LOI Season 2013 Betting

[bohsman]

On the handicap bets I like Drogheda +22 points at 8/1 and will prob take Bohs +33 for a bit of interest, both fairly settled squads and Drogs would have won the HC with ease last season.

Week 1 betting, I like Cork at 15/8 and Drogs at 15/4 looks like good value.

[eamonhonda]

if imake as much money from first goalscorer markets as i did last year i will be a happy man

[applehunter]

From a pure betting point of view Drogheda look the best value. Traders taking the view that last season was a once off. Paul O'Conor and David Cassidy look good signings to me.

20/1 in Hills, and Stan James. 1/5 odds 1,2,3.

That's 4/1 to finish in the top 3.

Hoping Cork can get in the mix for Europe as well. Morrissey, Horgan and Daryl Kavanagh are the names to look out for.

[Yiruma]

For a newbie punter like me I'm putting a small amount on tote betting. Because for me its the most basic. Can anyone suggest a good betting format and how if its done thanks in advance.

[Keane]

For a newbie punter like me I'm putting a small amount on tote betting. Because for me its the most basic. Can anyone suggest a good betting format and how if its done thanks in advance.

Use handicaps to have most of your bets around even money, always shop around for the best prices and it's hard to go broke.

[Yiruma]

Use handicaps to have most of your bets around even money, always shop around for the best prices and it's hard to go broke.

Thanks mate! Regarding to your reply I saw a website that compiling all the best prices for some good selections. Also what can you say about match betting or sports arbitrage? Is it good at long term betting?

[Keane]

Thanks mate! Regarding to your reply I saw a website that compiling all the best prices for some good selections. Also what can you say about match betting or sports arbitrage? Is it good at long term betting?

Don't arb. For an arb opportunity to exist at least one side of the bet must be at a price that's a decent bit too big, just figure out which side it is and bet on it.

[Yiruma]

Don't arb. For an arb opportunity to exist at least one side of the bet must be at a price that's a decent bit too big, just figure out which side it is and bet on it.

Okay then, I guess that's the real deal picking which side will win. Anyways thank you very much for your time.

[Aya14]

I don't really like getting involved too early in the season but like Waterford at home to Finn harps tonight at 1.9 on Betfair. Waterford will really want to make RSG a tough place to come this year as home form is key to getting out of Div1 this season.


On Limerick Stuart Taylor is getting a decent side together all his signings have been local lads or lads he's worked with before in Scotland no big name signings at all is disappointing I suppose. But happy he kept Foley,Gamble and Gaffney at the club. Behan is no loss he doesn't seem to give a fuck anymore. Limerick had a couple of decent showings against SPL sides and Scottish Div 1 teams. I think overall we'll be alright without being spectacular.

Against Cork on Sunday though the game time is disappointing Thomond Park is like a ghost town if there's less than 10k at a munster match and with United and Chelsea starting less than an hour before I can see less than a thousand turning up. Cork have competitive football under their belt already this season and will be plenty match fit and sharp. Limerick's first game at TP and back in Premier could have he lads fired up ESP the local lads Tracy Purcell Judge imo. So its not a game to get involved with for me

[applehunter]

Teams involved in Setanta Cup action have a definite edge going into 1st couple of weeks.

Cork, Shamrock Rovers and to a lesser degree Drogheda would be the only teams I would feel comfortable about punting due to their match sharpness.

Will wait a few weeks to see how things are looking to get a better feel for how teams are shaping up.

[bohsman]

Corks my biggest bet for the weekend but am also on Harps, Longford, Bohs and Athlone.

[The Situation]

Thread needs more Semibluff.

[Aya14]

Think we really should have beaten cork
cork will be the happier with a point imo.
Enjoyed the game anyway, freezing here though.

My mate text me saying he'd love to beat Pat Dolan to death with a stick. I take it he's on punditry duty on rte. Lol

[smoothcall]

Anywhere you can get match stats? like shots etc

[Aya14]

Anywhere you can get match stats? like shots etc

I've found these very hard to come by. Trustworthy ones for shots on/off target especially. www.extratime.ie is the best website for LOI football bit doesn't include every stat. I suppose you could go through the live match report and count back but that is ludicrous imo.

Also their own website is here www.airtricityleague.ie but is feckin chronic although it's got better. At times I think the LOI really don't care about our national league. Delaney never seems to mention it or give a lot of attention to it when asked questions about it.

[bohsman]

Limerick at 1.9 and Cork at 2.1 look great value.

