Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Wordle Gummidge

[Western_Sean]

.....Anyone else watching with interest how to take advantage of the recession? I think this recession is going to be very interesting as it’s really hitting rural, younger and lower paid folk first and will create an even bigger financial divide. If it drags on for an extended period it will eventually ensnare everybody but as usual the axe does not fall evenly. Challenges and opportunities and quite a bit of disruption abound. Transport, property and lifestyles are in for massive disruption.

Very interested in views on this as well - I've been in a few conversations where the feeling was that this recession would be more incident on urban areas than one might expect. Damage to the high street, the service industries and lack of business travel seem likely to increase the financial divide in urban as well as rural communities.

It is much harder to pick asset classes you might like coming out of this one than the last recession I think.

• Commercial property is problematic since rents are not being paid at worst and under pressure at best - structurally behavioural/societal changes look likely to undermine this asset class.
• Discretionary income-focused stocks seem in trouble and likely to stay that way for a while
• It's hard to like lots of technology names at current valuations.
• Inflation seems likely so it's hard to like cash or bonds in the long term at current valuations
• I'm not a fan of small scale residential property ownership and that's the only scale I can afford :-(
• It seems intuitively wrong to be thinking about investing in traditionally defensive sectors on the way out of a recession.
• There's probably a structural rise of China fall of the USA in progress but I don't know what the best way to invest in that trend might be.

There are much more well-versed folk than me around here though so looking forward to hearing a range of views.

[ComradeCollie]

Bolsonaro positive

[Goodluck2me]

Very interested in views on this as well - I've been in a few conversations where the feeling was that this recession would be more incident on urban areas than one might expect. Damage to the high street, the service industries and lack of business travel seem likely to increase the financial divide in urban as well as rural communities.

It is much harder to pick asset classes you might like coming out of this one than the last recession I think.

• Commercial property is problematic since rents are not being paid at worst and under pressure at best - structurally behavioural/societal changes look likely to undermine this asset class.
• Discretionary income-focused stocks seem in trouble and likely to stay that way for a while
• It's hard to like lots of technology names at current valuations.
• Inflation seems likely so it's hard to like cash or bonds in the long term at current valuations
• I'm not a fan of small scale residential property ownership and that's the only scale I can afford :-(
• It seems intuitively wrong to be thinking about investing in traditionally defensive sectors on the way out of a recession.
• There's probably a structural rise of China fall of the USA in progress but I don't know what the best way to invest in that trend might be.

There are much more well-versed folk than me around here though so looking forward to hearing a range of views.

I agree on the inflation concept but I don’t think that going to be even a 2023 issue, you’ll have plenty headroom. I like buying depressed cyclicals that should bounce back even reasonably well on a recovery, but with a focus on those with abundant liquidity to ride through an extended covid period.

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[Solksjaer!]

Bolsonaro positive

Jayz that new tracker APP is good . When did you meet him ?

[Solksjaer!]

This recession if it changes anything will be about the rise of cities, not the rise of rural imo. But happy cities - with more social opportunities. not cities that are essentially roads with amenities dotted around. The feeling of isolation is crap. The last thing this event has thought most people is that we want to spend more time with ourselves ["confinement was crap, what I should do is buy a hut in the woods to really let the confinement kick in"]. We actually like being part of bigger communities with loads of thriving links. The virus will go, quickly, but what will remain is that slight dread of isolation.

Ah here Donald.

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[hotspur]

I went into one KBC branch casually dressed and they offered me x. I tried again dressed differently, and they offered me 3x. How they count bonuses seems quite arbitrary!

"Preposterous! That €10k was merely a bet that Barnaby couldn't pass Mary off as a lady, and that €50k was a sure thing that Montague would become a common wretch if we conspired to strip him of everything!"

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[Denny Crane]

There was studies done of people who were teenagers in the US during the Great Depression during the 1930s. Followed them their whole life and compared to equivalents who didn't live through the depression. It affected their financial behaviour their whole life no matter how successful they grew up to be. Maybe this outbreak this year isn't substantial enough to change behaviours in the same way, but shows how important these big events can be.

Yeah I was gonna post about that before.

What have this generation learned? Right now it's too always BTFD. YOLO it into any crap going. There's thousands of young people in the states who were bored at home and bought TSLA calls, and who were on the other side of the market when Buffett dumped his airlines.

They'll living in a time when the fed always has your back.

[Opr]

PS - i would put myself forward as a player for a syndicate for an IPB WSoP as a good candidate except...

except i know in my heart of heart who the best tournament player is here over the last 2 years by a country mile.

By mile i mean 10 miles.

