It's gone now alright - they've taken down all the corners and cards markets.
Any idea about how/when they notify you about voids?
Not sure how laddies do their business re errors. Some companies admit to mistakes and just pay out(sportingbet.com), others always void after results. Prob wont notify you either. You could notify them beforehand to see whats up but then you're drawing attention to your bet. Seems a horrible situation as you've invested a good bit of the roll in the arb.
Gimmeabreak may no more about this sort of thing.
Last edited by The Situation; 09-11-11, 18:08.
Reason: possibly the most grammar errors of all time
Not sure how laddies do their business re errors. Some companies admit to mistakes and just pay out(sportingbet.com), others always void after results. Prob wont notify you either. You could notify them beforehand to see whats up but then you're drawing attention to your bet. Seems a horrible situation as you've invested a good bit of the roll in the arb.
Gimmeabreak may no more about this sort of thing.
Looking at their T&Cs they don't void when they price a market wrong they just pay out at whatever they reckon the price "should have been".
It's not really a big deal anyway, I added onto the roll specifically to try and cash in on this so the original roll can still be measured for progress and whatnot. It would be a cheap enough lesson about the risks of arbitrage, and the whole point of the log is to be less shit at betting sports in general so it's all part of it!
Well they have an excellent european pedigree but are really floudering thsi year with one win in France.
They have there world cup players back Harinordoquay captain fantastic and Yachvilli at 9.
With Saracens and Ospreys and an improving Treviso side hard toos ee the value in 2/1
there main goal will be top 14 in France
Well it's because of their European form is why i think its a reasonably good bet, they've topped their groups in the last 2 seasons. Like you said they have returning from WC Hari and Yachvilli who can keep them alive in any game , as well as Traille and the US's Ngweyna who can be class on their day. Like Northampton they are a team that are sick of finishing second in the HCup and will be hungry.
While Sarries are the favorites for the group based on their Aviva form, their European form in recent years is erratic at best, bottom of their group last year, weren't even in the HCup the previous 2 years (admittedly in '08 they did top the group which included Biarittz and went on top the semi Final). Obv a crucial match will be on the 19th when they play Biarritz away. Another unqiue note on this groups is that the Sarries home match against Biarritz is being played in Capetown, which should lessen the home advantage of that game.
I think Ospreys are not going to be as strong a team this year with the loss of Hook and most importantly Mike Phillips. Biggar is a capable FH and Ospreys pack will be good but in fairness all teams in this group have solid packs. But it they will still be very tough for any team at home.
Treviso are improving, i agree , Biarittz should still get the wins from both of those fixtures, as should the other teams, but Treviso could cause an upset along the way.
Overall its a tight group, but Biarritz have points scorers on their team, losing BP could be very important in this group to determine the final outcome.
I think if you ran this group 3 times Biarittz top it at least once.
Went ahead and backed Harlequins -16 this morning @ 11/10 w/B365.
We had been holding out on this initially as Ladbrokes were offering -15 earlier in the week and we have a free €50 bet available after tonight, but with the line moving to -16 I decided just to take it for 2 units w/B365
Total Stake: 2 units
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 221.5units At Risk: 89.5 units (85.5 Arb) Profit/Loss: -2 units
Spent a bit of time thinking about this game during the week and talked about a weakness I perceived in Estonia's scoring power on the Football Betting thread here, here & here.
With this and PP's money back on losing Correct Score bets I decided to put the following on:
Estonia 0 - 0 Ireland - 2 units @ 9/2
Estonia 1 - 0 Ireland - 1.5 units @ 13/2
Estonia 1 - 1 Ireland - 1.8 units @ 5/1
Estonia 0 - 1 Ireland - 2 units @ 9/2
which basically equated to a freeroll as long as Estonia didn't score two goals which I was very confident wouldn't happen.
It was looking good after twelve minutes that at least we wouldn't lose anything, but obv Ireland went on to crush so no profit, but how bad.
