Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Wordle Gummidge

[Solksjaer!]

[mocata]

Surface Pro for laptop. 8gb Ram and i5 model is plenty for what a laptops use case should be. OneNote for information storage and organisation, Teams/Zoom calls and presenting reports & screenshots. Heavier lifting and modeling should be done at a Desk on a workstation spec pc. Proper workloads on AWS/Azure then as Emmet suggested. There's a place for all 3 sets of resources

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[Keane]

What was the topic when he noticed Little Marcos hands shaking while drinking water in the debate? Nobody knows or cares. What we do know or care is that it was the end of a Trump opponent, so it's a risk factor. Only seeking out confirmatory news is all very comforting until it isn't.

I think your misremembering that. Rubio's fall off a cliff moment was when one of the other candidates (ChristieI think?) interrupted him while he was giving a canned response to some question and pointed out to everyone how Rubio has no brain and can only repeat canned responses. Rubio then tried over and over to start his canned response from the start, while everyone pointed and laughed at him every time. He was like a robot stuck in a reboot loop. Google 'Marcobot' for a reminder.

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[mocata]

Never gonna be a waste of time or money buying and building even a top whack PC. My read on it it, once you go exceed the limits of what a decent rig can do you end up looking for cloud resources anyway so going for top-whack and price components would gain diminishing returns compared to bursting up your AWS/Azure spec on demand

[The C Kid]

Surface Pro for laptop. 8gb Ram and i5 model is plenty for what a laptops use case should be. OneNote for information storage and organisation, Teams/Zoom calls and presenting reports & screenshots. Heavier lifting and modeling should be done at a Desk on a workstation spec pc. Proper workloads on AWS/Azure then as Emmet suggested. There's a place for all 3 sets of resources

I looked at this, but i think I prefer a laptop though. I was going to go with the Surface Laptop. What's the Surface Pro like for typing with that keyboard set up? Does it take much to get used to?

I've had Macbooks since 2013 but seems to be little point getting another given the limited uses I have for it.

[mocata]

I am a big fan,The keys have a decent amount of travel and a satisfying click. I use the pen a hell of a lot for marking things up, this may not match everyone's workflow but for me its been a game changer. Would be best to go to Harvey Norman or somewhere and try keyboard out for yourself, these things can be subjective.

[Hectorjelly]

I've a big bet on Biden as posted a few weeks ago. I'm just thinking of topping up the bet so was trying to think of risks and the debate risk seemed like the mega one.

The debates are always a risk for the frontrunner because nothing else has the potential for such a ratings change.

Trump will have very little to lose, so I expect fireworks.

[Raoul Duke III]

The debates will be an irrelevance.

[Tar.Aldarion]

I see econ and finance is now over 600 points in UCD. It's mad really that they've put that type of premium on something that just isn't that difficult.

Points have nothing to do with difficulty, just popularity. As 90 percent of my 300 point course that droped out found out.

[ComradeCollie]

Anyone here go to the anti mask protest today?

EhuqobHUMAAu2HA?format=jpg&name=900x900.jpg

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[Degag]

Wasn't 600 points the maximum you could ever get? Was when i was doing my leaving anyway i think

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[Strewelpeter]

Poker tournament Alert......

If any of ye fancy a game tomorrow night (Saturday)....

This will be the second year of this ga,e hosted by old IPB reg Caf

Last year was live in The Loft in Naas but this year will be under the Home Games on Pokerstars

It is a game in honour of his brother and my (our) old friend 72over

Its a €20 game with an optional rebuy and add-on.

Expected to be listed for 8-9pm to suit some Aussies who want to play.

Normally 50% goes to a charity chosen by Dave & Brian mum so this year it can tbe organised Live by the loft so they would like the winner to follow suit with their own or ask the organisers for thier chosen one.

"The more the merrier! €20 rebuy with a top up at the break. 50% of prize pool is to go to a charity (been chosen by my mother the last 2 years). Guessing this year it's up to the winners to donate it be cause its online where previously the Loft in Naas split it in half"

Anyway anyone from here that knew or met 72over knows what a loss is his to them.

Deets - Pokerstars: home club Club: 3224681 Code: Naasistheplace

I hope to be in and would be nice to have a few in for a beer and chat on here for the craic

bump

[Raoul Duke III]

Ulster are very one-dimensional. That said, Leinster will need to go up a gear for next week to beat the cheating slimeballs.

[Keane]

bump

Is it too late to jump in now?

