Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Wordle Gummidge

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

China have a few years where they can throw their weight around before the disaster that is their demographics drags them back into the ranks of not quite super power. Which you should know if you have read almost anything about China and Taiwan and why the danger of China invading is quite large in the short term.

China is 90% driven by global economic ambitions these days. Taiwan is a footnote in that story. The demographics are probably not all that serious once they transition towards focusing on quality of life, as they'll probably just import 100m Indians, the same as the rest of the advanced Asian nations. So their population isn't a static projection, the same as importing of people played such a large role for American economic growth.

[Raoul Duke III]

Does Russia have some valid reasons to be deeply suspicious of a hostile neighbouring country

Just a thought, I might be mad but consider that the reason why the Ukraine feels hostile towards Russia is because Russia has developed a habit of stealing bits of it by force?

Or indeed stuff like centuries of oppression by Moscow, including a deliberately engineered famine that killed millions.

It's almost like you're suggesting this is the Ukraine's fault.

[Raoul Duke III]

IYour takes on Russia are pretty funny though. An amphibious attack group passes into the Med, massive troop build up on the Belarusian border near Kiev and an enormous deployment of forces to the eastern border as well and you say this is run of the mill stuff being hyped by the West for some unspecified gain? Good man. The Rooskies might do absolutely nothing. That does not mean this is absolutely nothing. It is also not normal for countries to mass troops on each others borders. That is not a normal part of geopolitical strategy unless there is a live chance of a shooting war.

Putin's little green men are already fighting in the Donbass region for years now, let's not forget that fact.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

So the times that Russia, since Communism, has attacked Abkhazia, Transnistria, North Ossetia, Chechnya, Dagestan, Georgia, Chechnya again, the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

Were they just standard military posturing? Or fake news, or the US made them do it, or something?

Oh do the list of countries that the US has attacked next!

I'm also keen to hear about the Transnistria attack.

And whether any of those regions were predominantly populated with Russian populations under threat from their own nation. And what you would suggest they should have done to protect their own people in those regions. Maybe a sternly worded email ending in 'I await your response with impatience'.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Just a thought, I might be mad but consider that the reason why the Ukraine feels hostile towards Russia is because Russia has developed a habit of stealing bits of it by force?

Or indeed stuff like centuries of oppression by Moscow, including a deliberately engineered famine that killed millions.

It's almost like you're suggesting this is the Ukraine's fault.

That's such a mad perspective, I can't even tell if you hit your head repeatedly while typing it. Ukraine dominated USSR not 'Moscow'.

[Raoul Duke III]

That's such a mad perspective, I can't even tell if you hit your head repeatedly while typing it. Ukraine dominated USSR not 'Moscow'.

OK, Moscow\Saint Petersburg if we want to be geographically accurate about where the Red Tsars and the White Tsars sat.

Not sure what we call Putin. Definitely a wannabe Tsar of some sort though.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

One smaller thing I find fascinating is the US using economic tools like this. They tried similar against China over access to chip design and Android. But the only possible long-term outcome to this approach is that the rest of the world develop their own independent systems for financial transfers and technology development. Thus breaking valuable Western monopolies. Like there's no victory for the West in these moves when taken against a large enough country that is able to fix the problems.

US made moves before where they were threatening Russian ability to raise international debt, so Russia just paid down the debt and now that's a lost income line for the West.

There must be similar moves in China at the moment on breaking all manner of previous Western monopolies.

The likes of India seem to also be paying attention of trying to ensure they never get into the same situation. Where's the Western gain?

[SatNav]

This is fucking brilliant!!

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt11041332/?ref_=ext_shr_lnk

[Lazare]

Ha, this is good.

I'm +4 after 22 days.

[Hectorjelly]

China is 90% driven by global economic ambitions these days. Taiwan is a footnote in that story. The demographics are probably not all that serious once they transition towards focusing on quality of life, as they'll probably just import 100m Indians, the same as the rest of the advanced Asian nations. So their population isn't a static projection, the same as importing of people played such a large role for American economic growth.

Every sentence in this is wrong!


1 - China has made several very strong moves this year that run directly contrary to their global economic ambitions

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/t...n-layoffs.html

"The crackdown is killing the entrepreneurial drive that made China a tech power and destroying jobs that used to attract the country’s brightest."


