Any opinions on Huddersfield today in the FA cup away to Swindon? Swindon had extra time and penalties during the week, Huddersfield a division higher and playing decent stuff in their division surely should have too much in hand here?
Any opinions on Huddersfield today in the FA cup away to Swindon? Swindon had extra time and penalties during the week, Huddersfield a division higher and playing decent stuff in their division surely should have too much in hand here?
Huddersfield 1/1
Usually wouldn't get involved in matches like this but was looking at this earlier, Huddersfield, depending on line-up are a great price but take 11/8 (365, VC) not evs.
Usually wouldn't get involved in matches like this but was looking at this earlier, Huddersfield, depending on line-up are a great price but take 11/8 (365, VC) not evs.
see the u/o 2.5 goals in the ireland/estonia (under@10/11(vc),over@evens(sj))wouldnt know a whole pile about football,but you would think thay el trap would hold what he has,would the unders be worth a pop at 10/11?
see the u/o 2.5 goals in the ireland/estonia (under@10/11(vc),over@evens(sj))wouldnt know a whole pile about football,but you would think thay el trap would hold what he has,would the unders be worth a pop at 10/11?
There are better value even money shots than this to be had, game could be a bore or a goal glut, no way of telling til u see the teams and how they line up.
I need to use a €50 free bet before the weekend. Given that I only keep the profits I am looking at around evens to 6/4. Anyone think of anything worth bothering with? I'm more concerned with forgetting to do it than anything else.
I need to use a €50 free bet before the weekend. Given that I only keep the profits I am looking at around evens to 6/4. Anyone think of anything worth bothering with? I'm more concerned with forgetting to do it than anything else.
Darts double for tomorrow
Vincent van der Voort to beat Martin Phillips @ 4/6
Paul Nicholson to beat Wes Newton @ 4/5
I think Ireland are a great price ht ft with pp??? was going to double up with England ht ft as Sweden are Johnny brutal in friendlies away from home but it's too dodgy methinks
Also not that's it's that relevant but Engerland haven't beaten Sweden in long time, so long that I'd say Strewelpeter is the only IPB member to be alive at that stage.
I wouldn't say it's irrelevant either tbh, records like that can certainly impact individuals' approaches to games.
I'd suggest Down vs Kerry AI QF in 2010 as an example - Kerry have never beaten Down in the Championship, and while the previous meeting between the two teams had come long before any of the current panellists started playing all the Down players pointed to the record afterwards as something that gave them confidence and motivation.
Obv, this isn't anything like as relevant in this context, but as a general rule past records between teams definitely has an impact, even when the actual playing staff has changed wholesale.
If it was a world cup game or something it may have a little relavance as teams would try to use it to get a phychological edge over opposition in build up to the game, but it's a friendly so I'd doubt mind games really come into things too much as players don't really give a fuck about these games.
Only mentioned cause I wanted to get the Strewel burn in ha.
If it was a world cup game or something it may have a little relavance as teams would try to use it to get a phychological edge over opposition in build up to the game, but it's a friendly so I'd doubt mind games really come into things too much as players don't really give a fuck about these games.
Only mentioned cause I wanted to get the Strewel burn in ha.
Yeah it's just something you hear argued about a lot - particularly in GAA - but my opinion is that history definitely informs contemporary games.
Not so much in this spot obv, just a general perspective.
I know we said we're not backing Intl Friendlies anymore but there might be a tiny bit of value in Germany 10/11 against Holland in Hamburg.
Holland were poor the other night against Switzerland I'm told, and will have neither VDV (injured) nor RVP (rested) in the team tonight, with Sneijder also having sat out the end of training last night so possibly missing as well.
I have a €50 free bet on Ladbrokes that I may stick on this...
I know we said we're not backing Intl Friendlies anymore but there might be a tiny bit of value in Germany 10/11 against Holland in Hamburg.
Holland were poor the other night against Switzerland I'm told, and will have neither VDV (injured) nor RVP (rested) in the team tonight, with Sneijder also having sat out the end of training last night so possibly missing as well.
I have a €50 free bet on Ladbrokes that I may stick on this...
"i know we said . . . BUT"
If your only a few weeks into everything, and you've only got a few initial guidelines or rules, the above being one. You should listen to them
You should also want an enormous reason to go against it. The above isnt it IMO.
What do we know about the German team? There should be good motivational factors for both teams to try (albeit a little light the dutch)
What price would you make it yourself? What % does this have to be out by before you are happy enough to get involved?
The price you make it compared to a friendly should also differ. Point being, Id need a lot of positives and a much higher edge to punt an international game than a competitive one. And even at that, the info you can get from the BBC snippet, will never have you ahead of the market, but Neutral EV flipping at best
Also, Dont feel such an urge to use the Ladbrokes bet unless your under time constraints. Its still money, view it as serious a bet as any other
If your only a few weeks into everything, and you've only got a few initial guidelines or rules, the above being one. You should listen to them
You should also want an enormous reason to go against it. The above isnt it IMO.
What do we know about the German team? There should be good motivational factors for both teams to try (albeit a little light the dutch)
What price would you make it yourself? What % does this have to be out by before you are happy enough to get involved?
