Football-betting thread

[Pistol Peter]

Interesting table I got from an article. If someone knows of a site that updates these stats I would appreciate a link.

Not exactly what you want but whoscored is a great site for all sorts of stats, http://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252...ague-2011-2012 try that link anyway

[eamonhonda]

that 5/1 offer from pp for zenit and milan to win seemed like such a great bet, ragin i passed

[Zod]

The administrator has the power to terminate contracts of employment but tomorrow would be a bit early for that I would say. Is the Daily Mail scaremongering?

rumours that players who will be out of contract in the summer will be first to go, that includes Papac, Healy, Lafferty and Aluko. It could well be happening tomorrow.

[Zod]

Update: administrators press conference at 3.30, but it's not expected that players contracts will be looked at until next week.

[The Situation]

Unders tonight in the Inter Bolonga at evs is a good bit too big. Milito the only player whose scored in any of Inters last 5 games isn't in the squad. Bolonga score less than a goal a game this season and don't concede much either.

[CheckRaise]

Unders tonight in the Inter Bolonga at evs is a good bit too big. Milito the only player whose scored in any of Inters last 5 games isn't in the squad. Bolonga score less than a goal a game this season and don't concede much either.

Can't fault that bet on paper but Motta is a big miss when looking at the unders and Sneijder, Forlan and Pazzini can do a lot of damage adn the only decent teams Bologna have played away so far this season are Roma and Napoli on a downswing.

[The Situation]

Can't fault that bet on paper but Motta is a big miss when looking at the unders and Sneijder, Forlan and Pazzini can do a lot of damage.

Forlan has been very poor though, not helped by a lot of injuries and can't be match fit, similar story with Sneijder albeit possibly not to the same extent. Potential obviously there but weighing things up I've the unders mark about 1.8-1.85

[The Situation]

That was a bad couple of minutes to say the least. 0-2 bologna. Ranieri could be gone, Capello in.

[CheckRaise]

Its definitely a period to avoid betting on any Inter games. They are far too unpredictable lately.

[CheckRaise]

A word of warning, I was thinking of backing Inter to beat Palermo but Motta has been sold to PSG (team to watch for the second half of the season).

Inter Milan won 90% of their Serie A games with Thiago Motta this term (9/10) and just 20% without him (2/10).

When you look at those stats you see how important Motta is. Great signing for PSG.

[The Situation]

When you look at those stats you see how important Motta is. Great signing for PSG.

He was a nice signing for the Italian national side too.

[blanchero]

anybody on here with a good knowledge of italian football? reason being that im thinkin of havin substantial bet on napoli at 11/8 v chelsea,missed them at 13/8 before they whipped fiorentina and its bound to drop again after the latest chelsea debacle-my god they are shit

[Zod]

did anyone back my Kilmarnock bet?

[CheckRaise]

Napoli are the boogie team of Serie A from a betting point of view. They have a top team and Cavani is an absolute beast but they can blow either very hot or very cold. They are used to dominating possession in their games which they won't get as easily against Chelsea and a central defender of Terrys experience can handle Cavanis movement and threat from set pieces.

I wouldn't have a "substantial" bet on them but at 6/4 with powers they may be worth a bet but I would see more value in the 4/6 DNB.

[KevIRL]

did anyone back my Kilmarnock bet?

yep n1

[CheckRaise]

coquelin just went off injured, defenders are getting scarse.

song and djourou against bale, VDV, Modric, Saha and Adebayor.

3.25. Nice.

[FeetMagic]

did anyone back my Kilmarnock bet?

Yup ty!

[Micknail]

Napoli are the boogie team of Serie A from a betting point of view. They have a top team and Cavani is an absolute beast but they can blow either very hot or very cold. They are used to dominating possession in their games which they won't get as easily against Chelsea and a central defender of Terrys experience can handle Cavanis movement and threat from set pieces.

I wouldn't have a "substantial" bet on them but at 6/4 with powers they may be worth a bet but I would see more value in the 4/6 DNB.

Against Fiorentina they had 42% possession and a fairly poor pass success rate.
Of course it ends 3-0 in their favour! I tend to think of them as more a counter attacking team, for example against Man city in the group stages.
On the Terry part, Chelsea have a great record defending from set pieces, yet I think that cavani's in play movement will unnerve the error prone defence alot more than set pieces.

P.s. Fiorentina have really regressed in the last 2 years, I thought they could have become European mainstays with a young attacking team of Jovetic, Vargas, etc.

[blanchero]

Napoli are the boogie team of Serie A from a betting point of view. They have a top team and Cavani is an absolute beast but they can blow either very hot or very cold. They are used to dominating possession in their games which they won't get as easily against Chelsea and a central defender of Terrys experience can handle Cavanis movement and threat from set pieces.

I wouldn't have a "substantial" bet on them but at 6/4 with powers they may be worth a bet but I would see more value in the 4/6 DNB.

knew that 11/8 wouldnt last long,in to 13/10 and imagine it will only get worse,got my usual max bet on anyway which leads to my next point - been using a system of sorts for almost a year now,no more than 10% of my roll on a single bet,5% on a double,3% on a treble etc. what do ye think of this?

