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    Run it twice???

    Playing omaha cash last night and we both got it all in on the turn.
    The board is 2c 6h 8s 9h
    Cant remember exactly as it was very late after a long session but basically i have 7 10 blank blank with no redraws.
    My opponent has 7 10 also but with jh qh. So he the nuts on the turn also but has flush draw and plenty more outs for the higher straight.

    He offers me to run it twice. After a long time i decide i only want to run it once and try dodge his outs. it worked out as we both split but just wondering what was the right thing to do? what would other people do?

    #2
    If you like variance run it once, if you don't like most normal people run it twice. It dosn't change the odds at all so it makes no difference long story short.
    They will be like WTF how does he always have the top of his range, and they will be saying that when you show up with like nine's - Jimmy Fricke
    Nine's are the top of my range - Shaun Deeb

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      #3
      Running it twice here would be lunacy surely?

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by bohsman View Post
        Running it twice here would be lunacy surely?
        not really if he misses the 1st time and hits the second time its a chop.
        but if u run it once and he hits then ur sick basicly my logic for running it twice would be to insure u had the best possible chance of getting ur half of the pot.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Donk Magnet View Post
          not really if he misses the 1st time and hits the second time its a chop.
          but if u run it once and he hits then ur sick basicly my logic for running it twice would be to insure u had the best possible chance of getting ur half of the pot.
          If he misses the first and hits the second you get quartered.

          You're on a negative freeroll you can never win all of the pot so just run it once and hope to win half. The more times you run it the less of the pot you are likely to win.

          Edit: Last sentence isn't correct but running it twice is suicidal. Run it 1 or 3 times
          Last edited by sligoboi; 27-07-11, 21:15.
          Pining for Wa'erford

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Daragh999 View Post
            If you like variance run it once, if you don't like most normal people run it twice.
            Don't agree with this tbh.
            X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
            Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

            $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

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              #7
              Originally posted by Sometime Happy Dude View Post
              Don't agree with this tbh.
              You don't agree with logical maths? The times you get quatered are offset by the times you don't get scooped equally so in the long run it dosn't make a difference, your in a -ev spot and your ev will always run out to what it should (a negative result) regardless of how many times you run it.
              In this spot personally i would only run it once purely cause getting quatered would tilt me so much but not because there is any mathamatical edge to be gained.
              Last edited by Daragh999; 27-07-11, 21:25. Reason: my english is awful
              They will be like WTF how does he always have the top of his range, and they will be saying that when you show up with like nine's - Jimmy Fricke
              Nine's are the top of my range - Shaun Deeb

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Daragh999 View Post
                You don't agree with logical maths? The times you get quatered are offset by the times you get scooped equally so in the long run it dosn't make a difference, your in a -ev spot and your ev will always run out to what it should (a negative result) regardless of how many times you run it.
                In this spot personally i would only run it once purely cause getting quatered would tilt me so much but not because there is any mathamatical edge to be gained.
                You should be reducing variance when you are a favourite and increasing it when you are an underdog.

                ie you'd be better off going red or black on roulette once for 1000$ than doing 1000 $1 spins, on the other hand if I gave you 5/1 on a cointoss you should be looking to spread it out over as many tosses as possible.

                Comment


                  #9
                  I'm with Bohsman. I've run many simulations by dealing out the cards manually (as that's the only way to get a *true* representative sample of what would happen) and it is almost always incorrect to run it twice in this spot. Running it once or 5 times is the most EV.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by bohsman View Post
                    You should be reducing variance when you are a favourite and increasing it when you are an underdog.

                    ie you'd be better off going red or black on roulette once for 1000$ than doing 1000 $1 spins, on the other hand if I gave you 5/1 on a cointoss you should be looking to spread it out over as many tosses as possible.
                    Both examples you give though it dosn't matter in the longrun, your expected value regardless of spinning the wheel once with €1000 or 1000 times with €1, your expected value is around -€30. Watch any episode on HSP and you see them running it twice regardless of whether there ahead or behind all the time.

