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Irish General Election betting thread
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Originally posted by Fonkey View PostJoe Carey 3/1 in Clare constituency. Was as big as 5s earlier today. Sitting FG TD. Was 1/10 when market opened and was 1/6 a few days ago. The massive drift is because of a poll of 600 people the local paper ran in this weeks edition that showed him fairing poorly.
Massive over-reaction to a small size poll. The general consensus was that he could come under pressure to keep his seat but think he may be worth a punt.Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostThose local polls are worst that useless. (according to Eoin O'Malley from DCU who seems on the ball on these things). Sounds like a great bet therefore.
Don't know if O'Malleys complaint with them is sample size, or quality of randomness, or maybe how little they tell about national picture etc...
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1,000 is enough (well almost).
If you are willing to accept a 3% error rate, then at 95% confidence 1,066 is the sample you need for a population of 1 million. The sample you need under the same conditions for a population of 10 million only increases by 1 person to 1,067. This is not taking into account different demographic groups.
One problem is that Ireland's electoral register is way off:
A special investigation has revealed that Ireland's electoral register is massively overstated by almost half a million people.
It says that according to the last census 3,023,025 are entitled to vote. In the same sex marriage referendum 3,221,681 polling cards were issued. 200,000 more than are eligible. Now assuming that everyone who is entitled to vote does not register, but that it is at around 85% then that means that over 600,000 more polling cards were issued than there were people eligible to vote.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostAnd by the same statistical logic, 600 isn't enough for a representative sample of a constituency. I guess thats what O'Malley (son of Des, i think) was getting at.
Also on the Red C Fine Gael "bias", it appears that Red C provides their sample data according to those who express that are likely to vote - Fine Gael voters seem to be more likely to vote. Unlike Sinn Feiners for example.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostVery bizarre election so far....the prevailing emotion seems to be 'none of the above'. Somebody has to break out of their range in the last week, my guess is FG, as per the British GE.
I see Enda has been sent over to Brussels for a weekend retreat.
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Have FG said they won't go into government with FF? If that is the case, then given FF have said they won't do business with FG and both have said they won't (and can't) do business with SF, there really is no possible government that doesn't include about 20 independents surely?
I know politicians and what they say is never really trustworthy, but it really is a clusterfuck of a situation.
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Originally posted by 5starpool View PostHave FG said they won't go into government with FF? If that is the case, then given FF have said they won't do business with FG and both have said they won't (and can't) do business with SF, there really is no possible government that doesn't include about 20 independents surely?
I know politicians and what they say is never really trustworthy, but it really is a clusterfuck of a situation.
Independents are the ruination of the polity. They should fuck off to the County Councils where they belong."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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B&A poll which was due to be released in the ST this Sunday appears to have been leaked on their website (now gone) details are going around Twitter. From what I can gather polling took place on the 14th and 15th so both before and after the RTE debate.
SPOILERThe sport that unites Catholic, Protestant and dissenter has had its day of days. Pity anybody who can't enjoy it. Some day. Gerry Thornley 23/3/09
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Originally posted by Mickey Rosa View PostB&A poll which was due to be released in the ST this Sunday appears to have been leaked on their website (now gone) details are going around Twitter. From what I can gather polling took place on the 14th and 15th so both before and after the RTE debate.
SPOILER"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostCan only see the gap narrowing between FG and FF. A lot of the votes that left the FF party in 2011 seem to be returning.
I see Enda has been sent over to Brussels for a weekend retreat.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostWe do have a long and glorious history of "if at first you don't succeed....then vote again until you do." Could well happen with this GE. It's hard to see any stable government emerging.
Independents are the ruination of the polity. They should fuck off to the County Councils where they belong.
Most other Independents are motivated to run because of particular issues and don't focus on the bigger picture.
Of course then you have Lowry and the the Healy Rae family in Kerry who are the third type of Independent that run for a Dail seat.Last edited by angle_grinder; 19-02-16, 22:20.
