just sticking a point e/w on Thomas Hobson in the 8.30 sandown @ 6/1,3rd first time out this year over distance,ran a little green then and has again buick.Gosden trained horses at times show a major improvement second time out and with support in the market this morning worth a point e/w.
not much from Thomas Hobson but Feile Bride gave a real go,almost stole the race but had to settle for 3rd,with the rule 4 a return of 2 points with the bank now at 247.95
stuck a point each way on Action Master @ 11/1,(6.50) & Truly Genius(8.20) @ 7/1,both in leopardstown.
Action Master finished well done the field,Truly Genius gave it a right go but found one too good so just a return of 2.40,might be throwing good money after bad here but going to give patrickswell @ 20/1 another go in the 3.25 navan,he's down to a very low mark of 58 mainly because recent form is utter shite,....but(worst gambling word ever) he has winning form over c&d and trainer marcus callaghan has some record,winning this race 3 times over the past 7 years(including with patrickswell in 2010,as well as a close up 4th another year),the drop to 5 furlongs looks ok,(horse has won 9 times in total,5 times over the distance)could be a sniff of a irish soul about him.still at 20s can't go wrong at that price i reckon,give him 2 points e/w at the odds with 4 places paid @ 1/4 the odds(just waiting for the nr to come to mess up the place betting)
one for the road and heading off the chester for this one,the draw bias over 6 furlongs is not as clear cut as over 5 furlongs,but when you factor in going,race entries etc then it seems to tell a different story with stall 2 coming in well ahead of the others with a 50% strike rate.over the last ten years,over 6 furlongs with 12-15 runners we have a sample size of 16 races,good to firm its down to 10,winner came from stall 2 no less than 5 times.in the 2.45 Roker Park runs from stall 2,has past form over c&d (all be it from stall 10)was rated as high as 89 at one time,off 79 this evening at odds of 8/1,fire a point e/w with 3 places paid 1/4 the odds in what is now a 15 runner field
no good with Roker Park with the winner coming from stall 1,still patrickswell finished in 3rd for a return of 12 points so a handy profit on the day with the bank now standing at 252.35
5.50 roscommon is where i'm off to today and going with Indian Icon @ 5/1,fran berrys only booking of the day(mixed card) and trained by dessie hughes who won this last year with o conor,has 3 going today with indian icon the only one on the flat.dropping back in trip with just the one run under the belt.@ 5/1 & 9 runners,looks a nice e/w bet,point e/w at the odds.
gave Golden Kite @ 12/1 a point e/w in the connacht national in roscommon 8.20,was a good second under todays jockey on his first run this year over hurdles,and has won both the munster & the midlands nationals in the past,rated 127 with 7 ex for this just could be value at the odds here with 4 places paid at 1/4 the odds,also see that alan magee makes a case for him,worth a wee punt at the odds.
Think you're just running good so far or do you think you've learned enough to make the difference in your first couple of attempts at this? What are you doing better now? I remember in your very first log you started increasing your stakes as your BR started to drop to try and gamble it back up.
Think you're just running good so far or do you think you've learned enough to make the difference in your first couple of attempts at this? What are you doing better now? I remember in your very first log you started increasing your stakes as your BR started to drop to try and gamble it back up.
ah ya running very well at the mo,the biggest difference by far is the research i'm putting in,could spend a few hours looking at some of the big hcps,its fine when you're getting a few results, its worth while,but when you're running like a dog it can be a right pain,it takes the same amount of work for the losing bets as the winning ones,just got to get used to it & and look at the bigger picture.reckon if i can keep the research to a high enough level hopefully the results will look after themselves in the long run,time will tell i suppose.doing a lot of work into draw bias,pace analysis etc which is kinda hard to get the head around but i'm sure i'll get the hang of it in time,also since i started this log i tend to go back and look at the bets i've done,see if i can spot something that i might have missed,have picked up a few little pointers by doing that which have paid their way since.starting to learn a lot about value which also helps.
mighty day yesterday with the 2 winners bringing the bank to 272.75,just the one for me this evening in roscommon 7.20 with Face Facts @ 7/1,barry geraghtys only bookng here (again mixed card)with prunella dobbs only runner,a good 5th on good to firm on his first run back in cork a few weeks ago(golden kite came 2nd) and all his wins have come on this evenings ground (g/g-y),3 of which were over this distance,could have a chance off 112 worth a point e/w with 4 places paid @ 1/4 the odds
not a whole pile happening yesterday with face facts finishing well down the field,fairyhouse today with the going at 9.30 am good/good to firm with 10 mm rain expected according to their site.david wachman has 3 going this evening,with hot bed in the 6.30 & montjeu minder in the 9.00 both of which have wayne lorden to help along,his 3rd,How Splendid @ 8/1 in the 7.00 which is a competitive looking handicap over 7 furlongs with no less than 16 (so far) runners,was very well backed 2 weeks ago in gowran(10s-11/2 in the ring)over distance when rated 68,on g/f with wayne lorden on board,finishing 3rd.is again off 68 this evening but (worst gambling word ever)has conor king with 7ex for his only ride at the meeting.at the very least looks well in on the weight and should turn the tables with King Oliver from this point of view,king/wachman combo not he worst,worth a point e/w with 4 places paid @ 1/4 the odds.
