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    Tournament Hand

    $500 ME Sat. I just would like a sanity check here as I am not sure if I am lamenting running into it or this is genuinely bad so like some feedback.

    Antes in play. Big stack opens to 2.2 from HiJack. I call 66 in the SB with 31 BB. Both players cover. They are two winning players. The big stack in the BB squeezes to 10. Both of these guys have been quite active.

    Original raiser folds and I stuff it. Run into AA. My thinking when I completed the SB was that he would squeeze this spot liberally and if he raised the plan was always to stuff it. Thinking about it more I am not sure if he doesn't just complete with his playable stuff which takes a huge amount of trash out of his range I want to be squeezing.

    It is a slow enough structure so there is still plenty of play left if I fold.

    I am pretty terrible in his 30-50bb range. Overthinking it or terrible?
    Last edited by Opr; 28-07-20, 12:32.

    #2
    I wouldn’t say it was terrible, just “gambly”.

    id rather flat then bluff 4b jam with raggy suited aces. You’re so rarely in that good shape here with 6s I think just throw them for over 30bbs.

    Comment


      #3
      Well, I am 100% never flatting. I am going to have a pot size bet left OOP to a player that C-bets range on which I can only really ever call if I hit a miracle.

      Comment


        #4
        This is against his 3-bet value calling range.

        ------------equity -----win ------tie --------
        Hand 0: 62.702% 62.51% 00.19% 398171904 1228050.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
        Hand 1: 37.298% 37.10% 00.19% 236349084 1228050.00 { 66 }

        It doesn't seem like I need much of a bluffing component to make the shove profitable. I am just not sure how much of his range that component makes up in this spot.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by *PocketRockets* View Post
          I wouldn’t say it was terrible, just “gambly”.

          id rather flat then bluff 4b jam with raggy suited aces. You’re so rarely in that good shape here with 6s I think just throw them for over 30bbs.
          I'm no expert for sure but to me it's a snap fold with 6s for sure. Best you can expect is a flip against two overs and a lot of the time you're in a world of hurt which you were this time. There are times when you have no option but to get it in as a flip. I personally don't think that was necessary here particularly given your stack size. Doke is the man to ask really. He wrote the book on it. Don't think he posts here anymore but I know he's on twitter and answers questions like yours all the time. Good luck in the remaining events Opr.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by limpwhacker View Post

            I'm no expert for sure but to me it's a snap fold with 6s for sure. Best you can expect is a flip against two overs and a lot of the time you're in a world of hurt which you were this time. There are times when you have no option but to get it in as a flip. I personally don't think that was necessary here particularly given your stack size. Doke is the man to ask really. He wrote the book on it. Don't think he posts here anymore but I know he's on twitter and answers questions like yours all the time. Good luck in the remaining events Opr.
            From what I understand though the stack protection thing in sats isn't at all relevant here. It becomes a factor when you get towards 50% of the chip count to getting a ticket. Up to that point you are just playing normal poker and taking spots where you can find them. I am pretty sure Doke would not be a fan as he was never a fan of taking marginal edge spots back in the day. I don't have an edge in this field though unless it contains lots of qualifiers so if I think the spot is even marginally +EV I am taking it.
            Last edited by Opr; 28-07-20, 14:51.

            Comment


              #7
              Just to say LW I am not hoping to get it in as a flip. I am hoping he has folds here. If he doesn't then it is terrible. I am 37% against his calling range. If he 3bets other overs that he calls off to the Jam that only increases my flipping percentage. So after that, it is what is his range construction like in this spot.

              I am jamming 29 to win 65. So I need 44% to break even on the play. If he has any folds at all I win monies.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Opr View Post
                Just to say LW I am not hoping to get it in as a flip. I am hoping he has folds here. If he doesn't then it is terrible. I am 37% against his calling range. If he 3bets other overs that he calls off to the Jam that only increases my flipping percentage. So after that, it is what is his range construction like in this spot.

                I am jamming 29 to win 65. So I need 44% to break even on the play. If he has any folds at all I win monies.
                I honestly think you're over thinking the hand here OPR. It's a fold. In any tournament format probably, more so in a sat. He's been active fair enough. But has he shown down much in the way of garbage? If he has you covered he's either been lucky or played well so far. His 3b size is what it should be with all value and bluffs. I've always been of the opinion that even the best have less bluffs in their range in decent sats than in a standard tournament. I think your range construction above is pretty close but I don't think there's as many hands that will fold outside of that as you might think there is. 30bb is loads. Loads more than I usually have tbf! Fold and move on.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Fair enough. I think I am trying to justify it here to make it alright in my head. Although I have convinced myself it wasn't quite as bad as I first thought afterward.