2 - Taiwan is never a footnote to China, it's actually the opposite. Taiwan is a direct threat to the CCPs legitimacy. How do you think the CCP feels about a free liberal democracy a short distance from their shores?

3 - Demographics are always extremely serious. It is probably the key element in driving economic growth. (https://www.investopedia.com/article...ve-economy.asp) More and more of Chinas GDP is going to be spent supporting its rapidly ageing population. You can't just open the floodgates and hope to foster a culture of immigration - The US's entire history and culture is based around immigration - Chinas history is basically the opposite. The US speaks English, which is most of the worlds second language.

Do you know what % of the Chinese population now are immigrants? As of 2015, it's 0.07 per cent. Americas is 14%. That's a factor of 200! For a multitude of reasons, China will never be able to count on strong immigration, even if the CCP collapsed it would be too difficult culturally.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...ion-statistics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigr...s%20population.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Every sentence in this is wrong!


1 - China has made several very strong moves this year that run directly contrary to their global economic ambitions

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/t...n-layoffs.html

"The crackdown is killing the entrepreneurial drive that made China a tech power and destroying jobs that used to attract the country’s brightest."

Genuinely, only a US newspaper could write an article that flawed. What China cracked down on was mainly emerging monopolies, and anti-social activities (grind schools). The owners of those monopolies didn't like it. But its well established that monopolies are woeful for the long-term wealth of a country. Where the US newspaper sees a flaw, its actually excellent long-term planning. And then, yeah, cracking down on online grind schools - I feel grinds are a net cost to society, even if the amount of grinds counts towards growth in GDP. That perspective demonstrates excellently the differences between the short-termism of the West (grow, grow, grow, at any cost) and Asia where longer-term strategic moves are worth bits of short-term loss.

For shame, HJ, for shame.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

And even Japan, the most famously hostile nation in the world to non-natives has managed to start a major build up of immigration. Already up near 3%, and likely to be 20% in the coming decades. There will be tensions, but there will always be poor people somewhere who value the economic opportunities. Not that its great news - hopefully they can encourage families to start to have more natural sized families now. Its probably going to be very hard to change that trend though.

[Micknail]

The Tourist veers between ludicrous and intriguing every 5 minutes.

[Dice75]

Ha, this is good.

I'm +4 after 22 days.

20 days @ +3

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Anyone looking for something to watch The Responder is quality

Martin Freeman really is a king. Such a madly versatile actor. The Office, Fargo, this fine offering now. Completely different in each one.

[Strewelpeter]

One smaller thing I find fascinating is the US using economic tools like this.

Really interesting that this is being touted as a way of really hurting Putin, not sure if it;s ignorance or hubris. There is an much more that is interesting about it that I don't have the bandwith for now but a few points

Yes it would be a really powerful tool that could quickly cripple their economy... if only they didn't have a replacement sitting ready to go, google SFPS. I'ts not certain it will be able to run at scale out of the box but they have been live and testing at a small scale for a good while.
Putin understands the power of banking more than anyone, he owns all of them!

There is a wider point that this could provide some insight for some of the cryptotards as to why they have not got anything that even resembles a scalable transactional currency but that's another days work.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

I was speaking to someone recently who was talking about just how low the cost and high the reliability of crypto-transfers have become. Specifically Tether. Something like 20 cent a transfer no matter the amount. I think there's a decent case that regular transfer routes are dead, they just haven't been explicitly killed yet. The system is highly scaleable to infinity and innately almost cost free. Its completely the future.

[Hectorjelly]

And even Japan, the most famously hostile nation in the world to non-natives has managed to start a major build up of immigration. Already up near 3%, and likely to be 20% in the coming decades. There will be tensions, but there will always be poor people somewhere who value the economic opportunities. Not that its great news - hopefully they can encourage families to start to have more natural sized families now. Its probably going to be very hard to change that trend though.

Capture.JPG

It took Japan 10 years to add about 50% to their non-native population, and Japan is a highly desirable location, a functioning democracy that is already well integrated with the world. We even have a name for westerners obsessed with Japanese culture!

So based on this (which is your example), if China has the same growth rate as Japan, they are on course to reach the figure of 4.03% in 2122!

