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Originally posted by shrapnel View PostNo idea if he'd make a good coach to be honest. He'd be relentless and a very hard taskmaster. The guy demands more of himself and everyone else on that court. Would definitely love to see him try.
He never gave poor Kwame Brown a chance. Jordan drafts him straight out of high school with the first pick in the draft.
He turns out to be a very sensitive guy(only 18 after all). Jordan comes out of retirement to play alongside him, guide him as face of the franchise etc.
Apparently he can't handle Brown's attitude and ends up crushing the guy completely, one of bigger draft busts.
OJ Mayo(think he went 5th or so one year) challenged Jordan to a 1 on 1 at a Jordan camp when he was 17.
Mayo was regarded as the top ranked HS player in the US at the time.
Jordan was 43 or so, again completely destroyed him 1 on 1. Another guy who never lived up to his hype.
Not sure I can wait till the weekend now.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostI'm not stupid enough to actually say itPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by Murdrum View PostYeah his track record is not one you'd associate with development.
He never gave poor Kwame Brown a chance. Jordan drafts him straight out of high school with the first pick in the draft.
He turns out to be a very sensitive guy(only 18 after all). Jordan comes out of retirement to play alongside him, guide him as face of the franchise etc.
Apparently he can't handle Brown's attitude and ends up crushing the guy completely, one of bigger draft busts.
OJ Mayo(think he went 5th or so one year) challenged Jordan to a 1 on 1 at a Jordan camp when he was 17.
Mayo was regarded as the top ranked HS player in the US at the time.
Jordan was 43 or so, again completely destroyed him 1 on 1. Another guy who never lived up to his hype.
Not sure I can wait till the weekend now.
Personally, i'll wait for netflix
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostAnd it doesn't invalidate the point if WHO are discovered to have done something that maybe wasn't optimal. In an uncertain environment people make probabilistic judgements, as you know. They don't have the ability to make decisions with perfect knowledge of whether it will turn out to be the best decision with hindsight.
Remember when we all laughed at that study published in the FT saying half the population in the UK could have COVID under their model. It didn't matter that they were experts in epidemiology from Oxford, anyone with half a rational brain could see that was silly.
Anyone that understands risk and payoffs treated this completely differently to WHO. Every time they were making advice under uncertainty they got it wrong. Against restrictions, against mask, against domestic or international travel restrictions, against any health measures for travellers. Back when China was dealing with an outbreak, the WHO said there was no evidence of human transmission. When the risk of overreacting too early was low vs the risk of a global pandemic, they repeatedly went on the underreact side. They passed on buying cheap puts for the world.
You're treating "the experts from the WHO said there's no evidence" as far more meaningful than it is. They're not talking about ebola, they're talking about a novel situation with unknown information. They get this wrong repeatedly. They've taken false data from China as face value. They're a weak international organisation that can't step on anyone's toes or independently verify data. So you're giving far too much weight to what that press release actually means.
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Retail investors sure hate money. I was telling people on boards not to invest in oil and there's still people doing it anyway.
Robintrack keeps track of how many Robinhood users hold a particular stock over time. It generates charts showing the relationship between price and popularity, and compiles some lists using the data.
Holding an oil ETF is really expensive. Unless Trump ignites a war with Iran, or blows up the SPR, there's basically no way for any of those buyers to make money.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostMy whole point is that they suck at probabilistic thinking and dealing with uncertainty. It's not like we're looking back and saying with hindsight their decisions weren't optimal. People who deal with risk looked at the same situation and came to completely different conclusions. Taleb published a paper around the same time. The trading thread on 2p2 was forecasting a pandemic.
Remember when we all laughed at that study published in the FT saying half the population in the UK could have COVID under their model. It didn't matter that they were experts in epidemiology from Oxford, anyone with half a rational brain could see that was silly.
