Tiernan Kelly’s a good lad apparently- so says his local gaa club anyway “Describing him as a "great ambassador for our club,” Clann Eireann said they will protect the player and his family “from those who don't know him”
I’ll cheer for Ireland in the next RWC if the GAA hand out meaningful punishment
For all this optimal game play, does it fall apart when you're up against a really bad player who doesn't understand ranges (or indeed bet sizing, positional play etc)?
Asking for a friend.
That’s where you deviate into exploitative territory
One of the things that happens a lot in live games for example is multiple people limping and calling a raise. As a consequence you need to adjust your preflop range and raise sizings, cutting off the bottom part of your range and adding another blind for every limper.
However in those scenarios you can still make some range assumptions. You have adjusted to make your range more top heavy, while you have also “condensed” your opponents range - i.e. by them limping and then calling they are capped at the top end but by you making it 5 or maybe 6 blinds to play they likely folded their complete garbage.
Knowing this can help you decide which board textures to attack or check back on the flop and turn. But at the end of the day, the real exploit in live play is to know your customer and understand that when lads start check raising or firing multiple streets most people have it; and you’ll likely know the subset of lads capable of just trying to win a pot.
You also know live players bet to protect a lot and dislike scare cards and sometimes raise one pair for info so you can use those tendencies to rule hands in or out of their range.
The point is that most players are implementing a strategy, irrespective of how correct it may be perceived. Because they have a strategy, they have a range. It may not be an “optimal” range and they may not use optimal sizes or frequencies but the same framework applies. If that makes any sense.
"Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
I mentioned Pairrd and DTO, I use Pairrd myself. You have to use these tools imo as it’s all about repetition ime
Ah sorry, those didn't immediately ring a bell as had been using GTO wizard for the same purpose but had used the free version of DTO a bit.
Did you see the controversy surrounding Jake Schindler and Ali Imsirovic? Basically banned from GGPoker as found to be using RTA (solver) while playing in the 25k's that ran daily on the site over Covid for a while. For those that don't know they are now two of the biggest winners in live poker ever. Can you imagine how good they got from having every decision shadowed by a solver online over the course of months and months! They then take those skills and muscle memory and play live in the biggest tournaments in the world and crush. Feels so dirty.
Ah sorry, those didn't immediately ring a bell as had been using GTO wizard for the same purpose but had used the free version of DTO a bit.
Did you see the controversy surrounding Jake Schindler and Ali Imsirovic? Basically banned from GGPoker as found to be using RTA (solver) while playing in the 25k's that ran daily on the site over Covid for a while. For those that don't know they are now two of the biggest winners in live poker ever. Can you imagine how good they got from having every decision shadowed by a solver online over the course of months and months! They then take those skills and muscle memory and play live in the biggest tournaments in the world and crush. Feels so dirty.
I don’t see how online poker has a long term future tbh. RTA software will stay one step ahead of detection but never be widespread as it will be officially “banned”, meaning games start having hugely asymmetrical distributions of error rates.
I think it’s mad that players can be banned on GG for outright cheating but rock up to the GG sponsored WSOP and play away.
Online will die and live poker will survive imo.
"Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
it is even weirder given that Pokerstars turned them away from their live events. They rocked up to one of the EPTs and were told when they got to the top of the queue. Sorry boys, not today.Triton has also banned them but for whatever reason, the WSOP has let them play. Yeah, it is very hard to see how online poker survives unless sites implement some kind of system with camera detection and other security stuff. I think there might be something in VR than could be an option. A VR headset is monitoring everything and literally has cameras, sensors, eye tracking, full-body detection, and vision over the entire environment inside and out so is a possible option in the future.
I am surprised a training site hasn't already released a client with a solver that people can play on with other players for the sole intention of getting better through playing while having the solver shadow you with everyone on the same playing field.
This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
That’s where you deviate into exploitative territory
One of the things that happens a lot in live games for example is multiple people limping and calling a raise. As a consequence you need to adjust your preflop range and raise sizings, cutting off the bottom part of your range and adding another blind for every limper.
