They have Maura Hopkins(2/9) as the favourite for the third seat but Fine Gael are detested after they went back on their pre-election guarantee and closed the A&E in Roscommon Hospital.
Enda Naughten was whipped from the party for voting against them and he is certain to top the poll with Michael Fitzmaurice, Ming's successor, pretty certain to finish just behind him.
Fianna Fail's Eugene Murphy(9/4) is a long time County Councillor who works on local radio and would have a bit of popularity about him. I don't see Claire Kerrane(4/1) garnering enough transfers to have a chance. Shane Curran(6/1) is a former county football star and very well known and popular all over the county. I think there is a real good chance he can snag that last seat for Fianna Fail ahead of Hopkins and Murphy. I think it's likely that one of the FF'ers get that last seat given that there will be very little tranfers to Hopkins as the party is despised and I think that when the lower FF'er gets eliminated that the one left standing will be head of Hopkins.
If I were Fianna Fáil I wouldn't be sticking up posters with Michael Martin around Dublin.
His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
It is very hard to be confident of any bet on any market. I can't see Fine Gael winning 60 seats though.
Their campaign of propaganda has been running for five years now and is beginning to run out of steam. And now that Kenny will be forced to come out of hiding it will leave him and his party fully exposed. They should have ditched him for Varadakar a year ago.
I can still see them forming some kind of a shambles of a government which shouldn't last too long.
Does anyone know if Sporting Index or any spread betting company will create a market on the election??
Why is a FG/FF coalition the favourite and always has been, when both of them refuse the idea of it outright in the media?
Wouldn't be the first time that was the favourite iirc. It's a numbers thing, pure and simple. That fool Ivan Yeats was going on about it being the most probable in his Paddy Power blog this week.
Why is a FG/FF coalition the favourite and always has been, when both of them refuse the idea of it outright in the media?
The odds compilers and ( apart from the outlier Shano) anyone that has entered the predictions comp don't think that the rest can form a stable government. So it will either be a FG minority, a second election or despite what they say FF/FG will in the National interest get into bed together.
FAO Keane and Careca or anyone that knows more about this than me.
Tom Fleming has just pulled out of the election. That's him and Michael Gleeson gone from Kerry now. Two men with massive followings so be interesting to see where those votes go. Probably just go to MHR tbf
From a non punting POV I find the prospect of the current government not being returned truly bizarre. I don't see how the majority of the electorate could deem them to have failed. Really pisses me off. I have no political affiliation. I would be saying the same thing if a FF majority had just been in government.
Think I have found a reasonable bet in Naoise O'Muiri in Dublin Bay North. My own constituency and a brand new one.
3\1 shot and will give us a good run. He's fairly personable and would be well known around the Clontarf end of this big constituency. If(big if) FG manage their vote well he's got a great shout IMO.
I think the FF shenanigans with Averil Power and Sean Haughey will cost them. I don't see O'Riordan getting back in and two SF seats are unlikely. Judging by the looks of Tommy Brougham he might keel over on the doorsteps!
From a non punting POV I find the prospect of the current government not being returned truly bizarre. I don't see how the majority of the electorate could deem them to have failed. Really pisses me off. I have no political affiliation. I would be saying the same thing if a FF majority had just been in government.
'We want free stuff and we're fucking mad!'
It's like the crash never happened. You just know they would vote Bertie in if they got the chance.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
RTE news were interviewing people in Donegal. One woman reckoned that her biggest priority was stopping all abortion in Ireland as that would set things back on the right track again. Some people are so mental.
RTE news were interviewing people in Donegal. One woman reckoned that her biggest priority was stopping all abortion in Ireland as that would set things back on the right track again. Some people are so mental.
I had to rewind and watch it again, I was sure I must have heard it wrong.
RTE news were interviewing people in Donegal. One woman reckoned that her biggest priority was stopping all abortion in Ireland as that would set things back on the right track again. Some people are so mental.
She might just be right you know.
Did you ever think about that?
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
It's like the crash never happened. You just know they would vote Bertie in if they got the chance.
If Kenny had 10% of Berties likeability FG would probably get an overall majority. He really is despised by a huge amount of people. The strategists should revert to the 2011 policy of locking him in a cupboard for 3 weeks. Just roll out Paschal the puppy dog everytime there's a problem, he sold Aer lingus and hardly anyone noticed.
Think I have found a reasonable bet in Naoise O'Muiri in Dublin Bay North. My own constituency and a brand new one.
