Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Wordle Gummidge

[ComradeCollie]

The postmates pride ad makes me feel old.

[coillcam]

That's really useful - shows that my 2PM flight seems to be typically taking off ~ an hour later than scheduled (but still landing more or less on time). Will leave the house at 12.30.

Just be careful as to why its late, hopefully the security isn't too bad.

Is the plane late arriving from somewhere else or is it sitting idle at the gate/runway? If it's late due to plane being delayed elsewhere already, then boarding will be delayed. If the plane is sitting idle at the gate then board probably will run as normal.

[Raoul Duke III]

England have pretty much reinvented test cricket this summer. What they did three times in a row against a good NZ side was unprecedented but now they've gone even bigger against India. Mad stuff.

[Hectorjelly]

The euro getting absolutely destroyed in the light of the German industrial base having to shut down. Raoul you are going to have to pick a new country to idolise!

https://www.ft.com/content/6f325773-bf8a-4e28-9fc1-6bc986ee90fa

It's worth bearing in mind that a lot of this is entirely self inflicted.

[The Aul Switcharoo]

1 space to play with Palmerstown at 3.20 with Solks, Theresa and me. Must be good craic

[Wombatman]

My little share portfolio is down 20% since the start of the year. Wondering what to do about it.

[Raoul Duke III]

My little share portfolio is down 20% since the start of the year. Wondering what to do about it.

Buy more.

[Murdrum]

My little share portfolio is down 20% since the start of the year. Wondering what to do about it.

Assuming it’s US equities, if that EUR keeps declining, who knows you might end up, up money.

I no longer even look at the share price of my place

[Hectorjelly]

My little share portfolio is down 20% since the start of the year. Wondering what to do about it.

Did you handpick the stocks or is it passive?

In general the worst thing to do is buy high and sell low, so just forget about it now for a couple of years. As long as the world doesn't end there will be future stock market highs, they might just be a good while away.

[AndyFatBastard]

My little share portfolio is down 20% since the start of the year. Wondering what to do about it.

Bitcoin

[Strewelpeter]

Could be worse

FWv9176WAAAyC9M?format=jpg&name=small.jpg

[Hectorjelly]

I've been looking through some US companies that are really unbelievable -

Sunrun - (they do everything to do with Solar Panels). They lose a lot of money each year and have no clear path to profitability. They have lots of debt and not much cash to last them that long (I think less than a year?). WIth interest rates getting higher finance gets more expensive for them. I went through the transcript of their earnings call and nobody asked about ever turning a profit? Or running out of money? Shareholders are currently being diluted each year.
5b market cap, IMO this should be close to zero

Coinbase - Overhired during the boom and now are on course to lose a gigantic amount each quarter. Huge dilution of shareholders. Even if crypto makes a comeback their model of extornatiate fees is likely to be challenged. They charge retail something like 60 times what they charge institutional clients. Similar companies have a fraction of the workforce. They have a lot of cash on their balance sheet so the best thing to do would be to fire everyone and start afresh (or give back the money to shareholders)
11b market cap. Should be close to book.

Doordash - this is the stupidest of them all. Their business model makes no sense at all. The more revenue they do the more money they lose. The majority shareholders are Sequoia and Tiger, neither of them strangers to money-losing businesses. The funniest thing about this market is that there is some competition to see who gets the privilege of a monopoly that loses money.
27b market cap lol. They doubled their employees recently.

These are just the craziest ones I've happened across I'm sure there are plenty more, also the whole market is flooded with businesses that are fine, but vastly overvalued. (EG Zoom, Tesla etc)

[Hectorjelly]

Could be worse

FWv9176WAAAyC9M?format=jpg&name=small.jpg

Hitch was on twitter making the case for this the other day

[Murdrum]

I've been looking through some US companies that are really unbelievable -

Sunrun - (they do everything to do with Solar Panels). They lose a lot of money each year and have no clear path to profitability. They have lots of debt and not much cash to last them that long (I think less than a year?). WIth interest rates getting higher finance gets more expensive for them. I went through the transcript of their earnings call and nobody asked about ever turning a profit? Or running out of money? Shareholders are currently being diluted each year.
5b market cap, IMO this should be close to zero

Coinbase - Overhired during the boom and now are on course to lose a gigantic amount each quarter. Huge dilution of shareholders. Even if crypto makes a comeback their model of extornatiate fees is likely to be challenged. They charge retail something like 60 times what they charge institutional clients. Similar companies have a fraction of the workforce. They have a lot of cash on their balance sheet so the best thing to do would be to fire everyone and start afresh (or give back the money to shareholders)
11b market cap. Should be close to book.

