Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Strewelpeter]

This is so depressing.

Fucking America is broken. I don't get it.

On one hand I feel like if I was an American I'd be out protesting about this.
On the other I've never protested about anything in my life.

I've just re read 1984 for the first time since the 70's and came to the conclusion that if he had named it 2024 instead people might have seen this coming.
I genuinely think people's understanding of what Orwell was talking about got confused in our trying to deal with the later stages of the cold war when in fact what he was warning us about is exactly what is happening now. It is completely about Fake news and a leader who can say anything at all and it becomes truth because there is no resistance, there is no truth.

[Strewelpeter]

Probably further evidence of how bizarrly fckd up the US media is

TSLA 585.91 USD +38.71 (7.07%)

#PrayForDenny

[Denny Crane]

Probably further evidence of how bizarrly fckd up the US media is

TSLA 585.91 USD +38.71 (7.07%)

#PrayForDenny

Ah I had some puts that expired. It wasn't a naked short.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Opr]

I doubt many here have seen this but Phil Galfond made this challenge to the poker world. It is basically an open offer to the poker world of HU PLO/NL, similar to the infamous Durrrr challenge: 50k hands, 3:1 on a side bet of 10 buyins, played at 100/200+.

First challenge streaming on twitch with Joe Stapleton and Richard Gryko doing commentary. Venividi the challenger. Anyone know who he is? I presume he is one of the online high stakes reg as the side bet is Phils 200k to his 100k over 25k hands which seems to be the lowest by far for the sidebet odds.

https://www.twitch.tv/runitoncepoker

Opr

[Flushdraw]

First challenge streaming on twitch with Joe Stapleton and Richard Gryko doing commentary. Venividi the challenger. Anyone know who he is? I presume he is one of the online high stakes reg.

https://www.twitch.tv/runitoncepoker

Opr

No idea who he is. Commentary is awful because the software moves too quickly, and they can't even read the winning hands. So mind-numbingly boring. Switch over to Joey Ingram on youtube whenever he is on. 1 million times better.

https://youtu.be/j8uUJprkhCg?t=683

as the side bet is Phils 200k to his 100k over 25k hands which seems to be the lowest by far for the sidebet odds.

[Flushdraw]

I think i've got something in my eye...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTFbGcnl0po

[Wombatman]

PP have Michael Healy-Rae 1/500 to win a seat in Kerry.

By contrast Éamon Ó Cuív is 1/8 to win one in Galway West. Has to be free money surely? Topped the poll in the last four and FF on a rising tide.

What are the chances of him popping his clops or being snapped 'boning' a sheep between now and the 8th of Feb?

[Strewelpeter]

Rudi is the gift that keeps giving

[Lao Lao]

Decided to head down to the local to watch the Utd match tonight.

I've reported from here before, about 8/9 months ago about a couple on a date in the very early days of their relationship.

Low and behold, tonight, there wasn't just one date going on but two. Yes, TWO dates and a Utd match. Not only that, but the TWO dates were sitting just TWO tables apart AND they were sitting either side of the big screen TV.

I mean, for a people watching, Man Utd fan, this was seventh heaven. I could sit back in my comfortable bar stool and watch all three sporting events at the same time with ease.

I'm going to digress here, but for me, a good bar stool has to have a raised back and arms that arch round the front. The raised back has a two fold function, it gives support to the lower back but also allows for some lounging and dare I say it, a little bit of slouching of an evening after a hard days graft. The arms that arch round to the front, well, to me they're essential, like when you're sipping pints, watching football/dates, you need somewhere to rest your elbows, otherwise, you'd be totally awkward and uncomfortable looking and the dates would pick up on that awkwardness/uncomfortableness (humans are great body language readers) and the last thing I'd want to do is ruin a potential relationship due to choosing the wrong bar stool.

Anyhow, back to the night in question. I clocked the lad on the first date before he entered the pub. He was just behind me as I walked in and as I went to hold the door for him, he hesitated and dived into his phone as he stood outside the pub. I thought nothing of it until a few minutes later when I saw him approach a lady sitting on her own, both of them with their phones in their hands. I can only assume there was some last minute frantic texting to ensure they knew they were both on site and ready for the date. This and the general body language made me think that this may have even been a first date.

