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Originally posted by The Situation View PostThey were best price on Benzema earlier so I've got him and Sanchez both at 7's. Wouldn't usually bet on FG but with Messi's goal record it makes it very low risk and +ev.
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Originally posted by gunnaflip View Postlot of bad prices for football these days. forces you to pick far too many teams
Man Utd
Man City
Chelsea
Arsenal
Tottenham
Barcelona
Read Madrid
€10 accumulator
At first look the only thing that appeals to me is overs in the Norwich-Chelsea game and even at that the value is only marginal.
Look further afield if you want to make a bit of money.
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Originally posted by Semibluff View Postany opinions on arsenal game? surely united are getting a little too short for that game?
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Originally posted by Semibluff View Postany opinions on arsenal game? surely united are getting a little too short for that game?
Probability of BTTS or overs is higher imo with the current home/away fixture.
Recent form points to a high scoring game but I think the BTTS is slightly more EV than the higher odds for over 2.5.
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Originally posted by CheckRaise View PostI'm thinking about going both teams to score and with major defensive absences on both sides I don't think either can close up shop.
Probability of BTTS or overs is higher imo with the current home/away fixture.
Recent form points to a high scoring game but I think the BTTS is slightly more EV than the higher odds for over 2.5.
Wouldn't be mad about the Arsenal price SB. Arteta is a big loss in the middle, they struggled to retain possesion last week without him and with Willshire still out they've nobody to suitably fit that deep lying midfielder role. Ramsey is struggling of late too. United have Smalling and Jones
back which will obv strenghten them a bit. No bet for me.
Gonna lay QPR ~evs. Only the 1 win at home this season so far. Wigan have a full strength squad to pick from. QPR without Tarrabt and Traore who are at the ANC and arguably their best player this season Faurlin out injured. Gabbidon a doubt at CB too. Martinez's side are more used to a relagation battle having been in similar positions last couple of seasons so experience could be crucial in this battle. QPR also fielded a full stength team in the cup midweek so have less recovery time, albeit only a day. You'd think the new manager factor would be a bonus for QPR but they were very poor against Newcastle last week and could only scraped past MK Dons midweek with an unconvincing display. I'd make them about a 2.3 shot here.Last edited by The Situation; 20-01-12, 16:05.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by Semibluff View Postanyone actually want to talk about football here, whats a good bet and why?
Awful lot of drowl putting people off posting probably
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostYep have BTS myself.
Gonna lay QPR ~evs. Only the 1 win at home this season so far. Wigan have a full strength squad to pick from. QPR without Tarrabt and Traore who are at the ANC and arguably their best player this season Faurlin out injured. Gabbidon a doubt at CB too. Martinez's side are more used to a relagation battle having been in similar positions last couple of seasons so experience could be crucial in this battle. QPR also fielded a full stength team in the cup midweek so have less recovery time, albeit only a day. You'd think the new manager factor would be a bonus for QPR but they were very poor against Newcastle last week and could only scraped past MK Dons midweek with an unconvincing display. I'd make them about a 2.3 shot here.
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Originally posted by Dice75 View PostI didnt think QPR were too bad up at Newcastle tbh. Worked very hard & kept Newcastle to 1 shot on target I think. I also think SWP will come good under Hughes & dont think Tarrabt has been starting much anyway. Wigan will come to frustrate but I can see QPR nipping a lead which wont be difficult to hold.
Being the second half of the season and both of them in the relegation zone it's going to be a very nervy affair, especially for QPR playing in front of their fans where they've only won once this season against a 9 man team for half a game, and these pressures are new to a lot of their squad unlike Wigans.Profit before people.
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Pretty sure Mark Hughes is a slow starter when he takes over a new team also.. My mate was telling me last week he waw gonna stick a few quid on QPR due to the new manager bounce factor, but I warned him off it. He's never won his first game in charge at a club and I think when he took over Blackburn they got thrashed in his first two games in charge. Pretty sure he'll come good when he gets some players in, but laying them this weekend is certainly better than backing them.