Doordash - this is the stupidest of them all. Their business model makes no sense at all. The more revenue they do the more money they lose. The majority shareholders are Sequoia and Tiger, neither of them strangers to money-losing businesses. The funniest thing about this market is that there is some competition to see who gets the privilege of a monopoly that loses money.
27b market cap lol. They doubled their employees recently.

These are just the craziest ones I've happened across I'm sure there are plenty more, also the whole market is flooded with businesses that are fine, but vastly overvalued. (EG Zoom, Tesla etc)

You should check out Damodaran if you haven’t already, I suspect he is right up your street: https://youtube.com/c/AswathDamodaranonValuation

[Hectorjelly]

You should check out Damodaran if you haven’t already, I suspect he is right up your street: https://youtube.com/c/AswathDamodaranonValuation

Someone turned me onto him earlier this year! He is absolutely incredible, he has such a deep understanding of what he is talking about and is an amazing communicator. He gave a podcast recently which is one of the best discussions about inflation that I've heard - https://open.spotify.com/episode/13k...e33668c8ba4a4f

There's also something dreamy about his voice!

[Lao Lao]

Have got back swimming in the last few weeks (in a 50m pool rather than loling around in the sea)

After the first session, I thought I was going to drown after about 300m - My fitness is fooked and it'll be a long, tough journey from where I used to be (a long time ago, I was doing a mile every second day)

Have gotten slightly better over the last few weeks (but still a long way to go) so was starting to feel good about myself until last night.

As I got in the pool, I noticed one lad in my lane was splashing quite a lot when swimming and looked like he hadn't got good form. Wasn't being judgmental or anything, it's just a bit unusual to see as most of the people doing 50 lengths are well versed in it.

It was only as I went past him, I realised he only had one arm. When I noticed this, I wondered to myself why he wasn't kicking more with his legs to take the pressure off his one arm until I passed him the 2nd time and noticed he had no legs!

The lad completely outswam me. I was doing 50m in a quicker time than him but I was stopping to take breaks very regularly where he was swimming right the way through.

I was equally in awe of him as I was disappointed with myself for being so unfit so I resolved this by convincing myself that he was a para-Olympian


A long way to go indeed!

[Dice75]

1 space to play with Palmerstown at 3.20 with Solks, Theresa and me. Must be good craic

What day? If today obvs too late

[LuckyLloyd]

I've been looking through some US companies that are really unbelievable -

Sunrun - (they do everything to do with Solar Panels). They lose a lot of money each year and have no clear path to profitability. They have lots of debt and not much cash to last them that long (I think less than a year?). WIth interest rates getting higher finance gets more expensive for them. I went through the transcript of their earnings call and nobody asked about ever turning a profit? Or running out of money? Shareholders are currently being diluted each year.
5b market cap, IMO this should be close to zero

Coinbase - Overhired during the boom and now are on course to lose a gigantic amount each quarter. Huge dilution of shareholders. Even if crypto makes a comeback their model of extornatiate fees is likely to be challenged. They charge retail something like 60 times what they charge institutional clients. Similar companies have a fraction of the workforce. They have a lot of cash on their balance sheet so the best thing to do would be to fire everyone and start afresh (or give back the money to shareholders)
11b market cap. Should be close to book.

Doordash - this is the stupidest of them all. Their business model makes no sense at all. The more revenue they do the more money they lose. The majority shareholders are Sequoia and Tiger, neither of them strangers to money-losing businesses. The funniest thing about this market is that there is some competition to see who gets the privilege of a monopoly that loses money.
27b market cap lol. They doubled their employees recently.

