Will Hill Supreme Novices Each Way offer

[Opr]

Sorry to start a new thread but just wanted to draw attention to this race to get a few thoughts now Melodic Rendezvous is out. Even though they're worst priced on quite a few the place book is still ridiculously good value paying 1/4 the first five. You have two rags in the race so essentially getting first five on a ten horse race.

Looking at it with very little knowledge surely Jezki given the ground should be smashed into at 9/2 e/w? Currently getting place terms for the first five on him (2.15) which is the same odds as the place terms on the machine for only the first three after comm.

I had a small e/w on Cheltenian @ 33's after the offer came out.

Any thoughts on it?

Opr

[HiCloy]

Great offer alright. You'll do better backing something at a bigger price, remember the bigger the price, the more likely they are to come 4th/5th than 2nd/3rd

[Opr]

But what price is Jezki to finish top 5? Discounting the two donkeys lets say you're talking about a finish in the top half of a 10 runner field. Given he's the second favourite then what price do you think he would get laid on BF for five places? 1/3 sounds about right to me but you're getting 11/10 on the place with WH. I see what you're saying about the bigger priced maybe being better to take advantage of the two extra places seeing as it's the most likely finishing positions but this is such a competitive race that I doubt it matters much.

Opr

[HiCloy]

He's implied 29% to come 2nd or third, so a little below that for 4th or 5th for ~70% total. But Cheltenian is still a much better bet. He's implied 3% to win and 11% to come 2nd or 3rd, so probably looking at ~28% to come in the top 5. And you get 6.25/1 on that!

[Opr]

there is a scale of placing expectation based on win price of the horse - do some googling and you might find it - perhaps flatstats would be a good place to start. I am not arsed looking for it but I know I used it in some models in work before.

Cheers, I found a place calculator based on something like the above. Figures for the whole race are below for anyone interested.



Opr

[Opr]

Just on the place odds thing Noel. From the little reading I did in trying to find that tool above. The one above is obviously quite a blunt tool but it does fine in a market like this where our edge is so big. It seems though that a number of people have attempted more sophisticated methods with varying degrees of success. I know from listening to the Channing podcast he seems to be using another quite blunt method in comparing exchange place odds with the antiquated bookie fractions of the win odds system to find ricks.

Surely someone who can build a proper sophisticated place modeling tool would hoover money out of the markets?

Opr

[nicnicnic]

Adam Maidment @AdMaidment
By my reckoning William Hill's place book for the Supreme works out at 65.87% - with BOG as well it is a truly staggering offer.

[mcnugget]

An awful pity the Arkle or QM don't have the dead 8 to double up with the Supreme in Hills, what a bet that would be. They are keeping things tight on the other races eg not enhancing plaes on JLT.

Just spent an hour and a half trying to set up a new Hills a/c on the mobile to avail of Supreme offer. Going to double up Chartreux with River Maigue and Jezki after GAB's news.

[Opr]

I hope it's alright to cross post this considering I'm also kinda plugging the site and he's giving his thoughts all weeks folks. Here's Channing's thoughts on the supreme.

http://www.bettingemporium.com/

Cheltenham 2013 Preview Supreme Novices Hurdle - "Insane"

A lot of commentators will tell you that the real story of the 1.30pm at Cheltenham (The William Hill Supreme Novices Hurdle) is all about the favourite - My Tent or Yours. On the one hand this horse dotted up in a classy Newbury Handicap rated 139 and it's now rated 162. It has a rating that means it would win this race most years and it would be a real challenger in the Champion Hurdle.

The arguments against are that this is a better than average Supreme, that the horse has done most of it's work on flat tracks, that we haven't seen it battle up the hill, that lots of short-priced horses have been beaten in this race and also that we don't know how much of a stayer it is and this race could be a slog.

I am approaching the Festival as a gambler so obviously the real story is the sponsors going mental.

Hills didn't want one of the other firms stealing their thunder in their race and Skybet were going each-way 1,2,3,4 on a race which 1,2,3 would barely guarantee a profitable place book. Fearing an ambush by Ladbrokes the brains trust at Hills went for 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 which they are holding to the off, (apparently). The race has twelve runners and two of them are 1000/1.