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Originally posted by KK82 View PostPretty sure Mark Hughes is a slow starter when he takes over a new team also.. My mate was telling me last week he waw gonna stick a few quid on QPR due to the new manager bounce factor, but I warned him off it. He's never won his first game in charge at a club and I think when he took over Blackburn they got thrashed in his first two games in charge. Pretty sure he'll come good when he gets some players in, but laying them this weekend is certainly better than backing them.
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Originally posted by CheckRaise View PostSemi I recall you asking for people to PM you their way of analyzing the 2.5 goals market and you were going to combine these opinions and PM each of the people back but you must have forgotten. Can you post your findings in the thread or the other peoples opinions that were shared with you?
my lack of maths background made compiling a model too tough. Had intended to attempt it but didnt
Not may place to share others pm's to me, maybe they'll contact you if you ask or they see this
Yeh agree Re QPR.
Hope i dont have to back arsenal!
On bayern tonight pretty big (minus riberry) and blackburn and liverpool tomorrow.
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OK, I will give the modelling a go. One of the people I live with is an actuary so he will be fairly clued in to this.
If people have an aspect of the 2.5 goals market that they find hold true and indicate value or a way of analyzing the market and are willing to share, send me a PM and I will try and combine the different aspects and will send a PM back to anyone who shared useful information with the finished product.
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Originally posted by tglynn View PostAny thoughts on a City, United and Liverpool treble?
*****
Just as aside I'm amazed by the lack of media talk about the City Spurs game, it all seems to be focused on Arsenal United and Henry/Scholes side-plots. I know which game I'm looking forward to more.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by Semibluff View Post
On bayern tonight pretty big (minus riberry) and blackburn and liverpool tomorrow.
Munich have already lost to Mainz (14th) and Hannover (7th) away.
Also, Monchengladbach have not lost at home so far this season.
Bayern have not played a league match in over a month.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostDid you see in the bbv earlier that Boyles are enhancing that out to 10/1 at some stage tomorrow, decent bet at those odds, otherwise at normal odds meh.
*****
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PP are money back if an african nations game finishes 0-0. up to 100e. on goalscorer bets or correct scores
Its a ridic low scoring tournament, of shite standard imo. So if you can get scorecasts close to bf line which are in games with very low goal expectancy (ie mali guinea later) then backing 1-1 1-0's is good value.
Worth keeping an eye on ^^
Also, boyles are ht/ft cardiff at 2/1 when its 182/188 bf at the moment. which is a decent edge too (limited to a certain amount and only in the shop)
PP are doing in shop chelt offers. Today they went evens on Big Bucks for a few minutes (not sure how long even). I think theyre doing 2 a day, for those who live in shop, or have a spare day/contact to someone who does. These are prob limited to 100/200e bets, but worth a look anyways
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Opinions on tonights game? Liverpool look very short at 4/11 to qualify. Possibility that this could mean more to them and Anfield will definitely be rocking but there's still a massive gulf in class between sides and City should go with strong team with no game this weekend.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostOpinions on tonights game? Liverpool look very short at 4/11 to qualify. Possibility that this could mean more to them and Anfield will definitely be rocking but there's still a massive gulf in class between sides and City should go with strong team with no game this weekend.
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Originally posted by Terry Phelan View PostAnybody like Sengal at 7/10? Were poor against Zambia in losing 1-2 but surely the gulf in class is too big against the hosts Equatorial Guinea in what is a must win game for Senegal?
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Originally posted by Opr View PostI know these stats tend to mean very little in the context of a match like tonight but something to chew on for the layers.
bensmithTimes Ben Smith
Tough task for #MCFC tonight. #LFC have never lost a two-legged tie after winning the first leg away from Anfield
Opr
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Originally posted by Opr View PostI know these stats tend to mean very little in the context of a match like tonight but something to chew on for the layers.
bensmithTimes Ben Smith
Tough task for #MCFC tonight. #LFC have never lost a two-legged tie after winning the first leg away from Anfield
Opr
- Liverpool will aim to reach the Carling Cup final when they take on Manchester City in the semi-final, second leg at Anfield on Wednesday night. Here are all the need-to-know pre-match stats courtesy of Ged Rea.
- This is Liverpool's 14th semi-final, equalling the record held by Arsenal.