[DeeBrown]

Yeah that would be what I'd be putting the chips on, with a proper cooling system etc.

Surface products are awesome.
Just be aware that the latest generation of Surface Pro models only include a fan in versions with an i7 processor.

[Lazare]

Toots & The Maytals were lined up for an Olympia gig next Autumn. Would have been all over that. Such a shame.

RIP

My personal favourite, love this track..

[Raoul Duke III]

I would be concerned. One would imagine that Biden's potential downside for the debates is a lot steeper than Trump's.

I'm going to put up a long-ish post here explaining my rationale for why I think Biden is such a great price at the current odds. This is more for my own benefit but please feel free to rip me a new one where my thinking is fuzzy or just plain wrong. Or feel free to suggest a wager.

My position is based on two primary factors - data and politics.

Data:

1. There is a huge gap between what the polls say and what the betting market says. The polls have consistently given Biden a 7-8 point+ national lead and (crucially) a consistent lead in most of the battleground states. Trump has not gotten a bounce anywhere in the electoral cycle - these numbers are locked in and it is very hard to see Trump turning them around in the volume that he requires.
2. Polling methodology...."but the polls were wrong in 2016." Yes they were - but the pollsters have adjusted their methodology since 2016 and are, if anything, likely to be overweighting the Trump vote. The 2018 mid-terms used new methodology and were consistently correct. I believe we'll see the same in the Presidential election.
3. Popularity. Trump has a very high net unfavourable rating. Consistently more than 10%. You cannot win a Presidential election with those numbers.
4. The most reputable predictive sites are 538 and The Economist\YouGov. 538 has consistently being putting Biden at ~75%. The Economist\YouGov have Biden at over 80% for months now.

Simply put, if we believe the data - which is telling a very consistent story (few undecided voters, Trump unpopular President, Biden well ahead) - Biden should be 1.25 (1\4) and Trump about 4.00 (3/1). This betting market is irrational with Biden available at ~1.85 and Trump only 2.25.

Now onto:

Politics:

1. As I've said repeatedly, there is a massive difference between 2016 and 2020; 2016 was a referendum on Clinton. 2020 is a referendum on Trump. Trump cannot win a referendum on himself - he is a uniquely divisive figure who is even now doubling down on that divisiveness at a point when he should be trying to pivot to the centre and pull in some of the (few) undecided voters.
2. Trump is trapped in a negative news cycle - covid, the economy, bad-mouthing the military, Woodward tapes etc. He is stuck playing defence and is doing it so ineptly that it almost looks like he is trying to sabotage his own campaign.
3. Trump is no longer an unknown, exciting quantity - the American electorate know him well now and they don't like what they see. See point 3 in the Data section.
4. Biden is not Hilary Clinton. She was just a terrible candidate who managed to demotivate her own supporters to such an extent that she depressed her own turnout. She also had a whiff of scandal about her that the Trump campaign exploited to the max. Biden by contrast has no real skeletons for Trump to seize on.
5. There is no signficant third party candidate this time. Last time, third party candidates took ~5% of the vote and this (the Green candidate especially) was key to Trump narrowly winning states like PA, MI and WI.
6. The Dems have a significant fundraising advantage.
7. There will be significantly higher youth and minority voting this time, this heavily favours Biden.

Overall, I think this is a crazy market and have taken a big position at average odds of ~1.87. I'll continue to add to it while the betting markets remain stable.

I'm also looking at a few bets on the Biden margin of victory, which I expect to be large and potentially >150 EC votes as the Trump negative momentum grows.

[Keane]

I'm going to put up a long-ish post here explaining my rationale for why I think Biden is such a great price at the current odds. This is more for my own benefit but please feel free to rip me a new one where my thinking is fuzzy or just plain wrong. Or feel free to suggest a wager.

My position is based on two primary factors - data and politics.

Data:

1. There is a huge gap between what the polls say and what the betting market says. The polls have consistently given Biden a 7-8 point+ national lead and (crucially) a consistent lead in most of the battleground states. Trump has not gotten a bounce anywhere in the electoral cycle - these numbers are locked in and it is very hard to see Trump turning them around in the volume that he requires.
2. Polling methodology...."but the polls were wrong in 2016." Yes they were - but the pollsters have adjusted their methodology since 2016 and are, if anything, likely to be overweighting the Trump vote. The 2018 mid-terms used new methodology and were consistently correct. I believe we'll see the same in the Presidential election.
3. Popularity. Trump has a very high net unfavourable rating. Consistently more than 10%. You cannot win a Presidential election with those numbers.
4. The most reputable predictive sites are 538 and The Economist\YouGov. 538 has consistently being putting Biden at ~75%. The Economist\YouGov have Biden at over 80% for months now.