The lad was English and the best way of describing him, looks wise, would be a cross between Hitch and Nick Munier. Not only was he living in a foreign land but he was clearly not on his own patch in Dublin as after a fairly formal greeting with his lady friend, he approached the bar somewhat nervously and enquired what ciders they stocked. The barman rattled off 3 or 4 varieties and after a short but fairly intense period of thinking, he opted for a "half of orchard thieves". There was no need to order a drink for his lady friend as not only was she there ahead of him, but she had already got a G&T in for herself along with a half pint of water as a chaser - another clear sign to me that we were in first date territory.

Hitch Munier was quite smartly dressed to be fair to him and after taking off his coat, he was still wearing a cardigan with a white shirt underneath. Throughout the course of the next 75 minutes, the conversation appeared to be fairly strained at first with Hitch Munier being fairly animated and almost forcing the conversation but he eventually seemed to relax with the cardigan coming off after 40 minutes and the white shirt sleeves being opened up and folded to the elbow after a further 15 minutes (I'd say he was raging he didn't have an arm rest to lean the bare elbows on)

The pace of drinking was ridiculously slow. I was half way through my third pint and while Hitch Munier had finished his half, he had politely refused the lounge girls requests on whether they wanted another drink twice, while his lady friend still wasn't quite done with the G&T. After a good 75 minutes, they both, fairly abruptly, got up and headed for the door, albeit together. His lady friend had finished her G&T but didn't take so much as a sip from her water. Part of me wanted to nip out and see the inevitable awkward goodbye/kiss on the check/No, I'll call you ending to the date but Utd had somehow managed to mount something resembling an attack so I sat firm in the bar stool in anticipation. I'm not sure who was more disappointed in the end, me or Hitch Munier.


The other couple was a different ball game altogether. At first, I thought that the lad was there on his own as he was already there when I arrived, sitting at a table with a pint of Guinness, in perfect position to watch the match. He was a good bit young that Hitch Munier (late 20's/early 30's v's Hitch Munier's advanced years of being early 40's) His lady friend arrived after Hitch Munier and although the initial greeting was a kiss on the check, it was done in a very sweet way. It was only after his lady friend sat down, that I realised he was a gent. His lady friend moved the drinks menu on the table to reveal a G&T that he had bought for her in advance.

Now, call me old fashioned, but the lad was on his game. He was early (unlike Hitch Munier) and he had got in a round, having it sitting there waiting for his lady friend to arrive. The body language of these two was also totally different, with both of them actively leaning into the table and each other and eye contact was full on. Both of them were country folk, him being a less annoying Paul Galvin type, fairly fashionable (shoes no socks) well groomed, looked like he played GAA at the weekend (back home of course) but fairly laid back, while she was a pretty girl next door type who was low maintenance and easy going - On ordering their second round, she had no preference for either gin or tonic, definitely low maintenance. I put them on just shy of ten dates but couldn't fully determine whether he'd managed to cover all the bases yet. She had a glint in her eye that said I want to jump your bones but I may tease you a bit beforehand. It was a tough one to judge.

They headed off just ahead of the first couple but based on the timing (a few minutes before 9) the amount they drank and the way they interacted, I'm pretty sure they were heading off for dinner and there would be no awkwardness outside.

I tell ya what lads, I'm totally torn. It's not often I manage to get out to the pub for mid week Premier League games but when I do, Utd play something awful but on the flip side, the amount of early stage dates the local hosts is off the charts.

I was more engrossed in the dates than the match and was somewhat disappointed they both left with over half an hour left to play and only one sporting event to watch. Although, I'm not even sure you could call it sport, it was closer to fox hunting where one side was gradually hunted down and killed by the other.

[balfejohn]

Decided to head down to the local to watch the Utd match tonight.

I've reported from here before, about 8/9 months ago about a couple on a date in the very early days of their relationship.

Low and behold, tonight, there wasn't just one date going on but two. Yes, TWO dates and a Utd match. Not only that, but the TWO dates were sitting just TWO tables apart AND they were sitting either side of the big screen TV.

I mean, for a people watching, Man Utd fan, this was seventh heaven. I could sit back in my comfortable bar stool and watch all three sporting events at the same time with ease.

I'm going to digress here, but for me, a good bar stool has to have a raised back and arms that arch round the front. The raised back has a two fold function, it gives support to the lower back but also allows for some lounging and dare I say it, a little bit of slouching of an evening after a hard days graft. The arms that arch round to the front, well, to me they're essential, like when you're sipping pints, watching football/dates, you need somewhere to rest your elbows, otherwise, you'd be totally awkward and uncomfortable looking and the dates would pick up on that awkwardness/uncomfortableness (humans are great body language readers) and the last thing I'd want to do is ruin a potential relationship due to choosing the wrong bar stool.