Anyone that understands risk and payoffs treated this completely differently to WHO. Every time they were making advice under uncertainty they got it wrong. Against restrictions, against mask, against domestic or international travel restrictions, against any health measures for travellers. Back when China was dealing with an outbreak, the WHO said there was no evidence of human transmission. When the risk of overreacting too early was low vs the risk of a global pandemic, they repeatedly went on the underreact side. They passed on buying cheap puts for the world.
You're treating "the experts from the WHO said there's no evidence" as far more meaningful than it is. They're not talking about ebola, they're talking about a novel situation with unknown information. They get this wrong repeatedly. They've taken false data from China as face value. They're a weak international organisation that can't step on anyone's toes or independently verify data. So you're giving far too much weight to what that press release actually means.
How can you think that the probabilistic approach taken by Taleb/2+2 posters can be remotely similar to that employed by WHO.
There is quite literally zero downside if Taleb is wrong but there are tangible impacts for WHO if they divert resources to a low probability event, no matter the "tail risk" of the event.
Diverting resources in order to purchase cheap puts likely leads to a loss of life.
When WHO gets it wrong, people die, when Taleb gets it wrong, he has new content for his next iteration of the same book.
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Hello BBV, long time no see.
I've started recording a few podcast interviews, the latest is with Jesse May which may be of some interest to people here. Some good poker stories from Vegas, Foxwoods and Atlantic City in the 80s/90s and plenty of talk about gambling culture. We also talk about the early TV poker days (Late Night Poker, Poker Million), working in an Israeli kibbutz and the current betting markets for US politics.
I assume mods are okay with me posting link (apologies if not, and feel free to remove). Happy to hear any feedback.
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Originally posted by Murdrum View PostHow can you think that the probabilistic approach taken by Taleb/2+2 posters can be remotely similar to that employed by WHO.
There is quite literally zero downside if Taleb is wrong but there are tangible impacts for WHO if they divert resources to a low probability event, no matter the "tail risk" of the event.
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Originally posted by Murdrum View PostThat is one of the more glaring examples of a false equivalence I've read.
How can you think that the probabilistic approach taken by Taleb/2+2 posters can be remotely similar to that employed by WHO.
There is quite literally zero downside if Taleb is wrong but there are tangible impacts for WHO if they divert resources to a low probability event, no matter the "tail risk" of the event.
Diverting resources in order to purchase cheap puts likely leads to a loss of life.
When WHO gets it wrong, people die, when Taleb gets it wrong, he has new content for his next iteration of the same book.
Diverting resources in order to purchase cheap puts likely leads to a loss of life.
When WHO gets it wrong, people die, when Taleb gets it wrong, he has new content for his next iteration of the same book.
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...Last edited by Hitchhiker's Guide To...; 23-04-20, 13:18."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Murdrum View PostHow did you conclude that the puts are cheap? What constitutes a cheap put?
The costs were, advising travel restrictions, advising people to wear masks, health checks on travellers. The pay off was preventing an international pandemic, saving trillions of dollars and millions of lives effected.
It's not false equivalence. It's literally the same principal. Asymmetrical pay off. WHO looked at the info and said we're not sure, so advised against any action. Wehn the cost of action was small, and the payoffs gigantic.
If anything traders have more skin in the game, WHO is focused on reputation, traders lose money.
Let me first discount Taleb as someone who has no skin in the game
described in your Fox News link. Yet you've reposted it again here that they advised against masks.
You also talk a bit about WHO saying there is no evidence on something, as if you don't understand that at one point in time there can be no evidence of something and then later there might be evidence of something. Saying there is no evidence of something is the right thing to say in the former situation when there is ... no evidence of something.Last edited by Denny Crane; 23-04-20, 13:42.
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Big phones are very unmanly, getting harder to find ones with good pocketability
Someone in office was showing off their new Samsung S20 ultra the other day , looks ridiculous .
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostIt's millions v trillions.
The costs were, advising travel restrictions, advising people to wear masks, health checks on travellers. The pay off was preventing an international pandemic, saving trillions of dollars and millions of lives effected.
Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostIt's not false equivalence. It's literally the same principal. Asymmetrical pay off. WHO looked at the info and said we're not sure, so advised against any action. Wehn the cost of action was small, and the payoffs gigantic.