                  The other hand of note from the Sat is probably more interesting only from the Villains perspective. I think everything in the hands from me is pretty standard.

                  I raise UTG+1 with KhJh. Villain calls out of the SB. He continues for a 1/3 size pot bet from me on a 2h7c7h. Turn is a 4h with 1,100 in the pot. I bet half pot and he raises to 1600. I call. The river is a Jc and he checks to me. Pot is ~4400 on the river. I bet around 60% and he just calls with Ah10h.

                  I was glad I settled on 60% as it did go through my head that I might induce another c/r bluff on the river if I bet quite small. At the time I just thought he had weaker flushes more in his range that it targeted better.

                  https://ibb.co/MGyh0RG
                  Last edited by Opr; 28-07-20, 21:27.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Opr View Post
                    Fair enough. I think I am trying to justify it here to make it alright in my head. Although I have convinced myself it wasn't quite as bad as I first thought afterward.

                    The other hand of note from the Sat is probably more interesting only from the Villains perspective. I think everything in the hands from me is pretty standard.

                    I raise UTG+1 with KhJh. Villain calls out of the SB. He continues for a 1/3 size pot bet from me on a 2h7c7h. Turn is a 4h with 1,100 in the pot. I bet half pot and he raises to 1600. I call. The river is a Jc and he checks to me. Pot is ~4400 on the river. I bet around 60% and he just calls with Ah10h.

                    I was glad I settled on 60% as it did go through my head that I might induce another c/r bluff on the river if I bet quite small. At the time I just thought he had weaker flushes more in his range that it targeted better.

                    https://ibb.co/MGyh0RG
                    You're right. This hand is a lot more interesting. Villain has mutbs for me. Are you raising 22/44 utg? Have you been that splashy? Also, you're nearly always checking behind 22. Only hand that's beating him here is JJ. If I'm him, I've played it well so far and I'm ripping the river. From your pov as played it's nearly a win. What do you do if he's put you to it on river? I guess that's in his thought process if he's very good. Like, what do you call that he's beating? Possibly exactly what you have but not a lot else if you're competent.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Yes, I have all pocket pairs in range with effective 100bb stacks UTG+1. I haven't been splashy but I have tripped barrelled in an earlier hand and needled the guy a little on the river about his snap check calls on previous streets and fold on the river. I got there on the river but didn't show it down. We have been chatting between the table a little about the previous weeks Sat so he probably thinks I am somewhat competent given this is my second week playing the Sat.

                      On what happens if he shoves. I don't know in-game if I find a fold. I think I should fold given my sizing on the river even with my holding to a Jam. He is never shoving worse for value. So I have a bluff catcher at that point.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Just on pocket pairs themselves. I think they are an interesting question in tournaments. The general thinking in cash games back in the day used to be that you need about 15/1 to BE on calling 3bets with PP's. In tournaments, I am often calling with worse early doors knowing I am taking the worst of it in that particular hand. The implied odds for me go beyond the hand itself in tournaments. In cash games, it is just a mathematical decision based on if it is +EV in a vacuum in that hand. In tournaments, I am factoring in the added value of having a big stack early in a tournament against losing say 10% of my stack. I think the upside versus the downside here in tournaments is worth it but it is just a conclusion I have come to and no idea if it's correct.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Opr View Post
                          Well, I am 100% never flatting. I am going to have a pot size bet left OOP to a player that C-bets range on which I can only really ever call if I hit a miracle.
                          No I didn’t mean flat the 10bbs, I just mean I’d rather take your line with a suited raggy ace than a small pocket pair, flat the original raise, then jam when he’s 3bet. Your ace blocks much more of his calling range than the 6s, and as you say you want a fold from pretty much his entire range when you shove.

                          As you say flatting is out the question after the 3bet so I like a fold.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            His range will be wider when a late position raise and just a call in the SB (even a raise from the SB), assuming he is good. At the same time I think I'd just fold 66 here instead of a 30bb shove. Really I guess this is just a math thing based on ranges but I don't feel the need to shove here.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Opr View Post
                              I am jamming 29 to win 65. So I need 44% to break even on the play. If he has any folds at all I win monies.
                              You don't have 44% though. So folding has to first make up that deficit before you are +monies.

                              The difference between lose/win the shove is the small bets from HJ and you. About 5bbs. (29 vrs 34BB). And a fold only win 12.

                              Assuming you are 2/1 dog when called, means the shove loses 5BB. So the fold must need to be 40%+ successful to break even. And every 5% adds 1bb.
                              So 50% success picks up 2bbs, marginally profitable with a high RoR.

                              Comment

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