However in those scenarios you can still make some range assumptions. You have adjusted to make your range more top heavy, while you have also “condensed” your opponents range - i.e. by them limping and then calling they are capped at the top end but by you making it 5 or maybe 6 blinds to play they likely folded their complete garbage.
Knowing this can help you decide which board textures to attack or check back on the flop and turn. But at the end of the day, the real exploit in live play is to know your customer and understand that when lads start check raising or firing multiple streets most people have it; and you’ll likely know the subset of lads capable of just trying to win a pot.
You also know live players bet to protect a lot and dislike scare cards and sometimes raise one pair for info so you can use those tendencies to rule hands in or out of their range.
The point is that most players are implementing a strategy, irrespective of how correct it may be perceived. Because they have a strategy, they have a range. It may not be an “optimal” range and they may not use optimal sizes or frequencies but the same framework applies. If that makes any sense.
A simpler answer is no, it doesn't fall apart. If you play approximately close to GTO you will crush live games by ignoring your opponents (not their actions but who they are or any "reads" you think you have). Your assumptions are quite likely to be wrong anyway.
A simpler answer is no, it doesn't fall apart. If you play approximately close to GTO you will crush live games by ignoring your opponents (not their actions but who they are or any "reads" you think you have). Your assumptions are quite likely to be wrong anyway.
Old men with v-necked jumpers are nits, except when they're not. Cost me a lot of money that one.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
The relocation thing has disappeared deep into the impenetrable depths of HR.
If it was just me, I wouldn't particularly care if I arrived in August or November but obviously this has wonderful potential to completely fuck up my kids schooling for the year. I doubt too many US schools will happily accommodate interlopers appearing in the middle of the academic year.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
The relocation thing has disappeared deep into the impenetrable depths of HR.
If it was just me, I wouldn't particularly care if I arrived in August or November but obviously this has wonderful potential to completely fuck up my kids schooling for the year. I doubt too many US schools will happily accommodate interlopers appearing in the middle of the academic year.
Would you think about going your own and commuting a bit?
A simpler answer is no, it doesn't fall apart. If you play approximately close to GTO you will crush live games by ignoring your opponents (not their actions but who they are or any "reads" you think you have). Your assumptions are quite likely to be wrong anyway.
I'm about to disagree (in part) with HJ over poker - is it 2007?
I don't agree that just playing GTO and ignoring your opponents is correct in Live poker. It will be profitable, but involve leaving masses of value on the table in bigger pots.
Yes - once you start making exploitative assumptions off small samples the possibility exists to make drastic mistakes. Some aul lads do bluff; sometimes players are trapping AA and you've made an assumption that discounts it from their range, etc. However, the live playing population simply does not play comparable ranges to the GTO framework. It doesn't bluff with the correct frequencies. It offers weird prices in weird spots. You absolutely need to bake that into your approach.
Bear in mind this is not my view, this is a widely held view amongst experts in modern poker theory:
Just playing your normal GTO ranges and post flop strategy without any concern for your opponents would be a huge flaw imo. We're not talking about looking people down for live reads or whatever, but just paying attention for obvious signals that force deviation from optimal to exploitative play.
"Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
I'm about to disagree (in part) with HJ over poker - is it 2007?
I don't agree that just playing GTO and ignoring your opponents is correct in Live poker. It will be profitable, but involve leaving masses of value on the table in bigger pots.
Yes - once you start making exploitative assumptions off small samples the possibility exists to make drastic mistakes. Some aul lads do bluff; sometimes players are trapping AA and you've made an assumption that discounts it from their range, etc. However, the live playing population simply does not play comparable ranges to the GTO framework. It doesn't bluff with the correct frequencies. It offers weird prices in weird spots. You absolutely need to bake that into your approach.
Bear in mind this is not my view, this is a widely held view amongst experts in modern poker theory:
Just playing your normal GTO ranges and post flop strategy without any concern for your opponents would be a huge flaw imo. We're not talking about looking people down for live reads or whatever, but just paying attention for obvious signals that force deviation from optimal to exploitative play.
