Blackburn @ evens = money in the bank! new manager or whatever, don't turn that price down....
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Couple of lays for you kids today.
First is very much weather permitting but is still officially on. Inverness are going to Hearts defending a 13 month away unbeaten streak, pretty awesome for a team like them, includes draws at Ibrox and Parkhead. They've been pretty much odds on to lose all away games this year but still haven't. The run will end sometime but I'm going keep riding the gravy train until they do. Lay Hearts at 1.76
Other one I could be throwing my money away but Barca at 1.3 away to Espanyol looks a little short to me. Espanyol have won all seven home games this season, but on the flip side Barca have won all their away games. I'm sure if Barca turn up on the top of their game they'll sweep them aside but it's a local derby and I have a hunch it's going to be tight.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by HappyasLarry View PostBlackburn @ evens = money in the bank! new manager or whatever, don't turn that price down....
Banker of the day though is AC Milan 4/5 home to Roma unless i'm missing something
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostYep have that one backed. Also think Spurs are big @ 4/6 away to Blackpool
Banker of the day though is AC Milan 4/5 home to Roma unless i'm missing something
Milan should win that game easily, playing some class football of late since they've changed to there 4-3-1-2 system, scoring plenty and concereding very little. Roma have been pretty inconsistant but handy on their day. I tend to never go in much on teams I support as bias tends to haze my judgement, but I certainly wouldn't talk you out of lumping on.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostCouple of lays for you kids today.
First is very much weather permitting but is still officially on. Inverness are going to Hearts defending a 13 month away unbeaten streak, pretty awesome for a team like them, includes draws at Ibrox and Parkhead. They've been pretty much odds on to lose all away games this year but still haven't. The run will end sometime but I'm going keep riding the gravy train until they do. Lay Hearts at 1.76
Other one I could be throwing my money away but Barca at 1.3 away to Espanyol looks a little short to me. Espanyol have won all seven home games this season, but on the flip side Barca have won all their away games. I'm sure if Barca turn up on the top of their game they'll sweep them aside but it's a local derby and I have a hunch it's going to be tight.
I've layed Barca two times two many this season. Clearly on another planet, there wont be a third time
On Palermo (2.3) today and Napoli-1(evs)vs lecceProfit before people.
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostMilan pffffftOriginally posted by The Situation View PostMilan should win that game easily, playing some class football of late since they've changed to there 4-3-1-2 system, scoring plenty and concereding very little. Roma have been pretty inconsistant but handy on their day. I tend to never go in much on teams I support as bias tends to haze my judgement, but I certainly wouldn't talk you out of lumping on.
This! You seem to be on a horrible cooler atm, hope your luck changesProfit before people.
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Need to recoup some money after yesterdays loses. City are ludicrously short tonight. Everton have had a good record in this fixture in recent years, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings, and as I've said before thier game seems to suit playing against these bigger teams. Arteta is suspended but has been playing poorly this year anyway but Rodwell is back which is a bonus. It's going to be sliced turkey for Christmas if City win this oneProfit before people.
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Originally posted by KevIMF View PostTevez to score 2 or more @ 7/1 also worth a shot.
24-03-10 EPL Man City 0 - 2 Everton
16-01-10 EPL Everton 2 - 0 Man City
25-04-09 EPL Everton 1 - 2 Man City
13-12-08 EPL Man City 0 - 1 Everton
26-02-08 EPL Man City 0 - 2 Everton
12-01-08 EPL Everton 1 - 0 Man City
So after putting this up get on the goalfest tonight
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Originally posted by TheProfitablePunter View PostWeekend Selection: St Etienne to beat Arles @ 1.4
In a weekend where there will be many a coupon buster the banker pick has to be St Etienne even considering their poor run in the last few games.
St Etienne has played 8 France Ligue 1 matches this season on Stade Geoffroy Guichard. On home ground St Etienne has won 3, drawn 4 and lost 1 matches. This ranks Les Pantheres (The Panthers) 11th in home team performance in the France Ligue 1.
Arles has played 8 France Ligue 1 matches this season away from home. On away ground Arles has won 0, drawn 2 and lost 6 matches. This ranks Les Lions (The Lions) 20th in away team performance in the France Ligue 1.