Anyhow, back to the night in question. I clocked the lad on the first date before he entered the pub. He was just behind me as I walked in and as I went to hold the door for him, he hesitated and dived into his phone as he stood outside the pub. I thought nothing of it until a few minutes later when I saw him approach a lady sitting on her own, both of them with their phones in their hands. I can only assume there was some last minute frantic texting to ensure they knew they were both on site and ready for the date. This and the general body language made me think that this may have even been a first date.

The lad was English and the best way of describing him, looks wise, would be a cross between Hitch and Nick Munier. Not only was he living in a foreign land but he was clearly not on his own patch in Dublin as after a fairly formal greeting with his lady friend, he approached the bar somewhat nervously and enquired what ciders they stocked. The barman rattled off 3 or 4 varieties and after a short but fairly intense period of thinking, he opted for a "half of orchard thieves". There was no need to order a drink for his lady friend as not only was she there ahead of him, but she had already got a G&T in for herself along with a half pint of water as a chaser - another clear sign to me that we were in first date territory.

Hitch Munier was quite smartly dressed to be fair to him and after taking off his coat, he was still wearing a cardigan with a white shirt underneath. Throughout the course of the next 75 minutes, the conversation appeared to be fairly strained at first with Hitch Munier being fairly animated and almost forcing the conversation but he eventually seemed to relax with the cardigan coming off after 40 minutes and the white shirt sleeves being opened up and folded to the elbow after a further 15 minutes (I'd say he was raging he didn't have an arm rest to lean the bare elbows on)

The pace of drinking was ridiculously slow. I was half way through my third pint and while Hitch Munier had finished his half, he had politely refused the lounge girls requests on whether they wanted another drink twice, while his lady friend still wasn't quite done with the G&T. After a good 75 minutes, they both, fairly abruptly, got up and headed for the door, albeit together. His lady friend had finished her G&T but didn't take so much as a sip from her water. Part of me wanted to nip out and see the inevitable awkward goodbye/kiss on the check/No, I'll call you ending to the date but Utd had somehow managed to mount something resembling an attack so I sat firm in the bar stool in anticipation. I'm not sure who was more disappointed in the end, me or Hitch Munier.


The other couple was a different ball game altogether. At first, I thought that the lad was there on his own as he was already there when I arrived, sitting at a table with a pint of Guinness, in perfect position to watch the match. He was a good bit young that Hitch Munier (late 20's/early 30's v's Hitch Munier's advanced years of being early 40's) His lady friend arrived after Hitch Munier and although the initial greeting was a kiss on the check, it was done in a very sweet way. It was only after his lady friend sat down, that I realised he was a gent. His lady friend moved the drinks menu on the table to reveal a G&T that he had bought for her in advance.

Now, call me old fashioned, but the lad was on his game. He was early (unlike Hitch Munier) and he had got in a round, having it sitting there waiting for his lady friend to arrive. The body language of these two was also totally different, with both of them actively leaning into the table and each other and eye contact was full on. Both of them were country folk, him being a less annoying Paul Galvin type, fairly fashionable (shoes no socks) well groomed, looked like he played GAA at the weekend (back home of course) but fairly laid back, while she was a pretty girl next door type who was low maintenance and easy going - On ordering their second round, she had no preference for either gin or tonic, definitely low maintenance. I put them on just shy of ten dates but couldn't fully determine whether he'd managed to cover all the bases yet. She had a glint in her eye that said I want to jump your bones but I may tease you a bit beforehand. It was a tough one to judge.

They headed off just ahead of the first couple but based on the timing (a few minutes before 9) the amount they drank and the way they interacted, I'm pretty sure they were heading off for dinner and there would be no awkwardness outside.

I tell ya what lads, I'm totally torn. It's not often I manage to get out to the pub for mid week Premier League games but when I do, Utd play something awful but on the flip side, the amount of early stage dates the local hosts is off the charts.

I was more engrossed in the dates than the match and was somewhat disappointed they both left with over half an hour left to play and only one sporting event to watch. Although, I'm not even sure you could call it sport, it was closer to fox hunting where one side was gradually hunted down and killed by the other.