(not going to bother updating the running total here as this was a bet designed to be ~risk-free and ended up not affecting the roll at all)
Noticed this morning that Ladbrokes had the over 55 points card index priced up out of whack with everywhere else on the Bosnia – Portugal match on Friday, which allowed a nice bit of Arbitrage when coupled with the Under 35 and Between 35 & 55 markets on Victor Chandler.
At the time I backed them the prices were:
Case 1: Over 55 points - 11/4 (Ladbrokes)
Case 2: Between 35 & 55 - 15/8 (VC)
Case 3: Under 35 points - 23/10 (VC)
Ended up punting according to this:
Weird amounts I know, but the idea was to bet as little as possible (life-busto ) while maximising profit and getting the full €50 free bet bonus from Ladbrokes.
The outcomes should be as follows:
Case 1 Profit: €16.81
Case 2 Profit: €14.75
Case 3 Profit: €14.74
Nice profit considering our unit size is €2, assuming I haven't made a mess of it.
Total Stake: 85 units Net Result: +7 units (min, 8 units max)
Initial Bank: 213 units Current Bank: 212 units At Risk: 85 units (Arb) Profit/Loss: -1 units
Winner
Happily avoided any drama about voided bets and all the rest here with the Unders coming up trumps for a profit of 7.3 more or less risk-free units
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 314.3 units At Risk: 4 units Profit/Loss: 5.3 units
Went ahead and backed Harlequins -16 this morning @ 11/10 w/B365.
We had been holding out on this initially as Ladbrokes were offering -15 earlier in the week and we have a free €50 bet available after tonight, but with the line moving to -16 I decided just to take it for 2 units w/B365
Total Stake: 2 units
Initial Bank: 213 units Current Bank: 215.5 units At Risk: 4 units Profit/Loss: 2.5 units
Loser
I didn't get to see this game and I'm pretty sure Alan didn't either - I'll leave the post-mortem up to him as he said he'll probably watch it during the week.
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 315.5 units At Risk: 0 units Profit/Loss: 2.5 units
Think there's a unit or two gone astray somewhere between all the cutting and pasting, but I'm gonna run with the total from here as being correct just for simplicity.
1. Don't bet on friendlies
2. Don't follow tips
3. Back the + side of handicaps in opening rounds of rugby competitions - underdogs seem to put forth a lot of effort in early games, and their physicality matches up in early rounds before the few games beatings have taken their toll.
found this online in view of free bet offers,not sure if its any good to ye but no harm looking in to it ie.olbg.com/free_bets.php
Nice one, thanks for that.
We've got cash spread across PP, B365 and Victor Chandler now so have a couple of options but definitely need to keep branching out and these free bets are such a great bankroll booster if you can ping a couple of winners.
We've a free €50 bet on Ladbrokes to use now to hopefully get ourselves up & running with a roll there, after that we'll be looking to avail of more of these offers again.
I know we said we're not backing Intl Friendlies anymore but there might be a tiny bit of value in Germany 10/11 against Holland in Hamburg.
Holland were poor the other night against Switzerland I'm told, and will have neither VDV (injured) nor RVP (rested) in the team tonight, with Sneijder also having sat out the end of training last night so possibly missing as well.
I have a €50 free bet on Ladbrokes that I may stick on this...
"i know we said . . . BUT"
If your only a few weeks into everything, and you've only got a few initial guidelines or rules, the above being one. You should listen to them
You should also want an enormous reason to go against it. The above isnt it IMO.
What do we know about the German team? There should be good motivational factors for both teams to try (albeit a little light the dutch)
What price would you make it yourself? What % does this have to be out by before you are happy enough to get involved?
The price you make it compared to a friendly should also differ. Point being, Id need a lot of positives and a much higher edge to punt an international game than a competitive one. And even at that, the info you can get from the BBC snippet, will never have you ahead of the market, but Neutral EV flipping at best
Also, Dont feel such an urge to use the Ladbrokes bet unless your under time constraints. Its still money, view it as serious a bet as any other
no probs David - If my advice is worth anything, more than happy to help. So feel free to ask!
look at team news, price games up (without knowing proper prices) and then see how far off you are. Those you were miles off, watch them or read a few match reports. Also see what the off price was. If market shortens your direction and/or the game is all your way, then your doing something right.
