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    GP managed to scare the (negative, as I knew they would be) results from the HSE. I doubt we'll ever officially get the results the way we were meant to though. Ah well. At least the demon can go to school tomorrow.

    Comment


      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

      I'm going to put up a long-ish post here explaining my rationale for why I think Biden is such a great price at the current odds. This is more for my own benefit but please feel free to rip me a new one where my thinking is fuzzy or just plain wrong. Or feel free to suggest a wager.

      My position is based on two primary factors - data and politics.

      Data:
      1. There is a huge gap between what the polls say and what the betting market says. The polls have consistently given Biden a 7-8 point+ national lead and (crucially) a consistent lead in most of the battleground states. Trump has not gotten a bounce anywhere in the electoral cycle - these numbers are locked in and it is very hard to see Trump turning them around in the volume that he requires.
      2. Polling methodology...."but the polls were wrong in 2016." Yes they were - but the pollsters have adjusted their methodology since 2016 and are, if anything, likely to be overweighting the Trump vote. The 2018 mid-terms used new methodology and were consistently correct. I believe we'll see the same in the Presidential election.
      3. Popularity. Trump has a very high net unfavourable rating. Consistently more than 10%. You cannot win a Presidential election with those numbers.
      4. The most reputable predictive sites are 538 and The Economist\YouGov. 538 has consistently being putting Biden at ~75%. The Economist\YouGov have Biden at over 80% for months now.
      Simply put, if we believe the data - which is telling a very consistent story (few undecided voters, Trump unpopular President, Biden well ahead) - Biden should be 1.25 (1\4) and Trump about 4.00 (3/1). This betting market is irrational with Biden available at ~1.85 and Trump only 2.25.

      Now onto:

      Politics:
      1. As I've said repeatedly, there is a massive difference between 2016 and 2020; 2016 was a referendum on Clinton. 2020 is a referendum on Trump. Trump cannot win a referendum on himself - he is a uniquely divisive figure who is even now doubling down on that divisiveness at a point when he should be trying to pivot to the centre and pull in some of the (few) undecided voters.
      2. Trump is trapped in a negative news cycle - covid, the economy, bad-mouthing the military, Woodward tapes etc. He is stuck playing defence and is doing it so ineptly that it almost looks like he is trying to sabotage his own campaign.
      3. Trump is no longer an unknown, exciting quantity - the American electorate know him well now and they don't like what they see. See point 3 in the Data section.
      4. Biden is not Hilary Clinton. She was just a terrible candidate who managed to demotivate her own supporters to such an extent that she depressed her own turnout. She also had a whiff of scandal about her that the Trump campaign exploited to the max. Biden by contrast has no real skeletons for Trump to seize on.
      5. There is no signficant third party candidate this time. Last time, third party candidates took ~5% of the vote and this (the Green candidate especially) was key to Trump narrowly winning states like PA, MI and WI.
      6. The Dems have a significant fundraising advantage.
      7. There will be significantly higher youth and minority voting this time, this heavily favours Biden.

      Overall, I think this is a crazy market and have taken a big position at average odds of ~1.87. I'll continue to add to it while the betting markets remain stable.

      I'm also looking at a few bets on the Biden margin of victory, which I expect to be large and potentially >150 EC votes as the Trump negative momentum grows.
      Checking in at E -6weeks.

      Polls holding steady although the Ginsburg\SC nomination impact hasn't yet filtered through - nobody seems too sure what the impact is there.
      Biden ahead in PA, MI, NV, MN, AZ, WI
      Trump has narrow leads in GA, TX
      FL and NC are tossups

      Fivethirtyeight have Biden at 77% (1.3)
      The Economist\YouGov have Biden at 86% (1.16)

      You can back him at 5/6 or 1.83. Go figure.

      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

      Comment


        Loathe breakfast rolls with a terrible loathing, rashers always either undercooked or have transparent fat. You need a nice grilled crispy rasher.
        Triple decker toasted bread with crispy grilled rashers, 1 runny egg, few thin slices of tomato grilled or fried just a bit, little bit of black pudding but not enough to overpower and a few thin slices of grilled/fried mushroom. NO sausages.
        Remember to keep sandwich on a horizontal plane when scoffing.
        Big mug of tea.