The price you make it compared to a friendly should also differ. Point being, Id need a lot of positives and a much higher edge to punt an international game than a competitive one. And even at that, the info you can get from the BBC snippet, will never have you ahead of the market, but Neutral EV flipping at best
Also, Dont feel such an urge to use the Ladbrokes bet unless your under time constraints. Its still money, view it as serious a bet as any other
Thanks Donal, this is exactly the sort of advice I need (gonna C&P it to our log thread so I'll see it regularly). I can see pretty clearly answering the questions you've posed above that it's a pretty boneheaded spot to pick alright.
I think starting off I'm just over-enthusiastic and probably not as good at recognising that a bad wager avoided is as just as important as a good wager taken on. Mad to splash around like
As far as the free Ladbrokes bet goes it needs to be used by friday evening so I'm sort of reaching a bit alright, but I'm sure I'll find something.
no probs David - If my advice is worth anything, more than happy to help. So feel free to ask!
look at team news, price games up (without knowing proper prices) and then see how far off you are. Those you were miles off, watch them or read a few match reports. Also see what the off price was. If market shortens your direction and/or the game is all your way, then your doing something right.
Id recommend doing this more so in leagues than random friendlies were you have very little to back it up on and so much guess work (substitutions - motivation etc)
your bet only has to be placed before fri? or has to happen?
for your bet,
laddies and a few others have portugal 1.44 tonight
Sbo (a very good guide) have it 1.38
Betfair have it 143/144 (which would need commission factored in after this)
So without even looking at anything team news wise, this is never a bad bet
Belarus to beat libya is
162/164 with bf (commision not factored yet)
158 with sbo
and 1.67 with Laddies
Do these two in a double.
Higher variance but increases your edge slightly. Using the bf line at present as the correct line this gives you a decent edge (even if you had the mythical 2% commission rate on bf)
These are just 2 bets i found by skimming for 5 mins with 3 pages open, minus any team news what so ever
if you work out the extra edge you get here let me know, wouldnt be my exact strong point and i also couldnt be arsed
no probs David - If my advice is worth anything, more than happy to help. So feel free to ask!
look at team news, price games up (without knowing proper prices) and then see how far off you are. Those you were miles off, watch them or read a few match reports. Also see what the off price was. If market shortens your direction and/or the game is all your way, then your doing something right.
Id recommend doing this more so in leagues than random friendlies were you have very little to back it up on and so much guess work (substitutions - motivation etc)
Cheers man, appreciate it!
The pricing up is probably the key to the whole thing so obv it's the thing I need to spend most time learning how to do. From the few bits I've picked up from yourself and others it's just as simple as sitting down with all the available info and deciding for yourself how many times out of ten Team A will win, how many times Team B will win etc and just using results to hone your skills over time?
Friendlies are now definitely, conclusively, absolutely off my list of things to bet on without extreme extenuating circumstances
your bet only has to be placed before fri? or has to happen?
Just says "must be redeemed" by Friday so I'd guess that means I just need to place the bet rather than it having to be settled, I'll double check with support this evening.
for your bet,
laddies and a few others have portugal 1.44 tonight
Sbo (a very good guide) have it 1.38
Betfair have it 143/144 (which would need commission factored in after this)
So without even looking at anything team news wise, this is never a bad bet
Belarus to beat libya is
162/164 with bf (commision not factored yet)
158 with sbo
and 1.67 with Laddies
Do these two in a double.
Higher variance but increases your edge slightly. Using the bf line at present as the correct line this gives you a decent edge (even if you had the mythical 2% commission rate on bf)
These are just 2 bets i found by skimming for 5 mins with 3 pages open, minus any team news what so ever
if you work out the extra edge you get here let me know, wouldnt be my exact strong point and i also couldnt be arsed
Assuming I've done the calculations right, taking the Betfair odds as the true line gives us:
Edge on Portugal game alone: 0.7%
Edge on Belarus game alone: 2.46%
Edge on accumulated odds: 3.28%
A nice bit bigger if SBO is the true line obv:
Edge on Portugal game alone: 4.34%
Edge on Belarus game alone: 5.7%
Edge on accumulated odds: 10.08%
I have around 8 games today backed, and with 10 minutes left 6 of them are only up by 1 goal... some fucking sweat!!
Paddy with man city, southampton, southend and charlton at 8/1 looking great - I however have gone with a €100 treble no motherwell charlton and Ac Milan.
Will make up for the €300 I dropped on Long Run
Need to hear 2 final whistles fast now then 1 time etc etc etc
I have around 8 games today backed, and with 10 minutes left 6 of them are only up by 1 goal... some fucking sweat!!
Paddy with man city, southampton, southend and charlton at 8/1 looking great - I however have gone with a €100 treble no motherwell charlton and Ac Milan.
Will make up for the €300 I dropped on Long Run
Need to hear 2 final whistles fast now then 1 time etc etc etc
Likes me the 5/2 about Suarez anytime today. Chelsea have been playing a suicidal high line this season and really exposed to pacey strikers getting in behind, like Van Persie and Long for example did on numerous occasions against Chelsea earlier in the season. Hope Carroll doesn't start though.