Id recommend doing this more so in leagues than random friendlies were you have very little to back it up on and so much guess work (substitutions - motivation etc)
for your bet,
laddies and a few others have portugal 1.44 tonight
Sbo (a very good guide) have it 1.38
Betfair have it 143/144 (which would need commission factored in after this)
So without even looking at anything team news wise, this is never a bad bet
Belarus to beat libya is
162/164 with bf (commision not factored yet)
158 with sbo
and 1.67 with Laddies
Do these two in a double.
Higher variance but increases your edge slightly. Using the bf line at present as the correct line this gives you a decent edge (even if you had the mythical 2% commission rate on bf)
These are just 2 bets i found by skimming for 5 mins with 3 pages open, minus any team news what so ever
if you work out the extra edge you get here let me know, wouldnt be my exact strong point and i also couldnt be arsed
After doing a few EV calculations it looked like a pretty nice spot:
Are there players who either team are exceptionally reliant on (e.g. Rooney, Van Persie) that are missing?
Are there any players who may not be identifiably injured but whom the manager may unexpectedly decide to rest (e.g. Van Der Vaart)?
Can team news in previous games inform our reading of form etc. of those games (e.g. Arsenal's form changing dramatically when RVP is in/out)?
Player Matchups
Does Team A have a slow CB pairing which can be exploited by a particularly quick striker for Team B?
Are there any players who have a psychological edge over their direct opponent (e.g. Torres vs Vidic)?
Is anyone playing out of position up against a particularly dangerous opponent (e.g. Carragher at full-back vs Nani)?
Team Matchups
Does this team have any particular strength which matches up well with a weakness of the opposition (e.g. good counter-attack vs a team with lazy wingers, aerial threat vs a team poor at defending corners, excellent free taker vs team poor at defending set pieces etc.)?
Home form vs Away form
How have the team been performing in their last several games?
Has the team's home form been noticeably different to their away form and how is that likely to affect their chances?
How many goals has the team been scoring/conceding lately at home/away?
How does their tactical approach vary between home games and away games?
Performances against similar opposition
Does this team change its approach to playing a top six club compared to playing relegation battlers? If so, how effective have they been against opposition similar to their next opponents?
Motivational factors
Is this a derby match?
Is there any special history between these two sides (e.g. Arsenal vs Stoke)?
Impact of previous games
Have the team suffer a setback or have a good win?
Have the team had a particularly grueling encounter in their previous game?
Are the team coming back after a European game? If so, were they at home or away, and how do they usually perform after European games?
Impact of future games
How will the team's approach to this game be affected by upcoming fixtures?
Is there a big Euro game coming up which may make them rest important players or withdraw them early?
Is the team more interested in an upcoming game against a relegation/title rival next week than a game against a team at the opposite end of the table this week?
Conditions
Is there a chance bad weather could reduce the gap between the teams?
Is the game at a ground likely to be more or less affected by wind and rain?
What sort of state is the pitch in and how will it likely affect the teams' ability to play their usual game at their usual tempo?
Referee
Is the referee's style more conducive to one team's style of play over the other's?
If a referee is particularly strict/lenient how will that effect a particularly tough/fragile or disciplined/indisciplined side?
Bet #9 - Munster Club Football Championship - Moyle Rovers vs UCC
Got some team news that Moyle Rovers were likely to be missing a few players for this game this morning.
Had a look on oddschecker and saw that Paddy Power had shortened UCC's odds (having already been shorter than B365 afair) to 1/4, while B365 were still at 4/11.
I figure that's pretty much got to be a bet at that point and stuck 2.5 units on it.
B365 have since shortened slightly to 1/3 so looks like it was a reasonable spot to have gone for, even with the pretty short odds.
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 311 units At Risk: 2.5 units Profit/Loss: 0 units
Got word last night that there had been an outbreak of food poisoning in the Jagiellonia Bialystok team, particularly in their poorly covered backline.
They take on Slask Wroclaw, who are top of the Polish PL, tonight.
Best price available last night was 13/8 on the Slask win with PP, so I took that ahead of an expected shortening of the price this morning when the news broke.