Great match report

[Denny Crane]

Probably further evidence of how bizarrly fckd up the US media is

TSLA 585.91 USD +38.71 (7.07%)

#PrayForDenny

[shrapnel]

Decided to head down to the local to watch the Utd match tonight.

I've reported from here before, about 8/9 months ago about a couple on a date in the very early days of their relationship.

Low and behold, tonight, there wasn't just one date going on but two. Yes, TWO dates and a Utd match. Not only that, but the TWO dates were sitting just TWO tables apart AND they were sitting either side of the big screen TV.

I mean, for a people watching, Man Utd fan, this was seventh heaven. I could sit back in my comfortable bar stool and watch all three sporting events at the same time with ease.

I'm going to digress here, but for me, a good bar stool has to have a raised back and arms that arch round the front. The raised back has a two fold function, it gives support to the lower back but also allows for some lounging and dare I say it, a little bit of slouching of an evening after a hard days graft. The arms that arch round to the front, well, to me they're essential, like when you're sipping pints, watching football/dates, you need somewhere to rest your elbows, otherwise, you'd be totally awkward and uncomfortable looking and the dates would pick up on that awkwardness/uncomfortableness (humans are great body language readers) and the last thing I'd want to do is ruin a potential relationship due to choosing the wrong bar stool.

Anyhow, back to the night in question. I clocked the lad on the first date before he entered the pub. He was just behind me as I walked in and as I went to hold the door for him, he hesitated and dived into his phone as he stood outside the pub. I thought nothing of it until a few minutes later when I saw him approach a lady sitting on her own, both of them with their phones in their hands. I can only assume there was some last minute frantic texting to ensure they knew they were both on site and ready for the date. This and the general body language made me think that this may have even been a first date.

The lad was English and the best way of describing him, looks wise, would be a cross between Hitch and Nick Munier. Not only was he living in a foreign land but he was clearly not on his own patch in Dublin as after a fairly formal greeting with his lady friend, he approached the bar somewhat nervously and enquired what ciders they stocked. The barman rattled off 3 or 4 varieties and after a short but fairly intense period of thinking, he opted for a "half of orchard thieves". There was no need to order a drink for his lady friend as not only was she there ahead of him, but she had already got a G&T in for herself along with a half pint of water as a chaser - another clear sign to me that we were in first date territory.

Hitch Munier was quite smartly dressed to be fair to him and after taking off his coat, he was still wearing a cardigan with a white shirt underneath. Throughout the course of the next 75 minutes, the conversation appeared to be fairly strained at first with Hitch Munier being fairly animated and almost forcing the conversation but he eventually seemed to relax with the cardigan coming off after 40 minutes and the white shirt sleeves being opened up and folded to the elbow after a further 15 minutes (I'd say he was raging he didn't have an arm rest to lean the bare elbows on)

The pace of drinking was ridiculously slow. I was half way through my third pint and while Hitch Munier had finished his half, he had politely refused the lounge girls requests on whether they wanted another drink twice, while his lady friend still wasn't quite done with the G&T. After a good 75 minutes, they both, fairly abruptly, got up and headed for the door, albeit together. His lady friend had finished her G&T but didn't take so much as a sip from her water. Part of me wanted to nip out and see the inevitable awkward goodbye/kiss on the check/No, I'll call you ending to the date but Utd had somehow managed to mount something resembling an attack so I sat firm in the bar stool in anticipation. I'm not sure who was more disappointed in the end, me or Hitch Munier.


The other couple was a different ball game altogether. At first, I thought that the lad was there on his own as he was already there when I arrived, sitting at a table with a pint of Guinness, in perfect position to watch the match. He was a good bit young that Hitch Munier (late 20's/early 30's v's Hitch Munier's advanced years of being early 40's) His lady friend arrived after Hitch Munier and although the initial greeting was a kiss on the check, it was done in a very sweet way. It was only after his lady friend sat down, that I realised he was a gent. His lady friend moved the drinks menu on the table to reveal a G&T that he had bought for her in advance.

Now, call me old fashioned, but the lad was on his game. He was early (unlike Hitch Munier) and he had got in a round, having it sitting there waiting for his lady friend to arrive. The body language of these two was also totally different, with both of them actively leaning into the table and each other and eye contact was full on. Both of them were country folk, him being a less annoying Paul Galvin type, fairly fashionable (shoes no socks) well groomed, looked like he played GAA at the weekend (back home of course) but fairly laid back, while she was a pretty girl next door type who was low maintenance and easy going - On ordering their second round, she had no preference for either gin or tonic, definitely low maintenance. I put them on just shy of ten dates but couldn't fully determine whether he'd managed to cover all the bases yet. She had a glint in her eye that said I want to jump your bones but I may tease you a bit beforehand. It was a tough one to judge.