I'm not sure i really agree, (Doug Polk has repeatedly claimed that this is false) but in any case i think its a bit off point as to Raoul original post, i.e. does optimal play fall apart when against a bad player, to which the answer is No, playing GTO against a bad player will absolutely crush them.
You could add as a caveat that it may be possible to win even more against them by exploiting their specific mistakes, but this has a number of downsides.
ty poker for paying for my university but alas it is a boring game the more it gets solved and has only ever been a lot of fun playing with friends for me.
I'm not sure i really agree, (Doug Polk has repeatedly claimed that this is false) but in any case i think its a bit off point as to Raoul original post, i.e. does optimal play fall apart when against a bad player, to which the answer is No, playing GTO against a bad player will absolutely crush them.
You could add as a caveat that it may be possible to win even more against them by exploiting their specific mistakes, but this has a number of downsides.
I thought this vid was good, interesting conversation and some good specific examples
ty poker for paying for my university but alas it is a boring game the more it gets solved and has only ever been a lot of fun playing with friends for me.
You know what the strange thing is? Since I've started relearning the theory I'm finding it more interesting than ever. I actually think live has become fascinating precisely because of the greater mix in styles you encounter and trying to identify the right deviations from optimal to make. And the sweat of the runout is still as exciting as ever.
One thing is for sure - we didn't realise just how good the opportunity was 17 years ago. It really was a gold mine.
"Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
Teresea , I’m in for next weeks game, time booked off . Now to be clear, I love to play golf and I can hit the ball and I deffo won’t hold you guys up. However I’m not a golfer per se . I played with 3 scratch golfers before was obvs 30 shots behind them at end of play and enjoyed the game immensely watching them bomb . However I have one small request the nearly got one of the scratch golfers a hoof in the arse. If I drive the ball a miserable 230 etc and in the rough. Please do not moan about a 300 drive that falls barely off the fairway into semi rough with a SW just to go to the hole.
And if I say my drive is all right. I usually mean it’s ALL right, unless I pull it to the left, then it’s ALL Left.
Teresea , I’m in for next weeks game, time booked off . Now to be clear, I love to play golf and I can hit the ball and I deffo won’t hold you guys up. However I’m not a golfer per se . I played with 3 scratch golfers before was obvs 30 shots behind them at end of play and enjoyed the game immensely watching them bomb . However I have one small request the nearly got one of the scratch golfers a hoof in the arse. If I drive the ball a miserable 230 etc and in the rough. Please do not moan about a 300 drive that falls barely off the fairway into semi rough with a SW just to go to the hole.
And if I say my drive is all right. I usually mean it’s ALL right, unless I pull it to the left, then it’s ALL Left.
It's alright Coillcam is mid handicap and I can hit it 300 yards left and right. Could be some army golf going on. I'm all about the short game
Teresea , I’m in for next weeks game, time booked off . Now to be clear, I love to play golf and I can hit the ball and I deffo won’t hold you guys up. However I’m not a golfer per se . I played with 3 scratch golfers before was obvs 30 shots behind them at end of play and enjoyed the game immensely watching them bomb . However I have one small request the nearly got one of the scratch golfers a hoof in the arse. If I drive the ball a miserable 230 etc and in the rough. Please do not moan about a 300 drive that falls barely off the fairway into semi rough with a SW just to go to the hole.
And if I say my drive is all right. I usually mean it’s ALL right, unless I pull it to the left, then it’s ALL Left.
I'm not a long hitter up here at elevation, I definitely won't be at sea level. It'll be all good, fun round.
Course is rated way harder than it plays though, so it kicked my cap in the nuts. Will be losing money for the next 3 weeks.
Originally posted by The Aul Switcharoo
Jesus. So basically 3 or 4 under for the other 17 holes?
Yeah, was a good round. I chipped in eagled the hole after the 10, and then birdie another coming in. Think I was 2 under after the 10. Scorecard was gas.