[CheckRaise]

Without knowing the odds and the percentage of the time you expect to win nobody can tell you if its a reasonable stake.

Just use an online Kelly Criterion calculator and use a 1/4 Kelly stake.

Just do singles. Its a marathon not a sprint.

[Zod]

posted in the BBV:

ICT are currently 4/1 (3/1) for the draw.

Rangers are currently missing several first team players with the potential of the administrator letting some go this week.

might be worth a few sheckels.

[KevIRL]

posted in the BBV:

ICT are currently 4/1 (3/1) for the draw.

Rangers are currently missing several first team players with the potential of the administrator letting some go this week.

might be worth a few sheckels.

In Zod we trust. On it

[shanboghted]

real madrid -1 at 6/5 surley reps good value considering cska are only back from a winter break and are missing Russia goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev, a 16 year old is their only replacement ,Vagner Love is gone back to brazil, Keisuke Honda and Mark Gonzalez are out leaving cska pretty depleted. if madrid wanted to they could win this by 2 or 3

[eoghan104]

Is Napoli at 7/5 with PP not a huge price? Chelsea having difficulties and Napoli unbeaten at home in Europe since 1994.......

[CheckRaise]

John Terry to miss the match tonight with a knee injury and up to 2 months.

[FeetMagic]

Is Napoli at 7/5 with PP not a huge price? Chelsea having difficulties and Napoli unbeaten at home in Europe since 1994.......

All aboard the Napoli train

On 3-1 aswell for the lols.

[CheckRaise]

Will be taking the DNB on this one.

The stats say this should be an unders game.

[A_CitizenErased]

I have Birmingham, Mk Dons, Napoli and Real Madrid four fold. 20 euro on for a fun mug bet.

[CheckRaise]

At least after the return legs we can now look forward to watching Barcelona, Bayern, Milan, Madrid and Napoli on a Tuesday/Wednesday instead of watching Man Utd beat some eastern European minnows.

Well done on Napoli.

[blanchero]

Without knowing the odds and the percentage of the time you expect to win nobody can tell you if its a reasonable stake.

Just use an online Kelly Criterion calculator and use a 1/4 Kelly stake.

Just do singles. Its a marathon not a sprint.

interesting reading but 1/4 kelly stakes,just do singles
far too nitty for my likin,still gutted i didnt lump napoli last night

[Semibluff]

well said CheckR

Id normally half the Kelly Criteria for a bet (staking wise) but is a good way to go about it!

[CheckRaise]

well said CheckR

Id normally half the Kelly Criteria for a bet (staking wise) but is a good way to go about it!

Most people will overestimate their winning percentages so its better to advise the 1/4 stake.

[CheckRaise]

interesting reading but 1/4 kelly stakes,just do singles
far too nitty for my likin,still gutted i didnt lump napoli last night

If you use a bank betting percentage and you find a profitable bet but you bet more than a fully kelly stake you will lose in the long run so its not a case of the more you bet the more you win.

[CheckRaise]

Odds on Marseille are dropping fast. 80.36% of bets in the win-draw-win market are on Marseille at a general price of 1.91. People are gamboooooling big without any team news.

[blanchero]

If you use a bank betting percentage and you find a profitable bet but you bet more than a fully kelly stake you will lose in the long run so its not a case of the more you bet the more you win.

my bet wouldnt have come close to a full kelly stake anyway but i can definetly appreciate the long term value of a such a system and is something i plan on incorporating into my betting in the future,cheers for the heads up on it btw!

[CheckRaise]

rooney out of the ajax match. would love to see an upset.

[Opr]

Paul Pogba worth a few quid as anytime scorer for United tomorrow night at 5/1. Confirmed that he will be starting and has a serious right peg on him.

Edit - Confirmed should probably = very likely

Opr

[Dice75]

Streller @ 10's worth a few bob for a bit of interest for 1st scorer.

[The Situation]

Found myself needing an interest bet tonight too. Bayern over 1.5 goals.

[A_CitizenErased]

Burnley at home to Millwall on Saturday is 11/10. This is my lump for the weekend. Great bet imo.

[CheckRaise]

Anyone with any expertise in pricing up the card index markets?

I'm looking at the Sporting Lisbon v Legia Warsaw game.

This is the referee: Link

[Opr]

Void bet as Pogba not in the squad.

Javier Hernandez still 11/10 anytime with boyles while odds on with everyone else. Good few bookies have him as low as 8/11.

Opr

[A_CitizenErased]

Have Hernandez first goal scorer for 50 quid at 3/1

Small tenner four fold then... Man Utd, Olympiacos, Besiktas and Athletico Madrid.

Down for the night so far thanks to Simon Whitlock so lets do this!

[Wesley Harms]

Have Hernandez first goal scorer for 50 quid at 3/1

Small tenner four fold then... Man Utd, Olympiacos, Besiktas and Athletico Madrid.

Down for the night so far thanks to Simon Whitlock so lets do this!