3\1 shot and will give us a good run. He's fairly personable and would be well known around the Clontarf end of this big constituency. If(big if) FG manage their vote well he's got a great shout IMO.
I think the FF shenanigans with Averil Power and Sean Haughey will cost them. I don't see O'Riordan getting back in and two SF seats are unlikely. Judging by the looks of Tommy Brougham he might keel over on the doorsteps!
Finian McGrath, 1 Sinn Fein, Richard Bruton, 1 Fianna Fáil and One of Tommy B, Naoise and Aodhan. Tommy has a large support around Donaghmede and is out in his Caravan every Saturday. Might not be enough to carry him through though. The fact that Aodhan is a junior minister, is on tele a lot and will appeal to younger voters think gets him through. Your best hope I think is Averil splits the FF vote and they all get washed away . Also funking for a large 1st pref vote for Bruton which may not be a much of lock as it would be under the old constituency. Tough one to call imo
His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
If Kenny had 10% of Berties likeability FG would probably get an overall majority. He really is despised by a huge amount of people. The strategists should revert to the 2011 policy of locking him in a cupboard for 3 weeks. Just roll out Paschal the puppy dog everytime there's a problem, he sold Aer lingus and hardly anyone noticed.
Anytime he is let loose he puts his foot in it.
Think it was in Athlone a man aged 50 odd challenged him verbally Kenny replied id say you could do with a bit of work.
Had fianna fail call round a canvasser tonight i asked how can anyone vote for you guys when Martin is still leader he said lots have said that i told him id never vote fianna fail and would tell my grandchildren not to.
Bertie was likeable?
What's Finna Fails bag anyhow?
When he was in office he used call round my estate at least once a year.
He was likeable in person to be honest like a lad you would meet in a pub if you were alone and chat to for an hour.
Could not see myself having a pint with kenny.
Does not mean he was not a crooked fucker.
Bertie was likeable?
What's Finna Fails bag anyhow?
Never got it myself but in the same way a lot of people in Tipp find Lowry likeable Bertie had that one of our own charisma that appealed to a lot of people ( before he started getting really lucky on the ponies).
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
Aodhan might not get a seat? Fck that's shocking. He's great.
I think he will get a seat. Go talk to RD3
His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
From a non punting POV I find the prospect of the current government not being returned truly bizarre. I don't see how the majority of the electorate could deem them to have failed. Really pisses me off. I have no political affiliation. I would be saying the same thing if a FF majority had just been in government.
I can quite easily see why people have thought Labour have failed or wouldn't want them in Government. Most Fine Gael voters who threw them a second/third preference last time around are probably pissed about crumbling that they did with the Unions and the missed opportunity to dramatically overhaul the public sector. I'd say most of the Labour voters are just pissed off they were seen to have been steam rolled in Government for the most part.
While Fine Gael haven't covered themselves in glory either.
Finian McGrath, 1 Sinn Fein, Richard Bruton, 1 Fianna Fáil and One of Tommy B, Naoise and Aodhan. Tommy has a large support around Donaghmede and is out in his Caravan every Saturday. Might not be enough to carry him through though. The fact that Aodhan is a junior minister, is on tele a lot and will appeal to younger voters think gets him through. Your best hope I think is Averil splits the FF vote and they all get washed away . Also funking for a large 1st pref vote for Bruton which may not be a much of lock as it would be under the old constituency. Tough one to call imo
Agree, tough constituency. I'd have Bruton, McGrath and 1x SF as a cert, the last 2 are close, I'd imagine there's one more left leaning seat there unless transfer #s are very low and he'll need to get in ahead of Haughey.
Surely Enda will throw a few " your friends in Greece" insults at Adams. On at 5/4.
FF now 34.5 and FG 56.5 , An hour of Enda on live telly should shore up the FG decline!
After a week of campaigning , Hitch must be feeling happiest.
Once people see Edna tried to laugh and joke his way round for 1.5 hours the slide might continue
Edna is not great in a debate, he's better been talked to as a one-one
Tv3 put a call out to suppliers of metal buckets, said they would need about 100 for the shite that's going to be talked about and promises been made
David Cullinane was 20/1 to top the poll in Waterford but is now 14/1. I still think there's a bit of value in that because FG have a massive fight on their hands to keep their second seat meaning they're working hard to manage their vote between their two candidates.
He'll have to poll well to beat John Halligan but I think that will be much closer than the bookies think.
From a non punting POV I find the prospect of the current government not being returned truly bizarre. I don't see how the majority of the electorate could deem them to have failed. Really pisses me off. I have no political affiliation. I would be saying the same thing if a FF majority had just been in government.