This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
You know what the strange thing is? Since I've started relearning the theory I'm finding it more interesting than ever. I actually think live has become fascinating precisely because of the greater mix in styles you encounter and trying to identify the right deviations from optimal to make. And the sweat of the runout is still as exciting as ever.
One thing is for sure - we didn't realise just how good the opportunity was 17 years ago. It really was a gold mine.
Eventually I was withdrawing the maximum from the ATM every day as a teenager (€700) haha but I'm not that motivated by money or I'd be retired millionaire in the US. What I like about games are the learning and overcoming something, and in that sense learning poker is amazing, but when things are solved and it becomes studying it's boring, unless you're trying to come up with something yourself. So the only way to keep it interesting really is deviating and trying to beat people. Long hours at tables playing a certain optimal strategy without deviation, painful. And computers will make sure it is that way eventually, apart from drunk locals. Online will die due to computing advancement. That's why competitive computer games are so fun, you can try to improve or master one an move on to the next when you do, or suffer forever like andy playing one.
Yeah I hear you Tar.Aldarion - back in the mid 2000s and for a few years afterwards people were figuring stuff out on the fly and there was a lot of understanding and advancement being made via conversation. It was exciting stuff. There has been a transition to X being accepted as the answer to Y for foundational theory for a while now, and your only option is to consume that. It's not participative.
There is pioneering still, but it's occurring at a level most people will never reach.
I kind of like the new challenge though, trying to learn and then apply those learnings more consistently. At lower stakes it's no longer about brilliance and aptitude, but focus, concentration and discipline. There are no excuses to play preflop badly anymore, your limitations are your own. If you put work into analysing a certain spot you get rewarded by having a clear idea what to do when that spot presents itself in your next session.
What I'm really enjoying is how the hours spent slaving for a 15% ROI online pays off so big when you sit down to play live. There's a reasonably big edge to be had there still and while it's hard or impossible to play enough to properly exercise it, I've felt really good about where my game is during each tournament I've played since I returned this year. I will always enjoy the feeling of attaining a basic competence at something and being able to apply it. That follows for anything in life. But I appreciate that's not particularly sexy and that the game was all the more open and rewarding years ago.
"Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
Well I’d be happy to chip in the little I know anyway.
We used to think ‘I’d rather shove connectors than a rag Ace’ and we worried lots and lots about being dominated when getting it in with little or no fold equity. We weren’t far off, but the solvers are more focussed on removal than domination, and this changes things.
It changes even more in bounty tournaments or scenarios where you *know* you will be called, where higher cards become the priority over everything else.
I've started a thread, if there sufficient interest, maybe the topic should be split off. But if it will get more eyeballs here, no harm.
I'll preface this by saying not used solvers at all, but I'm not sure I agree with the bolded part - in that I don't think that was the consensus 10-15 years ago. Obviously there was definitely a cohort of players who were content to turn the cards over and such loved the suited connectors. But they were the value in the game. Similarly players who overvalued KQs and undervalued A-Rag in shove fold stages.
I understand you are referring to GTO across multiple streets, all stages etc. I'm just getting at the fact many of us were talking about hand/range v hand/range equity back then. Maybe that was the start of GTO, I'm not sure. Nash equilibrium a very big part of tournament late stage play. As was ICM, although took a while for people to grasp that.
Ah sorry, those didn't immediately ring a bell as had been using GTO wizard for the same purpose but had used the free version of DTO a bit.
Did you see the controversy surrounding Jake Schindler and Ali Imsirovic? Basically banned from GGPoker as found to be using RTA (solver) while playing in the 25k's that ran daily on the site over Covid for a while. For those that don't know they are now two of the biggest winners in live poker ever. Can you imagine how good they got from having every decision shadowed by a solver online over the course of months and months! They then take those skills and muscle memory and play live in the biggest tournaments in the world and crush. Feels so dirty.
i'd have assume the high levels games have been riddled for some time
It's alright Coillcam is mid handicap and I can hit it 300 yards left and right. Could be some army golf going on. I'm all about the short game
Don't worry Solskjaer , if I'm anything like the last round I'll be high handicap territory. It's only a bit of craic and there's nobody there to look at a putt from 7 angles.