also sticking 2 points on the nose with Feile Bride @ 7/2 in the last,backed her last time where she ran a great race in tipp which was her first run,could and should come on a little for that.
nada for me yesterday with both horses drifting and both well beaten,leopardstown 8.30 is where i'm of to today and going with abbey vale @ 13/2,was a nose second first time out this year behind Seussical who has gone on to finish 3rd in a listed since,which is a fine boost to that form,gary carson makes a good case for him & tops the atr "predictor" chart.worth a point e/w at the odds.Strandfield Lady loves this place and has dropped to a handy mark,but usually shows some sort of improvement before winning and with recent form showing 0-9-7-8 going to leave her for today.
john mcConnell has Lindenhurst @ 5/1 running in the first in uttoxeter with mark bolger on board,second last time out behind Akdam but could go well here with the weight tables turned,danger looks like It's Only Business but still looks a good bet so going for a 1.5 point e/w.
bank 261.75
Last edited by amberleaf; 13-06-13, 09:17.
Reason: he's a she
Lindenhurst was a non runner so no bet there,abbey vale finished a fair bit back,still think he's better than that last night,worth another chance in time,sticking a point e/w on my old pal patrickswell in the 7.30 navan @ 12/1,ran well last time and is down to a very low mark,has c & d form from a few years ago.on the other side he's the old man of this bunch and the draw is no help,still with 4 places paid give him a spin at the odds.
use the refund for the nr yesterday so the bank stays the same at 261.75
almost, bit of life in the him yet,wonder if he'll head up north sometime soon,if he does could be wort another look.anyways second for a return of 4 points.had a good look at the scottish sprint cup which is off at 3.35 musselburgh tomorrow,Kingsgate Choice @ 12/1 ticks a lot of boxes (drawn 1 is a little concern) with 4 places paid at 1/4 the odds,worth a point e/w.
almost, bit of life in the him yet,wonder if he'll head up north sometime soon,if he does could be wort another look.anyways second for a return of 4 points.had a good look at the scottish sprint cup which is off at 3.35 musselburgh tomorrow,Kingsgate Choice @ 12/1 ticks a lot of boxes (drawn 1 is a little concern) with 4 places paid at 1/4 the odds,worth a point e/w.
bank 263.75
Good luck Amber have had Jamaican bolt on my log 3 times and he has been pulled out with ground too fast. Hoping some of the rain we had heads up that way for tomorrow but like yours drawn badly
shippity-ship with Kingsgate Choice popping up for a handy 17 points bringing the bank to 280.75,just a point win on the english raider Cubanita @ 9/2 in the noblesse stakes in mallow which is off at 4.20.
no joy with Cubanita,came with a good looking run but had to settle for a close up 3rd so the bank stands at 279.75.bit of the calm before the storm racing wise so no bet for me today.
well sharp is gone to 14s so sticking another point e/w.a point e/w on kingsgate native @ 16/1(1/4 the odds,3 places) in the 305 ascot & 3 point win @ 13/8 on three bells in the 6.50 sligo.
bank 268.75
Last edited by amberleaf; 18-06-13, 10:38.
Reason: forgot price
+1 amber. was in bookies for race & had docket wrote out for lieutenant miller when i remembered your tip (i presumed you did more homework than me ie walk into a bookies & look at a screen) so risked a mental breakdown by binnin my docket n doin a score e/w on your chioce. wp
stop lad, fran had me roaring like a bull,biggest bet since oc at chelts good to land that one,pity about the other 2 but its a work in progress and all that anyways a return of a 46 points bringing the bank to 314.75
+1 amber. was in bookies for race & had docket wrote out for lieutenant miller when i remembered your tip (i presumed you did more homework than me ie walk into a bookies & look at a screen) so risked a mental breakdown by binnin my docket n doin a score e/w on your chioce. wp
yup spent a nice bit of time going over it yesterday,well sharp kinda stuck out at me and when the lads on the podcast gave it the nod,reckoned it was the only way to play it.see most of the bookies are pay 5 places in the royal hunt cup tomorrow.....time to get aroooting
right the stall draw in the royal hunt cup is wrecking the head so going to have to leave that,in my wisdom got it down to 5 with Two For Two,Fury,Educate,Es Que Love & Captain Bertie.now out of those 5 ryan moore rode 2 last time out with fury & captain bertie,yet he goes for spas dancer which i think could be little hint,he's 1 from 1 with this trainer over the past year which was on spas dancer in sandown 3 weeks ago which was also he's first booking on the horse(2 wins from 10 bookings in total with eustace)spa dancer could do with being a year younger i suppose but does have some sort of decent form this season,so the story here is that spas dancer finishes 2nd for his new trainer then moore is booked and he wins over a mile and moore sticks with him for this,could run better then his 25/1 price,worth a point e/w also sticking in Two For Two for a point e/w @ 20/1,hopefully keep the good run going,paying 5 places @ 1/4 the odds gen.