...looking at spurs tomorrow with juicy lips...i can see them doing a good number on villa...looking at a few markets, ht/ftm -1 -2m win both halves...
can any stat-tastic people pesuade me to not go out of my budget on this???
...looking at spurs tomorrow with juicy lips...i can see them doing a good number on villa...looking at a few markets, ht/ftm -1 -2m win both halves...
can any stat-tastic people pesuade me to not go out of my budget on this???
Just had a quick look at their head to head and since 00-01 this game (in the Prem) has only had a winning margin of over 1 goal once so that might be something to consider!
In case you can't see this Barcelona vid check another version out:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2_jcI7ZeCkThe lyrics:Barcelona BarcelonaBarcelona Barcelon...
Bookies really out to get Arsenal beat tonight with enhanced offers, have to say I agree with them. Impossible for them to be anything other than over rated in the market after the run they've been on, imo they haven't been that impressive at all and obvious but true that they're far too reliant on one player performing. Dortmund have been poor in the group but hitting real form now in the league with Gotze playing really well in midfield. Lay Arsenal. Anyway off out early before Milan game. Can't wait.
I think Arsenal are a great bet tbh. Nothing like a good run of form and the confidence it gives you to get the best out of a team. I've been very impressed by Arteta who is playing in a deeper position than the man he replaced(Fabregas) and they have a looked a lot more solid defensively in recent games as a result of that.
The one that interests me the most tonight is Viktoria Plzen. I've had a look at their recent performances and they have been going well domestically over the last while. BATE Borisov lost their last home game but have been strong but this loss was without their top defender who misses tonights game. Belarus doesn't have a great league and I just think that Plzen might be a lot stronger coming from the Czech Republic. Plzen have to win tonight to get the Europa League spot so it could be a case of Borisov trying to hold out and thats never a good option at this sort of level imo. Plizen's coach says they are going all out for the win and I think they are a good bet at 3.4 on the machine.
Also doing a Zenit/Marseille and doing a single on Shaktar who I really like at home tonight against Porto who have been poor away from home, not only in the Champion's league but domestically as well. They have two losses away in the Champion's league and 1 win and two draws domestically to make up their last 5 away.
'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
...Surprised to see Villa are not favourites...betting in running at this stage but still a great price...think despite the form, and there poor performance last week against spurs, they'll bounce back...
plus with the news of Gary speed this morning, swansea will not have their mind on the job...
Is there any value in United 5/2 to win the league?
Citys performances havent been great the last few games, it also looks like they'll be playing football on thursday nights too. They looked a bit leggy at times against Arsenal tonight (albeit not all first team players were there)
Its going grand now that there winning but if things start to not go their own way I could see them slipping up, also helps that they have tossers like tevez and ballotelli in the team.
United usually get strong at this time of the year and although leaking goals I think with vidic in the team again that'll stop. They've kinda got the been there done that thing going for them, where as this is kind of a step into the unknown for city. I think that 1-0s are gonna win you the league and i can see grinding out the tough away games. Also hopefully they might sign a competent midfielder in january although i dont know if fergie wants to spend big on someone thats cup tied.
Anyway thoughts or counter argument would be appreciated?
Is there any value in United 5/2 to win the league?
Citys performances havent been great the last few games, it also looks like they'll be playing football on thursday nights too. They looked a bit leggy at times against Arsenal tonight (albeit not all first team players were there)
Its going grand now that there winning but if things start to not go their own way I could see them slipping up, also helps that they have tossers like tevez and ballotelli in the team.
United usually get strong at this time of the year and although leaking goals I think with vidic in the team again that'll stop. They've kinda got the been there done that thing going for them, where as this is kind of a step into the unknown for city. I think that 1-0s are gonna win you the league and i can see grinding out the tough away games. Also hopefully they might sign a competent midfielder in january although i dont know if fergie wants to spend big on someone thats cup tied.
Anyway thoughts or counter argument would be appreciated?
This has all the hallmarks of Chelsea 04/05. 2nd year of Abramovich with the arrivals of Drogba, Carvalho and Ferreira (Paulo was the player of the year for Chelsea imo), Chelsea took the lead in early Nov and everyone waited for them to have a really bad patch due to history and new side. It never came because they (like City) had the squad and won with 12 points to spare . Consider that they played 59 games, the likes of Glen Johnson, Scott Parker, Alexey Smertin, Gerimi, Arjen Robbin, Wayne Bridge all played less than half of the games. They also won Carling Cup and got to Semi of Champions league.
I reckon City will stay on top for the rest of the season. Having inter 2 bob on Thursdays will mean a rest for the A team and a Sunday kick off for Prem games.
It'll start saturday at 2.30 for a decent period if this goes tits up!!
think im 5/5 for them this year!
Consistent if nothing else (although did back QPR against them)
Agree with you here, nice early kick off too so AVB shouldn't be worried about resting anyone for CL during the week. Haven't really been convinced by Newcastle's early run of form, think they're a fair bit over-rated.
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