Originally posted by CheckRaise
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Originally posted by CheckRaise View PostThe administrator has the power to terminate contracts of employment but tomorrow would be a bit early for that I would say. Is the Daily Mail scaremongering?
rumours that players who will be out of contract in the summer will be first to go, that includes Papac, Healy, Lafferty and Aluko. It could well be happening tomorrow.Is that how you crash a wedding? yes it is, Bionic Barry, yes it is.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostUnders tonight in the Inter Bolonga at evs is a good bit too big. Milito the only player whose scored in any of Inters last 5 games isn't in the squad. Bolonga score less than a goal a game this season and don't concede much either.
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Originally posted by CheckRaiseCan't fault that bet on paper but Motta is a big miss when looking at the unders and Sneijder, Forlan and Pazzini can do a lot of damage.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by CheckRaise View PostA word of warning, I was thinking of backing Inter to beat Palermo but Motta has been sold to PSG (team to watch for the second half of the season).
Inter Milan won 90% of their Serie A games with Thiago Motta this term (9/10) and just 20% without him (2/10).
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Napoli are the boogie team of Serie A from a betting point of view. They have a top team and Cavani is an absolute beast but they can blow either very hot or very cold. They are used to dominating possession in their games which they won't get as easily against Chelsea and a central defender of Terrys experience can handle Cavanis movement and threat from set pieces.
I wouldn't have a "substantial" bet on them but at 6/4 with powers they may be worth a bet but I would see more value in the 4/6 DNB.
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Originally posted by CheckRaise View PostNapoli are the boogie team of Serie A from a betting point of view. They have a top team and Cavani is an absolute beast but they can blow either very hot or very cold. They are used to dominating possession in their games which they won't get as easily against Chelsea and a central defender of Terrys experience can handle Cavanis movement and threat from set pieces.
I wouldn't have a "substantial" bet on them but at 6/4 with powers they may be worth a bet but I would see more value in the 4/6 DNB.
Of course it ends 3-0 in their favour! I tend to think of them as more a counter attacking team, for example against Man city in the group stages.
On the Terry part, Chelsea have a great record defending from set pieces, yet I think that cavani's in play movement will unnerve the error prone defence alot more than set pieces.
P.s. Fiorentina have really regressed in the last 2 years, I thought they could have become European mainstays with a young attacking team of Jovetic, Vargas, etc.﴾͡๏̯͡๏﴿
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Originally posted by CheckRaise View PostNapoli are the boogie team of Serie A from a betting point of view. They have a top team and Cavani is an absolute beast but they can blow either very hot or very cold. They are used to dominating possession in their games which they won't get as easily against Chelsea and a central defender of Terrys experience can handle Cavanis movement and threat from set pieces.
I wouldn't have a "substantial" bet on them but at 6/4 with powers they may be worth a bet but I would see more value in the 4/6 DNB.
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real madrid -1 at 6/5 surley reps good value considering cska are only back from a winter break and are missing Russia goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev, a 16 year old is their only replacement ,Vagner Love is gone back to brazil, Keisuke Honda and Mark Gonzalez are out leaving cska pretty depleted. if madrid wanted to they could win this by 2 or 3
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Originally posted by CheckRaise View PostWithout knowing the odds and the percentage of the time you expect to win nobody can tell you if its a reasonable stake.
Just use an online Kelly Criterion calculator and use a 1/4 Kelly stake.
Just do singles. Its a marathon not a sprint.
far too nitty for my likin,still gutted i didnt lump napoli last night
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Originally posted by blanchero View Postinteresting reading but 1/4 kelly stakes,just do singles
far too nitty for my likin,still gutted i didnt lump napoli last night
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Originally posted by CheckRaise View PostIf you use a bank betting percentage and you find a profitable bet but you bet more than a fully kelly stake you will lose in the long run so its not a case of the more you bet the more you win.
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Originally posted by A_CitizenErased View PostHave Hernandez first goal scorer for 50 quid at 3/1
Small tenner four fold then... Man Utd, Olympiacos, Besiktas and Athletico Madrid.
Down for the night so far thanks to Simon Whitlock so lets do this!
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Originally posted by A_CitizenErased View PostHave Hernandez first goal scorer for 50 quid at 3/1
Small tenner four fold then... Man Utd, Olympiacos, Besiktas and Athletico Madrid.
Down for the night so far thanks to Simon Whitlock so lets do this!
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Anyone want to take a shot at the card index for the Milan v Juventus game?
Real Betis v Getafe seems to be a game primed for a lot of cards.Last edited by CheckRaise; 24-02-12, 13:12.
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Originally posted by CheckRaise View PostAnyone want to take a shot at the card index for the Milan v Juventus game?
Real Betis v Getafe seems to be a game primed for a lot of cards.
But if you look at the more competitive clashes between fellow top sides, probably a more accurate gauge, Milan have received 3.375 cards per game against sides in the top 7(including both reds) and Juventus have received 2.43 per game against the top seven sides. So that's a combined average of 5.8 cards per game.
Referee Taglianvento has a very similar average to that this season at 5.7 per game, the highest average in Serie A. He also had the highest last season, although this is partly due to getting a lot of the bigger games.
This is probably going to be the most intense game this season with so much on the line so you can see cards. Neither Ibra or Boateng are playing which reduces the possibility of a petulant red card in the game as they're both very prone to moments of madness.
So without looking I'd expect the line to be about 6ishProfit before people.
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I've managed to spin a 5er in 80 today... Looking at a very cautious accum to double it before I cash out... Anybody see anything going wrong with the following, pays roughly 11/10
Man City 1/5 (Home to Blackburn should be a certain win)
Leeds Utd/Draw (Warnocks first game in charge, Pompey in the midst of injury crisis/admin, also lost key striker Husselkepp to Birmingham yesterday)
England +9 vs Wales 4/11 (I actually think this is too close to call but they should certainly cover the +9 spread)
Anyone see any probs?? Cheers
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Going for the lump on this treble, pays about 4-1:
Huddersfield
Birmingham
Swindon
Also think Sheff Utd at 7/4 (with ladbrokes) is a great bet. Wednesday look to be in a steep decline recently (lost the last 3) and Utd are playing very well since the defeat to Charlton and have probably the best player in the division atm in Ched Evans who is in inspiring form. So will be having a little bet on them and a double with them an aldershot.
Good luck all with the weekends bets
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Originally posted by dannydiamond View PostTony Cascarino treble for the weekend, I like.
QPR win at home to Fulham.
Manyoo win away to Norwich.
Spurs away to Arsenal.
11/1 ish.
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Originally posted by KevIRL View PostScrew the other 2. QPR at home to Fulham is well worth a bet imo. Fulham so so shit away from home and QPR under relatively new mgt. 13/8 on PP, not sure about elsewhere, but I'll get on that.We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then is not an act, but a habit.
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Qpr was the stand out bet of the weekend for me when I first looked at book. I've changed my mind on account of a) London derby b) fulham players playing against a manager who walked out on them c) no Cisse d) even though fulham had a shocking 7 weeks away from home they're well organized under jol. I really think the bet of the wend is Liverpool ht/ft @ evens
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Originally posted by accomputers.ie View PostQpr was the stand out bet of the weekend for me when I first looked at book. I've changed my mind on account of a) London derby b) fulham players playing against a manager who walked out on them c) no Cisse d) even though fulham had a shocking 7 weeks away from home they're well organized under jol. I really think the bet of the wend is Liverpool ht/ft @ evens
Could never bet against Fulham. Their too sticky at times.
1-0 up.
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