Prediction: 2-0
Selection: Bordeaux to beat Lens @ 1.57
The France Ligue 1 football match between Bordeaux (10th) and Lens (19th) kicks off on 22 December 2010. Bordeaux has played 9 France Ligue 1 matches this season at home. On home ground Bordeaux has won 3, drawn 4 and lost 2 matches. This ranks Bordeaux 14th in home team performance in the France Ligue 1.
Lens has played 8 France Ligue 1 matches this season away from home. On away ground Lens has won 1, drawn 3 and lost 4 matches. This ranks Lens 16th in away team performance in the France Ligue 1.
Prediction: Bordeaux 2-1
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Originally posted by Straddle View PostWhat is the opinion of the "both teams to score" market?
Games on the 28th that look good for this are:
Tottenham v Newcastle
West Ham v Everton
Doncaster v Ipswich
Millwall v LeicesterFoldaramus et foldarabimus
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Originally posted by Percy007 View PostStoke at home to a dire Fulham, this has got to be max bet material @ 5/6 (pp).
Thats just too good a price to pass up, anyone else think Stoke overpriced here?
Chelsea look short considering their awful recent form and the fact Bolton have a day and a bit extra rest. Either lay Chelsea or the 9/1 Bolton draw no bet on Boyles looks meaty...Profit before people.
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Passed by a PP shop an hour ago there was a special on United to win to nil @ 7/4
Very tempted to do this. 3 of the last 4 meetings have finished 1-0 Utd.
Also can't see where the brummie goals will come from.
Max bet was 200 afaik, but theres PP shops everywhere so you could easily get around to a few.
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Originally posted by Aya14 View PostPassed by a PP shop an hour ago there was a special on United to win to nil @ 7/4
Very tempted to do this. 3 of the last 4 meetings have finished 1-0 Utd.
Also can't see where the brummie goals will come from.
Max bet was 200 afaik, but theres PP shops everywhere so you could easily get around to a few.
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I know the game is not until Sunday but im taking it now incase the price disappears
Falkirk at home to Stirling Albion due to this story http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/foot...on/9331394.stm
Falkirk -1 evens with PP
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Guest
J Spector is available at25/1 on bet365*20/1 (on PP) in running for the first goal
He is priced as a defender but West Ham said he is playing in the hole behind the front man
worth a dirty tenner imo
**bollix shoulda scored
fcukin defender playing in the hole /
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Blackpool 3/1ish and draw about 11/4 on Betfair. I think its best to stay away from it, you just don't know what way Liverpool will line up or if there will be an improvement or not.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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I make liverpool just over half a goal favourites, which would make them slightly odds on
Then assessing team news - torres awol (simular to drog, just isnt the same player anymore)
Gerrard suspended
J cole, conchesky, johnson all possibly out too (possibly for the best? )
You would have to adjust liverpool to 11/10 or so, if not slightly bigger
Market seems about right
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It's a game I'd rather get involved in running if I was getting on. Very much dependent on how well Liverpool press Blackpool when they have the ball imo. B'pool have one of the highest passes made(8670)/completion rates(76%) in the premier league this season. In games where they've deviated below their average pass completed rate they've tended to struggle. Their two lowest pass % this year have been against Blackburn and Bolton, teams that are renowned for playing tough pressing football, they lost against Blackburn 2-0 and picked up a point against Bolton who should have probably won. They don't seem to have much of a plan B when their passing breaks down, probably something that will come with more premier league experience if they hopefully stay up, but it's impressive what Holloway is doing their and more so because of the way he's doing it.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostIt's a game I'd rather get involved in running if I was getting on. Very much dependent on how well Liverpool press Blackpool when they have the ball imo. B'pool have one of the highest passes made(8670)/completion rates(76%) in the premier league this season. In games where they've deviated below their average pass completed rate they've tended to struggle. Their two lowest pass % this year have been against Blackburn and Bolton, teams that are renowned for playing tough pressing football, they lost against Blackburn 2-0 and picked up a point against Bolton who should have probably won. They don't seem to have much of a plan B when their passing breaks down, probably something that will come with more premier league experience if they hopefully stay up, but it's impressive what Holloway is doing their and more so because of the way he's doing it.