Simply put, if we believe the data - which is telling a very consistent story (few undecided voters, Trump unpopular President, Biden well ahead) - Biden should be 1.25 (1\4) and Trump about 4.00 (3/1). This betting market is irrational with Biden available at ~1.85 and Trump only 2.25.

Now onto:

Politics:

1. As I've said repeatedly, there is a massive difference between 2016 and 2020; 2016 was a referendum on Clinton. 2020 is a referendum on Trump. Trump cannot win a referendum on himself - he is a uniquely divisive figure who is even now doubling down on that divisiveness at a point when he should be trying to pivot to the centre and pull in some of the (few) undecided voters.
2. Trump is trapped in a negative news cycle - covid, the economy, bad-mouthing the military, Woodward tapes etc. He is stuck playing defence and is doing it so ineptly that it almost looks like he is trying to sabotage his own campaign.
3. Trump is no longer an unknown, exciting quantity - the American electorate know him well now and they don't like what they see. See point 3 in the Data section.
4. Biden is not Hilary Clinton. She was just a terrible candidate who managed to demotivate her own supporters to such an extent that she depressed her own turnout. She also had a whiff of scandal about her that the Trump campaign exploited to the max. Biden by contrast has no real skeletons for Trump to seize on.
5. There is no signficant third party candidate this time. Last time, third party candidates took ~5% of the vote and this (the Green candidate especially) was key to Trump narrowly winning states like PA, MI and WI.
6. The Dems have a significant fundraising advantage.
7. There will be significantly higher youth and minority voting this time, this heavily favours Biden.

Overall, I think this is a crazy market and have taken a big position at average odds of ~1.87. I'll continue to add to it while the betting markets remain stable.

I'm also looking at a few bets on the Biden margin of victory, which I expect to be large and potentially >150 EC votes as the Trump negative momentum grows.

How do you price in the fact that Trump will try to cheat as much as possible?

[Raoul Duke III]

How do you price in the fact that Trump will try to cheat as much as possible?

Define 'cheating' and what impact it will have. Then tell me how much you would price it in.

[Keane]

Define 'cheating' and what impact it will have. Then tell me how much you would price it in.

I haven't a notion, interested to hear what you might think. I agree with everything you have said above and feel myself, yourself and Solks could form an unlikely syndicate to hoover up all the scared Trump money but don't know what level of concern to have around the extent to which various forms of cheating may factor.

If I felt the result was going to be fully based on the votes cast I'd have a lot on Trump getting rinsed. If I had to go out on a limb I don't think it'll be a big factor but who knows

[Raoul Duke III]

I haven't a notion, interested to hear what you might think. I agree with everything you have said above and feel myself, yourself and Solks could form an unlikely syndicate to hoover up all the scared Trump money but don't know what level of concern to have around the extent to which various forms of cheating may factor.

To be cynical, there is cheating in every electoral cycle - the specifically American form tends to be voter suppression rather than the casting of false ballots.

I think that the mail-in preference this time will actually encourage some voters to cast ballots who otherwise might not - these tend to be Dems.

[Solksjaer!]

I'm kind of hurt RD111 had to resort to such detail . I've told him already Trump is toast what more do ye need .

[Raoul Duke III]

I'm kind of hurt RD111 had to resort to such detail . I've told him already Trump is toast what more do ye need .

Reason No 1 - Solks said so.

Lumpage.

[The Istanbul]

DJ Spiral got kicked out of Lidl/Aldi for not wearing a mask, posted it on Twitter and then deleted it when the reaction wasn't what he had hoped for

What an absolute fkn muppet he is

[Raoul Duke III]

If you really want to go nuts on a very detailed set of polling data, look at this.

I found sections 20-22 to be fairly eye-popping, in terms of Trump antipathy. People by contrast tend not to have strong feelings about Biden.

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[hotspur]

I'm going to put up a long-ish post here explaining my rationale for why I think Biden is such a great price at the current odds. This is more for my own benefit but please feel free to rip me a new one where my thinking is fuzzy or just plain wrong. Or feel free to suggest a wager.

