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There can be some nice money to be made bonus whoring, been a while since i tried it, but it has paid for a few holidays for me
http://www.freebets4all.com/Low fee Euro/UK money transfer, 1st transfer free through my referral
https://transferwise.com/u/bfa0e
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Originally posted by mocata View PostThere can be some nice money to be made bonus whoring, been a while since i tried it, but it has paid for a few holidays for me
http://www.freebets4all.com/
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Guest
Well done on the recent run.
If you don't mind me asking. Why did your bankroll start on such a random number (309)?
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Originally posted by SirRickyHatton View PostWell done on the recent run.
If you don't mind me asking. Why did your bankroll start on such a random number (309)?
We'll probably just rejig the figures when we get to 400, double or quadruple what each unit is worth and come back to a more sensible 100/200.
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Originally posted by Keane View PostTwo potential overs bets in the EPL this weekend:
Bolton vs Everton
Chelsea vs Wolves
Those are just purely thrown up by the model, need to actually take a look at them as well obv.
I have been working on a rating system for the over/under market for the past year and it has been having great success this season. I have put a lot of work and trial and error into it. And the one thing is that the unders are a fucking horrible bet. The overs can be hugely profitable.
Bolton v Everton is just slightly above the overs requirement and at 1.85 would be priced exactly right imo and so not worth the bet.
The Chelsea v Wolves game is rated higher but at 1.5 I wouldn't touch it with stolen money especially after Chelsea having a midweek European game.
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Originally posted by CheckRaise View PostI have been working on a rating system for the over/under market for the past year and it has been having great success this season. I have put a lot of work and trial and error into it. And the one thing is that the unders are a fucking horrible bet. The overs can be hugely profitable.
Bolton v Everton is just slightly above the overs requirement and at 1.85 would be priced exactly right imo and so not worth the bet.
The Chelsea v Wolves game is rated higher but at 1.5 I wouldn't touch it with stolen money especially after Chelsea having a midweek European game.
As a general pricing rule with your model do you use something like if a match is just above the model's requirements then you need ~1.9 and work from there?
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Originally posted by Keane View PostYeah I hadn't checked the prices.
As a general pricing rule with your model do you use something like if a match is just above the model's requirements then you need ~1.9 and work from there?
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As an example for the unders the lowest rated game I have this week (most likely to result in under 2.5 goals) is Real Betis v Real Sociedad (1.73 with Stan James).
Looking at this game from every angle it seems like great value but there are too many things that can happen in a game that can change the dynamic when dealing with the unders bet.
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Originally posted by Keane View PostNo I mean what's the shortest price you'll back when a match only slightly clears your model's requirements for an overs game?
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We've added another 25 units to the bankroll to get money Janet Devlin on the best odds left (4/1 Stan James), gonna probably get a little bit loosey-goosey with certain bets to try and spin up a little bit, because neither of us would be particularly crushed by going busto and we do have some ambitions
So here's where we are now:
Initial Bank: 338 units
Current Bank: 370.5 units
At Risk: 25 units
Profit/Loss: 32.5 units
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We have Biarritz to top their group in the HCup(bet put down before it started) for 5 units @2/1
Going good so far got losing point to Ospreys which any team will find hard to beat at home. Great performance against Sarries to win at home minus Yashvilli.
Initial Bank: 343 units
Current Bank: 370.5 units
At Risk: 30 units
Profit/Loss: 27.5 units
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I watched the Spurs - Villa match last Monday. I cannot recall ever seeing a team put in less of an effort against Spurs. Genuinely. I have seen us outplay teams like we did versus Liverpool, but we strolled this one against a team that had no interest.
Modric and Parker would be standing in the middle of the pitch and not have to worry about any Villa player closing them down or trying to win the ball. It was incredible. And each kick out was a hopeless boot up to no-one. They didn't try a lick and it looked a little like a team who wanted their manager gone.
Villa have not had good results recently, don't do the business away from home, and Swansea are good at home. If Villa turn up the same way that they did last week then the prices for Swansea are pretty good at over evens.
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Rugby for today 26th
Putting 10 units on the Aussies to win @ 5/11 (Bwin)
More analysis here
SPOILER
Looking at the team sheets,Toeava for Babas is average footballer at best , Sam Tompkins apparently has never rucked in his life(being a rugby union convert for this game) and Habana is not exactly the player he was a couple of years ago. The Aussies match the back 3 for pace in Turner and Ioane with AA Cooper at FB and is a much better footballer than Toeava.