Dalglish has always been cautious in my mind and his sides have always pressed and been combative. Semi-interesting piece here, http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/b...2011-liverpool. I think it will be very interesting to see how he approaches tonight.
Still think Blackpool were slightly big at 4.3, and took a little at 4.3-4.2.
How do you take into account the new manager factor etc, Semibluff? I've been trying to look up stats for a theory i have but it's proving difficult, but is there any possible "bounce" factor for Liverpool after the weekend? Or will the new manager, good-feeling carryover? How do you weight the "Dalglish factor"?
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Originally posted by The C Kid View PostGreat post. Liverpool away from home under Hodgson would have been the kind of team that would suit Blackpool very well imo. I had planned to have a decent bet, but obv the manager change was a spanner in the works.
Dalglish has always been cautious in my mind and his sides have always pressed and been combative. Semi-interesting piece here, http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/b...2011-liverpool. I think it will be very interesting to see how he approaches tonight.
Still think Blackpool were slightly big at 4.3, and took a little at 4.3-4.2.
How do you take into account the new manager factor etc, Semibluff? I've been trying to look up stats for a theory i have but it's proving difficult, but is there any possible "bounce" factor for Liverpool after the weekend? Or will the
new manager, good-feeling carryover? How do you weight the "Dalglish factor"?Profit before people.
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Seriously LOL. Gerard is their drive. I'm surprised his suspension kicked in quite so early. Thought it was one game and then suspension. That Liverpool team will not win tonight, rudderless without Gerrard.
People talking them up because they contained a United team moving in 2nd-3rd gear. The Dalglish factor won't hide the fact that they are simply not good enough. They are 12th for a reason (lol blaming Hogdson)
I'm going score draw for my few bobs, but for big investors. I'd deffo lay Liverpool. Mid table battle anything can happen. 3-3 for the big score draw (fewer bobs- love to see the Blacks score the 4th in Injury time)
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Originally posted by The C Kid View PostLiverpool team from a source i'd consider semi-reliable.
Pepe, Kelly, Wilson, Skrtel, Agger, Lucas, Meireles, Johnson, Maxi, Kuyt, Torres.
Steven gerrard ---> Torres, Reina is how id see the hierarchy in liverpool, with kuyt in behind these three.
Your def missing the capt, torres is as good as missing*
Should you allow for more considering this? If so, its now verging on a bet for liverpool
* to continue on the missing player. Chelsea have say a goal rating of .94 with a fully fit team. Yet, you cant allow them hold this rating week in week out, as you would be making them a bet everyweek if so. The amount of goals that run through Drogba up front is phenomenal. Between assists, goals and general style of play (holding up balls as they allow fat frank get forward) he is integral.
So you now have to over compensate for drogba's form and perhaps bring chelsea down to .8 of a goal rating, which has you in line with the market.
Using the above ^ - how important is Torres. And were will the goals come without him?
Personally as much as your stats prove that blackpool are a passing team and like to play football, i think they are found out when playing the bigger teams and are susceptible to flood gates opening. Their results against the top 4 prove this, as do the stats behind the games. Id always struggle to take them in games versus open footballing teams who are very capable of shutting down proper footballing teams week in week out in europe, never mind the over performing blackpool (not to take away from the success of what hollaway has done)
Regarding new managers, I normally would increase the team ratings slightly on this, or should i say id imagine teams will play closer to their optimum rating and ability as motivational reasons should be high. If you saw liverpool over perform the weekend (definitely considering recent performances), you will see this to be true.
If a team is trying its best for a manager who gets sacked unfairly, perhaps due to injuries to key players, id be careful not to give any more weight to a new manager here as they were at their peak already. Sometimes the unrest created may actually be a negative factor. With the Pardew debacle i down graded newcastle slightly for their first game under him
So although with liverpool players missing perhaps making it a bet, im arguing that blackpool wont be allowed play their expansive football. Buoyed by a decent performance last week the liverpool players may find a performance to match their pay cheques.