Would this person be interested in being the horsey? I would think most good players are trying to quality or buyin themselves given the value that it should be as a tournament.

It isn't looking like there is a major interest in the idea at the moment regardless.

Thread here for anyone who wants to just register an interest. You won't be held to it, just trying to gauge if it is possible to get close to the number.

[Raoul Duke III]

Personally we chose to live out in the extreme west of Kildare for the lifestyle

Pretty sure you live in Longford, at least that's what it feels like the length of time it takes to get there

[DeadParrot]

Was recently enough approved for a mortgage (moving house now next month) and was never asked for PayPal. Was through UB so maybe they don't do that?? Had deposited a few small amounts onto poker sites in last while but prob would have steered clear if thought they would be looking for PayPal and the likes.

Was dealing with a broker pre covid that wanted everything revolut and PayPal.
Dropped into local ptsb to get idea of approval in principle and he practically bit my hand off with an offer just on base figures and savings. Am holding off as wages have 15% garnish at the moment but even with that was pretty much good to go up to past what we need.

[dinekes]

Was walking around the corridors today. Swishing and swooshing. Showing the other patients what they could achieve if they put a bit of Irish effort in. Get back to the room and about ten minutes later feel this searing pain like a line across the back. Give the nurse a ring, in she comes and I tell her: I know this is awkward given I was just galivanting around the place but I think I'm having a heart attack.

It turns out that that was just the side effect of lying down or sitting down for five days. The back muscles had literally forgotten how to support walking. She also noted how the place where I had a pain is not where the heart is. I must have had such a shit biology teacher. Couldn't even begin to guess where things like kidneys or LIVERS are, and was surprised to learn recently that what seems like the stomach is actually the guts. Anyway, just goes to show how you can even lose the ability to fucking walk if you don't do it for a few days. Bit mad. Back pain aside, there's a echocardiogram planned for tomorrow that all going well means everything is done and dusted a mere seven days after the operation. Maybe those few years of worrying were a slight over-reaction, or perhaps thats results-based-thinking.

Explains the prodigous drinking.

[ComradeCollie]

Was walking around the corridors today.

Is that your first time up and walking? Pretty sure they forced me up on the third day, though they had 2 people accompany me in case I fell over.

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[oleras]

On the count of 3 breath out...

[dinekes]

Mixed packet gravy with chicken stock and deglazed the pan with that, added some dijon mustard ..very tasty

Going through a chicken, 2 veg and fluffy potatoes binge at the minute.

[DeadParrot]

Jaysus,
was there really an IPB meetup this day 8 years ago?
Feels like a lifetime ago

[Raoul Duke III]

Mixed packet gravy with chicken stock and deglazed the pan with that, added some dijon mustard ..very tasty

Going through a chicken, 2 veg and fluffy potatoes binge at the minute.

you may want to rethink your definition of 'binge'

[dobby]

nah. today was more the self-imposed 'put on normal clothes and walk around like a normie' day. Been moving a fair bit just within the room itself, although mainly yesterday when I started trying to deliberately do some non-necessary movement. All the days have kinda blurred into one, or maybe am purposefully erasing them, but might have been day three or four making a first getting up from the bed and going to the seat move, with a bit of help. Can't remember tbh. They took out those fecking pacemaker lines today - oh that felt something! Not painful so much as that the sensation shouldn't be happening inside a persons body. Remember you remarking on the same thing when it happened.

I cant be the only one hoping to see a photo or 2 of the wound/scar.

If it's too early or you dont want to, that's cool obvs. I'm a weirdo that loves looking at those kinda scars.

[oleras]

Me thinks dobby doesn't believe you Hitch...

[ComradeCollie]

I cant be the only one hoping to see a photo or 2 of the wound/scar.

If it's too early or you dont want to, that's cool obvs. I'm a weirdo that loves looking at those kinda scars.

There ye go ye weirdo. Can't get spoiler tags to work on photos here

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[ionapaul]

Hmm, certain places see more mask wearing than others. I was in Aldi in Sandyford yesterday and about 50% of shoppers were wearing a mask (myself included), skewed towards the older shoppers for sure. Zero staff were wearing masks, which surprised me somewhat, as many had been up until recently. Wife was on the Green Line Luas yesterday and said just over 50% were masked up. I'm certain that in Ireland, as anywhere else probably, socio-economic faultlines can be determined by visible uptake of mask wearing!

Going for a meal & few pints this Friday with some friends in a local gastro-pub, will be very interested to see what the scene is like. Don't plan to wear a mask in that situation!

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[Solksjaer!]