[Strewelpeter]

Had Friel at the Abbey cancelled last week and another gig I was looking forward to on Saturday has been postponed, hopefully I'll get a clear run at the Thystes in Gowran tomorrow, already one of the lads was gong with has had to cancel. Need to dodge two potential roadbumps in the morning and then in gone.

Two against the field in the big race: Mr Fogpatches and Diol Ker both much shorter prices than I'd expected I think the former is still ew value at c. 14s
Tiger Bay Queen is fancied against the Mullins hotpot in the bumper

Place pot / jackpot
3 4 11 18
3 5
1
2 3 10 18
17 18
1

[Theresa]

Ha, this is good.

I'm +4 after 22 days.

I'm -1. 20 days.

[Strewelpeter]

Wordle 222 3/6

⬛

Image looked fine In editor

I make it that I'm 5 under after 29

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Capture.JPG

It took Japan 10 years to add about 50% to their non-native population, and Japan is a highly desirable location, a functioning democracy that is already well integrated with the world. We even have a name for westerners obsessed with Japanese culture!

So based on this (which is your example), if China has the same growth rate as Japan, they are on course to reach the figure of 4.03% in 2122!

That was indeed my example! A poor one with hindsight as the data demolishes it. I would suggest a secondary hypothesis - China has a vast disapora and related population who can be encouraged to 'come home' for the right economic incentive. Ergo Vietnam, South Korea, North Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, also a decent bit of the Indian borders. Japan has none of that. So China will have the same economic incentives in due course, is also a much more open culture than the Japanese, and has this vast diaspora to draw on.

[DeeBrown]

I'm clearly an illiterate klutz,
only ever seem to squeak it on my last chance.

Wordle 222 6/6

⬜

btw - How do you attach the coloured squares thingy?

[Mellor]

That was indeed my example! A poor one with hindsight as the data demolishes it. I would suggest a secondary hypothesis - China has a vast disapora and related population who can be encouraged to 'come home' for the right economic incentive. Ergo Vietnam, South Korea, North Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, also a decent bit of the Indian borders. Japan has none of that. So China will have the same economic incentives in due course, is also a much more open culture than the Japanese, and has this vast diaspora to draw on.

There’s a large population of Japanese in North South America. A diaspora of about 4m. The Chinese diaspora is obviously greater, about 40m. But that’s expected, given the population of China is over 10x that of Japan.
I don’t think your point holds up when you look at it in a % of total basis.

[Dice75]

Missed a 4 footer for birdie today

[Raoul Duke III]

Missed a 4 footer for birdie today

It's actually not all that difficult is it? Just requires a bit of thinking through it and reminding yourself not to get fancy as they're all pretty basic words.

Starting to get bored with it tbf.

[Raoul Duke III]

There’s a large population of Japanese in North South America. A diaspora of about 4m. The Chinese diaspora is obviously greater, about 40m. But that’s expected, given the population of China is over 10x that of Japan.
I don’t think your point holds up when you look at it in a % of total basis.

Always wondered how Peru ended up with such a large Japanese population. Didn't they recently have a Japanese president?

[6starpool]

Ha, this is good.

I'm +4 after 22 days.

Plus 3 after 23 days, which includes a double bogey 6 today. They should assign +3 to all non guesses, but so far I've got them all.

[tylerdurden94]

This is fucking brilliant!!

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt11041332/?ref_=ext_shr_lnk

I've three episodes left in this season and do agree it's very good.

[Hectorjelly]

I love how fat this squirrel is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpine_marmot

[shrapnel]

I love how fat this squirrel is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpine_marmot

if you go in the alps in the summer, you'll see hundreds of them when using the ski lifts

[pokerhand]

if you go in the alps in the summer, you'll see hundreds of them when using the ski lifts

No wonder they are fat so... Lazy buggers

[Raoul Duke III]

Always wondered how Peru ended up with such a large Japanese population. Didn't they recently have a Japanese president?

He appears to be a rather unsavoury character. Down with immigrants!

[Degag]

It's actually not all that difficult is it? Just requires a bit of thinking through it and reminding yourself not to get fancy as they're all pretty basic words.

Starting to get bored with it tbf.

Not really. I haven’t gotten one wrong yet. A lot depends on how you get on with your first couple guesses though. Blanks or even a yellow or two without a green can make it tricky.

[Raoul Duke III]

Not really. I haven’t gotten one wrong yet. A lot depends on how you get on with your first couple guesses though. Blanks or even a yellow or two without a green can make it tricky.