I'll be leaving it myself
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Originally posted by Solskjaer View PostSeriously LOL. Gerard is their drive. I'm surprised his suspension kicked in quite so early. Thought it was one game and then suspension. That Liverpool team will not win tonight, rudderless without Gerrard.Last edited by The Situation; 12-01-11, 14:11.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostYou're wrong. Liverpool have a better win % without Stevie G over a very large sample since 2000. Not saying he's a bad player but he's very specialist, can't play in an orthodox 4-4-2 imo, Rafa played him in that system for over 3 years which didnt suit him or Alonso. The signing of Mascherano got the best out of both of them, with Gerrard playing in the advanced role behind the front man. It's no coincidence that this was liverpool's and Gerrards most successful spell in his career. This current team doesn't have the players to play that system anymore rendering Gerrard less useful.
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Originally posted by Solskjaer View Postin ratios have to be weighed against magnitude. For example against a lesser team the better players might be rested and against the better teams it might be harder to get a result. The fact of the matter is, any Liverpool achievement in the years you mention have been driven by Gerrard. He is a huge loss when missing. Anyone thinks different is suffering from some kind of dilusion brought on by reading crappy meaningless stats instead of watching the fecking game.
Statistics are often used inappropriately in soccer discussions to further one view or another, but in this case the sample size makes the argument pretty compelling.
It's certainly not enough to just dismiss it as delusional, it seems fairly well grounded IMO.
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Originally posted by Solskjaer View Postin ratios have to be weighed against magnitude. For example against a lesser team the better players might be rested and against the better teams it might be harder to get a result.
You seem to have far too simplistic view on football, case and point your recent views on Modric, just because he isn't banging in goals doesn't diminish his huge importance to the side, and if you don't see what he adds to the team it's probably not worth my while arguing with you. Alonso was a far more important cog in the liverpool team over the years then Gerrard is/was.Last edited by The Situation; 12-01-11, 14:56.Profit before people.
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Simplistic view on football , of course I do. Mr Bill Shankly will tell you that's exactly the view to take.
You guys overthink the game. Check out my predictions, I'm never far off the mark.
And Keane, Situation said I was WRONG. I merely alluded to his dilusion. :-)
PS. I merely said Moderate was overrated. I never said he wasn't a good footballer.
He does choke in front of goal though.
Now as this is a gambling thread I'll reiterate. Lay Liverpool tonight.
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Originally posted by Howard Finkel View PostEveryone should pick up the days wages today on China in the Asia cup vs Qatar.
China are 8/5 and should be odds on imo.
For anyone who knows anything about soccer, sure Qatar were the whipping boys in the original FIFA
Banker imo
as 4 liverpool i think ill be staying away from that 1, anything could happen.
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Originally posted by The C Kid View PostDalglish has always been cautious in my mind and his sides have always pressed and been combative. Semi-interesting piece here, http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/b...2011-liverpool. I think it will be very interesting to see how he approaches tonight.
Jonwilson's comment 10 January 2011 9:58PM
Nowhere have I said Dalglish will fail or that he's outmoded. I've merely analysed his tactics at the four club's he's managed. Very difficult to draw conclusions from Sunday with the early pen and red card. The strap asks a question I haven't tried to answer.
more so in the sport section due to...the usual guff
*///
of the article itself (if anyone cares)
and at least one of the centre‑backs had licence to stride out with the ball into midfield
so this freedom to come forward was not a team thing, it was more a player thing
(gillespie was very comfortable on the ball as well)
a caginess had started to set in. His last full season yielded 77 goals, but a starting eleven away to Arsenal that featured six players who'd spent most of their career in defence, plus Ronnie Whelan, was indicative of a growing mood of caution
At the time Pool were getting out muscled (decline set in in 88 imo) so an away game against a strong competitor???
Without seeing the team the full backs on both sides were people comfortable in wide midfield positions (**Stan/Nicol)
plus Ronnie Whelan
Id say he cut his cloth accordingly at both Blackburn and Newcastle
Apart from Shearer, quality players choose other teams and he had a very workmanlike squad (he tried to sign better players but they choose bigger clubs)
As for Celtic.... lol
piece smells of a good writer being given a small time frame to with a Liverpool piece about the manager (not his usual style at all)
**never liked Stan in a Liverpool shirt
Nicol played all over the park
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