[dobby]

There ye go ye weirdo. Can't get spoiler tags to work on photos here

That's fucking class. Ty

[Raoul Duke III]

Hmm, certain places see more mask wearing than others. I was in Aldi in Sandyford yesterday and about 50% of shoppers were wearing a mask (myself included), skewed towards the older shoppers for sure. Zero staff were wearing masks, which surprised me somewhat, as many had been up until recently. Wife was on the Green Line Luas yesterday and said just over 50% were masked up. I'm certain that in Ireland, as anywhere else probably, socio-economic faultlines can be determined by visible uptake of mask wearing!

Going for a meal & few pints this Friday with some friends in a local gastro-pub, will be very interested to see what the scene is like. Don't plan to wear a mask in that situation!

I was going to go into work today for first time in almost 4 months, then I read the checklist of shite and decided I couldn't be arsed

I'm basically Trump\Bolsonaro levels of not wanting to wear a mask

[Raoul Duke III]

ah, so that's where 'prime directive' comes from

We use that term in work for an absolutely fundamental data principle in investment data. Always wondered why the nerds smirked when the term was used, now I know.

[ComradeCollie]

ah, so that's where 'prime directive' comes from

We use that term in work for an absolutely fundamental data principle in investment data. Always wondered why the nerds smirked when the term was used, now I know.

You need to throw in an occasional 'make it so', they'll piss themselves!

?u=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F_PX7fseE4voc%2FTHKgo90ZE9I%2FAAAAAAAAAEo%2FotHsqf3Qhc4%2Fs1600%2Fmake%2Bit%2Bso_2.jpg&f=1&nofb=1.jpg

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[SatNav]

Jaysus,
was there really an IPB meetup this day 8 years ago?
Feels like a lifetime ago

One would have had a whopping hangover today

"Finally coming around somewhat after a most amazing night with the IrishPokerBoards crew, the night could not have went better. Unbelievable mad bunch! Think I might organise a winter one too Would never have thought Karaoke and poker would go so well together "

[Lao Lao]

On a somewhat tangential note to the mortgage chat. Is anyone thinking of making major lifestyle/living changes on the back of the WFH revolution that looks like it’s coming or just general lessons arising from the pandemic.

Personally we chose to live out in the extreme west of Kildare for the lifestyle 3 years ago (as much if not more than for the value). That decision has been brilliant for us as a family, but it’s looking even better now that it looks like I’ll be WFH ~3 days a week from whenever we start back in the office. My wife is looking like 1 day a week in the office as well.

My job has been very clear, we will be bringing all people back into the office once it is safe to do so. WFH isn't going to be an option long term.

I can see their point, a lot of we do is somewhat hands on and while we have managed with only 30% of staff in the office for the last 17 weeks, it has meant that certain things take longer and are harder to do. Had we had all staff in here over that time period, things would have been a lot simpler.

That said, I would like the option to be able to WFH as and when I wanted to, even if it was only on ad-hoc days as I know I get a lot more done when I can lock myself away and not have people at my desk every 5 minutes or getting unwittingly roped to office cooler type chats. I'm hoping the initial hard line stance on no WFH is just to make sure there are no people taking the piss wanting not to come back into the office as they are somewhat dossing at home and once back in the swing of it, I'll have somewhat carte blanche on where I am/what I do.

As for lifestyle changes, there are a few but nothing overly major - I couldn't move to the sticks, too much of a city boy. Don't get me wrong, I love heading out West for long weekends/a week a few times a year but I couldn't live there, I need the buzz of the city.

There's a few things around food that I want to look at but they are mainly just an extension/improvement of what I already do.

Exercise is another thing I want to look at as I still don't get enough and I really need to address it.

And probably lastly, is switching off/slowing down, which I have somewhat improved at during the lockdown. One simple (and possibly mad) thing that has changed is the weekend papers. I'd usually buy them and then weirdly feel under pressure to read them all by Sunday night. Over the last few months, I've often still being read them the following Friday or Saturday and I've actually quite liked it!

[6starpool]

My job has been very clear, we will be bringing all people back into the office once it is safe to do so. WFH isn't going to be an option long term.

I can see their point, a lot of we do is somewhat hands on and while we have managed with only 30% of staff in the office for the last 17 weeks, it has meant that certain things take longer and are harder to do. Had we had all staff in here over that time period, things would have been a lot simpler.

That said, I would like the option to be able to WFH as and when I wanted to, even if it was only on ad-hoc days as I know I get a lot more done when I can lock myself away and not have people at my desk every 5 minutes or getting unwittingly roped to office cooler type chats. I'm hoping the initial hard line stance on no WFH is just to make sure there are no people taking the piss wanting not to come back into the office as they are somewhat dossing at home and once back in the swing of it, I'll have somewhat carte blanche on where I am/what I do.