These are just the craziest ones I've happened across I'm sure there are plenty more, also the whole market is flooded with businesses that are fine, but vastly overvalued. (EG Zoom, Tesla etc)

What will really blow your noodle is talking to investors in businesses like this (I know a guy with a few quid in Coinbase) and how the facts can be cherrypicked and twisted to suit a bull narrative.

[Raoul Duke III]

Arrived more or less on time but now monster queues to get OUT of Scipol FFS.

[Raoul Duke III]

There's a guy who is the spitting image of ionapaul losing the head in the non-moving queue.
Even gave him a wink to check it wasn't the man himself.

[Dice75]

Do enjoy watchimg different stuff over the summer and a break from the normal stuff.

Todays punt is on Caleb Ewan to ship todays TdF stage @ 7.6

[Raoul Duke III]

All joking aside, this is pretty bad. One elderly lady just collapsed.

[Keane]

Do enjoy watchimg different stuff over the summer and a break from the normal stuff.

Todays punt is on Caleb Ewan to ship todays TdF stage @ 7.6

That was class. WVA is some man.

[Raoul Duke III]

2.5 hours, WTF.

Dublin Airport is a shining bastion of efficiency by contrast.

[DeeBrown]

Nip into the "coffee" shop, and relaaaaax man

[Strewelpeter]

Surely Johnson can't survive this. Sunak and Javid resign together

[ComradeCollie]

Javid and Sunak resign

[Raoul Duke III]

Secret Remoaners desert Brave Brexit Boris, good riddance.

That'll be your Express or Mail headlines (with a nasty undertone about their ethnicity).

[Degag]

Big news. Difficult to see him survive it but i've said that half a dozen times in the last few months.

Javid one of the slightly more likable, and possibly competent, members of the Tory front bench, not that that says too much.

[ComradeCollie]

Secret Remoaners desert Brave Brexit Boris, good riddance.

That'll be your Express or Mail headlines (with a nasty undertone about their ethnicity).

Starmers policy of making Brexit work is the dumbest move ever though. Doubt he'll be around for long.

[AndyFatBastard]

Rishi Sunak making his move?

[Murdrum]

Hesitant to say he’s gone given his ability to hang on thus far.

Leadership challenge can’t happen for a year now, does he simply stay figuring things can’t get any worse.

As much as The Rest is Politics is generally a bit OTT on the petty jabs, it will be entertaining this week given what has happened

[MysteryGuest]

Big MetrLOLink announcement today
at least the cgi gets better each time they announce this- looking forward to the 2040 one already

[Strewelpeter]

Starmers policy of making Brexit work is the dumbest move ever though. Doubt he'll be around for long.

I think that Starmer's policy announcement yesterday is a significant factor in the likes of Sunak finally finding the scruples to put the knife in. With the concession from Labour that it is politically impossible for them to get elected on a platform of reversing Brexit the ERG can withdraw from Government nd blame everyone else for the shambles that is Brexit.
There was an astonishing admission from Rees-Gobshite in an interview yesterday when he called out again falsely claiming the Vaccine development was a Brexit Success when cornered he claimed it was a 'philosophical' victory because it gave them the confidence to act alone!

All may not be not lost though, if there can be a strong Lib-Lab election pact with PR top of the agenda then the whole political landscape changes.

[Strewelpeter]

Hesitant to say he’s gone given his ability to hang on thus far.

Leadership challenge can’t happen for a year now, does he simply stay figuring things can’t get any worse.

As much as The Rest is Politics is generally a bit OTT on the petty jabs, it will be entertaining this week given what has happened

Not this time, the no challenge for a year rule is arbitrary and can change tonight.

The 1/7 available 'gone in 2022' market is slightly better value than the 6/4 that was there this morning.

[Murdrum]

Jediah Morgan finished last in the Liv Golf event on a score of +21 through 54 holes last week out of a 48 person field;
Lowry finished tied 9th in the Irish Open out of a 150 person field.

Both got 120K

[Murdrum]

Not this time, the no challenge for a year rule is arbitrary and can change tonight.

The 1/7 available 'gone in 2022' market is slightly better value than the 6/4 that was there this morning.

