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    MTT Sat

    6 left, top 5 pays: 1150e (IO entry) and 6th pays 80 euro.

    Stacks are as follows

    Hero SB: 30k
    BB: 31.2k
    UTG:39.8k
    MP:80k
    LP: 73k
    Button: 73k

    Blinds 2k-4k running ante of 400. Action is folded around to us on the small blind with 35s, whats our action? Background we have very solid TAG image from last few orbits, we have dropped from 2 of 6 by being blinded down. BB is also very TAG.

    Ive tried running it through icmizer but I just needed confirmation/thoughts on the spot
    Last edited by Irisheman; 24-11-15, 21:37.

    #2
    Fold

    Comment


      #3
      Pretty sure its a shove? Icmiser says shove any two yes? If BB is calling off lighter or tighter than nash we adjust our ranges correspondingly.

      Comment


        #4
        doke would be the man to answer this.
        i,d say its a shove if the bb is any way decent. can we shove any 2 here v certain opponents?
        The smarter you play the luckier you'll be
        MTT Calender 2015

        Comment


          #5
          Yeah I just needed confirmation I was inputting correctly in icmizer, it gave me shove any two. Realtime I shoved as well and was eventually called off by AKo

          Are we always shoving any 2 here? The BB was very tight tbh he seemed to consider passing AK momentarily

          Comment


            #6
            Even in theory when it's supposed to be an Any 2 shove, it's very heavily dependant on the calling range. ICMizer will assume the villain calls perfectly, but this is almost never the case. I ran the spot through HRC, and it says everyone other than UTG should be shoving any 2. That's all well and good, but if I'm utg+1 with 80k I'm not going to have confidence that the cutoff and button will fold aces (as they're supposed to) if I shove, and even less confidence the small blind will fold tens and AKs (which he's supposed to) and the BB eights and AK.

            The Nash solution has you shoving any 2, and the BB only calling 9.8%, 66+ A9s+ ATo+ KJs+. If you think he's calling wider (say 21.7%, 55+ A3s+ A5o+ K8s+ KTo+ QTs+ QJo) it's no longer any two for you (it's 89.1%, 22+ Tx+ 92s+ 95o+ 82s+ 84o+ 72s+ 74o+ 62s+ 63o+ 52s+ 53o+ 42s+ 32s ). He has to be calling even wider (25%) for shoving 53s to become unprofitable.
            My poker blog - Doking around in cyberspace

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Irisheman View Post
              6 left, top 5 pays: 1150e (IO entry) and 6th pays 80 euro.

              Stacks are as follows

              Hero SB: 30k
              BB: 31.2k
              UTG:39.8k
              MP:80k
              LP: 73k
              Button: 73k

              Blinds 2k-4k running ante of 400. Action is folded around to us on the small blind with 35s, whats our action? Background we have very solid TAG image from last few orbits, we have dropped from 2 of 6 by being blinded down. BB is also very TAG.

              Ive tried running it through icmizer but I just needed confirmation/thoughts on the spot
              Hands like these and the responses from good players make being a forum member worthwhile. Very interesting hand and my first response is Shove.

              Comment


                #8
                Thanks for the comments lads

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Irisheman View Post
                  Are we always shoving any 2 here? The BB was very tight tbh he seemed to consider passing AK momentarily
                  i'm surprised given the other stacks it was folded around to you and recon you need to take this opportunity, the fact he may have folded AK shows how tight his calling range is, if you fold here the bb will have 39.6k and you 31.2k you get the shove through which should be 90%+ v him your stack is 38.4k and hes on 31.2k.
                  would like to know if its ok to fold some really bad hands here v this oppenent or if this would be a mistake. i've a feeling we should be shoving 100% in this exact spot though
                  Last edited by Nuttkickker; 26-11-15, 02:04.
                  The smarter you play the luckier you'll be
                  MTT Calender 2015

                  Comment


                    #10
                    All considered we gotta push any two in this spot, bearing in mind how tight the guy is and also the Nash equilibrium solution


                    Originally posted by Nuttkickker View Post
                    i'm surprised given the other stacks it was folded around to you and recon you need to take this opportunity, the fact he may have folded AK shows how tight his calling range is, if you fold here the bb will have 39.6k and you 31.2k if you get the shove through which should be 90%+ v him your stack is 38.4k and hes on 31.2k.
                    would like to know if its ok to fold some really bad hands here v this oppenent or if this would be a mistake. i've a feeling we should be shoving 100% in this exact spot though

                    Comment


                      #11
                      I think the 'shove any two' is good in the context of a sit an go that you are properly bankrolled for. Here (while admittedly making a judgment on your bankroll), I think the prize is too valuable to be that 'general' about it.

