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X-Factor Betting
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If Luke/Hannah make bottom 2, then it will either go to deadlock or else Luke wins 3-1 and then it's down to public vote and he will get the nod. If Hannah goes bottom 2 again, then it's her 3rd time bottom 2 so unless it's against Sam C, she has to go.
Wait to hear this week's song choices first, but it's The Great British Songbook.
After backing him all along, i've just (basically) backed Nicholas not make the Top 3 because i think 8/1 is a ridiculous price. (Well i backed Louis to lose all his acts first which means that Tamera, Sam, Rough Copy make top 3). I think the show needs Tamera to make top 3, and Sam is looking unstoppable so that leaves Nicholas v Rough Copy imo. The straight match up is 11/10 Rough Copy, but i think Louis to lose all acts first is pretty much the same bet @ 8/1
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostI'd have a long-term issue with Sam Bailey. Is a reasonably ugly older woman who can sing about as well as other very good singers ever going to sell many albums. Tamera can. She's lined up to be the next Leona Lewis - global stardom espec with the added bonus of absolute hotness. She would mint it in the US whereas Sam Bailey wouldn't get a look-in. There is the element of dislikeability, but that's for the show's PR people to manage. She's never going if she's bottom two.
We're never sure what rules the producers are going to make up as they are going along as they seem to change it to suit themselves, but last year with 7 left they all sang 2 songs and there was bottom 3, with the lowest going out, and then the next 2 lowest going against the judges. The following week for the first time ever, the judges continued with their vote and voted off Mary Byrne to give us a final of 4.
I think the only thing set in stone, is that the producers will try and rig it to see who they want in the final, and in my personal opinion, they'll want Tamera there for sure, Rough Copy a close 2nd and then the rest can come or go
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Leona Lewis was really liked though, she never had that cocky demeanor that Tamera has, was more vunerable and female voters could relate to her and was faaar better too. Alexandra Burke was similar, she became a twat with fame but was liked during the show. You're not going to win this without populatity, they've given it to absolute no hopers in terms of future career like that Joe loser a few years ago.
Trends can be useful but there's never been an over as talented as Sam B imo, Mary Burke was good but nothing that special so imo it's been more for the lack of talent than anything over the years why the overs have struggled.
Actually think Nicholas is the value in the outright now, he's been average enough for a few weeks but I'd blame the themes that are way beyond his years, difficult to sing something you've only learned in a week with any passion. He'll surely get the chance to sing more modern stuff in the coming weeks. Massive catchment area of voters in Scotland and is very popular anyway. Think himself and Sam will be the final 2.Profit before people.
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Is this something yo do because
1. The girlfriend/wife loves it and it is good way to spend time together and you enjoy the betting market.
2. You see general value in the markets on a regular basis.
3. You are a closet homosexual and you are using betting as a further tool to hide behind the coats while enjoying the show?
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Originally posted by Semibluff View PostHannah Barrett – Satisfaction
Luke Friend – Your Song
Nicholas McDonald – Someone Like You
Rough Copy – Viva La Vida
Sam Bailey – Something
Sam Callahan – Faith
Tamera Foster – Diamonds Are Forever
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostHad £45 in book profits on the overall win market, so popped it all on to Nicholas, on the grounds that he is highly likely to be top two and therefore the 5.3 is unlikely to stand as we approach endgame. Didn't think about it too much though.
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Song choices for this week. Bookies won't quite update their prices yet so might be able to sneak something. This could be a really good week for Hannah if she gets a late spot, and might not be a great week for Luke or Nicholas tbh. Hannah to avoid bottom 2 is 2/1 and Luke to be bottom 2 is 5/4 atm. Won't be that way tomorrow i'd imagine
Hannah Barrett – Hallelujah
Luke Friend – What Makes You Beautiful
Nicholas McDonald – The Climb
Rough Copy – Don’t Let Go
Sam Bailey – Bleeding Love
Tamera Foster – Impossible
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostSong choices for this week. Bookies won't quite update their prices yet so might be able to sneak something. This could be a really good week for Hannah if she gets a late spot, and might not be a great week for Luke or Nicholas tbh. Hannah to avoid bottom 2 is 2/1 and Luke to be bottom 2 is 5/4 atm. Won't be that way tomorrow i'd imagine
Hannah Barrett – Hallelujah
Luke Friend – What Makes You Beautiful
Nicholas McDonald – The Climb
Rough Copy – Don’t Let Go
Sam Bailey – Bleeding Love
Tamera Foster – Impossible
Not proud of knowing this but they've given Luke a makeover this week, don't think the producers want him gone yet, couple that with the really teensy song they've given him I think they're trying to make a real push for young girl vote. Saying that the 5/4 isn't too bad, as it's hard to see Sam or Nic bottom 2, rough copy also seem to be popular, so it's probably a toss up between Hannah, Tamera and Luke for bottom 2.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostWhat a shit theme- covers of awful winners songs in the past(some of which were also covers), happy enough that Sam B binked the Leona Lewis tune though.