Anyone happen to have contact details for Zuutroy?
I do yeah
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner! https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
When I messed around with the solver I found it very interesting. I think people have the wrong impression that you are trying to learn off spots which is true in solved spots like 10bb poker but for the most part, multi-way poker is still so vast that it is impossible to try to mimic the solver. My understanding is that instead, it is kind of like trying to learn from someone who is very, very good at poker. You look at spots and try to understand why the solver is doing what it is doing in certain hands and then apply that logic across a range of spots. The example I gave earlier of how it arrives at an overbet is a thinking framework that you learn from the solver which you can incorporate into other spots. It is not much different from when you would post a hand here back in the day and some of the good players would give feedback only you can now ask the best player in the world (solver) what they think or at least for the answer and then try to work out how they arrived at that answer which is fun. That said most people play poker for money and edges are so small now and then the game is so complex to learn that it is hard to really find the passion to dive in deep.
Looking at the rugby odds... New Zealand to win the series 2-1 against Ireland seem to be the right bet? You would fancy Ireland to win a test (any test)
No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.
Man working in a big 4 firm must be the biggest doss in the world, how do they keep getting away with it, absolute specialists in failure and no consequences . Complete wasters.
I’ll never play the lotto while KPMG are the auditors
From financial times
EY, the Big Four accounting firm, valued the secretive Israeli spyware company NSO Group at $2.3bn just months before it needed emergency funding in a cash crunch and its equity was deemed worthless. The EY valuation, more than twice what NSO had been valued at two years earlier, was made by analysts in the firm’s Luxembourg office in July last year, according to documents seen by the Financial Times. The estimate of NSO’s enterprise value was made without visiting the company or verifying the information its analysts had been provided. By contrast Berkeley Research Group, a consultancy that represents NSO’s private equity owners, said earlier this year that the company’s equity was “valueless”. The EY valuation was also far higher than what an unnamed potential buyer had offered just weeks earlier, when it proposed to take a minority stake in a deal valuing NSO at $1.6bn, including $500mn in debt. That figure was presented to NSO’s investors at a July 2021 meeting, according to a separate document seen by the FT, though the deal did not go through.
Apparently there's quite the local market for families who want to rent a place close by while their own is being renovated. Local EA seems well connected in that regard and seems like the best route as guaranteed short-term lets.
Although I randomly got called up by a dude cold-offering me a job at 5pm today on the basis of a recommendation by someone I would consider a distant acquaintance. So who knows anything anymore.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
Booked MisterS for lunch on Friday. omg it looks salivatingly good. Rather impressively, they are recommended by Michelin (bib gourmand, is it? that step below a star), but they haven't mentioned it anywhere on their website. Maybe the days of Irish restaurants overrelying on Michelin glory have faded away and now the done thing is to have people find it out for themselves.
Eventually I was withdrawing the maximum from the ATM every day as a teenager (€700) haha but I'm not that motivated by money or I'd be retired millionaire in the US. What I like about games are the learning and overcoming something, and in that sense learning poker is amazing, but when things are solved and it becomes studying it's boring, unless you're trying to come up with something yourself. So the only way to keep it interesting really is deviating and trying to beat people. Long hours at tables playing a certain optimal strategy without deviation, painful. And computers will make sure it is that way eventually, apart from drunk locals. Online will die due to computing advancement. That's why competitive computer games are so fun, you can try to improve or master one an move on to the next when you do, or suffer forever like andy playing one.
Saw a brilliant documentary about the Dublin bridge scene a few years ago and always wanted to try it out. It looks a perfect mixture of brutal and quaint, with enough complexity to keep entertained for a good while.
Looking at the rugby odds... New Zealand to win the series 2-1 against Ireland seem to be the right bet? You would fancy Ireland to win a test (any test)
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25 shots please tyvm
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