                    There was a thread a year or maybe longer ago about it on 2+2 and a guy proved it dosn't matter on it.
                    Last edited by Daragh999; 27-07-11, 21:42.
                    They will be like WTF how does he always have the top of his range, and they will be saying that when you show up with like nine's - Jimmy Fricke
                    Nine's are the top of my range - Shaun Deeb

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Doesnt matter how many times you run it. With the roulette/coin flip example, it still doesn't matter. If u were offered 5-1 on a 50-50 coin flip, would you rather bet €1000 to win a potential profit of €5000 or run 100000 flips and almost guarantee yourself a profit of €2000? it doesn't really matter, it just depends how much variance u want.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                        I'm with Bohsman. I've run many simulations by dealing out the cards manually (as that's the only way to get a *true* representative sample of what would happen) and it is almost always incorrect to run it twice in this spot. Running it once or 5 times is the most EV.
                        Running it twice makes no difference, none at all. The more times you run it, the less likely it is to diverge from the EV, but the still averages to the same EV.
                        The last sentence is completely wrong. Running it once, twice or five times doesn't change the EV. The EV can't ever change. Running it once increases his chances of hitting his max payout (in this case 1/2 the pot) but this is exactly offset by increasing his chances of hitting the min payout, $0.

                        The easiest way is to explain it with examples.
                        Say the guys has 12 re-draw outs, and there are 40 cards left. 30% of the time he will hit, 70% you chop. Your EV is 35% (.5 of 70%)

                        If he runs it twice. He will get scooped 9% (30% x 30%), chop 49% (70% x 70%) and quartered 42% (30% x 70% x 2). What's his EV here...35% [(.5 x 49%)+(.25 x 42%)]

                        You could continue the above for 3, 4, 5 times etc. Right up until you run it 40 times and you each get paid your exact EV.
                        The more times you run it, the less times he scoops.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Jesus Mellor, I didn't expect a reg to take my post seriously

                          Comment


                            #14
                            why not just do a deal on turn where u get x amount back each and run it once. its the same thing really.
                            http://www.sitnpoker.com/?amigosid=18

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                              Jesus Mellor, I didn't expect a reg to take my post seriously
                              Ah I was explaining it for the OP or the guys who didn't get it.
                              All the BBV regs are going to know your too smart to believe a gem like 1 or 5 times is the best

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Thanks

                                Thanks for all the replies.
                                Well i decided to run it once as i said. I'm happy i did i halved the pot which was my best possible outcome. It would have been sick to only win a quarter of the pot thats what i didnt want, but then again a quarter is better than nothing.

                                Another question: Do you think my opponent was right or wrong to offer to run it twice?

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  It doesn't matter to him either. There's no right and wrong here, it's personal preference

                                  TBH I'd happily do an EV chop every time I was all-in. Would stop the f'ing ridiculous 60 buy-in below EV swings that make me want to punch babies.
                                  “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.” - Bertrand Russell

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    The problem with running it twice when your a dog is if you win the first one your % of winning the second is lowered. So I don't think your calcs there mellor were considering that. for example you only have one out, you bink the first your drawing dead on the second.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      That still doesn't change the EV of the whole system.
                                      “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.” - Bertrand Russell

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        But surely your ev is the same either way,? You have selected how many times u want to run it before u run the first one so i dont think this matters.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          oh ye, of course. Just don't have as high a maximum return I guess, but the same EV. I just hate the idea of binking the first and drawing dead on the second.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Really? Pretty good result when you get it in with 2% equity imo!
                                            “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.” - Bertrand Russell

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by smoothcall View Post
                                              oh ye, of course. Just don't have as high a maximum return I guess, but the same EV. I just hate the idea of binking the first and drawing dead on the second.
                                              Not going to do the maths as I'm on the phone, but while it's true you could be drawing dead on the second run if you bonk the first, for all the times you don't win the first run there is one less losing card in the second run, and as a result the EV is the same if you run it once or 6 times. Simply personal preference.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Yeah, it can be a bit sickening to bink and have 3 draws at zero loots

                                                But on the other side, if i'm drawing to only one out, i'd rather 4 shots at 1/4 of a big pot to keep playing

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Daragh999 View Post
                                                  You don't agree with logical maths? The times you get quatered are offset by the times you don't get scooped equally so in the long run it dosn't make a difference, your in a -ev spot and your ev will always run out to what it should (a negative result) regardless of how many times you run it.
                                                  In this spot personally i would only run it once purely cause getting quatered would tilt me so much but not because there is any mathamatical edge to be gained.
                                                  I am not denying that if it is run many many times the ev will eventually run out the same.
                                                  That's not in question, the if is the variable - whether it will be run out many many times.