        Luxury.

        Follow with plain slice of white rolled around grilled sausage with ketchup.

        More tea.

        Comment


          Just throwing this out there in case anyone knows someone looking for a start...

          We’re mad busy and have just won another very good client. I’m therefore looking to hire a grad to become an investment analyst and in time an investment consultant on my small team.

          Starting ASAP and on boarding physically in Dublin and then working remotely after the first few months. Must be willing to work with a team of cranky bollixes juggling various demanding projects and timelines and be hungry to learn. Support for CFA exams provided.

          I’d love to add a bit of diversity to my team so a coloured, trans candidate would be great but most important that they are hungry as fuck to learn, are able to speak and present themselves well, and are not idiots.

          PM me if you know of anybody.
          ‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan

          Comment



            Up and out early this morning for a swim followed by some delish toasties in Mugs in Dalkey. The water was lovely

            SPOILER


            Then home for a shower and a change before hitting up Howth for a hike round the head followed by a 99 and a stroll along the pier.

            SPOILER


            There are definetely worse ways to spend a Monday!

            Comment


              Lol Bitter much? Is he the Kevin keegan of the rugby world?

              SPOTLIGHT: Former Ireland and Leinster flyhalf Tony Ward has said he ‘hates everything Saracens stand for’ whilst admitting begrudging respect for their intensity.

              Comment


                Mountains and masks: Tour de France 2020 – in pictures

                The Guardian picture essay

                Comment


                  Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
                  Lol Bitter much? Is he the Kevin keegan of the rugby world?

                  https://rugby365.com/tournaments/eur...cens-stand-for
                  He's not wrong
                  Turning millions into thousands

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post

                    He's not wrong
                    Wouldn't be a big fan of Racing (another club trying to buy success) but I hope they bate Saracens up and down the Champs Elysee at the weekend.

                    And that they lose to Exeter in the final.
                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                    Comment


                      Watching ( well hearing about) Irish rugby flat track bullies get put down with extreme prejudice always brings a smile to my face
                      lovely section on second captains the other day on how utterly fucked professional rugby is due to pandemic, IRFU better not come with cap in hand looking for any off my hard earned , I’ll run for office on a single issue ticket to ensure they don’t get a cent

                      Comment


                        Second captains missing out on cash by not offering a more expensive version of pods with all rugby stuff cut out, I’d pay, I resent the 20 seconds or so it takes to skip the rigger stuff every tome

                        like you will often be able to detect some humanity in the inter county GAA drones but the you won’t get it from the drones spouting rugger corporate newspeak

                        Comment


                          ...
                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                          Comment


                            Can confirm, all three of us have the same thing, runny noses, some sneezing and a very light cough. Going on for weeks now since the little lad went back to creche. During the full lockdown his nose, which had been constantly runny since starting creche 12 months previously, fully dried up. Those little people just infect the hell out of each other!


                            Comment


                              Originally posted by PSV58 View Post
                              Watching ( well hearing about) Irish rugby flat track bullies get put down with extreme prejudice always brings a smile to my face
                              lovely section on second captains the other day on how utterly fucked professional rugby is due to pandemic, IRFU better not come with cap in hand looking for any off my hard earned , I’ll run for office on a single issue ticket to ensure they don’t get a cent
                              Reposted for RD3 benefit.
                              No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.

                              Comment


                                The Toulon guy Bouldjellal was the epitome of 'local guy putting his self-made money into his local club to build it up'. In very few other sports would he be perceived so poorly.

                                Seemed a passionate character as well, loved his rant against a referee.
                                "I had my first referee sodomy against Clermont in the semi-finals in 2010.
                                I've just had my second tonight. It's supposed to hurt the first time but it hurts again this time. The images ought to be on YouPorn instead of YouTube".

                                Comment


                                  ...
                                  Attached Files
                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                    Checking in at E -6weeks.