Best price available now is 6/4 with Stan James while PP have shortened to 7/5, so again looks like a bit of an edge there.
2.5 units risked.
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 308.5 units At Risk: 5 units Profit/Loss: -4.5 units
Got word last night that there had been an outbreak of food poisoning in the Jagiellonia Bialystok team, particularly in their poorly covered backline.
They take on Slask Wroclaw, who are top of the Polish PL, tonight.
Best price available last night was 13/8 on the Slask win with PP, so I took that ahead of an expected shortening of the price this morning when the news broke.
Best price available now is 6/4 with Stan James while PP have shortened to 7/5, so again looks like a bit of an edge there.
2.5 units risked.
Initial Bank: 309 units Current Bank: 308.5 units At Risk: 5 units Profit/Loss: -0.5 units
Just read about this elsewhere, must back now obv. Sure throw in the -1 (4/1) and -2 (13/1) for the craic too
Just read about this elsewhere, must back now obv. Sure throw in the -1 (4/1) and -2 (13/1) for the craic too
I figure the market's probably somewhat adjusted by now so some of the value is probably gone, I don't want to steam into it anyway until I know the source of the early team news is reliable but good luck with your bets.
I like the look of the above bets. I think Everton v Wolves is a stone wall unders bet tho, and Sunderland v Fulham doesn't look like there's too many goals in it either.
We've been working on a model for predicting Over/Unders in soccer matches as well, so here's a few of those I'll be looking at and deciding on after the Intl games:
Overs:
Norwich vs Arsenal
Spurs vs Villa
Unders:
Stoke v QPR
Swansea v Man United
I think there is huge value in the Norwich v Arsenal game with Arsenal being the away team but nowhere near as much if the home/away is reversed.
I wrote this out in response to some guy backing Kilmurray tomorrow but said fuck it, why spoil his sweat. Might as well post it somewhere.
My two cents if you're interested:
Kilmurray were blessed to win Munster in 2009, beating Kerins O'Rahillys by a point on a dreadful day with a ref to match who gave them everything, O'Rahillys being denied a goal in the last ten minutes for the most lol square ball decision you're likely to see and being denied a stone wall free straight in front of the posts to level it in the dying seconds.
Their semi-final win was equally fortunate with Port Laois having a man sent off in the first minute, and they were soundly beaten by St. Gall's once their run of good fortune came to an end.
They have major injury worries with Odhran O’Dwyer, John Daly and Niall Hickey all struggling and are travelling down to play the game in Fitzgerald's Stadium on what may as well be Crokes home pitch.
With the weather forecasted to be fairly reasonable tomorrow I can't see Kilmurray causing an upset, with the 11/10 about Crokes -4 looking about right.
Got word last night that there had been an outbreak of food poisoning in the Jagiellonia Bialystok team, particularly in their poorly covered backline.
They take on Slask Wroclaw, who are top of the Polish PL, tonight.
Best price available last night was 13/8 on the Slask win with PP, so I took that ahead of an expected shortening of the price this morning when the news broke.
Best price available now is 6/4 with Stan James while PP have shortened to 7/5, so again looks like a bit of an edge there.
2.5 units risked.
Initial Bank: 309 units Current Bank: 308.5 units At Risk: 5 units Profit/Loss: -0.5 units
Got some team news that Moyle Rovers were likely to be missing a few players for this game this morning.
Had a look on oddschecker and saw that Paddy Power had shortened UCC's odds (having already been shorter than B365 afair) to 1/4, while B365 were still at 4/11.
I figure that's pretty much got to be a bet at that point and stuck 2.5 units on it.
B365 have since shortened slightly to 1/3 so looks like it was a reasonable spot to have gone for, even with the pretty short odds.
Initial Bank: 309 units Current Bank: 311 units At Risk: 2.5 units Profit/Loss: 2 units
Winner
UCC ended up winning this extremely comfortably in the end. Obv short price bets like this are going to be a long time making you rich but I think the logic/approach to why this was a good bet was right which is the main thing. Win roughly a unit.