They headed off just ahead of the first couple but based on the timing (a few minutes before 9) the amount they drank and the way they interacted, I'm pretty sure they were heading off for dinner and there would be no awkwardness outside.

I tell ya what lads, I'm totally torn. It's not often I manage to get out to the pub for mid week Premier League games but when I do, Utd play something awful but on the flip side, the amount of early stage dates the local hosts is off the charts.

I was more engrossed in the dates than the match and was somewhat disappointed they both left with over half an hour left to play and only one sporting event to watch. Although, I'm not even sure you could call it sport, it was closer to fox hunting where one side was gradually hunted down and killed by the other.

Great read, but shoes no socks is pretty much the opposite of fashionable

[Raoul Duke III]

Great match report

he wouldn't have clocked any of that under Ferguson!

Ole Gunnar; bringing acute observational skills to BBV since very recently

[Hectorjelly]

I wonder who he thinks invented the wheel

[Guest]

I wonder who he thinks invented the wheel

Fred Flintstone, he likes wheels and he does good at wheels.

[AndyFatBastard]

^^^ cringe

[Guest]

^^^ cringe

Tbf almost all political cartoons are shockingly awful, this sums it up pretty well

https://youtu.be/50HKLZHOQfA

https://youtu.be/lZms24yYpls

[Guest]

Just occurred to me that that tweet might also be a puss take of shitty political cartoons

[CHDad]

Just occurred to me that that tweet might also be a puss take of shitty political cartoons

Don't think too much now.

[Lao Lao]

Great read, but shoes no socks is pretty much the opposite of fashionable

While I'd personally agree with you, the amount of young hip cool kids flashing the ankle flesh would tend to say othwerwise.

You're now offically in the 'aul lad' camp with me and The Duke

[Guest]

Just occurred to me that that tweet might also be a puss take of shitty political cartoons

The Phoenix has decent cartoons, political cartoons simply are a little cringe, highlighting the cringe is extraneous given it's effectively a prerequisite.

[shrapnel]

While I'd personally agree with you, the amount of young hip cool kids flashing the ankle flesh would tend to say othwerwise.

You're now offically in the 'aul lad' camp with me and The Duke

it might be trendy (and disgusting), it's definitely not fashionable though.

Definitely in the Aul lad camp

[Solksjaer!]

When sending an email , be careful when complimenting someone's insight. Do NOT write incite instead. This will avoid unnecessary arm waving.

[ComradeCollie]

Great read, but shoes no socks is pretty much the opposite of fashionable

I doubt he was sockless. I'd assume he was wearing some low-cut 'sports' socks, the kind that only women used to wear back in the day.

[Goodluck2me]

That's why Ryanair had to get its initial funding on Nasdaq as euro investors couldn't fathom the idea of a low cost airline beating the national behemoths. We should cheer on the excess a bit. Not invest in it mind you, but it's a good thing overall.

Ryanair listed in Dublin and NY at the IPO, the main reason for Nasdaq was that they needed to raise USD (all a/c priced in USD) and that Southwest had already been successful at that business model so it was an easier sell, and thirdly David Bonderman who owned 20% at the time would have good name recognition there to help market it.

I wonder who he thinks invented the wheel

I thought that was an obvious exaggeration to make a point?

The Phoenix has decent cartoons, political cartoons simply are a little cringe, highlighting the cringe is extraneous given it's effectively a prerequisite.

The worst by far is the FT, they wouldn’t make you chuckle or think, they’re cartoon for kids... who lack humour.

[Goodluck2me]

Tbf almost all political cartoons are shockingly awful, this sums it up pretty well

https://youtu.be/50HKLZHOQfA

https://youtu.be/lZms24yYpls

We really need a return of The Day Today. Morris, Ianucci (sp?) and Coogan were a mighty team. The peadogeddon episode still ranks as the best satire I’ve seen

[DeadParrot]

Great read, but shoes no socks is pretty much the opposite of fashionable

Fashion for me started and ended with flannel shirts and tshirts.