Not proud of knowing this but they've given Luke a makeover this week, don't think the producers want him gone yet, couple that with the really teensy song they've given him I think they're trying to make a real push for young girl vote. Saying that the 5/4 isn't too bad, as it's hard to see Sam or Nic bottom 2, rough copy also seem to be popular, so it's probably a toss up between Hannah, Tamera and Luke for bottom 2.
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Ive backed hannah to go
I think if she gets bottom 2 vs anyone but luke she's a cert
she might be saved vs luke - but will prob lose if it goes to deadlick vs him
Often when a person is bottom two, their fan base and neutrals try doubly hard to save them, in the same breath - someone who was just saved has more chance of dropping in the following week
Also, with the makeover of Luke, and the young girl votes being shared between Nicholas and Sams best buddy Luke, youd imagine he'll be safe.
id much rather back 4/6 hannah to go than 4/9 her to be bottom 2
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It's a strange one. Tamera deserves to be gone...... but has more X Factor then all the contestants put together (maybe a little unfair to RC). Hannahs one dimensional screaming is the least 'sellable' of all the remaining acts (tbf that saleability will consist of charts, East End shows and Butlins Holiday camps). Tamera is, supposedly, becoming more diva every day.... and if you noticed when all the contestants came out on stage tonight with arms around each other..... no one went near Tamera!
Think Hannah will be bottom 2. The second spot is interesting. Luke warm Luke went with a 1D song, and on that basis alone, might be safe from bottom 2. The surprise could be RC. I think they are one of the best talents on the show, but the dynamic this week might have them in a spot of bother. The good news for them, I think, is that if they are up against Hannah or Luke, they should be voted through to next week.
The Judges always talk about the potential of contestants when voting comes to the fore. Tamera's brain dead efforts at remembering words would not be tolerated by the judges from any other singer... even Sam B, but this girl has pop star written all over her and I think she will get though whatever happens.
Would love to get a bet on Tamera bottom 2...... and then to go through to next week.
Hannah should go........ 100%D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)
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Haven't watched it yet because i was out pokering but sounds like i got a couple of things right. Tamera/RC bottom 2 now 3/1 but were 7/1 when i tipped them. Will be there or there abouts. Hard to predict it Hannah will get enough votes to avoid bottom 2.
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Originally posted by westlife View PostIt's a strange one. Tamera deserves to be gone...... but has more X Factor then all the contestants put together (maybe a little unfair to RC).
She is 20/1 on SpreadEx, and if you open an account, they'll give you double the odds on your 6th bet
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostYou can get a possible 40/1 on Tamera this morning.
She is 20/1 on SpreadEx, and if you open an account, they'll give you double the odds on your 6th bet
AND SAT NAV HAS BEEN OVERINDULGING ON THE VODKA SHOTS!!D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)
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Think Tamara actually has a better chance of surviving bottom two tonight because she fucked up. Like when she was smashing it and cocky she found herself bottom two a few weeks back, completely unjustified on talent but she was very unpopular. Now she's shown a more vulnerable side it's probably easier for voters to endear themselves to her, and realise just how young she is (younger than Nicolas which is pretty lol to look at them). Big overnight move for her to be bottom two tonight, I'm a layer at current odds on prices anyway.
Also lol Luke makeover- you can blame the betfair forum on thatProfit before people.
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Originally posted by westlife View PostDon't think she can win it anymore Tony..... The final decision is the publics (I think) and she is not endearing herself.
AND SAT NAV HAS BEEN OVERINDULGING ON THE VODKA SHOTS!!
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isnt it annoying though, the whole popular kid thing
Tamera isnt the "nicest" girl. But she's 16, still developing and growing as child. She has the best chance of everyone to make it big (still think this!! Get her in a studio where she cant forget her lyrics and with Will.I.Am supporting her!)
To think she wont do well because the large voting group, dont like her personality and are jealous of her is a little sickening to think thats what its came down to!
She will sell more records long term than Sam B i think. Sam B will win this year and be a hit immediately, until she sizzles off the boil
But Tamera could be around for years and make the production company/Cowell a fortune. For this to happen she HAS to be in the top 3 I think. So following on from this, im sure she'll make it
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Their songs have been picked by the public already;
Luke Friend:
Own choice – I Will Wait
The people's choice - Skinny Love
Nicholas McDonald:
Own choice – Greatest Day
The people's choice - Just The Way You Are
Rough Copy:
Own choice – Every Little Step / She’s Got That Vibe
The people's choice - I Believe I Can Fly
Sam Bailey:
Own choice – How Will I Know?