The Babas Centres of Fruean and Mortlock will be interesting as Fruean has got strength and pace and has played superbly for Canterbury in the ITM & Super , however he is uncapped at intl level, and will probably be an AB at some stage, this is a step up for him. In contrast Mortlock has bucket loads of Tests and should bolster the ship there. Aussies have Horne and Barnes ,who in particular, has a great passing ability and will be looking to get the ball wides to the flyers on the wings
OH have Cipriani v O Connor, O Connors first intl start at 10 should again be interesting, however Barnes can easily swap with him if any problems were to occur, however O Connor should step up nicely to this position and against an inconsistent Cipriani whos time in Super rugby has been a mixed bag to say the least.
For the pack the Babas will have the upper hand in scrum time with a strong front row , Matfield will trouble the aussie lineout. Should be a great battle in the backrow with Pocock Higganbotham vs Bergamasco Kaino. I expect Pocock to rule as he always does. Of course what will hurt the Babas pack is the fact that theyve never played with each other.
As for motivation the Aussies are always well up for this fixture having won the last two recent years, not to mention another battle of Deans vs Henry
Other bets today all at 10/11 2 units each
Gloucester v Leicester: Leicester +2 Im liking Tigers here , back to winning ways from the Hcup and will not stand for being second from bottom in the league, although there form in recent years at Kingsholm is bad, they are 5 from 5 and have 2 away wins under their belt in the last 2 weeks.
Edinburgh Vs Munster: Edinburgh +7 - this game is effectively Munster A vs Edinburgh HCup team, while munster come of the back of a great 2 weeks this is a different team completely with O'Dea getting his first start in Thomond. I expect an Edinburgh with dead eye Patterson to at least cover on this if not win outright.
Northampton V Saracens: Northhampton -4 Northhampton are in serious trouble in HCup now and will be focused on the prem. Return of Foden at FB is obv a huge plus. Lamb is also kicking very well .Sarries last weekend were not convincing against Biarritz.
Treviso vs Leinster , Leinster - 4 on 365 Young Leinster team with some of players on great form ie O Malley.
Added another 25 units to initial Bank
Initial Bank: 368 units
Current Bank: 390.5 units
At Risk: 48 units
Profit/Loss: 27.5 unitsLast edited by trytime; 26-11-11, 15:35.
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I suppose the only thing you could say about the in-running bet is that the bookies have a reason for making the line a certain number at a certain price that's probably smarter than "the game's been going like X in the first half and I think it'll go like Y in the second half".
If we're gonna bet in running I feel like its more on snap reactions to penalties/sin bins etc or whatever to find value, and even then I suspect the books have a faster stream than we have so I wouldn't be surprised if it's just straight up not profitable for the likes of us.
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Latest status of BR
2 active bets are Biarritz to win group for 5 units
and that wan for Xfactor 25 units
Dave, check this when u see it , i think the current Bank maybe incorrect as we profited +9 when risking 18 units. So now the at risk has gone from 48 back to 30 and i added the +9 to "profit/loss" and "current bank"
Initial Bank: 368 units
Current Bank: 399.5 units
At Risk: 30 units
Profit/Loss: 36.5 unitsLast edited by trytime; 28-11-11, 23:30.
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Originally posted by Keane View PostI suppose the only thing you could say about the in-running bet is that the bookies have a reason for making the line a certain number at a certain price that's probably smarter than "the game's been going like X in the first half and I think it'll go like Y in the second half".
If we're gonna bet in running I feel like its more on snap reactions to penalties/sin bins etc or whatever to find value, and even then I suspect the books have a faster stream than we have so I wouldn't be surprised if it's just straight up not profitable for the likes of us.Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by Keane View PostWe've added another 25 units to the bankroll to get money Janet Devlin on the best odds left (4/1 Stan James), gonna probably get a little bit loosey-goosey with certain bets to try and spin up a little bit, because neither of us would be particularly crushed by going busto and we do have some ambitions
So here's where we are now:
Initial Bank: 338 units
Current Bank: 370.5 units
At Risk: 25 units
Profit/Loss: 32.5 units
Poor old Janet had a mare I hear, unforgivably forgetting the words to one of my all time favourite tracks MMMBop by the irrepressible Hanson. Although their fourth studio album "The Walk" is my personal favourite, Middle of Nowhere's unmistakable MMMBop deserves better than having its words forgotten by wannabe pop tarts on talent shows. For shame
Anyways, that leaves us looking like so:
Initial Bank: 368 units
Current Bank: 399.5 units
At Risk: 5 units
Profit/Loss: 36.5 units
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Was waiting for the Liverpool team to be announced earlier as thought 3/1 was pretty big if they fielded a decent team which sure enough they did.