Even if WHO & Taleb reached the same conclusion, their choices are still vastly different. WHO may well have predicted the probability of this event the way in which Taleb did.
However WHO cannot respond in the manner Taleb has done, there are far more variables at play. By presenting Taleb/2+2 traders as examples of the event's capacity to be predicted you're setting up a simplistic comparison which does not add weight to your argument.
It's an oversimplification and in turn leads to a false equivalence.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostOnce again there's the misunderstanding about how to judge probabilities.
One was a judgement on a moving event (transmission), so 'no evidence' is clearly a point-in-time statement. The other was a statement about a specific historical event that has finished, so is intended as a static statement of fact.
Unless you are actually looking to make a point, this should be fairly obvious!
Finished? The haven't even had a proper investigation? China blocked access for weeks. Even if it did originate in a lab, how likely do you think it is that the WHO would find the hard evidence? ANd how hard do you think they're working on it when they've restricted access and don't want to cause tension with China?
I remember the UN initially saying that there was no evidence of Russian involvement in the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash. That was a specific historical event.
Anyway I think we've both spent enough time on this.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostAre there any words sweeter in the English language than 'I told you so'?
Fully enjoying my moment here when something I warned would be a fuckup if they didn't implement it my way three months back has indeed turned out to be an unmitigated fuckup, as duly predicted.
There has to be a relation to schadenfreude for this smug feeling.Originally posted by Lazare View PostI find in that scenario the impact of 'I told you so' is far greater when you don't smugly say it, but rather get stuck in with solutions. People know it. Defence mechanisms kick in when you say it though and you become the prick. When you don't mention it but solve it you're the hero.
Have lost more or less the whole week trying to find a way to dig out of the ten year deep hole created, one feckin byte. No schadenfreude because the shit always comes rolling downhill and my place is at the bottom of the hill with a bucketTurning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by 6starpool View PostLet me guess, the new Apple SE phone is a perfect size?
Se getting rave reviews everywhere for value for money btw
But Apple are equally as guilty of supersizing with their high end phones, it’s out of control now
It’s fine for women with their handbags
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostThe Taleb fund is a smart idea by the way. But it acts as a constant protection against catastrophic risk. It's not that Taleb did something specific for this particular outbreak - that was just an event that occurred that triggered the ongoing position to payoff, like insurance. Which makes sense as his whole point is about the unexpected nature of these events.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostGreen Party demands for entering government - which seems like it is going to happen. A few are debatable, a few are impractical, but not a bad overall set of ideas.
- Will you commit to an average annual reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 7 per cent?
- Will you commit to an ambitious programme of development of, and investment where necessary in, renewable energy infrastructure including off-shore wind, grid and interconnector upgrades and community energy projects?
- Will you commit to ending the issue of exploration licences for offshore gas exploration?
- Will you commit to ceasing the construction of new fossil fuel infrastructure, particularly LNG import terminals that could allow the entry of unconventional liquefied natural gas into the Irish energy mix?
- Will you commit to the exclusive provision of public housing, social housing and cost rental housing on public lands?
- Will you commit to prioritising urban renewal in line with a 'Town Centre First' model?
- Will you commit to a comprehensive deep retrofit programme as part of a programme for government?
- Will you commit to convening a social dialogue process representative of all key stakeholders with a view to developing of a new social contract?
- Will you commit to working towards ending the Direct Provision system and replacing it with a not-for-profit system based on accommodation provided through existing or new approved housing bodies?
- Will you commit to setting us on a clear and certain path to meeting our UN obligation to spend 0.7pc of our national income on Overseas Development Aid?
- Will you commit to the development of a national land use plan which will inform both the new national economic plan and the new social contract?
- Will you commit to rebalancing our transport infrastructure spend, dedicating at least 20pc of infrastructure expenditure in transport to cycling and walking and ensuring that other public transport infrastructure investment is allocated at least two-thirds of the remaining infrastructure budget?