50 bucks on a first goalscorer? Have you lost the plot or do you dislike money

[A_CitizenErased]

50 bucks on a first goalscorer? Have you lost the plot or do you dislike money

Free bet on Betfred. Keep all winnings except no stakeback.

[A_CitizenErased]

Have Hernandez first goal scorer for 50 quid at 3/1

Small tenner four fold then... Man Utd, Olympiacos, Besiktas and Athletico Madrid.

Down for the night so far thanks to Simon Whitlock so lets do this!

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

[Guest]

well played, nice bet

[CheckRaise]

Anyone with any expertise in pricing up the card index markets?

I'm looking at the Sporting Lisbon v Legia Warsaw game.

This is the referee: Link

11 yellows. This is a market I have to get to know.

[CheckRaise]

Anyone want to take a shot at the card index for the Milan v Juventus game?

Real Betis v Getafe seems to be a game primed for a lot of cards.

[The Situation]

Anyone want to take a shot at the card index for the Milan v Juventus game?

Real Betis v Getafe seems to be a game primed for a lot of cards.

Just a quick estimation- Milan have received 52 cards(50y 2r) this season which is 2.166 cards per game. Juventus have only received 45 (44y 1r) which is 1.956 cards per game. Combined average of 4.12 cards a game.

But if you look at the more competitive clashes between fellow top sides, probably a more accurate gauge, Milan have received 3.375 cards per game against sides in the top 7(including both reds) and Juventus have received 2.43 per game against the top seven sides. So that's a combined average of 5.8 cards per game.

Referee Taglianvento has a very similar average to that this season at 5.7 per game, the highest average in Serie A. He also had the highest last season, although this is partly due to getting a lot of the bigger games.

This is probably going to be the most intense game this season with so much on the line so you can see cards. Neither Ibra or Boateng are playing which reduces the possibility of a petulant red card in the game as they're both very prone to moments of madness.

So without looking I'd expect the line to be about 6ish

[CheckRaise]

I think you would need a far more in-depth knowledge of each team than you need for goals/win-draw-win to do the card index successfully. It is something I will focus on next season.

[Terry Phelan]

I've managed to spin a 5er in 80 today... Looking at a very cautious accum to double it before I cash out... Anybody see anything going wrong with the following, pays roughly 11/10

Man City 1/5 (Home to Blackburn should be a certain win)

Leeds Utd/Draw (Warnocks first game in charge, Pompey in the midst of injury crisis/admin, also lost key striker Husselkepp to Birmingham yesterday)

England +9 vs Wales 4/11 (I actually think this is too close to call but they should certainly cover the +9 spread)

Anyone see any probs?? Cheers

[A_CitizenErased]

Iv 10er on Tottenham and Sunderland. Pays 90 quid... nice bit of value there. West Brom are the 3rd worst team at home and Arsenal should be taken out by Spurs

[dannydiamond]

Tony Cascarino treble for the weekend, I like.

QPR win at home to Fulham.
Manyoo win away to Norwich.
Spurs away to Arsenal.

11/1 ish.

[burkeyoa]

Going for the lump on this treble, pays about 4-1:

Huddersfield
Birmingham
Swindon

Also think Sheff Utd at 7/4 (with ladbrokes) is a great bet. Wednesday look to be in a steep decline recently (lost the last 3) and Utd are playing very well since the defeat to Charlton and have probably the best player in the division atm in Ched Evans who is in inspiring form. So will be having a little bet on them and a double with them an aldershot.

Good luck all with the weekends bets

[KevIRL]

Tony Cascarino treble for the weekend, I like.

QPR win at home to Fulham.
Manyoo win away to Norwich.
Spurs away to Arsenal.

11/1 ish.

Screw the other 2. QPR at home to Fulham is well worth a bet imo. Fulham so so shit away from home and QPR under relatively new mgt. 13/8 on PP, not sure about elsewhere, but I'll get on that.

[dannydiamond]

Screw the other 2. QPR at home to Fulham is well worth a bet imo. Fulham so so shit away from home and QPR under relatively new mgt. 13/8 on PP, not sure about elsewhere, but I'll get on that.

Aye, QPR is my lock of the three!

[accomputers.ie]

Qpr was the stand out bet of the weekend for me when I first looked at book. I've changed my mind on account of a) London derby b) fulham players playing against a manager who walked out on them c) no Cisse d) even though fulham had a shocking 7 weeks away from home they're well organized under jol. I really think the bet of the wend is Liverpool ht/ft @ evens

[A_CitizenErased]

Qpr was the stand out bet of the weekend for me when I first looked at book. I've changed my mind on account of a) London derby b) fulham players playing against a manager who walked out on them c) no Cisse d) even though fulham had a shocking 7 weeks away from home they're well organized under jol. I really think the bet of the wend is Liverpool ht/ft @ evens

Good shout bud.

Could never bet against Fulham. Their too sticky at times.

1-0 up.

[A_CitizenErased]

Last bets for the night that will hopefully come good when I get home. Off down to the Pairc in a bit for Cork vs Waterford