Added five units to get on with Totesport who had the best odds at the time.
Initial Bank: 373 units
Current Bank: 419.5 units
At Risk: 5 units
Profit/Loss: 46.5 units
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Went into a panicked frenzy when I heard what I thought was breaking news that Cavani was missing for Napoli (turned out it had broken about an hour and a half earlier ) and accidentally put 5 units on both Juve to draw and to win instead of just to win...
Oh well
Initial Bank: 373 units
Current Bank: 425.5 units
At Risk: 5 units
Profit/Loss: 52.5 units
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Originally posted by Keane View PostWent into a panicked frenzy when I heard what I thought was breaking news that Cavani was missing for Napoli (turned out it had broken about an hour and a half earlier ) and accidentally put 5 units on both Juve to draw and to win instead of just to win...
Oh well
Initial Bank: 373 units
Current Bank: 425.5 units
At Risk: 5 units
Profit/Loss: 52.5 unitsGo big or go homeless.
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Incidentally I appreciate that there's a bit of aftertiming and whatnot ITT but some of my bets I don't want to discuss for one reason or another, some bets I don't have time to write up during the day etc. so bear in mind that it's a log for us to keep track of what we're doing and nothing more and excuse the occasional gloating
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Initial look at the Aus V Wales match . Right now PP has Aus -3 @ 10/11
However 365 has Wales +5 @10/11
Wales XV: Halfpenny (Cardiff Blues); G North (Scarlets), Scott Williams (Scarlets), J Roberts (Cardiff Blues), Shane Williams (Ospreys); R Priestland (Scarlets), L Williams (Cardiff Blues); G Jenkins (Cardiff Blues), H Bennett (Ospreys), S Andrews (Cardiff Blues), B Davies (Cardiff Blues), I Evans (Ospreys), D Lydiate (Newport Gwent Dragons), S Warburton (Cardiff Blues, capt), T Faletau (Newport Gwent Dragons).
Replacements: M Rees (Scarlets), R Bevington (Ospreys), R Jones (Ospreys), J Tipuric (Ospreys), T Knoyle (Scarlets), D Biggar (Ospreys), A Cuthbert (Cardiff Blues).
Australia XV: A Ashley-Cooper; L Turner, R Horne, B Barnes, D Ioane; J O'Connor, W Genia; J Slipper, T Polota-Nau, S Ma'afu, J Horwill (capt), R Simmons, S Higginbotham, D Pocock, B McCalman.
Replacements: S Moore, B Alexander, N Sharpe, R Samo, B Lucas, B Tapuai, A Fainga'a.
Im really not too confident to pull the trigger on this one, as there are a lot of factors going on with Wales.
-Shane Williams last game , they should be well up for a big performance for his farewell
-Wanting to avenge the 3rd/4th playoff match?
-Welsh clubs generally on good form in recent weeks
However
- AWJ and Charteris out with injury
Any and all comments welcome
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Originally posted by mdoug View Posthate you! hah. I lost a lot on that game but got on at 3.1, so flukey ya bastard!
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Originally posted by Keane View PostAlso, iirc I got on at 3.25 and was a bit late to the party even at that considering a lot had been matched at 3.3 on Betfair. 3.1 would have been too low for me if I had been checking the price calmly and not trying to react to the "breaking" news.Go big or go homeless.
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Yeah just saying, I've become waaaaaay more price conscious since I started this, cos I got some great advice about it so basically in a spot like that I'd be checking oddschecker and if I don't have money available wherever the price is best I'll pretty much just leave it off almost everytime.
Multi made a great point in his Well a few weeks ago about sports betting, basically something along the lines of "If you always back everything at the best available price it's pretty hard to go broke". I'm living by that fwiw.
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OK another wan im looking at is Leinster v Cardiff.
