to do with the quality of the opposition, especially away and both teams current form. I went for the -1 asian handicap because as you say Kawasaki do get more defensive when the have the lead and the -1 asian handicap means that part of the treble is voided if Kawasaki win by exactly 1 goal.

[PunterAssist]

Japanese J-League - Kashiwa Reysol v Sagan Tosu - Over 2.5, 3 Asian Goal Line @ 1.675 (Bet365)

Japanese J-League - Kashima Antlers v Omiya Ardija - Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 (Bet365)

Japanese J-League - Jubilo Iwata v Nagoya Grampus - Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.775 (Bet365)

[KevIRL]

Todays mug accum

Wigan, QPR, Leeds and Preston

be rich

[kaiser soze]

That's dedication kev mug acc on the fist day goodluck with it.

[mdoug]

similar start to yourself kev

wigan qpr double then wigan + qpr + watford + charlton + possibly brighton but can't find the slip and can't remember if I added them or not in the end, first 4 for sure