As for lifestyle changes, there are a few but nothing overly major - I couldn't move to the sticks, too much of a city boy. Don't get me wrong, I love heading out West for long weekends/a week a few times a year but I couldn't live there, I need the buzz of the city.

There's a few things around food that I want to look at but they are mainly just an extension/improvement of what I already do.

Exercise is another thing I want to look at as I still don't get enough and I really need to address it.

And probably lastly, is switching off/slowing down, which I have somewhat improved at during the lockdown. One simple (and possibly mad) thing that has changed is the weekend papers. I'd usually buy them and then weirdly feel under pressure to read them all by Sunday night. Over the last few months, I've often still being read them the following Friday or Saturday and I've actually quite liked it!

You should get yourself a couple of kids, that'd sort out the last few items for you straightaway.

[Lao Lao]

You should get yourself a couple of kids, that'd sort out the last few items for you straightaway.

I'm not sure I could afford kids and the fine wine habit!

[DeeBrown]

Anyone else who wears glasses finding they fog up when wearing a mask? One end is more steeply curved that the other and I assume that goes under the chin.

Surely I'm not so thick I'm putting it on wrong?
Ignore the question mark on that last sentence,
we already know the answer. ;-)

[pokerhand]

Anyone else who wears glasses finding they fog up when wearing a mask? One end is more steeply curved that the other and I assume that goes under the chin.

Surely I'm not so thick I'm putting it on wrong?
Ignore the question mark on that last sentence,
we already know the answer. ;-)

The curved part goes over the nose, not the chin.

Fogging is an issue, I think you reduce that using breathing techniques.

[ComradeCollie]

Hosepipe ban lifted https://www.rte.ie/news/environment/...epa-emissions/

[ComradeCollie]

Anyone else who wears glasses finding they fog up when wearing a mask?

Yeah the same. I've found breathing out through the mouth only helps somewhat.

[V for Vendetta]

Anyone else who wears glasses finding they fog up when wearing a mask? One end is more steeply curved that the other and I assume that goes under the chin.

Surely I'm not so thick I'm putting it on wrong?
Ignore the question mark on that last sentence,
we already know the answer. ;-)

Shaving foam. Cover your glasses with some and rub off. Fogging greatly diminished. You’re welcome.

[V for Vendetta]

My job has been very clear, we will be bringing all people back into the office once it is safe to do so. WFH isn't going to be an option long term.

I can see their point, a lot of we do is somewhat hands on and while we have managed with only 30% of staff in the office for the last 17 weeks, it has meant that certain things take longer and are harder to do. Had we had all staff in here over that time period, things would have been a lot simpler.

That said, I would like the option to be able to WFH as and when I wanted to, even if it was only on ad-hoc days as I know I get a lot more done when I can lock myself away and not have people at my desk every 5 minutes or getting unwittingly roped to office cooler type chats. I'm hoping the initial hard line stance on no WFH is just to make sure there are no people taking the piss wanting not to come back into the office as they are somewhat dossing at home and once back in the swing of it, I'll have somewhat carte blanche on where I am/what I do.

As for lifestyle changes, there are a few but nothing overly major - I couldn't move to the sticks, too much of a city boy. Don't get me wrong, I love heading out West for long weekends/a week a few times a year but I couldn't live there, I need the buzz of the city.

There's a few things around food that I want to look at but they are mainly just an extension/improvement of what I already do.

Exercise is another thing I want to look at as I still don't get enough and I really need to address it.

And probably lastly, is switching off/slowing down, which I have somewhat improved at during the lockdown. One simple (and possibly mad) thing that has changed is the weekend papers. I'd usually buy them and then weirdly feel under pressure to read them all by Sunday night. Over the last few months, I've often still being read them the following Friday or Saturday and I've actually quite liked it!

I think a WFH flexibility and mindset will be a big part of attracting and hiring experienced staff once the recession passes. The trend is being accelerated due to the pandemic and once people have economic choices it will be quite important to have it embedded in the company culture.

In financial services it’s definitely going to become a must have to be able to successfully WFH policy at lest 2-3 days a week I reckon.

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[Raoul Duke III]

I'm not sure I could afford kids and the fine wine habit!

it's achievable

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[Solksjaer!]

I'm not sure I could afford kids and the fine wine habit!

If you cant afford the best wine get the best cheese . Dont mind the buffs when you find the right taste combo you can totally have kids and completely enjoy easy singles and Ribena.

[Raoul Duke III]

If you cant afford the best wine get the best cheese . Dont mind the buffs when you find the right taste combo you can totally have kids and completely enjoy easy singles and Ribena.

my most recent mind-blowing realisation was that the best wine to match with cheese is generally white wine....