This in my opinion. I reckon as the election approaches we will see a big swing towards the current government particularly with the 2 main opposition parties available.
Though I suppose it wouldn't be beyond possibility that ye would elect both - a fine double act to offer to prop up a Government that would make.
Not sure if they would both get in. Obviously Danny has seen a few people pull out of the running and decided he could snap up the spare votes. I don't see that happening. Anyone voting Tom Fleming will just go back to a Fianna Fail member as Tom was FF before going IND. Anyone voting Michael Gleeson SKIA will probably vote MHR.
That leaves Danny with an awful lot of work with a lot of North Kerry very loyal to their politicians. Then you have people like myself who will give MHR number 1 and Danny number 2. Depends how many do that I suppose
Not sure if they would both get in. Obviously Danny has seen a few people pull out of the running and decided he could snap up the spare votes. I don't see that happening. Anyone voting Tom Fleming will just go back to a Fianna Fail member as Tom was FF before going IND. Anyone voting Michael Gleeson SKIA will probably vote MHR.
That leaves Danny with an awful lot of work with a lot of North Kerry very loyal to their politicians. Then you have people like myself who will give MHR number 1 and Danny number 2. Depends how many do that I suppose
Well I was mocking, but actually, if look at figures from last election, possible that neither will get elected.
MHR only got 6,6k first preferences, though he was transfer friendly. But three of the North Kerry candidates polled higher than that (12k, 9k, 9k), and one other N.Kerry cand and two other south kerry candidates were all above 6k.
If same number of voters this time, quota will go up to somewhere over 14,500 - either one of the HR's would need to be ferociously transfer friendly to get there.
This in my opinion. I reckon as the election approaches we will see a big swing towards the current government particularly with the 2 main opposition parties available.
As much as I would like to see it , I wonder will it. All the momentum is with FF. You have the prospect of Enda flaffing and Joan screeching on a series of live debates. I would expect Adams to perform poorly and Martin could come out of them looking very good if they don't land too many " look at the mess FF left us" blows on him.
They are also competing with each other for the last seat in a lot of constituencies so a small increase in support over the last two weeks might not make much of a difference to the overall seat numbers. At this point a FF/FG coalition or FG minority look like the only possible options.
Well I was mocking, but actually, if look at figures from last election, possible that neither will get elected.
MHR only got 6,6k first preferences, though he was transfer friendly. But three of the North Kerry candidates polled higher than that (12k, 9k, 9k), and one other N.Kerry cand and two other south kerry candidates were all above 6k.
If same number of voters this time, quota will go up to somewhere over 14,500 - either one of the HR's would need to be ferociously transfer friendly to get there.
So the smart money would be to back a North Kerry candidate?
As an aside. There's a "count afresh" on down here this week. Dan Kiely disputed the figures from the 2014 local election after losing by 5 votes. He is down 3 votes on his 2014 total after count 3. He'll look some Muppet if he loses by more than 5 now.
So the smart money would be to back a North Kerry candidate?
As an aside. There's a "count afresh" on down here this week. Dan Kiely disputed the figures from the 2014 local election after losing by 5 votes. He is down 3 votes on his 2014 total after count 3. He'll look some Muppet if he loses by more than 5 now.
What if he wins?
'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
As an aside. There's a "count afresh" on down here this week. Dan Kiely disputed the figures from the 2014 local election after losing by 5 votes. He is down 3 votes on his 2014 total after count 3. He'll look some Muppet if he loses by more than 5 now.
Short answer, to 'if he wins' is decisions made at local level are either by County Manager alone (and through him, his staff), thus not challengeable regardless of outcome of this case, or they are functions reserved to the elected members.
Any decision of the elected members where the outcome could have differed by taking off the vote of the initially declared candidate (think he was a FF guy), and giving the 'most perverse' vote to what should have been Kiely, are open to challenge.
Not sure how many actual outcomes this would fit, and of those, many of the 'injured parties' might prefer not to take their chances with the Courts.
It is virgin territory, but many's a brief fee was earned off the back of a fruitful virgin.
We process personal data about users of our site, through the use of cookies and other technologies, to deliver our services, personalize advertising, and to analyze site activity. We may share certain information about our users with our advertising and analytics partners. For additional details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
By clicking "I AGREE" below, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our personal data processing and cookie practices as described therein. You also acknowledge that this forum may be hosted outside your country and you consent to the collection, storage, and processing of your data in the country where this forum is hosted.
Comment