folding trips to flop shove

[Kie Diddy]

Hello. A hand from DTD £150 Grand Prix for which everyone - including the dealer (but that's another story) made fun of me for, not that I mind that...

Blinds 3k/6k with 6k button ante

Villain 1 seems competent and had played a number of interesting hands throughout the day where he took odd lines, value bet thin etc so was definately decent.

Villain 2 was just splashing around and his stack had yoyo'd as he was basically just playing over-aggro style that most at the table seemed to have adjusted to.

Villian 1 (220k) opens hijack for 14k
Vllain 2 (300k) call on button
Hero (250k) calls from BB with K3


FLOP: KK2

Hero checks
Villain 1 checks
Villan 2 bets 34k

Hero calls the 34k
Villain 1 shoves for 206k

Villain 2 fold
Hero folds

begin mocking...

[Dice75]

I can only really narrow his range down to a superior Kx protecting against a FD. Now its a paired board so the merits of this are something else.

Even if Villain has taken some weird line with AA or another PP shoving here is surely suicide and if its a bare FD, well....but based on your description only the FD seems likely.

I'm sure someone can put it through a solver.

How was shover's demeanour as you were thinking about it? Is there a shot clock in operation in D2D?

I know we have the K blocker and I know you said he took some strange lines (22 would constitute that here lol).

As played I think I possibly sigh fold and go back to work with 35bbs. Interesting one though as I assume its multi re-entry.

[Hectorjelly]

Snap call, you are way too short to fold trips, there are loads of hands that could take this line and you are beating.

[Kie Diddy]

I'm new to PIOSOLVER but did my best to input some sensible ranges in as similar a spot as I could create, and it has me calling K9+ and K2 100% of time, calling all worse kings an ever reducing proportion of time, with K3 being almost exactly 50/50 between call and fold, and only 30% call if I tighten Villain's range... (pat's self on back)

I'd be interested if a better user of solvers gets something similar??

Notably, based on my input PIO shoves nut flush only about 1% of time in villains shoes...

This was last hand before break and therefore last hand while re-entry was open, and no shot clock in use at this point...

I also had relatively recent history with villain where I hero called pot sized river bet with KK on a A hi run out (he had AQ, sigh) so my feeling was he'd be less inclined to slow play if he had AK,KQ etc...

[Kie Diddy]

Snap call, you are way too short to fold trips, there are loads of hands that could take this line and you are beating.

this was certainly the consensus at the table in terms of being too short to fold, it's 170 to call to win to approx. 450 and folding leaves us with an about average stack...so I don't think it's trivial...

I read a thing about looking for opportunities to make big folds every now and then this just felt like one of those times ...

[Hectorjelly]

You start the hand with around 40bbs, this is too short to consider folding trips in a raised pot. With that stack depth you never have the information required to fold, If you were against two tight players it would still be a call, but as described its a snap. I don't think the solver will be of much use given one player is so likely to be out of line.

[winkey66]

Why play K3 if ur gonna hit so hard an yet fold. Wot flop do u want bar KK3, KKK r 333 ? Even 33K U cud be behind pocket kings

[Kie Diddy]

Why play K3 if ur gonna hit so hard an yet fold. Wot flop do u want bar KK3, KKK r 333 ? Even 33K U cud be behind pocket kings

2001 just called, it wants its poker logic back...

[Arazi]

I think it’s a fold.

[Guest]

I'm new to PIOSOLVER but did my best to input some sensible ranges in as similar a spot as I could create, and it has me calling K9+ and K2 100% of time, calling all worse kings an ever reducing proportion of time, with K3 being almost exactly 50/50 between call and fold, and only 30% call if I tighten Villain's range... (pat's self on back)

I'd be interested if a better user of solvers gets something similar??

Notably, based on my input PIO shoves nut flush only about 1% of time in villains shoes...

This was last hand before break and therefore last hand while re-entry was open, and no shot clock in use at this point...