                                                  What if I get it all in with the best of it against the table donkey?
                                                  I'm going to run it once and hope to win all his loot. I'm not going to run it 5 times and take 60% of the pot and have him steam and donk off the rest of his money on the next hand to the person beside me, possibly stand up and leave never to be seen again.
                                                  X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                                  Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                                  $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

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                                                    #26
                                                    ^^^ EV is all that matters at the end of the day, not how much money you make from any specific sitiuation. The point of poker is to make the correct decisions more than the guy sitting across from you, not to win money. Money follows the person who is playing better.
                                                    They will be like WTF how does he always have the top of his range, and they will be saying that when you show up with like nine's - Jimmy Fricke
                                                    Nine's are the top of my range - Shaun Deeb

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      This logic is backwards. You would want to bust a better player than you or a tough player that was to your left, because any money returned to them will put you in -EV situations in the future. With the donkey it doesn't matter so much if variance turns in his favour because you will have more +EV spots to take is money in future hands.
                                                      “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.” - Bertrand Russell

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        I prefer to just run it once and let it go, but I will run it twice if it makes the fish happy no problem. If the other guy is all in and wants to run it once twice or three times, I'll let him do it. Some guys don't like it if you refuse them to run it more than once.

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Daragh999 View Post
                                                          ^^^ EV is all that matters at the end of the day, not how much money you make from any specific sitiuation. The point of poker is to make the correct decisions more than the guy sitting across from you, not to win money. Money follows the person who is playing better.
                                                          The point of poker is to win money, making correct decisions is the best tactic.
                                                          Ev is all that matters but comparing roulette spins to a poker table full of players doesn't wash, it is not the same. It's not pure like a roulette wheel, there are far more variables involved.
                                                          If I agreed to play a billion hands heads up against some donkey and assuming that his play would never be altered by our willingness to run it multiple or the option to do so, then sure, then it would be the same.


                                                          Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
                                                          This logic is backwards. You would want to bust a better player than you or a tough player that was to your left, because any money returned to them will put you in -EV situations in the future.
                                                          It's a cash game?! A tough player will just top up or reload. It's not like you can run it multiple times in a tournament.

                                                          Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
                                                          With the donkey it doesn't matter so much if variance turns in his favour because you will have more +EV spots to take is money in future hands.
                                                          You'll have more +ev spots to take money as will up to 7 or 8 other people at the table.
                                                          X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                                          Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                                          $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Would have thought if you were making different decisions with fish or good players you would run it one time v good players and more than once v fish. Since the fish are more likely to lose it in the future anyway.

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Sometime Happy Dude View Post



                                                              It's a cash game?! A tough player will just top up or reload. It's not like you can run it multiple times in a tournament.
                                                              True but just saying. We don't know if either of them will or won't reload. Just making the point that beating the good player favours us if they both quit with the same frequency.

                                                              You'll have more +ev spots to take money as will up to 7 or 8 other people at the table.
                                                              That doesn't matter. Once the money goes in your EV is set and can't be changed. The best utility of the variance is in the simple fact that your EV at the table in future hands is higher if the donk is going to be there and so it is in your interest that variance works in his favour. That everyone else's EV is also increased is irrelevant to the argument.
                                                              Last edited by zuutroy; 28-07-11, 11:09.
                                                              “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.” - Bertrand Russell

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                how the idea that running it more than once is player dependent is lost on me

                                                                the play is over!

                                                                its now just a case of(as it has already been said) you can cope with varience.

                                                                in the long term running it more than once just just reduces the swings both UP and DOWN..therefore in the longterm if makes no diff, its just a case of how well you manage the inbetween!


                                                                also i find it a sign of scared money when people ask to run it twice, therefore i always say no!!

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Well I have to admit I'm as confused as fcuk by this thread, anyway running it more than once is for girls IMO.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
                                                                    Just making the point that beating the good player favours us if they both quit with the same frequency.
                                                                    They won't.



                                                                    Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
                                                                    That doesn't matter. Once the money goes in your EV is set and can't be changed.
                                                                    Within that hand itself, of course, not denying it.

