i probably should leave it
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Originally posted by Rekop Dog View PostLaying Spurs at evs in the early kick off tomorrow. Everton are not the sort of team you'd like to face after only two and a half days rest from a tough European away tie. They've bounced back well from another shocking start to the season with two wins recently, and have a really good record against Spurs at WHL. Think they're fairly evenly matched in term of ability with maybe Spurs shading it up front, but the aforementioned lack of recovery time will play a huge factor imo!
Also backing Lazio at 8/11 on Sunday at home to Cagliari. Cagliari are pretty poor away from Sardinia, not winning an away tie since last January. In contrast Lazio are riding high at the top of the table, been brilliant at home and should keep the run going here.
Toying with getting on Inter at 4/7(boyles) in the San Siro tonight. Sampdoria had a long trip to Ukraine on Thursday, wheras Inter only played one half of football on Wednesday night. Prob wait for starting line ups before getting on!Profit before people.
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Originally posted by Straddle View PostStrike Rate: 9/11
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Japanese J League FC Tokyo v Albirex Niigata - LOSE
Championship Watford v Scunthorpe - LOSE
Dutch Eredivisie De Graafschap v Heracles - LOSE
5 pts each, over 2.5 goals.
Groningen v ADO Den Haag - over 2.5 goals
Utrecht v Excelsior - over 2.5 goals
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Originally posted by TommyGunne View PostStraddle, I'd be interested to see how you are coming up with these bets. I'm modelling a load of stuff surrounding soccer at the moment, so would be interested in seeing what sort of approach you are taking.
Thanks
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Wouldn't mind seeing that pm Straddle please if you want, I assume your using some sort of poisson distribution?
Anyways out to get the big boys and Liverpool this weekend. Rangers are the first of my lays at about 1/5 against Inverness. It's one of those fixtures that often throws up strange results with Rangers only beating them in two of there last six meetings at Ibrox which is a very surprising stat. Inverness are coming into the game in good form, unbeaten in four including two away wins. It's also possible that after beating Celtic and a good draw against Vanencia that Rangers could approach this in a after the lord mayors show style and not be at their best. I also think the overs advised by Straddle has a slight edge.
Small lays on Chelsea, City and Liverpool as well.Last edited by The Situation; 29-10-10, 16:38.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by Straddle View PostGroningen v ADO Den Haag - over 2.5 goals - WIN
Utrecht v Excelsior - over 2.5 goals - LOSEOriginally posted by Straddle View Postover 2.5 goals
Saturday:
Leicester v Preston - LOSE
Scunthorpe v Leeds - WIN
Rangers v Inverness - LOSE
Gent v Mechelen - WIN
Heracles v Ajax - WIN
Wolfsburg v Stuttgart - LOSE
werder Bremen v Nurnberg - WIN
Sunday:
Aalesund v SK Brann - WIN
over 1.5 goals: 23/24
over 2.5 goals: 15/24
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West Brom are a little short at B'pool tonight. Small lay on them.
Focussing all my midweek attention on laying the crap out of Milan against Madrid. Milan are proving very easily tactically outclassed and Jose is the king of exploiting opponents weaknesses and he's owned Milan in recent meetings at Inter and when they met a few weeks ago. Milan are extremely low on work-rate in attacking areas, Ibra and Robinho are basically lazy cunts. On two occasions this year the goalkeeper on the opposing teams have covered more distance in a game than Ibra. This lack of work-rate and pressing high up the pitch will make it easy for the likes of Alonso and kediera to retain possesion and ping it about under little pressure. Milan are also hugely lacking in mobility in Midfield and defence. Madrid should be pretty motivated too because any result should see them progress into the last 16 with two games remaining to rest players.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by Straddle View Postover 2.5 goals
Werder Bremen v FC Twente - LOSE
Gent v Sporting Lisbon - WIN
Getafe v Stuttgart - WIN
over 1.5 goals: 26/27
over 2.5 goals: 17/27
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To add in more selections in a quiet weekend my under 2.5 games for the weekend are:
Udinese-Cagliari
Sampdoria-Catania
Birmingham-West Ham
Napoli-Parma
Fulham-Aston Villa
Fiorentina-Chievo
Sunderland-Stoke
Bordeaux-Valenciennes
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spurs and derby to win at 5/1 also put a wee bet on pool to win...3/1 at home.cudnt resist even if it is chelsea ther playn.
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Nice work on those unders at the weekend Straddle.
Udinese are my midweek tip away to Catania at about ~2's. Two sides recent form figures tell the whole story. Udinese are unbeaten in five(winning 4 of these) in the league wheras Catania haven't won a game in that time. Catania are also struggling with injuries especially at the back and a second game in a week will really test their limited squad while Udinese have more depth to deal with a double fixture week.
Also will prob lay Liverpool tomorrow night at Wigan.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by Keane View PostAre these over 2.5 or over 1.5?