I also had relatively recent history with villain where I hero called pot sized river bet with KK on a A hi run out (he had AQ, sigh) so my feeling was he'd be less inclined to slow play if he had AK,KQ etc...

As HJ pointed out the application of PIOSolver in this spot may be skewed given how out of line the player may be, that said, it offers a good baseline if nothing else.

In game I find a fold very difficult tbh, perhaps sharing the ranges you used could be worthwhile as giving a villain a range may be not be as objective as we often think.

[premierstone]

I think it’s a fold.

So do I but there is no way in hell I fold it in real time but I certainly wouldnt be showing the fold, that just seems very exploitable for the rest of the table.

[Hectorjelly]

As HJ pointed out the application of PIOSolver in this spot may be skewed given how out of line the player may be, that said, it offers a good baseline if nothing else.

In game I find a fold very difficult tbh, perhaps sharing the ranges you used could be worthwhile as giving a villain a range may be not be as objective as we often think.

Actually just thinking about it again, the average "good" player in these tournaments is going to be super out of line anyway, never mind the bad one

[Guest]

Actually just thinking about it again, the average "good" player in these tournaments is going to be super out of line anyway, never mind the bad one

Absolutely, I mean imo nothing demonstrates that more than the 1% of time villain shows up with nut flush here. In a live tourney such as this I expect that to be at least 5x higher.

Admittedly I haven't used PIOSolver, I have used PokerSnowie but I'd be interested in the ranges applied none the less.
I'd also be curious how much value pros place in PIOSolvers for these type of tourneys or their equivalent online.

Also on a side note given the frequency of events and numbers playing seemingly increasing over the past couple of years it would be nice to see a few more hands posted up on the forum.
I had one from a few weeks ago I might throw up for some thoughts.

[Hectorjelly]

Yeah definitely do!

[BallymoreChris]

In these spots trust your instinct - when you think has it just fold.

his most likely hand is 22 imo, makes no sense playing a fd kx or bluff the way he did.

only mistake is showing the hand - you give way too much information to the rest of the table when you show folds like that.

interested to know what % of this time people think this guy was bluffing or had a fd?

[*PocketRockets*]

Personally I wouldn’t jam deuces in this spot, because if your opponent has a king he’s likely to see the hand through and if he gets there, he gets there. I’d probably just make it 90k or so.

With the timing of the hand, I’d say c-bet, flat, shove with fd. Snap call for me. There is only one king left and you can always suck out if behind.

[Arazi]

Personally I wouldn’t jam deuces in this spot, because if your opponent has a king he’s likely to see the hand through and if he gets there, he gets there. I’d probably just make it 90k or so.

With the timing of the hand, I’d say c-bet, flat, shove with fd. Snap call for me. There is only one king left and you can always suck out if behind.

Remember that from the villains point of view here two opponents have shown strength on a KK2 board, if he has 22 then it’s likely IMO that a K is in one of their hands.
If he has a FD then it’s also likely that a K is in one of their hands.

[*PocketRockets*]

I’m just saying if I have deuces I also don’t want to price my opponent out of chasing the flush.

[Nic]

very reasonable fold. If you run his x/r range through equilab, you're not doing v. well. Even if it includes big pocket pairs (it really shouldn't though). Most of the time you're drawing almost dead vs bigger king or 22, and the rest you are up against flush draw.

[Hectorjelly]

Against a worse case scenario where he is never bluffing and always has 22 or KT+ we have 21.5% equity

Add in just the nut flush draw and we have 40%

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...C+ak&s=generic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...%2As&s=generic

This is a live tournament in ireland so I think the above ranges are way off, but even against the second one we are doing better than breaking even. If you add in JJ+ we are 60%

[Kie Diddy]

Against a worse case scenario where he is never bluffing and always has 22 or KT+ we have 21.5% equity

Add in just the nut flush draw and we have 40%

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...C+ak&s=generic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...%2As&s=generic

This is a live tournament in ireland so I think the above ranges are way off, but even against the second one we are doing better than breaking even. If you add in JJ+ we are 60%

I take your point that his range could be wider than I think, but as played I don't see how he shows up with JJ/QQ type hands or random air balls other than very, very occasionally...

