FG minority is the most logical outcome imo, it's where my money is. Although I also expect Trump to win the presidency by a landslide so I may just have gone mad.
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I really do hope FF are paying you for this, if not you need a new hobby :-)Originally posted by angle_grinder View Post
I've twisted it every way I can and as far as I can see max for FF is 42, minimum for FG is 48.
I would expect the gap to be more in the 15-20 seat region.Comment
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I got on the FG total seats overs when the line was 50.5, after someone here tipping it. Interesting to see the line is now 54.5.
Would love to know how much stock is put in all of the online anger, frustration and contempt being shown the FG/LB coalition's way? I would very strongly feel that a lot of this should be discounted; it's clear from boards.ie, the Journal, Facebook, etc... that there are a sizeable number of people extremely dissatisfied with the current political landscape, but I'd argue many of them are making a level of noise far out of sync with the proportion of likely voters that fully agree with them.
I know I'd never dream of getting involved in a political argument with the 'anti-everything/they're all CORRUPT TRAITORS, the lot of them' gang, some of the more passionate on boards.ie seemingly post non-stop all the hours of the day and show no signs of deviating from their core beliefs no matter what counter-argument is put forward, indeed becoming more angered as any discussions go on. I believe they, like the Trump supporters in the US, are simply monopolising the debate via their level of sound and fury more than anything else. Furthermore, in Ireland I believe many of those who may agree with some of the legitimate frustrations that these type of political commentators voice, are also less likely to actually head to the polling station tomorrow! Voting is somewhat of a learned habit; it's harder to start than it is to vote general election after referendum after local election and so on.
Looking forward to the weekend anyhow, always fun to see the big winners, losers and the great stories that come out of a general election
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..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
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Ha, I'm gonna borrow his bike I think! It just made me think of how awkward it must be to vote if you don't have a car; like I'm in Dublin 18 and still the walk is about an hour each way to the school they're using (up in Kilternan). If I was sitting in one of the many estates near me and not too bothered, no chance I'd vote. Don't think my wife is going to vote, and that's mainly because she's not used to it, the marriage referendum is the only time she's used her vote!Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostDon't give your bro the car, we need you as a voter
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Anyone care to set a line on what the single biggest priced candidate to be elected will be?
PaddyPower I guess for referenceTurning millions into thousandsComment
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Dunno about odds when market closes, but there's a Social Democrats guy in Galway West called Niall O’Tuathaill who has been backed in from 33/1 to 11/4.Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostComment
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Fianna Fail line was 39.5 today and Fine Gael was 52.5. Big enough swing in the afternoon to make it 37.5 and 54.5 now. Bah, was hoping to get on Fine Gael 52.5.Comment
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Here's my bets.
Turn out under 64.5% @ 5/6
Glenna Lynch to be elect Dublin Bay South 50/1
Jim O'Callaghan to be elected Dublin Bay South 5/1
Labour under 10.5 seats 8/11(? Cant remember)Comment
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
I think the same as well but the value on those was terrible. Although Eamon Ryan was 9/2 earlier in the week was a good price.Comment
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Anybody but JC today, JC is going down! Fuck you Joe Costello!
Under 65.5% turnout surely a huge bet today?
Us Irish are lazy fucks especially with rain and wasn't there only 61% for gay marriage? Where everyone made it a mission to vote in that which I doubt they will today. I'm thinking 62.5 should be line, please inform me if wrong before I pull the trigger in ~30 minsGo big or go homeless.Comment
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Alright was 67 and 70% turnout last 2 general elections, I have pussied out. gg, glGo big or go homeless.Comment
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The 6.2% invalid/spoiled votes in the 1945 Presidential Election is a huge anomaly with the figure veering between 1-1.5% for every other presidential or general election. I wonder is there an interesting story there, a big campaign to vote for Churchill or Stalin or suchlike.Originally posted by Emmet View PostComment
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..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
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..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
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Something to consider is that the electoral register is more than likely to have quite a lot of 'head room'.
A polling card arrived for me in Dublin, in a house in a country that I last lived in in 2010...Comment
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Last bet of the election, under 24.5 on Sinn Fein. Looking forward to a second election, these are great fun.Comment
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..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
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loseOriginally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."Comment
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..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
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Yeah we're screwed. Half of my mates voting Renua ffs. Based on their tax calculator.Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostHis rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.Comment
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..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
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I presume you are using those figures for the purpose of finding out the validity of your bet ? They are quite optimistic.Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostComment
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..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
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Put a saver on that at 25'sOriginally posted by jack90210 View Post
Isn't "saver" such a wonderful bit of gambling nonsense!