Originally posted by Straddle View Post
To add in more selections in a quiet weekend my under 2.5 games for the weekend are:
Udinese-Cagliari - WIN
Sampdoria-Catania - WIN
Birmingham-West Ham - LOSE
Napoli-Parma - WIN
Fulham-Aston Villa - WIN
Fiorentina-Chievo - WIN
Sunderland-Stoke - WIN
Bordeaux-Valenciennes - WINOriginally posted by Straddle View PostNot many selections this week:
Thursday:
OB v Young Boys (Europa League) - LOSE
Saturday:
Groningen v NAC Breda (Dutch Eredivise) - WIN
Sunday:
Lyngby v SonderjyskE (Denmark) - LOSE
Strike rate:
over 1.5 goals: 28/30
over 2.5 goals: 18/30
under 2.5 goals: 7/8
Tuesday:
Portsmouth v QPR - under 2.5
Millwall v Norwich - under 2.5
Burnley v Doncaster - over 2.5
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Originally posted by Straddle View PostOnly 2.5 goals. I'm quoting over 1.5 to look back and see if the ROI can be optimised.
Originally posted by Straddle View PostStrike rate:
over 1.5 goals: 29/31
over 2.5 goals: 18/31
under 2.5 goals: 9/10
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Originally posted by Straddle View PostUnder 2.5 goals
Genoa-Bologna - WIN
Catania-Udinese - WIN
Lecce-Inter - WIN
Brescia-Juventus - WIN
Cagliari-Napoli - WIN
Roma-Fiorentina - LOSE
Chievo-Bari - WIN
Strike rate:
over 1.5 goals: 29/31
over 2.5 goals: 18/31
under 2.5 goals: 15/17
Thursday:
Parma - Sampdoria - under 2.5 goals.
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Originally posted by Straddle View Post
Thursday:
Parma - Sampdoria - under 2.5 goals.
Strange that there's been so little goals in Serie A so far this season compared to the last ten years. Maybe it's just an anomoly or possibly their reverting to their 1980's/90's type. Either way there's plenty of value around in the unders market at the moment.Last edited by The Situation; 11-11-10, 18:52.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by Straddle View PostStrike rate:
over 1.5 goals: 29/31
over 2.5 goals: 18/31
under 2.5 goals: 16/18
Thursday:
Parma - Sampdoria - under 2.5 goals. - WIN
Friday - Under 2.5 goals:
Istres-Vannes
Nimes-Troyes
Boulogne-Metz
Angers-Nantes
Le Havre-Laval
Clermont-Chateroux
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Originally posted by Semibluff View Poststraddle, is there a percise price you are backing them at? say will you back it at 1.9 and not if 1.75?
Of do you just back the unders in a certain game regardless of what price it is??
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Saturday:
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Under 2.5
Mainz-Hanover
Marseille-Lens
Monaco-Arles
Nottingham-QPR
Over 2.5
Leicester-Derby
Tottenham-Blackburn
Portsmouth-Doncaster
Newcastle-Fulham
Kaiserslautern-Stuttgart
Roda-Utrecht
Caen-Lille
Burnley-Watford
Leeds-Bristol
Wigan-West Brom
Eupen-Mechelen
Crystal Palace-Coventry
West Ham-Blackpool
Club Bruges-Lierse
Koln-Monchengladbach
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Ive been looking at this weeks friendly internationals. Normally, I hate punting in friendlys, but then again, I hate passing up value when I see it. And the game that sticks out for me is Ireland v Norway.
Here is Norways group from the current european c/ships qualifying campaign. They have played 3 and won 3, with 2 away wins against Iceland and Cyprus, and a home win over Portugal.
Group H
Teams P W D L F A +/- Pts
1 Norway 3 3 0 0 5 2 3 9
2 Portugal 4 2 1 1 10 7 3 7
3 Denmark 3 2 0 1 4 3 1 6
4 Cyprus 3 0 1 2 5 8 -3 1
5 Iceland 3 0 0 3 2 6 -4 0
As for friendlys, Norway have played 7 friendlys in the last 12 months, winning 5 and losing 2.
Oct 10t 2009 Norway 1 v 0 South Africa
Nov 14th 2010 Switzerland 0 v 1 Norway
Mar 03rd 2010 Slovakia 0 v 1 Norway
May 29th 2010 Norway 2 v 1 Montenegro
June 2nd 2010 Norway 0 v 1 Ukraine
Aug 11th 2010 Norway 2 v 1 France
Oct 12th 2010 Croatia 2 v 1 Norway
Looking at the line ups, Norway seem to field extremely strong teams for their friendlys as there doesnt seem to be much change from the team that plays the euro games and the friendlies.
They are ranked 13th in the world, 19 places above us. We have a severely depleted team. Can someone give me a good reason not to have a decent punt on Norway at approz 9/4?
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Originally posted by connie147 View PostLooking at the line ups, Norway seem to field extremely strong teams for their friendlys as there doesnt seem to be much change from the team that plays the euro games and the friendlies.
They are ranked 13th in the world, 19 places above us. We have a severely depleted team. Can someone give me a good reason not to have a decent punt on Norway at approz 9/4?
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International friendly accumulators are a worse bet than hoping to hit the euromillions. Ireland / Norway will be won or lost down Irelands left flank. I dont know if I can see Norway winning 30% of the time for value (3.25 Stan James). I would also factor in that the norwegian league is coming to the end and a few of the players will be feeling the effects of a full season on top of playing away.Last edited by Straddle; 17-11-10, 16:22.
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Originally posted by Reaps View PostAnyone else think there's some value in the 9/2 about Spurs at Arsenal today?
Edit Huddlestone is injured too, major negative from Spurs perspective.Last edited by The Situation; 20-11-10, 12:16.Profit before people.
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