I've been using AUDIO and ROPES; mostly they seem to get you on the right track pretty quick.

The desire to use some fancy-schmancy word does frequently have to be suppressed.

[Hectorjelly]

Always wondered how Peru ended up with such a large Japanese population. Didn't they recently have a Japanese president?

I've no idea, but there are loads of Japanese in Brazil too, apparently, the best Japanese food (after Japan) is in Brazil.

[Dice75]

It's actually not all that difficult is it? Just requires a bit of thinking through it and reminding yourself not to get fancy as they're all pretty basic words.

Starting to get bored with it tbf.

Yep, my third line was a redic level on my part instead of going for the obvious

[Raoul Duke III]

I've no idea, but there are loads of Japanese in Brazil too, apparently, the best Japanese food (after Japan) is in Brazil.

Probably there was a shortage of manpower to work the farms\ranches in South America back at that point in time? Much like why the Chinese labourers came to work the railways in the US around the same era.

[Hectorjelly]

Probably there was a shortage of manpower to work the farms\ranches in South America back at that point in time? Much like why the Chinese labourers came to work the railways in the US around the same era.

That's pretty close! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Brazilians

In 1907, the Brazilian and the Japanese governments signed a treaty permitting Japanese migration to Brazil. This was due in part to the decrease in the Italian immigration to Brazil and a new labour shortage on the coffee plantations.

Brazil is home to the largest Japanese population outside Japan

[Dice75]

Any interest in a sweep for the Thyestes at Gowran @ 3.05pm (On RTE2) - 18 runners currently €20 a pop

€200
€100
€60

Honour system payment

First 18 in and i'll do a draw at 2.30pm

1) Dice
2) Dukey
3) DeadMoney
4) Ole
5) Elbows
6) HJ
7) Dice47 (aul lad)
8) KK82
9) BalfeJohn
10) Dobby
11) Shrap
12) Solks
13) Iona
14) Honda
15) Lplate
16) 6Starpool
17) Keane

[Raoul Duke III]

IN

[DeadParrot]

In

[DeadParrot]

touch me

[oleras]

in

[elbows]

In

[Hectorjelly]

In

[KK82]

In!

[shrapnel]

In

[DeadParrot]

Any interest in a sweep for the Thyestes at Gowran @ 3.05pm (On RTE2) - 18 runners currently €20 a pop

€200
€100
€60

Honour system payment

First 18 in and i'll do a draw at 2.30pm

1) Dice
2) Dukey
3) DeadMoney
4) Ole
5) Elbows
6) HJ
7) Dice47 (aul lad)
8) KK82
9) BalfeJohn
10) Dobby
11) Shrap

[Solksjaer!]

Throw another mug on the fireplace . In

[Solksjaer!]

Anyone watched BELFAST yet ?

[The Istanbul]

Anyone watched BELFAST yet ?

Much ado about nothing imo.

Beautifully shot and acted though.

[Mellor]

I've no idea, but there are loads of Japanese in Brazil too, apparently, the best Japanese food (after Japan) is in Brazil.

Also how Brazilian Jiu Jitsu developed as byproduct of early Judo.

[Solksjaer!]

Much ado about nothing imo.

Beautifully shot and acted though.

Thats enough for me . Plus a good soundtrack.
cheers

[Lazare]

Plus 3 after 23 days, which includes a double bogey 6 today. They should assign +3 to all non guesses, but so far I've got them all.

He actually did suggest that on a subsequent tweet.

[Solksjaer!]

Also how Brazilian Jiu Jitsu developed as byproduct of early Judo.

You are an MMA guy. ? How do you rate Jiu Jitsu over lets say Kempo or Shotok?

[ionapaul]

In for the sweep!

[eamonhonda]

In for sweep if spaces left.

[Lazare]

Bah, another (literal) coinflip for a 4 and lost.

+5 now.

[dinekes]

Bah, another (literal) coinflip for a 4 and lost.

+5 now.

Or the multi possibilities of one like _ears


Saw a good one from Sean Lock on Countdown that someone forwarded..
Rachel Riley was demonstrating how she went sking one time by donning a Santa beard and a Viking helmet on the show
Sean Lock appraises her briefly and says "That's a challenging wank"