The people's choice - Clown
Tamera Foster:
Own choice– We Found Love
The people's choice - The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face
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I think Skinny Love might just save Luke from bottom 2.
I also think Tamera gets saved regardless (if bottom 2). Cowell wants superstars and cant make her 1 if not in the final 3. She will be a raving success
Luke vs rough copy, prob luke. But Ruby saves luke, Mrs O likes her "dark horse" and the other two 100% plunge for RC. Luke wins on public vote?
Rc or Luke against ANY of the others in the bottom two, and they go.
11/2 RC to go seems massive.
Dont think a solo R Kelly song will suit a 3 man band "I believe I can fly"
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Originally posted by Semibluff View PostI think Skinny Love might just save Luke from bottom 2.
I also think Tamera gets saved regardless (if bottom 2). Cowell wants superstars and cant make her 1 if not in the final 3. She will be a raving success
Luke vs rough copy, prob luke. But Ruby saves luke, Mrs O likes her "dark horse" and the other two 100% plunge for RC. Luke wins on public vote?
Rc or Luke against ANY of the others in the bottom two, and they go.
11/2 RC to go seems massive.
Dont think a solo R Kelly song will suit a 3 man band "I believe I can fly"
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostRough Copy as short as 5/4 to go home atm
see its RC vs Tamera betting wise. Luke had a cracking night as guessed and is safe.
then nicholas has shortened to 3-4s to go. Cant see him being sent home.
Hopefully the RC idiot and his schoolbag will be sent home
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Originally posted by Semibluff View Postyeh got a lil bigger than 6s on bf
see its RC vs Tamera betting wise. Luke had a cracking night as guessed and is safe.
then nicholas has shortened to 3-4s to go. Cant see him being sent home.
Hopefully the RC idiot and his schoolbag will be sent home
Somebody has had a word in Tamaras ear and told her to try and come across as "softer".
All Lukes songs are starting to sound the same!
Nicolas could be a surprise bottom 2!!!D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)
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Originally posted by westlife View PostHave just seen last nights episode ..... Is it just me or was Nicholas horrendous? (off key for most of the falsetto .....
Somebody has had a word in Tamaras ear and told her to try and come across as "softer".
All Lukes songs are starting to sound the same!
Nicolas could be a surprise bottom 2!!!
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its 7/4 your pick RC and Tamera to go
Nic 7/2
all betfair
I hope im not wrong, but i still think the value is in Rough Copy
Vs Tamera, RC biggest (neutral) fan Nicole, abandons them. and they prob lose 3-1 in votes
Vs Nicholas, they prob lose 3-1 in votes. Even if its 2-2 he still comes thruogh in public vote
The "sway" vote, which depends on their actual performances, is a lot lower than people allow for, I think
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Originally posted by Semibluff View Postits 7/4 your pick RC and Tamera to go
Nic 7/2
all betfair
I hope im not wrong, but i still think the value is in Rough Copy
Vs Tamera, RC biggest (neutral) fan Nicole, abandons them. and they prob lose 3-1 in votes
Vs Nicholas, they prob lose 3-1 in votes. Even if its 2-2 he still comes thruogh in public vote
The "sway" vote, which depends on their actual performances, is a lot lower than people allow for, I thinkD15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)
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Originally posted by westlife View PostI actually think the "sing off" has zero to do with what the judges will decide... With the bottom 2, they have made up their minds 100% BEFORE they sing... Have backed Nic for bottom 2D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)
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Garry Barlow is a fucking disgrace....... Saying all weekend how Luke is the person to sell records, how he thinks he is fantastic and the best bla bla bla and then votes for deadlock...... Joke! Thanks for the heart failure! It's a soap!!D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)
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Originally posted by westlife View PostGarry Barlow is a fucking disgrace....... Saying all weekend how Luke is the person to sell records, how he thinks he is fantastic and the best bla bla bla and then votes for deadlock...... Joke! Thanks for the heart failure! It's a soap!!Her sky-ness
© 5starpool
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Originally posted by westlife View PostGarry Barlow is a fucking disgrace....... Saying all weekend how Luke is the person to sell records, how he thinks he is fantastic and the best bla bla bla and then votes for deadlock...... Joke! Thanks for the heart failure! It's a soap!!
Id say the judges know who's lost public vote before they go there
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Think the value now lies in the without market. Luke at 2/1 with a savor on RC at 5/1.... McD looks like a guy who reached his voting potential a few weeks ago...... Bad performance last week and is bringing nothing extra to the table!D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)
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