- It is their first since 2004-05 when they beat Watford 1-0 home and away with Steven Gerrard scoring the only goal of each meeting. The Reds skipper has now scored in three successive legs of a League Cup semi-final - each time Liverpool winning 1-0.
- Steven Gerrard's appearance in the first leg in Manchester was his first start in the League Cup since he scored against Cardiff in October 2007.
- Liverpool have won this trophy on a record seven occasions, the last being in 2003 when they defeated Manchester United 2-0 in Cardiff. They are looking to extend their record by appearing in an 11th final.
- The Reds have won their last three semi-finals - Crystal Palace (2001), Sheffield United (2003) and Watford two years later.
- Liverpool have won nine of the last 11 League Cup semi-finals they have contested. The last team to beat them at this stage was Middlesbrough in 1998.
- The last top-flight team to beat Liverpool at this stage was Queens Park Rangers in 1986.
- The Reds have an excellent record at Anfield in the semi-final of this competition having not lost any of the 13 games played - winning eight of them.
- On all four previous occasions Liverpool have scored a goal in an away first leg game in this competition they have gone on to lift the Cup - 1981, 1982, 2001, 2003.
- The Reds have scored in all 13 of their previous home legs at the semi-final stage of the League Cup.
- Of Liverpool's last nine games in the League Cup this is only their second at home. Their visit to the Etihad was their fifth away game in succession in the competition - their most ever in the League Cup.
- Liverpool have played in five penalty shoot-outs in the League Cup, losing twice - to Wimbledon in 1993 and Northampton at Anfield in 2010.
- In major competitive games the Reds have lost two of 12 shoot-outs.
- The Reds have never lost a two-legged tie in any competition after winning the first leg away from home. They have returned to Anfield with a lead 38 times including six occasions in the League Cup.
- Liverpool have scored in 42 of the last 43 League Cup games - only failing to hit the net during that time at Chelsea in December 2007.
- The Reds have used 24 players in this season's five League Cup games with Pepe Reina and Jay Spearing the only men to start them all.
- Liverpool are aiming to become the 11th current Premier League team to play at the 'new' Wembley.
- Kenny Dalglish could, if Liverpool win this trophy, become only the third manager after Alex Ferguson and Jose Mourinho to win all three major domestic English trophies - Premier League, FA Cup and League Cup.
- Liverpool's last two-legged semi-final in any competition saw them go out of the Europa League on away goals to Atletico Madrid in 2010 - though they did win the second leg at home.
- That is the only time they have been eliminated in the last six semi-finals that have been decided at Anfield.
- Craig Bellamy has scored five goals in his last five starts for the Reds.
- The Reds have not lost two games in a row since September.
- City have won both of their games since the first leg (at Wigan and home to Tottenham) while Liverpool have drawn at home to Stoke and lost at Bolton.
- This will be City's seventh semi-final - they have won two and on two occasions have gone on to lift the trophy.
- In 1970 they beat Manchester United 4-3 on aggregate and went on to beat West Brom in the final.
- They defeated Plymouth 3-1 over 2 legs in 1974 but lost the final to Wolves 2-1.
- Two years later they beat Middlesbrough 4-1 on aggregate and overcame Newcastle 2-1 in the Wembley final.
- City lost in the last four to Stoke in 1963-64, Liverpool in 1981 and two years ago lost 4-3 on aggregate to Manchester United after winning the first leg at home 2-1. Carlos Tevez scored all three of City's goals.
- Roberto Mancini has faced Liverpool over two legs once before as a manager.
- His Inter Milan side lost 3-0 on aggregate to the Reds in the last 16 of the Champions League in 2008.
- Only Stefan Savic has started all of City's League Cup games this season.
- City have taken part in two League Cup penalty shoot-outs. They lost to Blackpool in 1997-98 and beat Brighton in 2008-09.
- City have won only two of the last 42 visits to Anfield in all competitions.
- Only two of the 25 teams to have won away in the first leg of a League Cup semi-final previously have failed to reach the final - West Ham were knocked out by Stoke in 1971-72 and Tottenham went out to Arsenal in 1986-87.