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostAre you actually employed by FF to go onto sites and do this or is it a hobby?
I'm not trying to have a go. Just interested in your own thoughts.
And I know it's a betting thread so just to clarify my recommended bets so far are Fine Gael less than 60.5 seats and Pearse Doherty to win the most first preference votes.
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Originally posted by Mickey Rosa View PostB&A poll which was due to be released in the ST this Sunday appears to have been leaked on their website (now gone) details are going around Twitter. From what I can gather polling took place on the 14th and 15th so both before and after the RTE debate.
SPOILEROriginally posted by Mickey Rosa View PostIf that poll proves to be accurate, lol Labour.
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostI'm not employed by anyone as I haven't had a job in 5 years. Feel free to challenge me on any of my post's if you disagree though.
I'm not trying to have a go. Just interested in your own thoughts.
And I know it's a betting thread so just to clarify my recommended bets so far are Fine Gael less than 60.5 seats and Pearse Doherty to win the most first preference votes.
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Originally posted by 5starpool View PostThe current line on FG seats (with PP anyhow/0 is 51.5 seats, so less than 60.5 is probably fairly safe. Did you get a bet in when that was the line? Free money if so it seems.
Line was 60.5 last week in January and I think they only have 63 forward. Even with no clue or interest in politics I got in on the undersGo big or go homeless.
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostNo, he's wrong, if we are taking 1,000 as being okay for the national population sample, then the 2011 Clare constituency had a turnout of 82,745. So 3% error rate, at 95% confidence, then a sample of only 439 is needed.
Also on the Red C Fine Gael "bias", it appears that Red C provides their sample data according to those who express that are likely to vote - Fine Gael voters seem to be more likely to vote. Unlike Sinn Feiners for example.
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Originally posted by shano1888 View PostThey have 80 odd forward but under 60.5 is looking pretty safe alright.
One thing to bear in mind is that some of the FG candidates that got elected last time were very much of the bottom drawer in terms of quality. They literally didn't have enough proper candidates to go around (much like FF in the old days). Even with a happy electorate some of those would struggle as they could barely tie their own shoelaces. Not that this is solely a FG phenomenon. :
With this in mind, plus the reduction in seats, 60 would have been a good result. I'm going to take a fresh look at the markets today.Last edited by Raoul Duke III; 20-02-16, 09:00."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post70 I think after the defections. They won 76 and lost the 3 Renua TDs, Matthews, Naughton and I think another.
One thing to bear in mind is that some of the FG candidates that got elected last time were very much of the bottom drawer in terms of quality. They literally didn't have enough proper candidates to go around (much like FF in the old days). Even with a happy electorate some of those would struggle as they could barely tie their own shoelaces. Not that this is solely a FG phenomenon. :
With this in mind, plus the reduction in seats, 60 would have been a good result. I'm going to take a fresh look at the markets today.
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Originally posted by shano1888 View PostI think doug was talking about the number of candidates running. Either way I think they will do very well to push 60 at this stage."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!
$ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $
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Originally posted by Lord Sir Christmas View Posthttp://www.irishtimes.com/news/polit...ario-1.2541644
Having watched the video, I thought maybe drink was on board.
However they sound the same on the radio clip. So they always sound locked/a bit slow, especially Denny (as Michael calls him).
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostSBP/Red C poll
FG 30% (+2)
FF 18% (-)
SF 16% (-4)
Lab 8% (-)
Ind/Others 28% (+2)
As such, the changes here since the last Red C poll are:
FG 30% (+4)
FF 18% (-1)
SF 16% (-1)
Labour 8% (-1)
In that context, it means the FG jump is the only one outside the margin of error."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by Lplated View PostCould you explain/reveal the formula for this please? Not doubting what you say, just haven't managed to figure out the math.
But you can just fie up an online calculator such as this:
Creative Research Systems offers a free sample size calculator online. Learn more about our sample size calculator, and request a free quote on our survey systems and software for your business.