                                                                    Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
                                                                    The best utility of the variance is in the simple fact that your EV at the table in future hands is higher if the donk is going to be there and so it is in your interest that variance works in his favour. That everyone else's EV is also increased is irrelevant to the argument.
                                                                    Him not being there because I busted him > Him still being there because we ran it a few times and he got half his stack back and churned it off on someone else 3 mins later.

                                                                    Originally posted by ruzzer View Post


                                                                    the play is over!
                                                                    That hand is over, yes. A roulette wheel isn't affected by previous spins, it doesn't have a memory, it doesn't experience emotions, it doesn't tilt and it doesn't learn. Players do.
                                                                    A roulette wheel also won't play differently because it knows you agree to spin it twice rather than once for your loot.


                                                                    Originally posted by ruzzer View Post
                                                                    its now just a case of(as it has already been said) you can cope with varience.
                                                                    Well I guess the point is that in live poker, I don't expect to ever play enough hands to have that variance balance itself out properly, nor do I expect any of you to.

                                                                    There aren't enough people willing to get it in terribly often enough nowadays to justify turning down my 75:25's, subsequently allowing them off the hook so they can shove allin blind the following hand and donate the money to some other person at the table.
                                                                    Last edited by Lord Sir Banter; 28-07-11, 12:20.
                                                                    X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                                                    Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                                                    $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Sometime Happy Dude View Post
                                                                      Him not being there because I busted him > Him still being there because we ran it a few times and he got half his stack back and churned it off on someone else 3 mins later.
                                                                      In terms of results based thinking, yes. In terms of expected value after the money goes in, no.
                                                                      “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.” - Bertrand Russell

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
                                                                        In terms of results based thinking, yes. In terms of expected value after the money goes in, no.
                                                                        After the money goes in but before the next hand is dealt.
                                                                        X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                                                        Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                                                        $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

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                                                                          #37
                                                                          Most people on here should be running it as many times as possible every time the opportunity presents itself**

                                                                          If you play well you will win in the long run, the only thing which will stop you is if you go bust. Even if you are broke for short periods of time you are losing out by not playing. Therefore you should take the line of least variance which is to run it multiple times.


                                                                          ** assumes the typical IPB'er is above average skill wise but often playing off a limited roll.

                                                                          .

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            I'll also throw in the Barry greenstein meta-game factor of never running it twice. He never runs it twice so his big semi bluffs and bluffs have a greater fear factor because peopleknow when they put their chips in against him it's gona be for all the money one time.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              Guys this is pretty simple spot. You run it once and hope to fade! Sure the ev side of things n whatever but common sense surely applys here. If you run it more than once your just effectively giving your opponent a significant high chance of making extra money off you. It's a bad spot for you regardless but theres no point running twice here as high chance you will be quatered and in any game bar omaha hi-lo this is a very bad result. It's a 5-1 shot for you to get stacked and this type of situation never comes up enough to make running it etc amount of times profitable so just cross your fingers and hope you fade!
                                                                              Huh, Math my dear boy is nothing more than the lesbian sister of biology.

                                                                              My Poker Blog http://jason-tompkins.blogspot.com
                                                                              My twitter http://twitter.com/#!/blaaaaaah666

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                                                                                #40
                                                                                Originally posted by blaaaaaaah View Post
                                                                                in any game bar omaha hi-lo this is a very bad result.
                                                                                Getting quartered in O8 is bad too
                                                                                “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.” - Bertrand Russell

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by blaaaaaaah View Post
                                                                                  Guys this is pretty simple spot. You run it once and hope to fade! Sure the ev side of things n whatever but common sense surely applys here. If you run it more than once your just effectively giving your opponent a significant high chance of making extra money off you. It's a bad spot for you regardless but theres no point running twice here as high chance you will be quatered and in any game bar omaha hi-lo this is a very bad result. It's a 5-1 shot for you to get stacked and this type of situation never comes up enough to make running it etc amount of times profitable so just cross your fingers and hope you fade!
                                                                                  almost bit there, but hit delete and typed this instead, wp.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
                                                                                    Getting quartered in O8 is bad too
                                                                                    Correct but it's not d worst... Come on u get me stop yanking my chain
                                                                                    Huh, Math my dear boy is nothing more than the lesbian sister of biology.

                                                                                    My Poker Blog http://jason-tompkins.blogspot.com
                                                                                    My twitter http://twitter.com/#!/blaaaaaah666

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