[applehunter]

Agree re: Limerick, not Cork

[Semibluff]

Hey Sorry havnt been around as much, will try to check in a lil more often

I try and post on twitter the irish bets either "donadoneee"

was all over limerick in the last game, and have it on good word that UCD are missing two CBs and CMs for their game

Would make it 4/6 limerick (at a safe number)

fill the boots (and pray to avoid the 2 sending offs and 4 penalties)

[Semibluff]

would of liked the early shams price, but taking a big neg hc, away to well organised bohs team in a derby, isnt normally the best idea.

Cork can be got at 2.3 or bigger, -.25 seems to good to turn down on them

I expect sligo to get backed in, so will be interested to see bigger price on dundalk at the off.

[Aya14]

I'd make Cork a lay at anything under 2.5 Donal.
I don't think Bray's performance away to Sligo was as bad as it looks at 3-0. Also if Cork set up the same way they did against limerick he is just gonna make his midfield sit deep and cut off ball supply out wide to bray. Which is a waste because Duggan is a serious box to box midfielder. On top of that Dan Murray is missing and Neal Horgan is an injury doubt.

As for Limerick Axel Boss and Brown are both out suspended but we get back Shaun Kelly and Pat Purcell so that should be no problem at the back. Jeffrey Judge looks like he'll be fit for the game but Taylor may not risk him til the weekend and play Shane Tracy in midfield instead of left full. U.C.D missing D.O'Connor is massive IMO. They are very light on good defenders and midfielders as it is. Limerick should be winning this.

Derry are the most interesting one of the night to me. Drogheda did draw 1-1 up there in the Setanta cup but Derry were the better side that night. Also Gary O'Neill looks a big loss to me when Drogs have to travel.

Backing Derry(2.2) and Limerick(currently 1.98 but they will touch evens).
Laying Cork(2.3)


I wanted to back Waterford too but can't find a price anywhere .

[Aya14]

Limerick into 1.89 atm seems there's dribbles of cash around for them.

Also Waterford are a best priced 4/6 for an EA sports cup tie with Cobh tonight, looks a gimme to me.

[Semibluff]

Hey, yeh i fancy the limerick price to hold. The big punters out there will be wary of them, and the team news on UCD wont affect them too much (it will on the pitch, but not the market) as many dont no the UCD team at all.
Really really like the Lim bet here.

Cork vs Bray is a tough one alright. Bray are prob still the 2nd worse team, although Shels are really giving them a run for their money.
Byrne is a doubt - and they have a day less rest. I got on cork in the HC when they were 2.35 match odds, and im very happy with the bet. But I wouldnt be too mad on them odds against. Youve a nice price to oppose now if you want
To add- heard bray played v well against sligo (i was on bray) and the last few goals flattered, bray had 10 men due to injury also.

Derry have a light squad, injury and suspensions means theyre even lighter. Griff (who is a great talent) being played out wide is being lost here, bit like quigley wide for bohs few years ago. UCD were that bad in the last game, not Derry that good. They scored from 80% of their shots i think.

Drogh have played them twice already and matched up well. Prendergast a loss, esp in set pieces (where derry match up best) but Derry at evens Id be opposing.

Shels meant to be very light, so would like a Pats drift before team news. Unliekly though.

Yeh Im still unsure on Cobh - you could be very right, but a lot happier watching this one than punting

[Aya14]

Lay matched on Cork at 2.3. I've also done a small double Pats and Glentoran up north.
Lims and Derry as singles and a small double.

Can't see Pat's drifting really.

I'm skipping away from work early to get across to Thomond Park for the Limerick match, here's hoping its a solid win and performance.

[Semibluff]

Re Bray Cork,

Problem solved, game cancelled due to waterlogged pitch

[Aya14]

Re Bray Cork,

Problem solved, game cancelled due to waterlogged pitch

Lol, non runner it's like we all win

[Semibluff]

Lay matched on Cork at 2.3. I've also done a small double Pats and Glentoran up north.
Lims and Derry as singles and a small double.

Can't see Pat's drifting really.

I'm skipping away from work early to get across to Thomond Park for the Limerick match, here's hoping its a solid win and performance.

yeh GL Us. Be interested to hear your take on it afterwards if possible!

[Aya14]

yeh GL Us. Be interested to hear your take on it afterwards if possible!

Ya, no problem I love nothing more than running my mouth

[applehunter]

Limerick look a good price considering the form going into the game.

On them.

Will watch with hope for a Cork win but wouldn't part with money on the game.

[applehunter]

Cork City match is OFF.

Waterlogged pitch.

[connie147]

Hey Sorry havnt been around as much, will try to check in a lil more often

I try and post on twitter the irish bets either "donadoneee"

was all over limerick in the last game, and have it on good word that UCD are missing two CBs and CMs for their game

Would make it 4/6 limerick (at a safe number)

fill the boots (and pray to avoid the 2 sending offs and 4 penalties)

Good call on Limerick so far. 3-0 up after 33 mins. Blindly followed you!!