The formula used in that one is here:
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostJust pumped SF under 25.5. Tide moving against them last few days this provides some confirmation.
Is the polling system for the National Elections the same as the Local Elections? All the polls were way off in the 2014 Local Elections.
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostYeah they are only going one way. Would they be not be better with Pearse Doherty as leader?
Is the polling system for the National Elections the same as the Local Elections? All the polls were way off in the 2014 Local Elections."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by Lord Sir Christmas View Posthttp://www.irishtimes.com/news/polit...ario-1.2541644
Having watched the video, I thought maybe drink was on board.
However they sound the same on the radio clip. So they always sound locked/a bit slow, especially Denny (as Michael calls him).
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostThis is Adam's last election imo, and he was never going to go before 2016.
And if he was staying around for 2016 then why not stay on to commemorate the end of the War of Independence in 2021 which surely had more of an impact than the Easter Rising.
And 2021 would also be the end of the next Government's 5 year cycle!!
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostAdams their biggest liability.
Now is the time for him to step aside (and he will imo), but I would probably disagree on the extent to which he has held on beyond the optimal retirement point."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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I wont be voting again unless they switch around the polling clerks to random roads. Every single year its the same 2 clerks for my road and one of them is so life tilting ive stayed away from the last few elections/referendums.
Why on earth cant they not toggle around to random roads instead of the same clerks doing the same roads?.
I send in spotters to see if he is still there and every time he is and i dont vote.
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on the macro level, Red C polls:
Feb 6th:
FG 31
FF 17
SF 17
Lab 10
Feb 20th:
FG 30
FF 18
SF 16
Lab 8
Which makes macro change over the election cycle thus far:
FG -1%
FF +1%
SF -1%
Lab -2%
I think that serves to put things in context. It would be very easy to assign the election pantomime more impact than it may be having."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostFG\FF coalition now odds on at 8/11
seems like quite some time back we were all laughing at the very notion at 4/1Last edited by angle_grinder; 20-02-16, 21:53.
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostWould that be quite high? Some were around 20 earlier in the election
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostPoll was carried out Weds /Thurs 1065 individuals at 100 locations nationwide. It says on Indo website that " uniquely" they only polled people who were certain or likely to vote.
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostYeah but if they agree on a voting pact then technically it would be FG Minority which is 13/2"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by angle_grinder View PostYeah but if they agree on a voting pact then technically it would be FG Minority which is 13/2
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Poston the macro level, Red C polls:
Feb 6th:
FG 31
FF 17
SF 17
Lab 10
Feb 20th:
FG 30
FF 18
SF 16
Lab 8
Which makes macro change over the election cycle thus far:
FG -1%
FF +1%
SF -1%
Lab -2%
I think that serves to put things in context. It would be very easy to assign the election pantomime more impact than it may be having.
Behaviour and Attitudes
Feb 6th
FG 28
FF 20
SF 17
Lab 8
Feb 20th
FG 30
FF 22
SF 15
Lab 4
Change
FG +2%
FF +2%
SF -2%
Lab -4%
Millward Brown
Feb 6th
FG 27
FF 22
SF 21
Lab 6
Feb 20th
FG 27
FF 23
SF 19
Lab 6
Change
FG NC%
FF +1%
SF -2%
Lab NC%
Poll of Polls Change
FG +0.33%
FF +1.33%
SF -1.66%
Lab -2%
The only conclusions I'd draw really is that the election seems to be changing little. It's in the media's interest to try and sell narratives, and micro polling at short intervals helps create an illusion of dramatic shifts that don't really stack up imo.Last edited by LuckyLloyd; 20-02-16, 23:25."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by NiceandcoolTrig View PostI still expect a late swing towards FG ala the Conservatives in England. Wouldn't be surprised for them to finish up on 60+.
In Ireland people who vote FG have no problem saying so in a poll whereas there is still a bit of stigma attached to FF so people who intend to vote FF might not want to do so publicly.
By that rationale if there is a late swing it might actually to be to FF
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