I think your second sim is probably about right, and is roughly what I gave him in PIO (ie. AA, 22, KTo+, K9s, all possible NFDs and FDs QT+) ... so I guess where we differ is thinking that calling a 30 bb shove because we are doing better than breaking even is a snap call ...especially when they are some very weak players at the table ready to punt...

[Kie Diddy]

Results for those interested:

SPOILER

Villain shows A6 for NFD

I think it's about 50/50 here between this and a better Kx and I still feel Ok about the fold; if hand had played out HU it becomes a very different spot so don't think i'm getting owned really

[Hectorjelly]

You have about a 5% edge against his range (ie you need 35% but you have 40%), and thats it he is shoving a reasonable range containing no out and out bluffs, and also if all hands are equally likely. He is definitely going to be more likely to slowplay flopped houses than flush draws, so its likely the real edge is higher. Also in this buyin level you will occasionally see crazy hands in all lines.

A friend of mine said he would fold because he beats no value hands - that's beside the point when the pot odds suggest its a profitable call anyway.

[Dice75]

May as well embellish this thread with another hand from Dusk Till Dawn

£330 game - Day 2

29 left - 17 paid

Blinds 3.5k/7k/7k
Average stack 400k

Hero (800k) opens MP to 15k with A8
Button (150k) calls
BB (850k) completes.

Flop Qx42

Playing at table approx 1 hour since start of Day 2 and pretty comfortable, chipping up gradually & constantly without having to play any big hands. Button seems the most competent at table, BB has amassed big stack on Day 1 and just tipping along Day 2.

BB donk leads for 30k.
Hero flats (thoughts?)
Button shoves 135k ish.

BB rips in his 800k ish

Hero?

[DeadParrot]

Seeing as it's you call and hit runner runner for the wheel

Prediction

SPOILER

Button: Bare Queen
BB gapped connectors Sooted (or Q2)

I initially was saying fold but kinda like a call.

[Nic]

May as well embellish this thread with another hand from Dusk Till Dawn

£330 game - Day 2

29 left - 17 paid

Blinds 3.5k/7k/7k
Average stack 400k

Hero (800k) opens MP to 15k with A8
Button (150k) calls
BB (850k) completes.

Flop Qx42

Playing at table approx 1 hour since start of Day 2 and pretty comfortable, chipping up gradually & constantly without having to play any big hands. Button seems the most competent at table, BB has amassed big stack on Day 1 and just tipping along Day 2.

BB donk leads for 30k.
Hero flats (thoughts?)
Button shoves 135k ish.

BB rips in his 800k ish

Hero?

Whilst reading through this I found myself wondering what the btn was doing flatting off a 21bb stack, then you went on to say he was competent, so he was probably trapping with kings.

Standard flat for you v the lead, then easy fold vs the BB reshove.

[Arazi]

Yeah, as played I’d agree with Nic that it’s an easy fold.
You need your Ace to be live for a call to be close to profitable and even if they were face up and all your outs were live I’d probably still fold.

I’d like to have seen how the BB was playing earlier, if they looked a certain type I’d prefer to advocate making it 95k.

[DeadParrot]

Whilst reading through this I found myself wondering what the btn was doing flatting off a 21bb stack, then you went on to say he was competent, so he was probably trapping with kings.

Standard flat for you v the lead, then easy fold vs the BB reshove.