[Lao Lao]

I think a WFH flexibility and mindset will be a big part of attracting and hiring experienced staff once the recession passes. The trend is being accelerated due to the pandemic and once people have economic choices it will be quite important to have it embedded in the company culture.

In financial services it’s definitely going to become a must have to be able to successfully WFH policy at lest 2-3 days a week I reckon.

I agree somewhat with the overall sentiment of your post.

However, our warehouse workers can't work from home. Desk based operations staff that have to access the warehouse for multiple reasons daily can't really work from home - we managed with workarounds as we've had no choice over the last few months but it takes longer, is more complicated and less efficient.

For department supervisors and managers of the operations team's, technically, they could probably WFH a good bit but managing your team who are all in the office from home doesn't make sense and isn't really practical.

Sales and account managers could WFH/have their car as an office but there is huge interaction between them and the department managers and the operations team's so if the later are all in the office, it makes sense to have a base for the former there too.

There is also the issue that not everybody has a home office or even a spare bedroom. An awful lot of the people I've spoken to (internal, customers and suppliers) that have been WFH are at the kitchen/dining room table, which isn't suitable long term.

While WFH can sound amazing, it doesn't always work out as good as it seems.

[V for Vendetta]

I agree somewhat with the overall sentiment of your post.

However, our warehouse workers can't work from home. Desk based operations staff that have to access the warehouse for multiple reasons daily can't really work from home - we managed with workarounds as we've had no choice over the last few months but it takes longer, is more complicated and less efficient.

For department supervisors and managers of the operations team's, technically, they could probably WFH a good bit but managing your team who are all in the office from home doesn't make sense and isn't really practical.

Sales and account managers could WFH/have their car as an office but there is huge interaction between them and the department managers and the operations team's so if the later are all in the office, it makes sense to have a base for the former there too.

There is also the issue that not everybody has a home office or even a spare bedroom. An awful lot of the people I've spoken to (internal, customers and suppliers) that have been WFH are at the kitchen/dining room table, which isn't suitable long term.

While WFH can sound amazing, it doesn't always work out as good as it seems.

All good points for your job/industry. It’s never going to be for everybody but even 30% of people working from home would be game changing.


The issue of not having space and a WFH setup and space can certainly be overcome with planning and will be a factor in people’s accommodation choices in the future. That plus broadband.

[Guest]

I'm not sure I could afford kids and the fine wine habit!

Got an awfully full basket on Millesima. Those en-primeur prices are tempting. Haven't found the will (stupidity) to pull the trigger.

[Lazare]

Got an awfully full basket on Millesima. Those en-primeur prices are tempting. Haven't found the will (stupidity) to pull the trigger.

A wine thread sounds to me like a good idea. What do you guys think?

I'd like to get more and more into it over the next while, be nice to have a handy resource to easily read back over.

[Dice75]

The four month wait is almost over and in accordance with the most recent timetable announced by Government the Club will reopen on Monday 20th July. Our opening hours will be 6pm to 6am seven days a week. Our dedicated card room will also be open where members can enjoy cash poker on our new bespoke large poker tables.

Members will see some changes which have been made to comply with the advice and guidelines issued by Government to reduce the risk of spreading covid-19. For example it may take a little longer to register and gain admission and the number of players at each table will be limited. These measures are for your safety and for the safety of other members and our team and we would ask for your cooperation and patience.

We are ready to go and look forward to welcoming plenty of old faces as well as many new ones.

Please contact us at info@thesportingemporium.com if you have any queries and we will get back to you as soon as we can.

See you soon!

The Sporting Emporium Team

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[Lao Lao]

Got an awfully full basket on Millesima. Those en-primeur prices are tempting. Haven't found the will (stupidity) to pull the trigger.

Future you will be very thankful of present you if you pull the trigger!

I had to stop looking at the daily e-mails from them after buying 5 dozen bottles, it was just too tempting to keep going back in plus there is only so much wine I can sneak into the house and pretend to Mrs Lao that it was always there...

[Dice75]

Came across that. They seem to be reopening thr poker room? I guess with the Fitz and Jackpot gone.

[Lao Lao]

A wine thread sounds to me like a good idea. What do you guys think?

I'd like to get more and more into it over the next while, be nice to have a handy resource to easily read back over.

There was a fine wine, beer and spirit thread from about 4 years ago that could be revived?

Presume it's in the community section.

[Opr]

At around 20%. Who wants to be the one to miss out on a share of the biggest poker tournament in online history. Pledge some of those lockdown savings here.