Originally posted by Kayroo
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Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Wordle Gummidge
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Well seen as this is the bad beat section. I was about to have a bet on McEntyre to be 1st round leader in the golf at 30s BUT due to the Election I fell soundly asleep very late and by the time I got up, it have t’eed off. Of course he got there.
I was funking for him to double bogey the last hole but now. POxy feeling really yesterday.
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
Skybet are some chancers, I've never paid much attention to cash out options before. I 1k bet on Biden at 4/9. He is now 1/20 there, and the cash-out option is for 1267
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
Skybet are some chancers, I've never paid much attention to cash out options before. I 1k bet on Biden at 4/9. He is now 1/20 there, and the cash-out option is for 1267
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Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
They really target the Degen who cant wait. In my noticing cashouts over the years i think 365 are the fairest iirc"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Keane View Post
I might just cash out if it gets down to 1.04 or so. Don't want to have a few k sitting on the exchange sweating your man's flailing litigations
I "beat" cashout offer once; if you remember the time Charles Byrnes had 3 winners in Limerick in 2016. I was working overnight and saw quite a few bets for his horses. It would need to be a bit for me to place a bet on a horse race.
I had a 25e treble, first two win and last horse goes into even money. The bookie offers ever so slightly better value than a marginless cashout so if I cashout and replace the bet, I'd make more money(obv wasnt going to do that though).
I click cashout, get a delay and it halves. I chance contacting customer support and they said the delay was a fault on their side so they honoured the cashout.
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Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
I think that's a good option provided cashout is somewhat decent. As HJ said, depending on provider and market, the cashout margin may be colossal.
I "beat" cashout offer once; if you remember the time Charles Byrnes had 3 winners in Limerick in 2016. I was working overnight and saw quite a few bets for his horses. It would need to be a bit for me to place a bet on a horse race.
I had a 25e treble, first two win and last horse goes into even money. The bookie offers ever so slightly better value than a marginless cashout so if I cashout and replace the bet, I'd make more money(obv wasnt going to do that though).
I click cashout, get a delay and it halves. I chance contacting customer support and they said the delay was a fault on their side so they honoured the cashout.
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Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
I think they'll be very hesitant to call anything given the size of the market.
If PP didn't need to consider the exc, I could see them declaring but I think they'll wait until AZ & NV are officially locked in.
Pennsylvania could be drawn out for a quite a while so even if that flips by a few thousand votes today, they might not be willing to settle."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Guest
Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
I expect networks will call Pennsylvania this afternoon once Biden gets ahead by a few thousand votes. I am fully expecting a Biden acceptance speech this evening.
Different broadcasters have called different states at different times and BF's rules don't cover what the exact requirement is for a call.
I just think they'll be cautious, it'll need to be near unanimous to settle.Last edited by Guest; 06-11-20, 11:36.
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The only explanation I have for Trumps behaviour last night (trying to rationalise it ) was he must SURELY know that after this election he is in major legal trouble. So whilst he knows he has LOST , he is merely buying time to assess his options.
I think he is in serious trouble when the ‘truth of his dealings’ info flows and gathers momentum over the coming 12 months. His taxes will be the least of his worries. I’m still stunned the way he was allowed to influence the USPS. It’s all pretty much blatant and barefaced and what he was doing was obvious. If there are backing docs & details then they have to make an example of him . Otherwise the Office of the POTUS is stained forever. IT needs to be protected from corruption
Trump can’t be simply excused. The rats that have deserted him now for the own ends will do a Brutus Stab on him. Even the compassionate Hotspur will be rubbing his hands at this grandfathers comeuppance.
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Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
I don't doubt that at all but a network calling it and BF settling a near 600m market is different.
Different broadcasters have called different states at different times and BF's rules don't cover what the exact requirement is for a call.
I just think they'll be cautious, it'll need to be near unanimous to settle.
Win election or Next president?
Very different in this case.
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Originally posted by Mellor View Post
What is the actual terms of the bet?
Win election or Next president?
Very different in this case.
It's Next President but because it's based on 270 Electoral College votes, I didn't think Kamala could win.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution
If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.Last edited by Guest; 06-11-20, 11:55.
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Originally posted by Solksjaer! View PostThe only explanation I have for Trumps behaviour last night (trying to rationalise it ) was he must SURELY know that after this election he is in major legal trouble. So whilst he knows he has LOST , he is merely buying time to assess his options.