                      Add to that line of thinking that you have 4 or 5 more hands before you have to pay a BB again, and that the current bb and utg are in equally borderline positions, and I would be inclined (instinctively rather than mathematically) to push maybe top 50% only - though the closer it gets to my bb again the more I would be willing to widen that. The other factor i would take into consideration over the next 4 or 5 hands is what the other low stacks do - i.e. the ideal situation for you isn't that you pick a hand to run with that holds/doubles (i.e. you assume the risk), but rather that one or more of the others assumes the risk and either knocks themselves out or reduces their stack to below yours.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Bluezar View Post
                        Hands like these and the responses from good players make being a forum member worthwhile.
                        Seconded.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Lplated View Post
                          I think the 'shove any two' is good in the context of a sit an go that you are properly bankrolled for. Here (while admittedly making a judgment on your bankroll), I think the prize is too valuable to be that 'general' about it.

                          Add to that line of thinking that you have 4 or 5 more hands before you have to pay a BB again, and that the current bb and utg are in equally borderline positions, and I would be inclined (instinctively rather than mathematically) to push maybe top 50% only - though the closer it gets to my bb again the more I would be willing to widen that. The other factor i would take into consideration over the next 4 or 5 hands is what the other low stacks do - i.e. the ideal situation for you isn't that you pick a hand to run with that holds/doubles (i.e. you assume the risk), but rather that one or more of the others assumes the risk and either knocks themselves out or reduces their stack to below yours.
                          No offence but this is total 'feel' player talk. He's already made the decision to reg the sat regardless of whether he should or not given his roll, now that he's in this position he needs to maximise the % of the time he wins a seat(ie folding this spot doesn't decrease his variance!) and he achieves this by shoving this hand unless BB is a total spewbag, which from past playing history he has not been according to op.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by EVinfiinity View Post
                            No offence but this is total 'feel' player talk. He's already made the decision to reg the sat regardless of whether he should or not given his roll, now that he's in this position he needs to maximise the % of the time he wins a seat(ie folding this spot doesn't decrease his variance!) and he achieves this by shoving this hand unless BB is a total spewbag, which from past playing history he has not been according to op.
                            No offence taken.
                            But.
                            It's not the the cost of the sat, but rather the value to him of winning a ticket.
                            The concept of maximising the % of time he wins (and its implication, i.e. the use of icm maximisers) were developed for, and work optimally for, situations where the player plays a large number of similar type games.

                            Trying to say, that applying a 'general' concept in a 'particular' situation may sometimes not be the right thing to do, and here the factors that may (imo) make it not right include that there are three players with similar difficulties in terms of options, and that the value of winning is quite high (though that has to be measured against bankroll and/or buy-in).

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Fair point. But in this particular spot and with IO entry already secured I'm shoving. The spot does raise some interesting points in relation to the BB calling range I think, he took about a minute to call with AKo

                              Doke's point in relation to when shoving 35s loses profitability vs his calling ranges is very interesting

                              Originally posted by Lplated View Post
                              No offence taken.
                              But.
                              It's not the the cost of the sat, but rather the value to him of winning a ticket.
                              The concept of maximising the % of time he wins (and its implication, i.e. the use of icm maximisers) were developed for, and work optimally for, situations where the player plays a large number of similar type games.

                              Trying to say, that applying a 'general' concept in a 'particular' situation may sometimes not be the right thing to do, and here the factors that may (imo) make it not right include that there are three players with similar difficulties in terms of options, and that the value of winning is quite high (though that has to be measured against bankroll and/or buy-in).

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by Irisheman View Post
                                ... with IO entry already secured I'm shoving...
                                So if you hadn't already secured a spot would you have acted differently? Or would you have used a different set of considerations?

                                If so, I think it supports my point that when the outcome is large relative to bankroll or general experience or how often one is in a similar position THEN the question isn't simply an ICM optimize one.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  It seems counter intuitive but shoving here, although it directly increases our chances of being knocked out immediately, also increases our chances of getting a package. So we should shove regardless of bankroll considerations

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Lplated View Post
                                    So if you hadn't already secured a spot would you have acted differently? Or would you have used a different set of considerations?

                                    If so, I think it supports my point that when the outcome is large relative to bankroll or general experience or how often one is in a similar position THEN the question isn't simply an ICM optimize one.
                                    Being honest if I hadn't a ticket already secured I'm still shoving 35s. What I'm saying is I could see how it might effect someone in different circumstances and I recognise the point your making
                                    Last edited by Irisheman; 26-11-15, 14:38.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                                      It seems counter intuitive but shoving here, although it directly increases our chances of being knocked out immediately, also increases our chances of getting a package. So we should shove regardless of bankroll considerations
                                      My point exactly although said much better!

                                      Comment

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