Ah ok, I see now. The 1922 can change the rules to allow for it. So it’s only a case whether the current committee does it or they wait for the vote

[MysteryGuest]

Kyrgios beating a Brit in Wimbledon final still on cards
would be lovely it could be mixed in with some kind of disrespectful gesture to the Royal Box and/or a ball /racket fucked at Cliff Richard

[MysteryGuest]

Would take a Djoker win to knock Federer into 3rd on the grand slam list too

[Murdrum]

They got this out quite quickly especially given it’s 11pm where Rory Stewart is based: https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcas...=1000568922264

[pokerhand]

The Boys on Amazon is a great watch. Surprising funny.

[Degag]

Would take a Djoker win to knock Federer into 3rd on the grand slam list too

Quite a take. Djokovic was one of the most unlikable sportspeople out there (along with Neymar, Hamilton, Rapinoe and a few others i can't think of). And that was even before his covid hysterics.

Whereas Federer is seen as an all out nice guys and legend? Not hugely into tennis so maybe there's shit associated with him but don't think so.

Then again, maybe you are on the wind.

[The Aul Switcharoo]

What day? If today obvs too late

You were too late. Next time he's home we'll organise a game and a session

Was a good game and good company. Nip and tuck for most of it but I had an epic meltdown in the end. Lost balls off the tee on 16, 17 and 18 to finish 7 over for the last 3 holes

[MysteryGuest]

Quite a take. Djokovic was one of the most unlikable sportspeople out there (along with Neymar, Hamilton, Rapinoe and a few others i can't think of). And that was even before his covid hysterics.

Whereas Federer is seen as an all out nice guys and legend? Not hugely into tennis so maybe there's shit associated with him but don't think so.

Then again, maybe you are on the wind.

Not on the wind- Djokovic is the GOAT -

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Made the first instalment payment this evening on what will eventually accumulate over the next six months into my NextBigBet^TM

SPOILER

Ron de Santis to be the Republican nominee at 2/1. Freeeeeeeeee mooooonnnneeeeeyyyyyy. Going to try to get the bet up to around 3k for a decent tax-free payout.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

2.5 hours, WTF.

Dublin Airport is a shining bastion of efficiency by contrast.

Dublin Airport is beautiful. The busiest time of the year and the crowds just flow through it.

[Raoul Duke III]

Made the first instalment payment this evening on what will eventually accumulate over the next six months into my NextBigBet^TM

SPOILER

Ron de Santis to be the Republican nominee at 2/1. Freeeeeeeeee mooooonnnneeeeeyyyyyy. Going to try to get the bet up to around 3k for a decent tax-free payout.

Ha, you aftertiming focker. Haven't I been after tipping him 4 prez, begod and surely.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Ha, you aftertiming focker. Haven't I been after tipping him 4 prez, begod and surely.

don't jump on my bandwagon you prick

[Raoul Duke III]

don't jump on my bandwagon you prick

ye don't even have a wagon, so ye don't. C'mere now and we'll shite in the bucket, so we will.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

I do think the better bet, for a big bet, is the Republican nominee. Just not sure there are the population demographics there for an actual Republican president. They seem to have alienated too many important segments of the population. Especially for a candidate as extremist as De Santis. But the Republican nominee should be a walk in the park for him. It seems like madness that they are offering 2/1 on it.

[Raoul Duke III]

I do think the better bet, for a big bet, is the Republican nominee. Just not sure there are the population demographics there for an actual Republican president. They seem to have alienated too many important segments of the population. Especially for a candidate as extremist as De Santis. But the Republican nominee should be a walk in the park for him. It seems like madness that they are offering 2/1 on it.

Unless (a) the Dems unearth a decent candidate to replace Biden (who has actually done an OK job but is unable to sell it) or (b) Trump comes back from the dead, de Santis is the putative Prez.
(b) probably a bigger threat to him imo although I am allergic to backing 4/1 shots 2.5 years out.

[Degag]

Dublin Airport is beautiful. The busiest time of the year and the crowds just flow through it.