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 312 units At Risk: 2.5 units Profit/Loss: -1 units
Got word last night that there had been an outbreak of food poisoning in the Jagiellonia Bialystok team, particularly in their poorly covered backline.
They take on Slask Wroclaw, who are top of the Polish PL, tonight.
Best price available last night was 13/8 on the Slask win with PP, so I took that ahead of an expected shortening of the price this morning when the news broke.
Best price available now is 6/4 with Stan James while PP have shortened to 7/5, so again looks like a bit of an edge there.
2.5 units risked.
Initial Bank: 309 units Current Bank: 308.5 units At Risk: 5 units Profit/Loss: -0.5 units
Winner
Nice touch, up another 4 units.
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 318.5 units At Risk: 0 units Profit/Loss: 5.5 units
Put on my €25 free bet with VC on an over/under bet in a soccer game, plus another 5 units of our main bankroll ended up showing another 42 units of profit between the jigs and the reels
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 360.5 units At Risk: 0 units Profit/Loss: 47.5 units
Pretty sure Alan stuck a few quid on Toulouse to cover the spread against Connacht yesterday evening as well, I'll get him to write it up tomorrow but overall looking like a decent few days from us.
If only I hadn't been too hungover to back the United 1-0 that I'd been talking about for days
Got Toulouse for 5 units -10 @ 10/11 for Connacht game. Weather was big factor here. Toulouse could have been dragged to Connachts level if the the game was wet and windy. But in the end it was a clear calm night with only a slightly wet surface. Toulouse dominated both out wide and upfront(particularly at breakdown) and could have won by more in the end. Connacht saved face by getting a penalty try from a scrum. Worth noting too that despite the sellout of 9000 tickets and the fact that this was a rare match for Connacht, the atmosphere was poor and crowd never really lifted Connacht, unlike Ravenhill or Thomond.
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 365.5 units At Risk: 0 units Profit/Loss: 52.5 units
Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:14.
Reason: Fix the bolding on the account summary
Have put 3 units on the over 2.5 in this game at 4/7 w/Victor Chandler. With 4/6 being the line most other places there should be a little sniff of value about 4/7.
As well as that, myself and Alan have agreed that putting little bets on to encourage us to watch games that we maybe wouldn't normally is something we can maybe consider as an investment in terms of getting more familiar with teams and that sort of thing.
Finally, my over/unders model flagged this game up as an overs candidate so...
All things considered this is probably a neutral EV bet tbh, bubt we're running good and it's got some non-financial value
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 362.5 units At Risk: 3 units Profit/Loss: 49.5 units
Have put 3 units on the over 2.5 in this game at 4/7 w/Victor Chandler. With 4/6 being the line most other places there should be a little sniff of value about 4/7.
As well as that, myself and Alan have agreed that putting little bets on to encourage us to watch games that we maybe wouldn't normally is something we can maybe consider as an investment in terms of getting more familiar with teams and that sort of thing.
Finally, my over/unders model flagged this game up as an overs candidate so...
All things considered this is probably a neutral EV bet tbh, but we're running good and it's got some non-financial value
Initial Bank: 309 units Current Bank: 323.5 units At Risk: 3 units Profit/Loss: 14.5 units
Loser
Don't ask me how this didn't end up a winner, Adebayor could have scored eight.
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 362.5 units At Risk: 0 units Profit/Loss: 49.5 units
Put on my €25 free bet with VC on an over/under bet in a soccer game, ended up showing another 8 units of profit between the jigs and the reels.
Initial Bank: 309 units Current Bank: 321.5 units At Risk: 0 units Profit/Loss: 12.5 units
For one thing, I just counted the "profit" instead of adding the €25 free bet as a new addition to the bankroll, plus I actually had two bets on this match, one of which was incorrectly settled and later updated as a winner without me realising.
Here's what it should have looked like, I've updated it above.
Put on my €25 free bet with VC on an over/under bet in a soccer game, plus another 5 units of our main bankroll ended up showing another 42 units of profit between the jigs and the reels
Initial Bank: 313 units Current Bank: 360.5 units At Risk: 0 units Profit/Loss: 47.5 units
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