Tipster puts up a bet, then says have a saver on this one at 6/1 as if "sur that bet on the 12/1 shot is fine now as I have a saver"
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I should too really! My local Rena hopeful is Terence Flanagan who a neighbour described as a "two-faced wanking cunt" however.Originally posted by elbows View Post"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."Comment
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Definitely! Student me had unrealistic expectations!Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Seriously though, they're the only low tax advocates, and the country is moving in the completely opposite direction to her socially, so I doubt she's going to have any effect there.Comment
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Wow, that's a great resource - can't believe the increase in the voting age population over 1992, pretty much an increase of 50%! That is just mind-blowing. Changes a few things in my head, to be honest... can't wait for the results to start coming in, I voted just after 8am, close up those polling stations and get to counting FFSOriginally posted by Emmet View Post
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I'd happily sacrifice all my bets losing just to see Lucinda miss out on a seat. Chances are I'll lose on all my bets and she'll get a seat though.Last edited by Teddie; 26-02-16, 15:35.Comment
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Just went in on SF under 24.5 - I think that the day of voting really focuses the mind when it comes to fear of trying something new/fear of the unknown, people are apt to go with the familiar if in doubt.
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Originally posted by ionapaul View Post
Also when the afternoon comes and most of their supporters are just getting out of bed it will probably be raining so that should be a lot of them off voting.Comment
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Have also backed the FG minority gov once RDIII said it had no chance��. If it was to happen who would be likely for Tánaiste?Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
FGers quoted in PP next Tánaiste market ;
Frances Fitzgerald 8/1
Coveney 14/1
Leo 16/1
Noonan / Bruton 33/1Comment
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Yeah of the 5 , probably Coveney and Bruton are most dispensable from their ministries. Might have a punt on Coveney and a saver on Bruton / Noonan. I had to look up who was deputy leader of FG , James Reilly remember him.Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostComment
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I'd have thought Noonan would be too old at this stage. You'd think the party would want one of the one and coming lads to give him more exposure and to appeal to the younger voters. Having two old guys like Kenny and Noonan leading the way would seem like a poor PR decision. Similar problem for Bruton with the added bonus of his trying to oust Kenny. Be amazed if he got it.Comment
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I thought Simon Harris was the golden boy?Comment
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Doubt it would be Bruton. He ran against him for the leadership before the last Election and allegedly lost by a very small number of votes. No chance of a re count if I remember as the votes were destroyed! I would imagine that is why Bruton lost the finance gig to Noonan.Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
Wouldn't be Vardakar either as he supported Bruton in the heave. Probably why he got the poisoned chalice of Health after O' Reilly couldn't deliver on anything he promised.
I have a feeling the biggest winner in this election will be Paddy Power.Comment
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SF out to 25.5 again if anyone is looking for a piece.Comment
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..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
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The Ryan Tubridy of FG partyOriginally posted by Keane View Post
Permanent pole stuck up his giddy hole
Fitzgerald should get 2nd in command if they get back in without FF Leo has only her to worry about for the next leaderComment
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Decent weather is dicking me on the turnout bet.Comment
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Just reloaded.Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
Think 25 is the absolute max I can see them gettingHis rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.Comment
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What price was Mary butler (FF) to top the poll when you posted this Adam? 50/1?Originally posted by AdMMM View PostComment
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Sinn Fein PP line now at 23.5His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.Comment
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they got an unexpected seat in Offaly, 23 is probably spot on nowOriginally posted by elbows View Post"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."Comment
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Speaking of being spectacularly wrong...Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
Send on your b/acc details when you get a chance. Well played and cheers for the action.Comment
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"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."Comment
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Labour to lose speaking rights it looks like. One TD short with 6Comment
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Angle Grinder deserves to win the predictions money even though he wasn't in it.Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostHis rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.Comment
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Aodhan O' Riordain should get them over the line.Originally posted by KevIRL View PostProfit before people.Comment
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..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
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that's my constituency and literally anything could happen yetOriginally posted by The Situation View Post"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."Comment
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