[DeadParrot]

The worst by far is the FT, they wouldn’t make you chuckle or think, they’re cartoon for kids... who lack humour.

The New Yorker is the worst for cartoons. Either ridiculously obvious or so convoluted it makes no sense even as a medium

[Raoul Duke III]

The New Yorker is the worst for cartoons. Either ridiculously obvious or so convoluted it makes no sense even as a medium

Obviously the Guardian is for megawankers, but I do like the guy who does the football cartoons:

[hotspur]

The peadogeddon episode still ranks as the best satire I’ve seen

That was Bass Eye.

[Guest]

The New Yorker is the worst for cartoons. Either ridiculously obvious or so convoluted it makes no sense even as a medium

Agree on the NewYorker, I had a physical sub until relatively recently, it's a nice magazine but convoluted is an apt description.

Although I like the Phoenix, I've always thought the cartoons of both the Spectator & NewStatesman are quite good.

[Raoul Duke III]

Agree on the NewYorker, I had a physical sub until relatively recently, it's a nice magazine but convoluted is an apt description.

Although I like the Phoenix, I've always thought the cartoons of both the Spectator & NewStatesman are quite good.

You can't bate some vintage Ralph Steadman gonzo art (illustrations for Hunter S Thompson's nuttiness)

[shrapnel]

Queen & Slim

strange road movie with 2 people who've just met being on the run together from the get go. Quite subdued characters all in all, and as it's a pretty long movie, it has a lot of quiet moments in what i imagine is a very frantic time, which works pretty well.

Enjoyed it although it took a bit of time to get into it, but can't rate it that highly either

5/10

[Goodluck2me]

That was Bass Eye.

Yes you’re right brass eye, similar cast I guess.

[DeadParrot]

That was Bass Eye.

Yes you’re right brass eye, similar cast I guess.

I'm not going to lie. The concept of a satirical current affairs show presented by anglers or fish tickled me greatly

[Solksjaer!]

I'm not going to lie. The concept of a satirical current affairs show presented by anglers or fish tickled me greatly

Similar 'cast.?

[ComradeCollie]

I'm not going to lie. The concept of a satirical current affairs show presented by anglers or fish tickled me greatly

[Guest]

Dick move but that’s the risk you take with these products, plenty of crying about stuff like this to come for all the Smarthome morons

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jan/23/sonos-to-deny-software-updates-to-owners-of-older-equipment?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Strewelpeter]

Dick move but that’s the risk you take with these products, plenty of crying about stuff like this to come for all the Smarthome morons
https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...e_iOSApp_Other

We’re extremely fucked by the fact that we build products that last a long time, and that listeners continue to enjoy them,” ... “In fact, 92% of the products we’ve ever shipped have not been replaced by newer models... Turns out our customers didn't have more money than sense after all

Fixed Their Quote

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Denny Crane]

Fixed Their Quote

I never got the fascination with Sonos. There were always better alternatives.

Did Sonos skip audio inputs? Can people not just get an Alexa Input and set-up a multi-room system?

[Strewelpeter]

I never got the fascination with Sonos. There were always better alternatives.

Did Sonos skip audio inputs? Can people not just get an Alexa Input and set-up a multi-room system?

Don't know about Alexa but you can do it with chromecast

[The Situation]

Amazing that despite the massive lead Liverpool have in the Prem, the most influential models still have City as the clear better side and they're going off shorter prices in comparable games and also shorter in UCL outright despite facing a tougher opponent in last 16.

Be an extremely tough sell convincing 99% of people who cant see beyond the glaring gap in the table that Liverpool may not be the best though

[Solksjaer!]

Amazing that despite the massive lead Liverpool have in the Prem, the most influential models still have City as the clear better side and they're going off shorter prices in comparable games and also shorter in UCL outright despite facing a tougher opponent in last 16.

Be an extremely tough sell convincing 99% of people who cant see beyond the glaring gap in the table that Liverpool may not be the best though

I'm convinced .

[premierstone]

Amazing that despite the massive lead Liverpool have in the Prem, the most influential models still have City as the clear better side and they're going off shorter prices in comparable games and also shorter in UCL outright despite facing a tougher opponent in last 16.



Be an extremely tough sell convincing 99% of people who cant see beyond the glaring gap in the table that Liverpool may not be the best though

Peak City is better than peak Liverpool, but peak City comes out about one every 6 games, Liverpool are at 90% plus all the time.