- Will you commit to establishing a trial of Universal Basic Income (UBI) within the lifetime of the next Government?
- Will you commit to the revision of the existing National Development Plan so that we can meet our New Social Contract goals and climate change targets?
- Will you commit to a review of the State's response to the Covid-19 pandemic, undertaken by the Oireachtas, to enable us to learn lessons for the future?
- Will you provide a clear and detailed analysis of how your Joint Framework Document is to be financed?
- Will you commit to publishing and implementing a Green Procurement Policy?
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Originally posted by shrapnel View Postfor those waiting for Ryanair refunds. Just got my voucher after 3 weeks. Still waiting for Aer lingus one thoughHer sky-ness
© 5starpool
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There's a massive problem with the WHO definition of "no evidence". It can mean anything from "there is good evidence but not conclusive" to "this is total nonsense" and anything in between. They manipulate this vagueness depending on the goal of the messaging."I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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I had over €800 of flights to and from LCY booked with AL and they were still scheduled to fly with a small change in time but then I noticed that they were using the same flight number but had switched to Heathrow.
Rang them and once I pointed out the change of airport I got cash back no problem .
Looks like the process to get cash back off Ryanair involves more than €500 of time, stress and hassle. We'll see nothing he's ever done has hurt him before but thie way they have engineered this seems like a case of 'Too clever is dumb'.Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by DeeBrown View PostNote to self.
If Denny and I ever agree on anything
I'll immediately reverse my position.
Invariably arrived at the right decision too, but the process was a joy to behold. Especially when he would curse himself."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Guest
Seems like travellers are free to flout social distancing and travel guidelines as they see fit
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Guest
WHO didn’t look too hard, Chinese have form for messing, some reckless cunts all the same
Exploring in a laboratory what's dreaded in nature, a team of Chinese scientists have combined H5N1 avian influenza, which is highly lethal but doesn't transmit easily between people, with the pandemic 2009 flu strain.
Chinese Scientists Create New Mutant Bird-Flu Virus
The experiments, described May 2 in Science, reflect a controversial approach to studying influenza: attempting to create strains in a lab that would, if accidentally released or used for nefarious purposes, pose a potentially global health threat.Last edited by Guest; 23-04-20, 15:09.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostI did use to work with a guy who was a very smart dude. We would all listen in awe as he would argue both sides of an issue - with himself, out loud.
Invariably arrived at the right decision too, but the process was a joy to behold. Especially when he would curse himself.
What are people's experience of football not being on? Every FA Cup or International weekend nonsense was a pain, but now after this amount of weeks I really couldn't care less.
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostHaha, I dunno, maybe we can do a virtual race some day.
It might be 2022 to get HJ legitimately out to compete in good conscience as you know he likes to be in compliance.
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostSome of you may be glad to know I've picked up a calf injury and am now forced into temporarily giving up the super spreading.People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by rounders123 View PostThats a good idea. Maybe run that 800M distance around a a local soccer or gaa pitch each incl corner flags at the same day and time with a tracker and post your times?. Around a pitch means at least the ground will be level enough at least.
It might be 2022 to get HJ legitimately out to compete in good conscience as you know he likes to be in compliance.
We should set a date, maybe in two months? Loser has to give 25 euros to charity and 25 euros worth of craft beer to the winner.
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Originally posted by rounders123 View PostThats a good idea. Maybe run that 800M distance around a a local soccer or gaa pitch each incl corner flags at the same day and time with a tracker and post your times?. Around a pitch means at least the ground will be level enough at least.
It might be 2022 to get HJ legitimately out to compete in good conscience as you know he likes to be in compliance.
Funny, it was doing some 800m reps last Saturday where I tore the calf.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View PostThat's a great idea. I need a bit of motivation to get out running again.
We should set a date, maybe in two months? Loser has to give 25 euros to charity and 25 euros worth of craft beer to the winner.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostJordan Peterson recommends that.
What are people's experience of football not being on? Every FA Cup or International weekend nonsense was a pain, but now after this amount of weeks I really couldn't care less.
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