[Aya14]

Derry left me down for a nice touch

Limerick are hard to judge on that performance. Basically because ICD were very very poor.
Limerick did retain the ball well. They'll find it hard to score against better opposition when they try to play from the back the whole time. Rainsford did nothing bar his goals. First one a deflection and second a tap in. Curran looks like a really hard worker who held it up extremely well. Folan looks a good recruit at centre half. Williams isn't the paciest full back ever but a decent defender. O'Leary will be a huge loss he suffered a nasty looking injury just on half time. Bradley came on for him I wasn't impressed again he looked lethargic and sloppy. All in all a good result. Foot totally off the pedal second half, good job UCD were too bad to take advantage.

[Semibluff]

what do you remember about the UCD team?

Cheers for the run tru anyways. Curran is a good player, only there til the summer tho i think. Hopefully we all won a lil anyways.

Ended up opposing derry when they went slightly odds on just at the off. Seems Sava (keeper) played a stormer for them. They conceded from set piece as was feared.

Sligo cruised it in dundalk. Familiarity among their team is certainly worth a lot. Playing with a lot of confidence too. Interesting tie next week vs Limerick

[EnzoScifo]

what do you remember about the UCD team?

Cheers for the run tru anyways. Curran is a good player, only there til the summer tho i think. Hopefully we all won a lil anyways.

Ended up opposing derry when they went slightly odds on just at the off. Seems Sava (keeper) played a stormer for them. They conceded from set piece as was feared.

Sligo cruised it in dundalk. Familiarity among their team is certainly worth a lot. Playing with a lot of confidence too. Interesting tie next week vs Limerick

UCD looked very poor. 1st half was all one way, could easily have been 5 up at half time. 2nd half was the same for about 20 mins with Gamble hitting the bar and O Callaghan missing from 2 yards. After UCD scored with their 1st attack on 70 mins, they were actually the better team for the last 20 and had a couple of chances to make it interesting.
Very young side but light and constantly being knocked off the ball.

Thomond pitch is shocking for footy. Looks great from up high but its full of sand and bumps. Can only get worse if we get a dry spell.

For Limerick, Folan looks class in the middle of the back 4. Williams and Nzuzi solid at the full back slots and all 3 play good football. Agree with aya on the rest. Its pass pass pass and Taylor has brought in players who are comfortable on the ball. When we scored our 3rd goal he went nuts at Brian O Callaghan who was the only one who decided to head back towards his center half position rather than join in the celebrations O Callaghan is not comfortable on the ball and has no speed so cant understand why Purcell (club captain and center half who has been a fixture for years but suspended for 1st game) is warming the bench.

[Guest]

Kickin ass and takin names

[bohsman]

UCD to lose again looks the bet of the week, Dundalk at 2.2 looks big with UCD still missing players due to injury.

[Semibluff]

UCD match to be postponed seems the bet of the week

If somehow, one of the worse pitches in the league actually gets the go ahead - do you really want to be on a team that you need to win, that have to dodge puddles and a gale force wind?

Any normal day Id agree with you. May still end up on it too, but would want to see some miraculous change in weather

[bohsman]

Had heard the weather was bad alright, just hard to imagine when I'm walking to work in 20C heat.

[Semibluff]

^^ tough life!!

Pitch just confirmed playable in UCD. Shocked with that. rainfall meant to drop slightly before tonight.

Hope price holds, wont be betting it till weather clears a bit

Surprise surprise, on limerick also

[Aya14]

^^ tough life!!

Pitch just confirmed playable in UCD. Shocked with that. rainfall meant to drop slightly before tonight.

Hope price holds, wont be betting it till weather clears a bit

Surprise surprise, on limerick also

Afaik UCD installed 30 peso French drains pre season so the water would drain down Belfield away from the bowl.

Left em all alone so far. If there's a drastic change in price in dunalk in the next two hours I'll leave it off. Otherwise I'll have small bet on Limerick +1 and Dundalk at anything over 2.2 would be unreal on a dry pitch.

In Div 1 I'm almost certainly laying Longford at around 2.6 and Wexford at about 2.3. Athlone and Waterford are backable prices at home but I'm not getting involved yet anyway.

[Aya14]

Also SB. There's a ticket for any time u like to come down to Thomond Park as promised

Well anything except Bruce Springsteen

[Semibluff]

your lucky im not a bruce fan! Throw in a couch and ill think about it, if we can get a big enough bet on!!

