Football-betting thread

[Percy007]

Who is that you have on the Right - Wing?

[Opr]

Who is that you have on the Right - Wing?

That took me a minute, I am on the bench supposedly - Suso

Opr

[Emmet]

Check my post before than one

Opr

Think he means the lad in right midfield....

[Percy007]

Check my post before than one

Opr

I know who Flanagan is but who is the ahead of him

At least Emmet gets it!!

[Opr]

Fuck off the two of you

Surely you can't see us pulling this out of the bag tonight Percy ?

Opr

[Percy007]

Fuck off the two of you

Surely you can't see us pulling this out of the bag tonight Percy ?

Opr

Im not too confident, I wait to see If he goes 5 at the back which obv includes the Greek or he puts a midfield of Maxi Lucas Meireles Kuyt. Id prefer the 4-4-2 because Mancini is so cautious away from home. Id prefer a team without the Greek tbh, Kuyt will give Flanagan all the cover he needs.

[Percy007]

JimmyRiceWriter from about 20 mins ago

Man City still haven't arrived at Anfield. Teams normally well in the dressing room by now.

From Twitter

[Emmet]

City bottling the game?

[Opr]

Team is supposedly

Reina Flanagen carra skrtel aurelio Dirk speating lucas raul carroll suarez

Opr

[The Situation]

Over 3 goals at 3/1 with bet365 worth a glance so?

Look at City's record against the top 6 teams over the last couple of years. Vast majority are low scoring.

[Percy007]

The team in full: Reina, Flanagan, Carragher, Skrtel, Aurelio, Kuyt, Spearing, Lucas, Meireles, Suarez, Carroll.

[Opr]

No Silva for City!!!

Hart, Boyata, Kompany, Lescott, Kolarov, Yaya, Barry, A. Johnson, Tevez, Milner, Dzeko.

Opr

[CheckRaise]

Anything above 4/6 on Liverpool (-1) is money in the bank. 4/1 is basically robbing the bookies even without any decent defenders or even midfielders. Its a strategy employed by Mohammed Ali and made famous by Rocky called the rope a dope where you appear to about to get destroyed but from the 70th minute you take everyone by surprise and hoof the ball up to the lanky fcuker and he inexplicitly pulls off a moment of magic and we realise the genius of micky/kenny.


Disclaimer:

Your investment may go up as well as down and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[Raheny Red]

I'm all over City tonight. 3.1 on befair ftw and 2.1 on powers dnb!

[hotspur]

I'm on City and Tevez to bag a goal @ 4/1.

[Insanodude]

anyone have a stream for this?

[Opr]

anyone have a stream for this?

http://www.soccertvlive.net/watch/59451/1/watch-liverpool-fc-vs-manchester-city.html

Opr

[kaiser soze]

Had to have a bit of city at 15/8 no gerrard,johnson and more importantly agger. a johnson and tevez to run a muck imo.

[The Situation]

I've laid City FWIW.

[Opr]

Cracker from Carroll!

Opr

[Opr]

lol

Opr

[Emmet]

Over 3 goals at 3/1 with bet365 worth a glance so?

...

[kaiser soze]

Had to have a bit of city at 15/8 no gerrard,johnson and more importantly agger. a johnson and tevez to run a muck imo.

Spot on there alright wp me lol.

[Opr]

Last time I doubt The King! Well done CR.

Opr

[shano_88]

Shakhtar ar 14/5 could be worth a look imo. Barca have never won a champions league knockout leg away under Pep and with the result of the first leg in mind and the Real Madrid match the weekend, Barca could rest a few players here.

I think I might have some of Shakhtar at 15/8 draw no bet aswell.

[CheckRaise]

Shakhtar ar 14/5 could be worth a look imo. Barca have never won a champions league knockout leg away under Pep and with the result of the first leg in mind and the Real Madrid match the weekend, Barca could rest a few players here.

I think I might have some of Shakhtar at 15/8 draw no bet aswell.

I don't think I have backed a draw in years but the 3.75 for the draw looks good with an 80/20 split on the 1-1 @ 7.5. Interest stakes.

[Raheny Red]

Powers down for anyone else? Trying to lose money here

[KevIRL]

Powers down for anyone else? Trying to lose money here

Yep, and BetDash too

Got a feeling this is gonna be Chelsea's night

13/5 on Chelsea to qualify with Boyles.

A few quid on that prick Torres to score first @ 7/1 to soften the blow as well

[Jaysoose]

Trying to get 10 on ronney for first goal...damn you pp

[Jaysoose]

double postering

[CheckRaise]

Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5. Tasty.

[The Situation]

Braga trading bigger than 2.4 looks like a bet tonight in their Europa league second leg against Dynamo Kiev. Tie is currently 1-1. They've won 6 out of 7 European home games this year between Champions League and Europa including wins against Arsenal and Seville. They can even slum it with European minnows too with wins over Celtic and Liverpool. Dynamo are missing Shevchenko through suspension who while isn't the player he once was is still a threat at this level.

[shano_88]

Barca at 6/4 for tonights match. think I might have a few quid on that.