nothing at all yesterday with the top of the draw coming out in top,had a good look at the 4.25 in ascot,pp are paying 6 places in this @ 1/4 the odds,gone with queensberry rules @ 25/1 & so beloved @ 16s for just a point e/w,both score well but draw might be a little concern.
just sticking a point e/w on lilys star(again) @ 12/1 in the 7.55 leopardstown,showed a little interest in sligo during the week,worth a punt upped in trip at the odds with the quick reappearance for rogers only runner here this evening.
not much happening with lilys star & so beloved,but queensberry rules ran a cracker finishing a close up 3rd for a return of 7.25 points.in the last in ascot which is a 7 furlong sprint with 29 runners going with Campanology @ 16/1 & enrol @ 6/1 for a point e/w with powers paying 6 places,also sticking a point e/w on hillstar @ 8/1 in the edward stakes.
nada from the last at ascot with both finishing well back,hillstar won so a return of 12 points bringing the bank to 318.going for a 1 point e/w on Gabriel's Lad @ 9/1 in the wokingham stakes,with 4 places paid at 1/4 the odds.also see my old pal patrickswell is out again tomorrow in first at down royal,no prices up yet but he has won this race the last three years and should be worth a look if the price is anywhere decent.
nada from the last at ascot with both finishing well back,hillstar won so a return of 12 points bringing the bank to 318.going for a 1 point e/w on Gabriel's Lad @ 9/1 in the wokingham stakes,with 4 places paid at 1/4 the odds.also see my old pal patrickswell is out again tomorrow in first at down royal,no prices up yet but he has won this race the last three years and should be worth a look if the price is anywhere decent.
bank 316
Not online all that much lately so just checking on this every now and again but you seem to be doing brilliantly so far, well done.
Not online all that much lately so just checking on this every now and again but you seem to be doing brilliantly so far, well done.
@amberleaf
though i'm not sports btting at this time (gave up/fail) but i too do check in here aswell and must second that.
tbh from your attempt/approach last year i didnt think you would ever make a success of this one. well done and keep it up....hope this aint the kiss of death for u..wp
cheers lads,june will be another winning month,hopefully keep the good run going.anyways no good with Gabriel's Lad,last race in ascot which is off soon and just stuck a point e/w on courtesy call @ 7/1.
no good with courtesy call with a poor enough run.just going for a outsider in the 4.45 gowran with sir loujay @ 18/1 4 places paid @ 1/4 the odds for a point e/w
down based trainer liam lennon has two going in hexham today with the first winning already,has maple valley gale in the 4 o clock @ 8/1, won a few ptps and went of fav in downpatrick lto(backed on the day)worth a pop with his horses in such good form.point e/w @ 8/1 with 1/4 the odds 3 places.
balmont belle was brought down in a nasty looking Incident,but both jockeys & horses were ok which is obviously good to hear,just stuck a 2 pointer on Point Piper @ 5/2 in the last in naas,he won last time out in a maiden over distance on g/f,rated 86 in his first hcp.(which could turn out to be low)and is entered at the curragh on friday evening,which are all positives.also a two point double with gold peregrine in the first at naas & Meeting Waters in the first at salisbury which works out @ 5.5/2
just the one winner with gold peregrine the only winner at massive odds of 4/7 so no return,sticking with patrickswell in the 7.00 tipperary this evening @ 11/2 for a 2 pointer e/w with 4 places paid
no joy from patrickswell yesterday in a race that was won by majestic timeline who was well backed from 11/1 early into 13/2,with murtagh booked.
anyways 2 bets for me today with saxo jack @ 9/2 in the 8.30 & king of the romans in the 7.00 @ 5/1 for a point e/w on both.
king of the romans finished 2nd & saxo jack finished 5th so just a return of 2 points,last few bets in june for me and taking 2 against the field in the 3.15 newcastle, address unknown which has drifted out to 25/1 & Ingleby Spirit @ 16/1 for a point e/w with 4 places paid @ 1/4 the odds,also sticking a point e/w on Libranno @ 9/1 in the 3.30 newmarket with 3 places paid @ 1/4 the odds with sj.