In order to attempt to make a profit Hills have cut a lot of prices and their win book is currently at 123%. The place book, even on those stingy win odds, is running at 314%. To be theoretically profitable that number has to get to 500%.

That means that it doesn't really matter what I tip. If you have an each-way bet on every horse in the race with Hills right now you will make a profit, if you vary the stakes according to the prices.

I will try and help narrow it down though...

Let's ignore backing the favourite each-way. It wouldn't be the worst bet you could have, but there are so many good bets out there this week, so I won't be suggesting lots of short prices. Let's also ignore the two real outsiders who are both 1000/1 on the machine.

We are left with 9 horses. I shan't back Pique Sous or Dodging Bullets, both of whom have been reported as preferring better ground than we'll get today. I shall also leave out River Maigue. There has been a suggestion that this may be a late non-runner, but I can't fancy it too much whatever. Just not good enough for me. Un Atout has been winning really easily in bad races and the form could be anything. I tend to prefer a bit more of a solid look when betting each-way. I don't like things that could easily tail-off or win half the track - The two parts of an each-way bet are clearly a related contingency and I prefer getting a good run on both halves of my bet.

We are left with five horses and I really wouldn't put you off backing any of them. I will suggest my stronger ones though.

Cheltenian won the bumper a couple of years ago and then came back after a massive lay-off to run a great race at Doncaster recently. Obviously could bounce and may well not be good enough but it's a big price and it can easily be in the five.

Puffin Billy was 4/5 to beat Melodic Rendevous at Exeter last time and after getting beaten and having a hard race it was reported to be lame. The price looks good when you think Melodic Rendevous was closer to 7/1 when withdrawn yesterday, but coming in from an interrupted preparation and things not going totally smoothly, is not ideal.

Jezki is trained by Jessica Harrington and the stable are having a quiet time. It hasn't been seen since December, but it has the form in the book having won two Grade 1s and it beat Champagne Fever in one of them. JP McManus paid a lot of money for this horse and it's been backed from 7/1 into 9/2 in recent days. The horse is 6/5 a place on Betfair 1,2,3 so taking 9/8 a place first five is a lovely bet. I have taken a little each-way.

Champagne Fever was rumoured to be going to the Neptune and the bookies, (who don't seem to understand how to operate in non-runner no bet markets), allowed it to hit 20/1 for this race. It was on my radar at around 12/1 and I watched as it shortened every day without having a bet. It is a tough and game front-runner with form in the book who will like the ground. As soon as my original selection was pulled out I took some 9/1 and watched it go to 7/1, 6/1 and 5/1. The horse is a solid 8.0 on the machine so I'm less keen on taking 5/1 but the place terms still make it a great bet.

Cause of Causes is a winner of The Ladbroke and it was placed in the Greatwood Hurdle. It looks a big price to me back in novice company on ground it will love. Has been cut from 40/1 to 25/1 with Hills while other bookies go 33/1. If you say that is around 8/1 1,2,3 with those books against 7/1 on the machine, how great would that bet be at 1,2,3,4,5.

I suggest 1pt each-way Jezki and take the 9/2 with Will Hill at 1/4 1,2,3,4,5.

Let's have 2pts each-way Champagne Fever at sp with Will Hill at 1/4 1,2,3,4,5

I wouldn't normally advise sp betting but with Hills trimming all the prices and the sp market likely to be slightly closer to 118% than the 123% I wouldn't put you off.

I suggest 2pts each-way Cause of Causes at sp with Will Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4,5

Some people may find it strange that I seem to be having so many bets in the one race in all my races so far. I cannot stress enough that it is rare that the punters are being handed the advantage by the books and with these offers we must punish. I haven't tipped anything that I have not had a substantial bet on and I'm very happy backing several in a race if the odds are in our favour.

The two Tuesday races I have already tipped on I am happy with and I won't be having anymore bets on those. I will post my summary of the other four races in the morning starting with the Mares Race at around 11am.

Opr

[smoothcall]

Got a few quid on before they stopped me, is there any Will Hill left in town?

[Opr]

No, Boylesports bought out the remaining stores in the republic about a year back.

Opr

[Opr]

Well done Mr Channing.

Opr