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Irish General Election betting thread
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostFF don't really have any good choices. Defining themselves in opposition to FG doesn't work for them. Defining themselves as potential partners for FG doesn't work either!
Having sons of those who were involved in that whole fiasco up for election is also keeping the banking crisis fresh in the memory for a lot of people.
They used to be very good at pulling the wool over people's eyes but they've completely lost their way now.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostIts eminently sensible. Have a giveaway budget (which they've earned the right to do, in fairness to them); and then sell that dream rather than the cold reality of 'giveaway' meaning an extra fifty in your monthly paycheck come January."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostThe FF line is 31.5
I've taken the unders in bets with Hitch and Sitch. Now looking for another angle.
Anyone want to give me odds on FF under 22.5?
I think they might get a small bit stronger as they have a strong following who just ran away from them the last time due to the state they left things in,
I still think a FG minority will be the winner
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Originally posted by balfejohn View PostDo you really think that FF will fall that much over the next 4 weeks."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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There should be some correlation between the 'overall seats per party' line and the betting in constituencies, i.e. if a party line is 16 seats then we can expect there should be ~16 candidates who are in the Top X in the betting in X seat constituencies.
Actual situation.
So clearly theres a flaw somewhere.
Either
a) the flaw is in the party lines meaning the overs on FG is a small bet, overs FF is a huge bet, whilst the Unders on Others is a monster bet.
b) the constituencies betting is off in about 10 seats.
If we think its A then pile on.
If we think its B (sadly more likely imo) then its more difficult. But there must be roughly 5 FF and 3 FG who are trading at the wrong price in relation to an 'Other'.
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It doesn't completely explain the discrepancy but there are only 157 seats up for grabs. Quite sneaky of PP to have Dun Laoghire down as a 4 seater when Sean Barrett is automatically returned.
Edit: Just noticed that Ceann Comharile is included with others.Last edited by horatio1; 31-01-16, 10:15.
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The betting for the last seat is tight / ridiculous in some constituencies:
Tipperary 5 seater , betting for last seat goes 4/9, 8/15, 8/11.
Galway east , 4/9 ,8/15, 5/4
Cork Sth Central, 1/4, 4/7
Where as if you can figure out who will win the last seat in Clare or Dub Sth West its 2/1 and 11/8 the field respectively.
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostThe betting for the last seat is tight / ridiculous in some constituencies:
Tipperary 5 seater , betting for last seat goes 4/9, 8/15, 8/11.
Galway east , 4/9 ,8/15, 5/4
Cork Sth Central, 1/4, 4/7
Where as if you can figure out who will win the last seat in Clare or Dub Sth West its 2/1 and 11/8 the field respectively.
Anyone going to give me odds on FF under 22.5?"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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I think the most enticing bet is the overs on Labour. I know things are bad for them but I think come election time they can put a case up that they have improved the country while in government and promise the sun, moon and stars and they'll get more votes than the polls are showing and they'll also get huge tranfers from FG I think.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostYeah, they are taking the piss. Which is why I set up this thread.
Anyone going to give me odds on FF under 22.5?
Originally posted by Iago View PostI'm on FG >47.5 seats @5/6 for a chunk of change and SF <34.5 @4/5 for a smaller chunk.
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostThere should be some correlation between the 'overall seats per party' line and the betting in constituencies, i.e. if a party line is 16 seats then we can expect there should be ~16 candidates who are in the Top X in the betting in X seat constituencies.
Actual situation.
So clearly theres a flaw somewhere.
Either
a) the flaw is in the party lines meaning the overs on FG is a small bet, overs FF is a huge bet, whilst the Unders on Others is a monster bet.
b) the constituencies betting is off in about 10 seats.
If we think its A then pile on.
If we think its B (sadly more likely imo) then its more difficult. But there must be roughly 5 FF and 3 FG who are trading at the wrong price in relation to an 'Other'.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post18/1 for FG/Lab/SocDems. (or was when I bet anyway). Given that FG/FF would rather do harikiri than go into gov together and let SF be the main opposition, its surely a matter of whether the SocDem seats (three guaranteed more or less) are needed or not."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by shano1888 View Post@ RD, if you want to punt FF colapse you could do worse than bet on SF position to be 2nd after election @5/1. Essentially a match bet between FF and SF. Don't see it myself and I doubt they would take much off you though.
Basically all it needs is FF-4 off their line ans SF +4.
Given that there is a certain overlap in the potential voter base, I think you've identified a great bet there. You'll be able to get on whatever you like in the shops too. Online, no chance."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by mdoug View PostGot some 'tips' from someone who tells me they know about this kind of stuff but I'm posting here before betting.
2 tips: 1) over 10.5 labour seats at evens and 2) lorraine higgins in galway east at 5/1
Just want a simple good bet/bad bet answer if possible
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Originally posted by 5starpool View PostAre there odds for 2 general elections this year? Reasonably likely scenario surely with either a hung Dail and no agreement or else an unlikely unstable one that collapses within 6 months.