[The Situation]

Chelsea have been punted into a layable price here. Come on Woy! Making a late run for manager of the year.

[The Situation]

Steven Reid, not the best right back I've ever seen. LOL me^^

[Semibluff]

wouldnt worry about it! im on blackpool DnB

we can LoL together!!

[CheckRaise]

chievo v bologna - under 2.5 goals - 1.75
nice v monaco - under 2.5 goals - 1.5

napoli v udinese - over 2.5 goals - 1.73
Almeria v valencia - over 2.5 goals - 1.65
Getafe v Sevilla - over 2.5 goals - 1.73

Milan v sampdoria - milan to keep a clean sheet - 1.67
rennes v lorient - rennes to keep a clean sheet - 2.3

lottery: 49/1

[Opr]

Liverpool 9/2 with William Hill at the moment and the current lay price on Betfair is 4's.

Opr

[Charlie Harper]

chievo v bolonga

13th v 11th {league pos}

bolonga 9/1 PP..

Full strength team from what i can c, any1 know anything about this

[Opr]

wtf, lol Italian football

Opr

[The Situation]

chievo v bolonga

13th v 11th {league pos}

bolonga 9/1 PP..

Full strength team from what i can c, any1 know anything about this

Chievo could do the points, Bolonga are safe but not challenging for anything. These things have there way of sorting themselves out in Italy. Surprised it's coming under so much scrutiny this year as it's always been this way.

[Opr]

Not a single bookie offering a handicap market.

Opr

[Raheny Red]

Messi to score @ 5/4 tonight with Betpack / Stan James could be getting a high percentage of my hard earned.

[FeetMagic]

Chelsea for the league at 7/2 on boyles worth a bet? Realistically they just have to beat United at Old Trafford as they should be able to win their two last games against Newcastle at home and Everton away should they beat United.

[CheckRaise]

Its a shame that the game is in old trafford and utd have the better of the last two fixtures.

I have a bad feeling number 19 is on the way and 7/2 is not value as I expect Utd to increase their goal difference more than chelsea in the last two fixtures even if chelsea manage an upset in old trafford. I would want about 7/1 on chelsea.

[Opr]

Its a shame that the game is in old trafford and utd have the better of the last two fixtures.

I have a bad feeling number 19 is on the way and 7/2 is not value as I expect Utd to increase their goal difference more than chelsea in the last two fixtures even if chelsea manage an upset in old trafford. I would want about 7/1 on chelsea.

As someone pointed out in the BBV earlier Chelsea will be playing teams who have nothing to play for in Newcastle and Everton. United will be playing teams fighting for their premiership survival in Blackburn and Blackpool so its not as cut and dried as it looks. Newcastle for instance already looked on their holidays in the Liverpool game today.

Opr

[Percy007]

As someone pointed out in the BBV earlier Chelsea will be playing teams who have nothing to play for in Newcastle and Everton. United will be playing teams fighting for their premiership survival in Blackburn and Blackpool so its not as cut and dried as it looks. Newcastle for instance already looked on their holidays in the Liverpool game today.

Opr

Chelsea gotta play United reserves aka Everton.

[CheckRaise]

There is something to that but Utd have not lost at home all season and Everton have only lost 3 games at home and they are not a team to sit back and they are in good form. Blackburn and Blackpools form have dipped severly.

[The Situation]

As someone pointed out in the BBV earlier Chelsea will be playing teams who have nothing to play for in Newcastle and Everton. United will be playing teams fighting for their premiership survival in Blackburn and Blackpool so its not as cut and dried as it looks. Newcastle for instance already looked on their holidays in the Liverpool game today.

Opr

And as I said in the BBV that this logic is one of the biggest fallacies among fans. Blackburn and Blackpool are where they are for a reason ie they're not very good. Ill wait for someone to show me some statistics that teams 'fighting for their lives' prove to be tougher opponents at the end of the season.

Everton on the other hand have been Champions league quality in terms of win percentage in the second half of the season over the last few years and again similar this year.

Give me B'burn and B'pool any day of the week and I'm sure Fergie would agree.

[Opr]

While I agree with that to a certain extent I still think its huge for players to be going out on the field with something actually on the line. Joey Barton spent a good bit of the Liverpool game today having a running joke with the Kop smiling and laughing putting the ball outside the circle to wind them up when he was taking corners. He was clearly just going through the motions today completely carefree with no competitive edge like most of the Newcastle players.

Opr

[CheckRaise]

Its hard to find value this weekend in the main european football markets.

Valencia v Real Sociedad - over 2.5 goals

[Carl_Morrissey]

Discussing a pretty big bet with a friend for next season EPL. United -13 v Liverpool. Thoughts anyone? I have the Liverpool side FWIW.

[shano_88]

Discussing a pretty big bet with a friend for next season EPL. United -13 v Liverpool. Thoughts anyone? I have the Liverpool side FWIW.

evens?

Depending on summer action but I like your side atm.

[Carl_Morrissey]

evens?

Depending on summer action but I like your side atm.