Leinster Team
SPOILER15: Isa Nacewa
14: David Kearney
13: Eoin O'Malley
12: Fergus McFadden
11: Fionn Carr
10: Ian Madigan
9: Isaac Boss
1: Cian Healy
2: Richardt Strauss
3: Nathan White
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN
5: Steven Sykes
6: Rhys Ruddock
7: Shane Jennings
8: Sean O'Brien
REPLACEMENTS:
16: Sean Cronin
17: Heinke van der Merwe
18: Mike Ross
19: Damian Browne
20: Leo Auva'a
21: Eoin Reddan
22: Jonathan Sexton
23: Rob Kearney
Cardiff
SPOILER15 Chris Czekaj 14 Richard Mustoe 13 Casey Laulala 12 Gavin Evans 11 Tom James 10 Ceri Sweeney 9 Richie Rees 8 Xavier Rush 7 Josh Navidi 6 Maama Molitika 5 Paul Tito (Capt) 4 Cory Hill 3 Taufaao Filise 2 Ryan Tyrrell 1 John Yapp
Bet 365 has Leinster -9 @10/11
These are 2 relatively inexperienced teams but I think Leinsters good form with their youth esp O Malley in recent games will trump the welsh. Wales game this weekend against Aus crucially means no Warburton, G Jenkins or Roberts, while Leinster have a crazy strong bench to call on with Sexton Kearney Reddan and Mike Ross.
Home advantage with this means victory is probably a lock and leinsters style of play with a really pacey back line allows for a lot of scores and McFadden recently is kicking the points too so im liking a -9 as a line right now. Expect SOB to dominate at his rightful place of No 8.
I have Leinster backed for 3 units -9 @10/11
Initial Bank: 383 units
Current Bank: 453 units
At Risk: 13 units
Profit/Loss: 80 unitsLast edited by Keane; 01-12-11, 17:04.
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Saw on the RSS just announced within the last 30 mins that Scarlets v Munster fixture will be reffed by Poite. This is bad news for Munster as he has always been rough and heavily penalises and clearly disapproves of the munster approach at rucktime.
Therefore Munster can pretty much write off a win in Parc Y Scarlets . Assuming that Munster still win in Thomond these two games will cancel each other out.
Now considering that Munster will struggle to get any points in the Gardens against NH even if NH are going to be out of the competition as they are always motivated to beat Munster (and Amlin should be an option for them)
- the fact that scarlets got 5 point bonus win from there. That really means that Scarlets are in the driving seat for that fixture and could make huge gains on Munster.
The biggest obstacle for Scarlets will probably be Castres away as they will need to pull some points from there. Since this will also be the last fixture of the group for both teams the French are a lot more likely to field a really weak team as by then they will be out of the competition completely
All in all it looks to be a good future for Scarlets here.
I checked oddscheker and Scarlets are 9/4 to win the group on totesport. I put 5 units on this as i think its great value.
-note : ive also added 5 more units to BR
Initial Bank: 388 units
Current Bank: 453 units
At Risk: 18 units
Profit/Loss: 75 unitsLast edited by Keane; 01-12-11, 17:05.
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Found a nice gap in price for the Ospreys V Munster Match Ospreys Scr @10/11 on Victor
And Munster + 4 on William Hill.
Put 5 units on each. Effectively risking less than 1 unit with the potential to profit nearly 9 units
Ill update the BR after the result as its annonying to factor in the Arb aspect of it.Last edited by trytime; 02-12-11, 21:25.
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Last edited by trytime; 02-12-11, 21:55.
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Right, time for an update. Having perused our various accounts we currently stand thusly:
Bet365:
245 units
Totesport:
20 units
5 unit bet in running on Scarlets to win HEC Group
Victor Chandler:
113 units
5 unit bet in running Munster +4 vs Ospreys
Paddy Power:
66 units
5 unit bet in running Australia -3 vs Wales
5 unit bet in running Biarritz HEC Biarritz to top HEC Group
Stan James:
30 units
William Hill:
7.5 units
5 unit bet in running Ospreys Scr vs Munster
12.5 unit bet in running Chelsea vs Newcastle
Betfair:
41 units
Bwin:
30 units
Adds up to 552.5 units, but due to a clerical error () Alan is owed 75 units out of that, so current BR is 477.5, with 27.5 units staked on bets in running.
Not sure to be completely honest what we've invested since we've been lashing money into accounts left right and centre to avail of best prices, free bets etc. When we hit 500 units I think we'll probably redefine our units and go again.
Current Bank: 477.5 units
At Risk: 32.5 units
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Originally posted by Keane View PostVery nice Arb here folks if anyone's awake, ROI >8%
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/...teams-to-scoreProfit before people.
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Originally posted by Keane View PostVery nice Arb here folks if anyone's awake, ROI >8%
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/...teams-to-score
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Originally posted by Keane View PostYeah agree with that, but at early days for us I'm happy to take these risk free opportunities to increase the BR with no variance to worry about.
Short term problem hopefully
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Originally posted by KK82 View PostProbably a stupid Q, but how do they know you're doing arb bets? They're with two different bookies, right?Profit before people.
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