I don't doubt any of your data or analysis, I was only saying that the debates could make a difference. I know that the question of the effects of the Presidential debates is one without a clear answer. But given that the election will be won based on the decisions of the undecideds in the key battle ground States (who are information poor people according to research), and a 77 year old guy is up against a pitbull terrier who has likely been obsessed with how to destroy him, I am a bit concerned about it.

I also fully expect Ruski derived leaks about how Biden is a paedophile cannibal to emerge.

I hope you win your bets, and will likely cry in despair if you don't.

[Hectorjelly]

You can stream the documentary on Irish Hip hop here: it's incredible, makes me really miss gigs. https://www.redbull.com/ie-en/videos/origins-film

[Lazare]

Have just finished watching this, and other than watching it again I've no idea what to do with myself..

[Keane]

I don't doubt any of your data or analysis, I was only saying that the debates could make a difference. I know that the question of the effects of the Presidential debates is one without a clear answer. But given that the election will be won based on the decisions of the undecideds in the key battle ground States (who are information poor people according to research), and a 77 year old guy is up against a pitbull terrier who has likely been obsessed with how to destroy him, I am a bit concerned about it.

I also fully expect Ruski derived leaks about how Biden is a paedophile cannibal to emerge.

I hope you win your bets, and will likely cry in despair if you don't.

I think the most important point here is that there are historically few people who class themselves as undecided this year, which is probably a big part of why the polls have been historically stable despite the most bizarre year imaginable. I'm casting my mind back to 2016 when after every debate Trump fans thought Trump rinsed Hilary and all the Trump haters thought Hilary rinsed Trump, so they probably had a tiny impact.

[Lazare]

Raoul's post was like a warm cozy blanket that cost me €50.

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[Keane]

Theres only two realistic risks:

The debates. Could he do something that makes him look senile and voters go: fuck, we just can't vote for him.

Election shenanigans. If Trump is winning on election night, but postal votes are likely to swing heavily Joe. Does Trump do something?

Maybe these end up minor. But it's worth considering all the risks as right now it seems like a chance to nearly double a significant amount of cash almost with no risk. I'm thinking about going in again in terms of the bet. Just want to be sure I'm not making a mistake.

Something very reassuring I did read earlier is that Joe is massively outraising Trump in terms of money. So seems like a lot of people are breaking Bidens way. Trump might have the non-advertising airways because of his role, but as Raoul noted he is using all that airway time to defend against catastrophic mistakes.

I think the chances of Biden's worst line in the debates being worse than Trump's worst line in the debates is zero. The idea of anyone who genuinely intends to vote for Biden being convinced by a comparatively titanic performance by Trump in the debates to switch is also zero. Whatever number of genuine undecideds exist, the notion that Biden says something so much dumber than 'I went to an Ivy League school, I have the best words' (to pick an almost laughably benign example) and Trump doesn't that they are swayed to Trump? Not happening IMO.

I'd be more worried about him trying to claim victory and essentially try to coup his way back in but I think realistically his chances of getting something like that through are low as well. The system will pull through ultimately in that scenario I feel.

[elbows]

I think the chances of Biden's worst line in the debates being worse than Trump's worst line in the debates is zero. The idea of anyone who genuinely intends to vote for Biden being convinced by a comparatively titanic performance by Trump in the debates to switch is also zero. Whatever number of genuine undecideds exist, the notion that Biden says something so much dumber than 'I went to an Ivy League school, I have the best words' (to pick an almost laughably benign example) and Trump doesn't that they are swayed to Trump? Not happening IMO.

I'd be more worried about him trying to claim victory and essentially try to coup his way back in but I think realistically his chances of getting something like that through are low as well. The system will pull through ultimately in that scenario I feel.

He should walk out with a portable drug test that the cops use and ask him to take it.

[elbows]

See FF 10% in latest opinion poll

[ComradeCollie]

He should walk out with a portable drug test that the cops use and ask him to take it.

Who should? Trump has already publicly asked for both of them to be drug tested before the debates.

I'd be a bit worried that Trump will physically assault Biden, or call him an n-word lover.

[elbows]

Who should? Trump has already publicly asked for both of them to be drug tested before the debates.

I'd be a bit worried that Trump will physically assault Biden, or call him an n-word lover.

Biden should ask Trump. All that Adderal and coke would blow up the machine.

[elbows]

Who should? Trump has already publicly asked for both of them to be drug tested before the debates.

I'd be a bit worried that Trump will physically assault Biden, or call him an n-word lover.