BB overshove is a desire to close the betting.
Am I massively oversimplifying this as potential weakness?
happy to call off 100k (effectively) with a drawing hand (which we are ahead of) or weak pair (which we beat a lot) but doesn't want us in it at all?
I'm WAY out of practice so genuinely interested in knowing if my thinking is just dumb

[Guest]

BB overshove is a desire to close the betting.
Am I massively oversimplifying this as potential weakness?
happy to call off 100k (effectively) with a drawing hand (which we are ahead of) or weak pair (which we beat a lot) but doesn't want us in it at all?
I'm WAY out of practice so genuinely interested in knowing if my thinking is just dumb

You need approx 42% equity to make the call here. Shorty on btn you mentioned was relatively competent. His PF flatting range I suspect is relatively strong,
though it does probably (should) rule out 22 & 44, perhaps something like QJs+, KQs, KK, AA, maybe some KJss, J10ss but the latter would be loose at this stack depth.

If you feel BB nevers leads 22 & 44 then, we can probably eliminate them. I suspect to see BTN with a pretty nutted range to jam though in this spot
while BB can have a few SD/FD combos but you block a couple with As, suspect to see mostly 2 pair hands, pair + FD from bb.

I pretty sure though no calculator here but I suspect you don't have enough equity to make the call at 42%.

Perhaps the opponents are far wider but nut FD & 1 over is probably never in great shape here, if you feel BB never leads a made hand and a huge proportion of his
range is made up of weaker draws then maybe there's some merit to calling but I fold this spot all the time.

[dobby]

BB overshove is a desire to close the betting.
Am I massively oversimplifying this as potential weakness?
happy to call off 100k (effectively) with a drawing hand (which we are ahead of) or weak pair (which we beat a lot) but doesn't want us in it at all?
I'm WAY out of practice so genuinely interested in knowing if my thinking is just dumb

You're happy to get 800k in, when the BB has you covered with just the FD and a possible over card??

I'd expect BB to show up with AQ, KQ here quite often. Possibly 22 or 44 but less likely imo.

I'm happy to just call the 135k from BTN but fold to a BB shove and crack on.

[Nic]

BB overshove is a desire to close the betting.
Am I massively oversimplifying this as potential weakness?
happy to call off 100k (effectively) with a drawing hand (which we are ahead of) or weak pair (which we beat a lot) but doesn't want us in it at all?
I'm WAY out of practice so genuinely interested in knowing if my thinking is just dumb

The BB lead, then overshove looks to me like he has the best hand now but is afraid of the flush draw. He probably has top and bottom or small set. He has just shipped in 800k which is well over 100 BBs.

Unlike a cash game, hero needs to air on the side of preserving his stack in a tourney, rather than lean towards CALLING a massive shove of over 100bbs when the EV of that call is close enough to neutral ( even if you are getting a small % of positive long term equity).

I haven't ran the numbers but A8c is not performing too well vs the two ranges. It's close to neutral / slightly profitable I'd say vs the 2 villain's ranges after the large side pot etc is worked out. (BTN should have KK or similar, maybe set QQQ in main smaller pot)

to reiterate, you should try avoid CALLING off a large number of BBs for your tourney life even if it's a marginally profitable call in terms of chip EV. It differs to cash games in this way, where in a cash game if you have 40% equity and are getting odds over 6/4, it's a call.

[Dice75]

Meant to wrap this up earlier.

In game your first reaction is call, i gots NF draw (funny enough the first two people i told the hand to say the same before they actually think about the hand). D2D operates a shot clock so after using a 30 sec card so as not make a rash decision and taking the minute to try assign hands/ranges i sigh folded.

Button had 22 for a set & BB had Q7 for a pair & FD.

These were more or less as i expected though couldn't be sure which way around they were.

J rolled off on turn and BB went on to ship tourney.

[Joed1580]

He shoved 200 into a 110k pot wow interesting spot has he been shoving much a bet and a flat is strength so it’s leans towards a k x I think
AA with the c flats all day it’s a natural reaction of any player who hasn’t been getting out of line final taught he’s protecting his hand with a k