Some moron with a decent following on twitter was having a meltdown prior her flight about whether or not it was going to be cancelled at the weekend and was going to "live tweet" her experience at the airport. Obviously expecting/hoping that it's be a shambles and maybe even that it would be cancelled.

It came up as a suggested tweet as i don't actually follow her but was intrigued to see what had happened. Flew through the airport and made it to her destination cueing many pics of cocktails etc.

Was gonna call her a twat (as well as the aforementioned moron) but at least she had to decency to post that her experience was actually decent at the end rather than say nothing.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Unless (a) the Dems unearth a decent candidate to replace Biden (who has actually done an OK job but is unable to sell it) or (b) Trump comes back from the dead, de Santis is the putative Prez.
(b) probably a bigger threat to him imo although I am allergic to backing 4/1 shots 2.5 years out.

Agree with you on Biden. And generally agree. But I feel that's a bit more like gambling. Happy enough to go with a 200% gain that strikes me as pretty certain. There's no chance Trump is actually getting the nomination imo. De Santis wears the same extremist coat, but will be a lot more believable to voters.

[Theresa]

You were too late. Next time he's home we'll organise a game and a session

Was a good game and good company. Nip and tuck for most of it but I had an epic meltdown in the end. Lost balls off the tee on 16, 17 and 18 to finish 7 over for the last 3 holes

Nip and tuck? You had both of us dead to rights until you decided that pars weren't exciting enough for you.

I think I actually finished 82 when I went through the scorecard.
Too many manky doubles.

Really enjoyed it though, good banter. Next time I come back I'll make the journey easier for ya and travel down to Blaaland.

[Solksjaer!]

Lol. 2 proper golfers and me . Great to be on the course again. Love walking on a fairway , no work no kids , very chilling. . . These 2 boys are good folks serious skills . Ive already put feelers out for a game in August. (With fellow hackers)

Big red blister on me left toe . Waiting to stab the bugger.

[Solksjaer!]

ye don't even have a wagon, so ye don't. C'mere now and we'll shite in the bucket, so we will.

. The sexual tension between you too is at an all time high. Raoul he'll break your heart.


Watching that Maxwell docu. She was a fine thing in her day.

[ArmaniJeans]

Alan Bleasdale's 'The Black Stuff' is the Play for Today showing on BBC4 on Tuesday evening - one of the best.

Yozzer Hughes never left the playground. 'Whats there to grow up for?'
Class

Couple of years later and they are finally following up with the original TV show Boys From The Blackstuff.
First 3 episodes from 10pm tomorrow night on BBC4, and the final two next week.

[ArmaniJeans]

Agree with you on Biden. And generally agree. But I feel that's a bit more like gambling. Happy enough to go with a 200% gain that strikes me as pretty certain. There's no chance Trump is actually getting the nomination imo. De Santis wears the same extremist coat, but will be a lot more believable to voters.

I'd have thought it was a 'if Trump runs, he wins' situation in regards to the nomination. All the polling I've seen has it as a landslide between the two of them, though a big deal is being made of the fact that gap has closed to 25 point territory. That's still massive.
There seems no mechanism to keep Trump off the ballot, so your bet seems to rely on him deciding not to run.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

I'd have thought it was a 'if Trump runs, he wins' situation in regards to the nomination. All the polling I've seen has it as a landslide between the two of them, though a big deal is being made of the fact that gap has closed to 25 point territory. That's still massive.
There seems no mechanism to keep Trump off the ballot, so your bet seems to rely on him deciding not to run.

hmm, I didn't bother myself with looking at things like polling numbers like a freakin nerd. So this is news to me. Maybe its good that my planned strategy is to level into the bet over the next few months rather than go straight into it.

[ArmaniJeans]

hmm, I didn't bother myself with looking at things like polling numbers like a freakin nerd. So this is news to me. Maybe its good that my planned strategy is to level into the bet over the next few months rather than go straight into it.

These are some polling figures for various head to heads in the GOP nomination.
National : President: Republican primary : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
I've no idea of how reliable any of the polling companies are and they have a wide spread of results.
Up to 36% lead for Trump in an 'A' rated poll, although the 9% lead with Yougov looks more promising. But that's a total outlier.