[The Situation]

Peak City is better than peak Liverpool, but peak City comes out about one every 6 games, Liverpool are at 90% plus all the time.

If that were true Liverpool would be rated far higher. That just your results based interpretation of what's happened this season.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[premierstone]

If that were true Liverpool would be rated far higher. That just your results based interpretation of what's happened this season.

What? We most be talking about two different things here, and I'm far too drunk to try and figure out which one of us is right.

[The Situation]

Might be more betting, including huge wads of Asian cash, on ManC in any given match? Maybe the relative prices are just incorporating that bias.

xG type models seem to be extremely influential last few years in determining starting price, look at any opening line on betfair and watch highly rated xG sides shorten or over performing ones lengthen as it gets closer to kick off, it's an unerring guide. The best algorithms are a bit more sophisticated but most have Liverpool massively overperforming this year. Like they've won ~95% of their leagues matches this season but went off 1.75(57%) against Wolves tonight which is far bigger than you'd intuitively expect a side of their dominance to be.

[Hectorjelly]

xG type models seem to be extremely influential last few years in determining starting price, look at any opening line on betfair and watch highly rated xG sides shorten or over performing ones lengthen as it gets closer to kick off, it's an unerring guide. The best algorithms are a bit more sophisticated but most have Liverpool massively overperforming this year. Like they've won ~95% of their leagues matches this season but went off 1.75(57%) against Wolves tonight which is far bigger than you'd intuitively expect a side of their dominance to be.

So what do you think is happening? They are experiencing hugely positive variance, or the xG stats could be improved?

[dobby]

xG is a load of nonsense. It might matter in a betting sense but means fuck all in a football sense. Expected goals dont win you games.

[ArmaniJeans]

xG is a load of nonsense. It might matter in a betting sense but means fuck all in a football sense. Expected goals dont win you games.

Yet you've mentioned the amount of (or lack of) 'shots on target' in games a few times over the years, so presumably you see some merit in it.
But as a stat it's far less useful than xG, which is at least trying to mathematically break down the worth of those shots that were on/off target.

[Opr]

Yet you've mentioned the amount of (or lack of) 'shots on target' in games a few times over the years, so presumably you see some merit in it.
But as a stat it's far less useful than xG, which is at least trying to mathematically break down the worth of those shots that were on/off-target.

Is the model based purely on this? From what I can gather it is doing Poisson distribution which is useful for situations where there are lots of trials and each trial has a relatively low probability of success. I presume in a match each chance is considered one and weighted accordingly. While obviously a significant metric in conjuction with others in a more sophisticated model but on its own it seems rather crude.

Opr

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[TheJiggaman]

xG is a load of nonsense. It might matter in a betting sense but means fuck all in a football sense. Expected goals dont win you games.

I actually don’t know where to start with the above comment.

xG isn’t expected to win you games. The most important reasoning for xG is for analysts of teams to review the chances of A) their own players and B) for scouting purposes.

xG is completely based on shot location, so it isn’t the be all and end all, but there’s always very interesting things come from it. (xS is derived from this too - xy of the shot and goalkeeper location at time of shot)

Can actually go into proper detail into it when I’m back from hols and have access to my laptop to screenshot stuff from work if people were interested.

[Guest]

Is the model based purely on this? From what I can gather it is doing Poisson distribution which is useful for situations where there are lots of trials and each trial has a relatively low probability of success. I presume in a match each chance is considered one and weighted accordingly. While obviously a significant metric in conjuction with others in a more sophisticated model but on its own it seems rather crude.

Opr

Poisson distributions are used in the event that variables are discrete but the cap isn't fixed ie goals in this case. It's how they differ from binomial which have a fixed number of events so airlines use them for overbooking policies for example.
Plane has 200 seats, what's the probability my plane will be overbooked if they book 220 seats with a probability of an 8% cancellation.

Poisson for soccer goals is:

(Avg^x)(e^-Avg)
--------- x! -----------

They use lambda to indicate average in the formula but it's simply average of the sample.

X is the number in the sample

X! is x factorial so sample size of five= 5x4x3x2x1

E is eulers constant.

I suspect like Situation said that some are more complex than simple poisson but this type of calculation is very easy to use.

[Guest]

Based upon 1 goal per 38.4 mins in 2018/19 season, Liverpool would have a probability of scoring the following for 0-10 goals in a random match via poisson

[careca]

You are all missing the main point- next year is our year