They have also started opening markets on who will top the poll in certain constituencies.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostFirst bet won of the election campaign - monies shipped to Denny
Date/Time Selections Bet type Stake Return Status
2016-02-03 19:38 Leitrim Traveller @ 8.00
Each Way single
2 Bets * 50 EUR 100 EUR 520 EUR"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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2016 Election Bets
having researched a bit on the above, here are a couple of interesting bets
FF to get between 34-37 seats bet on over 30.5 seats
SF to get between 20-23 seats bet on under 23.5 seats
FG to form minority goverment 9/2
Singles and multiple bets
M McDonogh-Clare 9/4
P Buckley-Cork East 6/4
T Broughon-Dublin Bay North 11/10
A White-Dublin Rathdown 13/8
S Holland-Dublin South West 11/8
F o Loughlin-Kildare South 13/8
K Moran-Long/Westmeath 1/1
Hoprfully make a few bob on some of these
Thoughts on the above
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Originally posted by balfejohn View Posthaving researched a bit on the above, here are a couple of interesting bets
FF to get between 34-37 seats bet on over 30.5 seats
SF to get between 20-23 seats bet on under 23.5 seats
FG to form minority goverment 9/2
Singles and multiple bets
M McDonogh-Clare 9/4
P Buckley-Cork East 6/4
T Broughon-Dublin Bay North 11/10
A White-Dublin Rathdown 13/8
S Holland-Dublin South West 11/8
F o Loughlin-Kildare South 13/8
K Moran-Long/Westmeath 1/1
Hoprfully make a few bob on some of these
Thoughts on the above
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Originally posted by balfejohn View Posthaving researched a bit on the above, here are a couple of interesting bets
FF to get between 34-37 seats bet on over 30.5 seats
SF to get between 20-23 seats bet on under 23.5 seats
FG to form minority goverment 9/2
Singles and multiple bets
M McDonogh-Clare 9/4
P Buckley-Cork East 6/4
T Broughon-Dublin Bay North 11/10
A White-Dublin Rathdown 13/8
S Holland-Dublin South West 11/8
F o Loughlin-Kildare South 13/8
K Moran-Long/Westmeath 1/1
Hoprfully make a few bob on some of these
Thoughts on the above
Don't think there are 2 SF seats in DSW so wouldn't bet on Holland but a lot of pundits including Yates on Newstalk and Irish Times are predicting she will.
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Originally posted by balfejohn View Posthaving researched a bit on the above, here are a couple of interesting bets
FF to get between 34-37 seats bet on over 30.5 seats
SF to get between 20-23 seats bet on under 23.5 seats
FG to form minority goverment 9/2
Singles and multiple bets
M McDonogh-Clare 9/4
P Buckley-Cork East 6/4
T Broughon-Dublin Bay North 11/10
A White-Dublin Rathdown 13/8
S Holland-Dublin South West 11/8
F o Loughlin-Kildare South 13/8
K Moran-Long/Westmeath 1/1
Hoprfully make a few bob on some of these
Thoughts on the above
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Originally posted by BigDeal View PostMoran will poll well in Athlone but I think he will struggle to pick up anything in the rest of the constituency, no FF runner in Athlone should help him, think McFadden will just pip him but he has a decent chance.
Don't think there are 2 SF seats in DSW so wouldn't bet on Holland but a lot of pundits including Yates on Newstalk and Irish Times are predicting she will.
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Anyone want to do a sweep?
Correctly predict no of seats for:
FG
FF
LAB
SF
RENUA
SD
AAAPBP
OTHERS
thank post and if we get enough interest, I'll set it up. Suggest entry fees too.plz, I am OK with it being nominal or a bit more substantive."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Are you going to organise the 'predict every seat in every constituency' thing again? It was a bit mental but fun as well.
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostAre you going to organise the 'predict every seat in every constituency' thing again? It was a bit mental but fun as well."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostAnyone want to do a sweep?
Correctly predict no of seats for:
FG
FF
LAB
SF
RENUA
SD
AAAPBP
OTHERS
thank post and if we get enough interest, I'll set it up. Suggest entry fees too.plz, I am OK with it being nominal or a bit more substantive.
In for €20 - €50.
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostDefinitely in I was thinking of posting it myself, something along the lines of everyone starting with 100 pts and you are deducted 1 pt for every seat you are away from each groups total? Maybe a graduated bonus system for getting one exactly right.
In for €20 - €50."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostSounds like a plan. Thanks for volunteering!Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostHow about instead:
Pick 10 candidates who are evens or higher odds [I'll screen capture the odds from PP]. You then get points for whether or how close they are to being elected. So e.g. scoring might look like:
10 points [elected as TD]
5 points [first outside of elected TDs]
2 points [second outside of elected TDs]
Maybe those scores need to be tweaked a bit.
All selections due in by X time this Sunday. €50 a pop or so, or whatever works best.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostThere needs though to be a reward for breaking from the pack. E.g. we know the best estimates are probably the PaddyPower estimates. So what is the incentive with making big guesses outside of this range?
and neither will I on my current form"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by shano1888 View Post@ RD, if you want to punt FF colapse you could do worse than bet on SF position to be 2nd after election @5/1. Essentially a match bet between FF and SF. Don't see it myself and I doubt they would take much off you though."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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