Biden should ask Trump. All that Adderal and coke would blow up the machine.

[Strewelpeter]

Unless you are saying that prejudice against post menopausal women is a disqualifying factor I still don't understand how HRC Was a terrible candidate especially when compared to Biden

Can't disagree with much else RDIII says except that he's probably misunderestimating how big a role money will play. It's not clear at all that the likes of Putin or the Koch's will continue to finance Trump, he certainly won't be spending his own money because he doesn't have any.

[ComradeCollie]

Never crossed my mind that it was treason to shop in Lidl or Aldi

[Raoul Duke III]

I don't doubt any of your data or analysis, I was only saying that the debates could make a difference. I know that the question of the effects of the Presidential debates is one without a clear answer. But given that the election will be won based on the decisions of the undecideds in the key battle ground States (who are information poor people according to research), and a 77 year old guy is up against a pitbull terrier who has likely been obsessed with how to destroy him, I am a bit concerned about it.

I also fully expect Ruski derived leaks about how Biden is a paedophile cannibal to emerge.

I hope you win your bets, and will likely cry in despair if you don't.

Well if you want some good cheer and also why I said the debates are an irrelevance....here you go. Trump got trounced in the debates last time.

And Biden actually won 2 of the 3 Democratic debates.

Forget the debates. Nobody gives a shit or has the attention span.

[Raoul Duke III]

I think the most important point here is that there are historically few people who class themselves as undecided this year, which is probably a big part of why the polls have been historically stable despite the most bizarre year imaginable. I'm casting my mind back to 2016 when after every debate Trump fans thought Trump rinsed Hilary and all the Trump haters thought Hilary rinsed Trump, so they probably had a tiny impact.

Not correct. Read the link provided to hotspur.

Then forget the debates.

[Raoul Duke III]

There won't be shenanigans.

1. Biden will win so big it won't matter. Like landslide big (>10% in the national poll).
2. Nobody on the GOP side will back Trump up when he starts spouting crazy shit. They'll drop him faster than you can say 'grab 'em by the pussy'.

[Raoul Duke III]

I'd be a bit worried that Trump will physically assault Biden, or call him an n-word lover.

That would be great.

[Raoul Duke III]

Fairly putting myself out there if wrong.

[Solksjaer!]

The debate this year will be called The roast (toast) of Donald Trump.

Comrade Collie falling for Trumps reverso on the drugs

[Solksjaer!]

The result will be like VAR this year, everyone fist pumping and then Trump cries foul .

[Degag]

Never crossed my mind that it was treason to shop in Lidl or Aldi

Pity she didn't get the kneeling on the neck treatment when she was arrested a couple weeks ago

[Raoul Duke III]

Unless you are saying that prejudice against post menopausal women is a disqualifying factor I still don't understand how HRC Was a terrible candidate especially when compared to Biden

Emailgate, Whitewater, Benghazi...the Clinton name generally.

And the fact she was a woman didn't help.

Don't get me wrong, I think she would probably have been a competent president. But she was a terrible candidate.

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[Raoul Duke III]

Noticed a watch that a Saudi student gave me many years ago when moving. I think I was helpful to her on something. Can't really remember on what. And she turns up one day and goes I just wanted to get you a little something for all the great help you were. A lovely looking watch. I said thanks and never really looked at it again. Was bringing it in yesterday to get a battery as decided I might wear a watch and it looks good. Looked it up and it seems, unless I am greatly mistaken it would have cost about a grand to buy. A Raymond Weil Tango watch. Can that be right? I mentioned it in passing in the jewelry shop was it original and he said yeah definitely. A watch that cost a grand, jaysus christ. I don't feel my reaction would have portrayed any knowledge of who Raymond Weil is when saying thank you. Just thought it might be a weird Saudi tradition to give a random watch as a gift. The Chinese always give cartons of cigs as a gift, and the Lebanese aftershave (no idea why), so who knows what the saudi thing is.

Any chance you are too righteous\thick to recognise a bribe when given one?

[ComradeCollie]

Kid wanders into the bedroom and goes 'Can we get the Ryan Mystery Safe exclusively available through Target stores?'. They're a sucker for a good ad! Like he obv hadn't a clue the words he was saying but the product placement on the YouTube video was so strong that he managed to convey the ad message in its entirety to a responsible adult who could make a purchasing decision (if living in the US).

I'm expecting them to say 'like and subscribe' instead of goodnight someday soon!

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