FG minority is the most logical outcome imo, it's where my money is. Although I also expect Trump to win the presidency by a landslide so I may just have gone mad.
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Irish General Election betting thread
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostI still wouldn't rule out FF overtaking FG.
If FG are the bigger party I can see FF enter a voting pact with them to ensure stability but only with a new Taoiseach as I can't see how they would work with a nodding donkey like Enda Kenny.
I've twisted it every way I can and as far as I can see max for FF is 42, minimum for FG is 48.
I would expect the gap to be more in the 15-20 seat region.
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I got on the FG total seats overs when the line was 50.5, after someone here tipping it. Interesting to see the line is now 54.5.
Would love to know how much stock is put in all of the online anger, frustration and contempt being shown the FG/LB coalition's way? I would very strongly feel that a lot of this should be discounted; it's clear from boards.ie, the Journal, Facebook, etc... that there are a sizeable number of people extremely dissatisfied with the current political landscape, but I'd argue many of them are making a level of noise far out of sync with the proportion of likely voters that fully agree with them.
I know I'd never dream of getting involved in a political argument with the 'anti-everything/they're all CORRUPT TRAITORS, the lot of them' gang, some of the more passionate on boards.ie seemingly post non-stop all the hours of the day and show no signs of deviating from their core beliefs no matter what counter-argument is put forward, indeed becoming more angered as any discussions go on. I believe they, like the Trump supporters in the US, are simply monopolising the debate via their level of sound and fury more than anything else. Furthermore, in Ireland I believe many of those who may agree with some of the legitimate frustrations that these type of political commentators voice, are also less likely to actually head to the polling station tomorrow! Voting is somewhat of a learned habit; it's harder to start than it is to vote general election after referendum after local election and so on.
Looking forward to the weekend anyhow, always fun to see the big winners, losers and the great stories that come out of a general election
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostDon't give your bro the car, we need you as a voter
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostAnyone care to set a line on what the single biggest priced candidate to be elected will be?
PaddyPower I guess for reference
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostThink those DBS bets are mad tbh! FG/SF will romp home one a piece, Lucinda/Kate will fight it out, and then Lab/Green.
I think the same as well but the value on those was terrible. Although Eamon Ryan was 9/2 earlier in the week was a good price.
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Anybody but JC today, JC is going down! Fuck you Joe Costello!
Under 65.5% turnout surely a huge bet today?
Us Irish are lazy fucks especially with rain and wasn't there only 61% for gay marriage? Where everyone made it a mission to vote in that which I doubt they will today. I'm thinking 62.5 should be line, please inform me if wrong before I pull the trigger in ~30 minsGo big or go homeless.
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Originally posted by Emmet View Post
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Postlets say we get FG 61, Lab 9, SocDem 6, so they get two or three independents on board. Does our FG/Lab/SD bet win or lose? Wasn't too clear what happens in that case on PP"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Postyeah? but there wasn't any option to bet '+independents' only '+any other party' which presumably independents don't count as.
EDIT:
ffsHis rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Postlets say we get FG 61, Lab 9, SocDem 6, so they get two or three independents on board. Does our FG/Lab/SD bet win or lose? Wasn't too clear what happens in that case on PP
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostOn that at 26/1. Fingers crossed.
Isn't "saver" such a wonderful bit of gambling nonsense!
Tipster puts up a bet, then says have a saver on this one at 6/1 as if "sur that bet on the 12/1 shot is fine now as I have a saver"
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Originally posted by elbows View PostYeah we're screwed. Half of my mates voting Renua ffs. Based on their tax calculator."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Postwould student you have voted against women's health rights in return for lower tax? Shows the power of tax, i guess.
Here's an example from Graham Linehan of what she is in favour of continuing: http://www.independent.ie/life/healt...-34469017.html
Seriously though, they're the only low tax advocates, and the country is moving in the completely opposite direction to her socially, so I doubt she's going to have any effect there.
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Originally posted by Emmet View Post
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Originally posted by ionapaul View PostJust went in on SF under 24.5 - I think that the day of voting really focuses the mind when it comes to fear of trying something new/fear of the unknown, people are apt to go with the familiar if in doubt.
Also when the afternoon comes and most of their supporters are just getting out of bed it will probably be raining so that should be a lot of them off voting.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostFG minority is the most logical outcome imo, it's where my money is. Although I also expect Trump to win the presidency by a landslide so I may just have gone mad.
FGers quoted in PP next Tánaiste market ;
Frances Fitzgerald 8/1
Coveney 14/1
Leo 16/1
Noonan / Bruton 33/1
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostInto 4/1 now, very good.
Coveney I'd say.
Maybe Noonan?
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I'd have thought Noonan would be too old at this stage. You'd think the party would want one of the one and coming lads to give him more exposure and to appeal to the younger voters. Having two old guys like Kenny and Noonan leading the way would seem like a poor PR decision. Similar problem for Bruton with the added bonus of his trying to oust Kenny. Be amazed if he got it.
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostYeah of the 5 , probably Coveney and Bruton are most dispensable from their ministries. Might have a punt on Coveney and a saver on Bruton / Noonan. I had to look up who was deputy leader of FG , James Reilly remember him.
Wouldn't be Vardakar either as he supported Bruton in the heave. Probably why he got the poisoned chalice of Health after O' Reilly couldn't deliver on anything he promised.
I have a feeling the biggest winner in this election will be Paddy Power.
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostSF out to 25.5 again if anyone is looking for a piece.
Think 25 is the absolute max I can see them gettingHis rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
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Originally posted by AdMMM View PostDavid Cullinane was 20/1 to top the poll in Waterford but is now 14/1. I still think there's a bit of value in that because FG have a massive fight on their hands to keep their second seat meaning they're working hard to manage their vote between their two candidates.
He'll have to poll well to beat John Halligan but I think that will be much closer than the bookies think.
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Originally posted by Fonkey View PostJoe Carey 3/1 in Clare constituency. Was as big as 5s earlier today. Sitting FG TD. Was 1/10 when market opened and was 1/6 a few days ago. The massive drift is because of a poll of 600 people the local paper ran in this weeks edition that showed him fairing poorly.
Massive over-reaction to a small size poll. The general consensus was that he could come under pressure to keep his seat but think he may be worth a punt.
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostYes but FF were a toxic brand that even the most faithful of supporters were almost embarrassed to admit they voted for. Every passing day heaped more bad news on them with no possibility of being able to put forward any redeeming quality to the electorate.
Labour could count themselves a little unfortunate to lose 2/3 of their seats considering the raft of good economic data being released. The pact with FG might be enough to get them over the line in a few tight spots.
I'll take over 11.5 for a € 100Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostI'll take the unders, if your happy with that? (Bearing in mind the post just posted above!)
Well done Hitch send on the deets.
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostSpectacularly wrong on this one but at least did see the writing on the wall in time to have a saver on the under 10.5.
Well done Hitch send on the deets.
Send on your b/acc details when you get a chance. Well played and cheers for the action.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Postthat would be all of us!
latest guesstimate is:His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
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