- James Milner and Stewart Downing were teammates in the Aston Villa side that lost in the final to Manchester United 2 years ago - Milner scoring an early penalty.
- City have won two of their last six away games in all competitions and in that time have scored four goals.
- If City wish to reach the final without the aid of a penalty shoot-out they will need to score at least twice in an away game for the first time since November 5 when they won 3-2 at QPR.
- Referee Phil Dowd took charge of Liverpool's quarter-final win at Chelsea in November. He has taken charge of three clashes between the Reds and City - Liverpool have yet to win though they did draw both previous Anfield fixtures.
- Liverpool's record in the League Cup: Pld 210 Won 126 Drawn 42 Lost 42
- Scorers this season (League Cup in brackets):
- Liverpool: Suarez 8 (3), Bellamy 7 (1), Carroll 4 (1), Gerrard 4 (1), Maxi 4 (2), Adam 2 (0), Skrtel 2 (0), Downing 1 (0), Henderson 1 (0), Johnson 1 (0), Kelly 1 (1), Kuyt 1 (1), Shelvey 1 (0), own goals 3 (0).
- Man City: Aguero 17 (1), Dzeko 14 (2), Balotelli 12 (1), A. Johnson 6 (1), Silva 6 (0), Nasri 4 (1), Y. Toure 6 (0), Kolarov 3 (0), Kompany 2 (0), Milner 3 (0), Lescott 2 (0), Barry 1 (0), Hargreaves 1 (1), Richards 1 (0), Savic 1 (0), own goals 2 (0)
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- Liverpool will aim to reach the Carling Cup final when they take on Manchester City in the semi-final, second leg at Anfield on Wednesday night. Here are all the need-to-know pre-match stats courtesy of Ged Rea.
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liverpool/barca double 7/2
mancity/barca double 4/1 (both with ladbrokes)
surley barca wont slip up @ home to madrid and there isnt a draw in the other game.
so is there any sense in having say 100 on each double.
1st 7/2 returns 450
2nd 4/1 returns 500
so if all goes to plan min profit of 250? or is this just a stupid idea?
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Guest
Originally posted by Donk Magnet View Postliverpool/barca double 7/2
mancity/barca double 4/1 (both with ladbrokes)
surley barca wont slip up @ home to madrid and there isnt a draw in the other game.
so is there any sense in having say 100 on each double.
1st 7/2 returns 450
2nd 4/1 returns 500
so if all goes to plan min profit of 250? or is this just a stupid idea?Last edited by Guest; 25-01-12, 18:58.
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Originally posted by Donk Magnet View Postliverpool/barca double 7/2
mancity/barca double 4/1 (both with ladbrokes)
surley barca wont slip up @ home to madrid and there isnt a draw in the other game.
so is there any sense in having say 100 on each double.
1st 7/2 returns 450
2nd 4/1 returns 500
so if all goes to plan min profit of 250? or is this just a stupid idea?
liverpool will defend with everything they have. there is the potential for them to keep a clean sheet but city will probably break them down.
Combined odds of 2.37 don't appeal that much assuming you are betting an equal amount on both doubles.
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Originally posted by Opr View PostDelighted with no Carroll and Bellamy up front. Praying to god Henderson is not on the wing and he starts with the three in midfield.
Opr
Tonight's team v City - Reina, Johnson, Agger, Skrtel, Enrique, Gerrard, Henderson, Adam, Downing, Kuyt, Bellamy
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Originally posted by Percy007 View PostShould you not credit where you took that from?
Had a look at the BBV earlier
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Originally posted by CheckRaise View Post
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Originally posted by Percy007 View PostEverytime someone posts after you, you think they are having a "dig" or a "cheap shot" man up ffs, I honestly feel for you.
Its not half obvious that you were having a go off me, so quit trying to make it out as if im being paranoid again. Iv been clearly wrong before on here before due to other things but when you are going to make cheap digs constantly, I notice them.
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Originally posted by A_CitizenErased View PostLay the fuck off man.
This isnt the first time youv jumped onto the bandwagon of giving me shit. Give it a break.
Cheers
Report a post in future if you have an issue with it please. This sort of post is certain to derail threads
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