best hands for stealing with in LP?

[bustamoves]

another fairly standard question guys but its something that i do wonder about.


if everyone folds to you and we are in LP or say SB,

what are the best hands to push with to steal?

i often wonder is it better to steal with junky non ace hands rather than bad aces because
at least they can have better equity versus a bigger Ace hand that snapcalls us if we push with like say A4o?


ok i am aware of the concept of card removal so if u have an Ace some else is less likely but to what extent does this sway the decision?

also if everyone folds to you and u have junk you want to steal with, is it not more likely that the deck is more weighted with Aces or biggers hands after you since eveyone has snapfolded and you have junk also? again is this a real factor or an irrational fear?

[tylerdurden94]

Probably 1 of my biggest factors when it comes to stealing in late position is who is seated to your left.

Depending on who they are will make my decision on hand to push/steal with, fairly competent player I would reign in my hand range somewhat, somebody who you think is dreadful or just a push over I would probably be doing it with more frequency with nearly anything.

[Raoul Duke III]

better off not to look at your cards in this spot imo

[AndyFatBastard]

i often wonder is it better to steal with junky non ace hands rather than bad aces because
at least they can have better equity versus a bigger Ace hand that snapcalls us if we push with like say A4o?

No, it's not. If you're doing it right then the vast majority of the time you don't get called, so that's where all your equity is coming from. Remember you're still about 25% vs an ace with a better kicker when called, but you also dominate hands like KQ that are very much in your opponent's calling range.

[ikilldurrr1]

Stack sizes are are just as important when considering stealing

[doke]

Ace rag is a much better stealing hand than junk. Domination is not as big a deal as most people think: you still have almost 30% equity if you're unlucky enough to be dominated. That's still a lot better than shoving 52o and running into any one of the 55+ pairs. The great thing about ace rag is you're more or less never much worse than 30% if called. Low suited aces are great shoving hands: when you're very short these are plus Ev shoves even in early position.

[Laois Hammer]

warning, this turned into a bit of a long rant but for OP i think its worth reading

blind -v- blind against the right players w/ the right stacks any two cards is very powerful, your average joe soap isnt going to snap you off with Q9s for example.
So, not looking at the cards might help you get used to the concept alright.

i might aswel type out an extreme example

your average bog standard spot in a tourney
-v- Joe Soap

it folds around to you and joe soap in the blinds of 300/600 50

hero: 5,700 before blind is taken
joe: 6,445

for example say you shove 32o,
his range for calling can't combat this because it will be something standard enough like,
22+,A2s+,K9s+,A2o+,KTo+ (24% of hands and im being fair to him at that)

76% of the time you win whats in the middle 300 + 600 + (9*50) = 1350

24% of the time you have 28% equity against him,
you can work out your ev for this aswel
(your equity*what you win if called) - what you lose if called
5700 + 5700 + (7*50)
(.28*11750)-5700 = -2410 <<< 24% of the time you lose this.

then add both ev calculations,
(frequency you lose*-2410) + (frequency you win*1350) = your ev for shoving

(.24*-2410)+(.76*1350) = 448 - so everytime you ship 32o in this spot -v- this player you win this amount of chips.

so even something like 85s has way more equity, around 37%
(.37*11750)-5700 = -1353
(.24*-1353)+(.76*1350) = 701 chips

ace rag will start to feel like AA when you pick it up blind v blind with this stack

----------
-v- A Reg

To go further into it, the 32o might start to become closer to -EV against the wrong opponent, a reg that recognizes you shipping any 2 will snap you with wider,
maybe.. 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J9s+,A2o+,K2o+,Q9o+,JTo (40%)

now you win 1350 60% of the time

32o equity -v- that range - 30%

40% of the time you will have 30% to win 11750

(.30*11750)-5700 = -2175 <<< 40% of the time you lose this

(.40*-2175)+(.60*1350) = -60 chips , its only slightly -EV and this is against a 40% calling range.

to combat this, you'l have to do the tweaking of your range yourself.

GL

Cliffnotes

SPOILER

Ace rag will start to feel like AA