Yeah even money. He offered me United -10 to start but I've negotiated -13.

[Semibluff]

id be all over the liverpool side of this bet personally. Thats a lot of points to give up.
Also you should clarify what happens in the occasion of a 13 point difference. Push? or do you lose

[Carl_Morrissey]

id be all over the liverpool side of this bet personally. Thats a lot of points to give up.
Also you should clarify what happens in the occasion of a 13 point difference. Push? or do you lose

13 points is a push. I think Liverpool are only gonna strengthen in the summer while I cant really see United doing all that much business in/out.

[Semibluff]

to try and look at the league table now and estimate how many points youd get next year;

Liverpool are currently having an underachieving season, although they have had a pretty good period since Kenny took over. Man Utd also are believed to be over achieving considering the strength of their team, with an argument that they will win the league being the 3rd best team in the league (something i dont really believe, but appreciate the merit to it)
So with current 18 point gap between the two teams, Liverpool having a tougher final two games - to say they'll end on 18 point gap is about right (United resting final game, etc)

so making up 18 points, can it be done next season? and is 13 points a good bet?

Theyve lost Stevie G for long periods of the season, and it cant be argued that he is a super player. They seem to perform better over the last few years without him, but invariably if Kenny can manage to have a team with him in it a long with the two boys up top then they should increase strongly.
When you look at both teams in the transfer market and are led to believe the hype of liverpool in the market, then they should slightly shade the summer signings.

Fergie notoriously doesnt panic buy, and with City, liverpool, Real Madrid and Chelsea buying at the wrong prices its very likey that Man U will have the least signings of these teams. Liverpool will buy, and buy big and expensive. although the spots they need to increase are defensively and defensive minded midfielders mainly. Build a spine they can strengthen off throughout.

At the moment, your bet is probably good because there is such guess work about the market and who goes were.

Personally what id like to do in your situation is play up to the hype, take this bet now (although obv a few points more would be nicer for you, show him the 18-20 point gap at the end of the season as your argument). Then when the normal liverpool hype kicks in, id take the other side of the bet when it hits single figures at the start of the season . . . And free roll the 9-13 point market which is were i think the true line actually lies

/ waffle

[Theresa]

Eh, I havent posted in here before but Id 100% fill your boots with that bet.

Carroll, Suarez, Gerrard back, Meirles second season, Kenny talking about strengthening the CB positions... not to mention to Xmas signings getting a preseason with the club.

From a static standpoint, this team right now (with no changes) would beat that handicap imo. Never mind any additions and rumours of money to be spent.

All IMO anyway.

[Carl_Morrissey]

Eh, I havent posted in here before but Id 100% fill your boots with that bet.

Carroll, Suarez, Gerrard back, Meirles second season, Kenny talking about strengthening the CB positions... not to mention to Xmas signings getting a preseason with the club.

From a static standpoint, this team right now (with no changes) would beat that handicap imo. Never mind any additions and rumours of money to be spent.

All IMO anyway.

to try and look at the league table now and estimate how many points youd get next year;

Liverpool are currently having an underachieving season, although they have had a pretty good period since Kenny took over. Man Utd also are believed to be over achieving considering the strength of their team, with an argument that they will win the league being the 3rd best team in the league (something i dont really believe, but appreciate the merit to it)
So with current 18 point gap between the two teams, Liverpool having a tougher final two games - to say they'll end on 18 point gap is about right (United resting final game, etc)

so making up 18 points, can it be done next season? and is 13 points a good bet?

Theyve lost Stevie G for long periods of the season, and it cant be argued that he is a super player. They seem to perform better over the last few years without him, but invariably if Kenny can manage to have a team with him in it a long with the two boys up top then they should increase strongly.
When you look at both teams in the transfer market and are led to believe the hype of liverpool in the market, then they should slightly shade the summer signings.

Fergie notoriously doesnt panic buy, and with City, liverpool, Real Madrid and Chelsea buying at the wrong prices its very likey that Man U will have the least signings of these teams. Liverpool will buy, and buy big and expensive. although the spots they need to increase are defensively and defensive minded midfielders mainly. Build a spine they can strengthen off throughout.

At the moment, your bet is probably good because there is such guess work about the market and who goes were.

Personally what id like to do in your situation is play up to the hype, take this bet now (although obv a few points more would be nicer for you, show him the 18-20 point gap at the end of the season as your argument). Then when the normal liverpool hype kicks in, id take the other side of the bet when it hits single figures at the start of the season . . . And free roll the 9-13 point market which is were i think the true line actually lies

/ waffle

Thanks guys, both really helpful. Almost sure he wont budge on the -13, he's pretty much on a wave of United orgasm after their wrapping up of the title at the weekend so I'll be looking to sure up the bet by seasons end before he realises he probably has the worse side. I'll probably negotiate a Xmas buy out. Cant be much harm, Liverpool get a grade A CB and winger I really love my side!

[Raheny Red]

What price would yiz have Dortmund at for next season? I layed my mate €25 E/W 1st 2 1/2 the odds. Just wondering what any of you reckon they'll be over the summer?