Only 33 States and the District of Columbia have faithless elector laws. And of those not all the States have laws that compel a vote along State outcome lines.
So there's still plenty of scope for shenanigans even after certification.
Hillary Clinton being an Elector for New York is a fun tidbit.
The market is currently pricing his chance of pulling it off at c. 10% realistically the real possibility must be a tiny fraction of that
I'm really confused by this, it just looks so clearly an opportunity to buy money that I must be missing something huge
Only 33 States and the District of Columbia have faithless elector laws. And of those not all the States have laws that compel a vote along State outcome lines.
So there's still plenty of scope for shenanigans even after certification.
Hillary Clinton being an Elector for New York is a fun tidbit.
Ha no way. A lot of Reps are waiting on certification, then once that is sealed there will be widespread congrats to Biden. Trump is surrounding himself with the type that cant be trusted . It's all about self interest . For now they are just scared of him.
The market is currently pricing his chance of pulling it off at c. 10% realistically the real possibility must be a tiny fraction of that
I'm really confused by this, it just looks so clearly an opportunity to buy money that I must be missing something huge
In 2016 there was a popular vote loser who won the Electoral College but absolutely no suggestion at that time that the election was in any way unfair or invalid. Even so, 6 out of the 538 Electors voted faithlessly. Trump probably needs somewhere around 30 Electors to jump ship for him to win.
There's also a chance that some of the Electors jump from Biden for Bernie Sanders or Hillary or The Bald Eagles of America (think that one or something like it actually got a vote from Washington State in 2016) and leave neither Trump nor Biden with 270. In which case the election goes to a Congressional vote.
I have no idea how you price an event that has never happened and, for it to happen, would require a large number of independent events to all line up perfectly for Trump. I'm not sure you can price it as high as 10% but that's a gut instinct rather than based on any risk-analysis. But it's definitely a non-zero chance that the Electoral College changes the result.
You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011
In 2016 there was a popular vote loser who won the Electoral College but absolutely no suggestion at that time that the election was in any way unfair or invalid. Even so, 6 out of the 538 Electors voted faithlessly. Trump probably needs somewhere around 30 Electors to jump ship for him to win.
There's also a chance that some of the Electors jump from Biden for Bernie Sanders or Hillary or The Bald Eagles of America (think that one or something like it actually got a vote from Washington State in 2016) and leave neither Trump nor Biden with 270. In which case the election goes to a Congressional vote.
I have no idea how you price an event that has never happened and, for it to happen, would require a large number of independent events to all line up perfectly for Trump. I'm not sure you can price it as high as 10% but that's a gut instinct rather than based on any risk-analysis. But it's definitely a non-zero chance that the Electoral College changes the result.
I see it as a tiny possibility - there's lots of things that are technically possible but practically impossible.
It's not even worth thinking about tbh.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
Phase 2 of money making plan implemented - dump Biden winnings into AIB stock. Pity the fucking 25% leap in the previous two days before I could buy, but there we go.
I'd wait for Brexit news myself...
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
My wife and I welcomed a little girl to our family on Monday They are coming home today, quite excited about it. Not sure at all how our 2 year old boy is going to take it but will be interesting for sure. Let the sleepless nights recommence!
I've a pair of Sony Wireless Noise Cancelling Headphones WF-1000XM3 for sale on adverts if anybody is on the lookout for a new pair of earphones, drop me a line if your interested,
Apparently Season 5 is coming in the Spring and does the lead-up to the Iraq War
Just seeing have you vetted these for my listening pleasure.
Note sure if Biggie & Tupac is up your alley but if you liked the previous seasons you'll probably like the story telling. I've still yet to start season 4 but am looking forward to it.
My wife and I welcomed a little girl to our family on Monday They are coming home today, quite excited about it. Not sure at all how our 2 year old boy is going to take it but will be interesting for sure. Let the sleepless nights recommence!
Many congratulations on the new arrival to the family. Best wishes for y'all.
Hitch, was it you who backed Georgia to be the tightest margin in the Prez race? AZ has actually gotten tighter (12k vs 14k) and GA lead keeps expanding as they go through the provisionals...
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
Uploaded so can be played on mobile devices. Taken from the Ian Dempsey Breakfast Show on Today FM Ireland with Mario Rosenstock. Copyright Disclaimer Under ...
That movie is interesting, the lad behind it has a couple of solid credits including Doubt which was very good and Moonlighting which won oscars.
Maybe he's trying to have it every way being pitched as a light piece of paddywhackery at the inhabitants of Trump's dumbfuckistan and at the same time some sort of meta comedy to everybody else.
I don't think there will be nearly enough laughs to carry me through it.
I use NordVPN and I've been meaning to get a password manager for the last while and see they've now got a password manager also, thinking about firing up that or possibly LastPass.
Maybe I'm a bit simple or missing something here but do people pay money just so you dont have to type in your passwords to websites or whatever?
Almost begs for some tech guy on here to hack all your accounts to show you the benefits of not using the same passwords for your online accounts. I'm really bad, I used to use the same one all the time, and still have it as a password in some places despite Google explicitly telling me it's been compromised.
I use an anagram of my name followed by my ATM pin number.
Had to change the anagram recently, but use it on everything.
It doesn't really matter how strong the password is that you use if you reuse that password. It is pretty likely that a site you use has been compromised at some stage or will be in the future exposing the password for everything.
I tried to write a more honest VPN commercial. The sponsor wasn't happy about it. • Get ██ days of ███ VPN free at ██████.com/honestThe ASA ruling I referenced:...
Tbh I doubt many have high volume lazer printers in their houses...was thinking of getting one recently myself (but less volume) and the cheap ones look like shit... wouldn't print enough to look at higher end
I've a friend works for one of the big players, how many sheets will you print in a month / year , He'll work out your best option in the morning based on that number.
Lee Cain (Downing St Director of Comms & Dom Cummings ally) resigns - lots of rumours that Cummings may be about to follow him.
And bizarrely given the timing, chief Brexit negotiator David Frost may be resigning as well.
Lee Cain (Downing St Director of Comms & Dom Cummings ally) resigns - lots of rumours that Cummings may be about to follow him.
And bizarrely given the timing, chief Brexit negotiator David Frost may be resigning as well.
Bors' lickspittle been fed a bit of spin to trot out.
Lee Cain (Downing St Director of Comms & Dom Cummings ally) resigns - lots of rumours that Cummings may be about to follow him.
And bizarrely given the timing, chief Brexit negotiator David Frost may be resigning as well.
Kuenssberg sounded pissed at being stuck in Dublin to interview Mehole during this.
Lee Cain (Downing St Director of Comms & Dom Cummings ally) resigns - lots of rumours that Cummings may be about to follow him.
And bizarrely given the timing, chief Brexit negotiator David Frost may be resigning as well.
I saw there was some doings a-transpiring last night but couldn't figure out what precipitated it. Do we know or is it just an undisclosed bust up?
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