no return over the weekend so that brings june to a close,spent a total of 94 points with a return of 156.25 for a profit of 62.25 points,well sharp was by far the highlight for me in the ascot stakes,nice to work this race out & watch the horse drift by 5 points,jump in again and the horse wins(other than finishing tailed off),a few mistakes as well which need a little more work,but still very happy with progress for far.
kicking off the july log with a wee punt on how splendid @ 9/1 in the 6.20 gowran park,ran well at the track/distance on g/f the time before last and again has lordan on board(trainer has 2 in the race),worth a point e/w in what looks like a competitive race but with most of the horses at the top of the market moving up the ratings,worth a shot e/w with 4 places paid
how splendid finished 6th,had every chance, might need to drop a little in the ratings.sticking 2 point e/w on bronte @ 5/1 with pp in the 6.30 fairyhouse
bronte gave it a right go but had to settle for 2nd so a return of 4 points,Abbey Vale @ 13/2 in the 7.55 leopardstown which is a hcp for 3 year olds over 1m2f.had little chance last time out given the Position he found himself in,should be better from tonights draw and has colin keane with 5 ex to help,worth a 2 pointer e/w to me,also putting 2 points on definite row @ 13/8 in the last in perth,not the biggest price in the world,but think this horse should be slight odds on to win this.
two more seconds yesterday when definite row found one too good and abbey vale went down by a short head after the winner got first run,well worth keeping a eye on imo so a return of 4.6 bringing the bank to 288.6,just a 2 pointer e/w on skimming stone @ 9/2 in the 6.55 bellewstown.with 4 places paid @ 1/4 the odds with boyles
no joy yesterday,3.30 haydock Star Lahib @ 11/1 ticks a lot of boxes with 4 paid @ 1/4 the odds for a point e/w & Ubiquitous Mantle @ 11/4 for 2 points on the nose in the 5.20 bellewstown
Whatever It Takes ended up in 3rd after drifting out to 14s so a return of 4.5 bringing the bank to 306.35,just sticking a 2 pointer on golden kite @ 7/2 in the 7.55 roscommon,price not huge but running very well recently including winning the Connacht national last month and a 2nd in cork over hurdles before that,will love the going and distance.ticks a lot of boxes
no good yesterday with Truly Genius finishing 6th in a meeting where ap o'brien trained 5 winners from 7 races,going with 1 point trixie to day with Sir John Hawkins @ 9/4 in the July Stakes which is off at 2.10 newmarket,Danadana @ 9/2 in the Princess Of Wales stakes which is off at 2.40 newmarket & Strandfield Lady @ 9/2 in the 8.00 leopardstown,pays 164.31 points if they all happen to win
not much happening with yesterdays trixie,off to the sun on hols soon,so had a long look at the heritage handicap which is off at 2.55 in york tomorrow (sat),two horses took my eye with Niceofyoutotellme @ 9/1 which fits a lot of trends & is starting to attract a few quid,the other is Area Fifty One @ 16/1,again fits the bill but a huge negative is the top weight but on the plus side,richard fahey knows all about this race & the claimer is also a positive,i've 8 points profit this month so sticking 2 points e/w on both at the odds with 4 places paid @ 1/4 the odds,bringing the bank back to 292.35
not much happening with yesterdays trixie,off to the sun on hols soon,so had a long look at the heritage handicap which is off at 2.55 in york tomorrow (sat),two horses took my eye with Niceofyoutotellme @ 9/1 which fits a lot of trends & is starting to attract a few quid,the other is Area Fifty One @ 16/1,again fits the bill but a huge negative is the top weight but on the plus side,richard fahey knows all about this race & the claimer is also a positive,i've 8 points profit this month so sticking 2 points e/w on both at the odds with 4 places paid @ 1/4 the odds,bringing the bank back to 292.35
not much happening with the above last time with both well down the field,had a look at the rockingham handicap which is off at 4.45 at the curragh over 5 furlongs, as of now has 21 runners (2 withdrawn so far),the age profile is poor for 3 year olds in this over the years which for the purpose of this bet rules out scream blue murder,yulong baoju & in salutem with the pin landing on whozthecat @ 8s with 365 paying 5 places @ 1/4 the odds,the draw from 16 looks a little worry,but at least the only time it was ran on good to firm over the past 15 years the winner came from stall 13,whozthecat tends to run with the pace,has decent form at the track and the price is going fast which are all on the plus side with the biggest price winner over the past 16 years @ 14/1 and fancied horses scoring very well in the past,worth a point e/w for interest at the odds with the bank now standing at 290.35
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