Not after timing as I posted on twitt, but against sligo, ath, ucd and waterf - all handicaps (dundalk only neg hc, and betr than current price)

[Aya14]

Ah there's always a spare couch here for a bit of Kip.


Ended up laying Wexford (Salthill just got the standard red card)
Also laid Longford.
Did a double Athlone and Waterford which looks doomed.

Dundalk on their own and a little bit on Dundalk-1 for the lols.

A small interest in Limerick, hopefully we take something from there because Sligo going 4 from 4 would be ominous for everyone else.

[bustamoves]

Is there still value in backing Dundalk guys in running (half-time now) and say laying Sligo. Missed getting on pre match, any suggestions welcome.

Dund (0-0) are trading at 2.16 on Bf and Sligo (1-1)can be layed at 1.86 fwiw

[Aya14]

Is there still value in backing Dundalk guys in running (half-time now) and say laying Sligo. Missed getting on pre match, any suggestions welcome.

Dund (0-0) are trading at 2.16 on Bf and Sligo (1-1)can be layed at 1.86 fwiw

I wouldn't put you off either. Limerick bench is stronger tonight than UCD game too. But Sligo are a very good side. I'd still fancy Limerick to take something from the game.
Dundalk are on top according to ExtraTime but there isn't much in it. The positive is the pitch is holding up well and UCD's 3-5-2 formation means they aren't at all comfortable.

[bohsman]

Drogheda at 1.8 for me today. I am currently of the opinion that Drogheda have been written off as one season wonders while I feel that Bray are being slightly over rated.

[Aya14]

Was all over Pats tonight. Until it entered my head that the pitch may still be a bit lumpy

So double Limerick +1 and Pats.

[eamonhonda]

4/1 bit big for dundalk?

[Aya14]

4/1 bit big for dundalk?

I wouldn't fancy Dundalk at all tbh. Oddly enough they are third in the league and have had both their wins away from home and I still wouldn't fancy them at all

The stats lie a little because those two wins were against Shels in an ill tempered game and UCD who they struggled to put away scoring twice in the last ten minutes.

Pats will also be very strong at home, they beat Drogheda 1-0 but held the ball for the majority of the game. PPL seem to rate drogs as a decent side so that result should be noted.

Bad pitch or not Pats play good possession football and you couldn't see Dundalk creating too many clear cut chances.
I think I read somewhere that Dundalk have only beaten Pats twice since 2008 if that is of any use at all.


To sum up I wouldn't fancy Dundalk at all.

[Aya14]

I should also say if you are backing Dundalk regardless then do so with Billy Hills they are 5/1 there.

[eamonhonda]

ya your points are valid. i thought after clawing back form 2-0 down to a draw they must have been decent a price was a bit big. but your probably right

[Semibluff]

PFAI twitter account posted a picture of the pats pitch pre match. looks like a carpet.

Twitter a must for LOI info i think.

[eamonhonda]

PFAI twitter account posted a picture of the pats pitch pre match. looks like a carpet.

Twitter a must for LOI info i think.

ya i just load up the #LOI feed when games are on for decent updates of all games

[Aya14]

I bow to semibluff and eamon. LOI continues to baffle me.

[Semibluff]

st pats have downgraded on like 4 players from last year.

Dundalk are a hot and cold team who have the ability to always score, but with a weak defence. Pats struggle to score (their goals per game lowest in the league last yr, due to a good defence also)

although pats certainly a better team, wouldnt be rushing to get on them as short as that vs many teams. Theyre much better receiving a handicap

[Aya14]

Don't get why over 2.5 is odds against there should be goals in that game imo

6/5 generally but you’ll get 2.3ish on betfair

[eamonhonda]

dundalk derry double for me.

also I know shams are gonna have start winning eventually but I cant help but like drogheda +1. probably will avoid it with it being in tallaght but am tempted.

[Aya14]

Spoke at length to Pat Purcell a while ago. Gave him a bit of a grilling

He says Limerick are approaching this as a win at all costs type game. .
They are planning on targeting the young centre half of Bohs

Backing Limerick at 10/11.
Hate backing my own team but can't pass up the chance in case he is right

[bohsman]

We are missing Heary and our best attacking option Lyons so wouldn't put you off. Assuming he means Lopez, he is a very good centre half in his third season in the league now.

[Aya14]

We are missing Heary and our best attacking option Lyons so wouldn't put you off. Assuming he means Lopez, he is a very good centre half in his third season in the league now.

Sounds like the name he said.
he said he will be a very good player iho with time, but he's suspect to bad decision making under pressure for now

[bohsman]

Seems reasonable. For me it's worth a bet at that price simply because Lyons is out and we will struggle to score.