I think he is in serious trouble when the ‘truth of his dealings’ info flows and gathers momentum over the coming 12 months. His taxes will be the least of his worries. I’m still stunned the way he was allowed to influence the USPS. It’s all pretty much blatant and barefaced and what he was doing was obvious. If there are backing docs & details then they have to make an example of him . Otherwise the Office of the POTUS is stained forever. IT needs to be protected from corruption
Trump can’t be simply excused. The rats that have deserted him now for the own ends will do a Brutus Stab on him. Even the compassionate Hotspur will be rubbing his hands at this grandfathers comeuppance.You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011
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Guest
Apparently the New York AG after him biggly
Stories that she wants to declare corporate death on his whole shebang
The rapist stuff that has come back up
The Pedo and Epstein stuff that won't go away, the families of children he paid money to.
Russia
All the illegal stuff he did in lead up to election that would normally be brushed under the carpet but when the snowball starts rolling...?
Ya...fair chance he is shitting himself about what happens if he loses.
Some lad to be hero worshipping, even in jest
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostI think Wolf Blitzer has been the weakest of the CNN anchors, he's losing his thread quite a bit now.
Doug Stanhope on how hate can help.Register for tour news here: http://eepurl.com/FMHrHFor upcoming gigs and other info visit http://www.dougstanhope.com
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
nah its 'sufficient network calls'. Theres only two network calls - Fox+AP, all the others. So when they both call it, its done. Almost certainly today.
Imagine the vitriol BF's customer support will have to deal with when they eventually settle it though
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Originally posted by Kayroo View Post
That won't happen for 2 weeks.
It could of been January depending on how loosely it was phrased
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
nah its 'sufficient network calls'. Theres only two network calls - Fox+AP, all the others. So when they both call it, its done. Almost certainly today.
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Watching CNN and Fox News for this. I know it has been that way for years, but it's 5% news and 95% opinion. These opinions are adopted by so many without any thought or critical analysis. I guess this may be one of the reasons why the networks are so biased.
Interesting arguments being put forward about outlandish polling leading to turnout suppression. I think there was a conclusion in 2016 that it led to democrats not voting because they believed it was in the bag for Hillary.Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Says it here on betfair:
Black-and-white, its about most projected votes, not most actual votes. The networks are the only ones that 'project' votes, no one else. The other process by the states which takes a few weeks involves certifying votes, not projecting them.
The states certify the election results. And officially announce the winner. At that point electoral college votes are still projected votes. The don't become actual votes until december when the electors cast them.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostMainlining coffee here. Hoping for a call before kids come home from school.
I haven't stayed up past 10.30pm in months until this week, routine out the window.
That said, I refuse to believe I'm getting old.
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Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
I'm shocked how preoccupied I have become over the last week.
I haven't stayed up past 10.30pm in months until this week, routine out the window.
That said, I refuse to believe I'm getting old.
The joy of getting older is that you know how to do stupid shit optimally."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
I highly doubt they'll wait two weeks before paying out? Can see on the betfair explanatory page here that they are thinking about paying out based on projected votes. As in, their baseline assumption, for a landslide, was that they would settle on Tuesday. Which could never be the case if they were waiting on votes to be certified.
https://betting.betfair.com/politics...021120-51.html
A landslide is a easy early payout as there is no way back for Trump. But I can't see them paying out when there is a slim chance of shenanigans. They specifically outline that in your link.
3) Contested Result
A contested result includes a legal battle regarding re-count, the Supreme Court deciding the winner and any scenario other than a clean Electoral College vote majority.
This could happen if we see a margin of less than 1% in a key state like Florida, Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nothing would be conceded in this scenario and the projections couldn't be made given the margins involved.
There is potential after a re-count that a result would be determined, but legal challenges would be likely should the state Electoral College total be the balance of power in terms of winning the presidency or not.
There is no way of giving a clear view of settlement time in advance in this case, but these market rules will apply:
If all pending states are called for Biden. Then, 321 is so far ahead that recounts and legal battles are off the table. But they might not settle all markets
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostI've only been awake two hours or so, but feels like its important to accept the reality that there will be no work done today and not to spend the day pretending to work.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostPotential 306-232 now. Which is what I've been saying is about where I expected.
But not i'm kinda looking at NC and wondering if it's possible."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
I feel you are doing a Trump here. Denying something that is going to be easily disproved when everyone is paid out today or at the latest over the weekend.
You said it was black and white, 100% on the networks only. We've already established that is incorrect based on the betfair page you linked.
They clearly said that they will hold off for legal challenges , recounts and the like. The fact they even published that page to begin with is precisely for a delayed payout.
But Trump at this point, Trump needs to attack the result of 3 results. Which I think it too much to be credible.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
I think NC would be a big stretch if the number of remaining votes is accurate.
5.4m currently. 94% reported. 75k behind.
6% remaining would be 325k. He'd need 200k of that, or just over 61%
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