                                    Polls holding steady although the Ginsburg\SC nomination impact hasn't yet filtered through - nobody seems too sure what the impact is there.
                                    Biden ahead in PA, MI, NV, MN, AZ, WI
                                    Trump has narrow leads in GA, TX
                                    FL and NC are tossups

                                    Fivethirtyeight have Biden at 77% (1.3)
                                    The Economist\YouGov have Biden at 86% (1.16)

                                    You can back him at 5/6 or 1.83. Go figure.
                                    Is there a scenario where Trump doesn’t accept the result or somehow gets in the way of it and ‘wins’ as a result? Is that feasible or who would overrule him in that case? Is that any cause for concern for your bet or is it a reason the markets are out of sync with the data?

                                    Comment


                                      Like I said . The likes of PSV a turkey voting for Christmas

                                      The culchies needs Dublin

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                        First day in the office today and my task of the day (thank you taxpayers) was to get all the furniture except the chair and desk removed. I have no idea why people keep storage furniture in their offices - its like telling future you to store crap that you will never look at. I stumbled a bit though as I had to describe this in the request form. Its one of those standard things with the shelves inside. Is it a cupboard? A cupboard struck me as a name for a more permanent thing, primarily for storing food.
                                        BKuDAY2l.jpg
                                        I always call them Stationary Cabinets myself.
                                        No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by thechamp87 View Post

                                          Is there a scenario where Trump doesn’t accept the result or somehow gets in the way of it and ‘wins’ as a result? Is that feasible or who would overrule him in that case? Is that any cause for concern for your bet or is it a reason the markets are out of sync with the data?
                                          The only realistic scenario where that causes a concern is where it comes down to a handful of votes in one state. Like Florida 2000. In any case, the bets are settled on projected EC results (i.e. the statewide counts) so Trump can whinge all he wants from that perspective.

                                          I don't know why the markets and the polling are so diverged. I will offer an amateur opinion here; people love to gamble on populist wins especially post Trump I and Brexit, most gamblers are men (most Trump supporters are men), most gamblers are poorly educated (most Trump supporters are poorly educated), Trump supporters refuse to accept newsflow from outside the bubble.
                                          Oy maybe the market is right, who knows...we'll find out on Nov 4th. I'm confident in my opinion and analysis.
                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by thechamp87 View Post

                                            Is there a scenario where Trump doesn’t accept the result or somehow gets in the way of it and ‘wins’ as a result? Is that feasible or who would overrule him in that case? Is that any cause for concern for your bet or is it a reason the markets are out of sync with the data?
                                            I believe the polls were indicating a similar edge for Biden prior to the idea of Trump refusing to accept the result being a possibility.

                                            Perhaps there is some built in hesitation to accept the poll numbers in light of the result last time out and the external forces that have shown influence in the past.

                                            I recall the only major publication in the US that predicted Trump last time out was the LA times.

                                            Combine that with the predictions around Brexit too, I can understand the hesitation in trusting polling.

                                            FWIW, I'd tend to agree with RD3 that Biden simply must be value based on the numbers.

                                            My thought process months ago was pick the candidate who polled the best against Trump in the H2H which always was Biden. He isn't the candidate I'd have chosen but he was always the one with the highest probability of beating Trump.

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post

                                              He's not wrong
                                              He's not wrong but he sounds like a whiney bitch. Leinster have it pretty good tbf. no salary cap, loads of players under IRFU contracts, and huge strength in depth with the first team only required for a handful of games during the season, and winning at a canter with the 2nd string players. no wonder you've won so many European Cups. There will always be clubs trying to buy their way to Cups, but hearing former Leinster players crying when they lose to a team with a better game plan is pretty petty imo.

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by shrapnel View Post

                                                He's not wrong but he sounds like a whiney bitch. Leinster have it pretty good tbf. no salary cap, loads of players under IRFU contracts, and huge strength in depth with the first team only required for a handful of games during the season, and winning at a canter with the 2nd string players. no wonder you've won so many European Cups. There will always be clubs trying to buy their way to Cups, but hearing former Leinster players crying when they lose to a team with a better game plan is pretty petty imo.
                                                Tony Ward was a Munster player.

                                                Leinster develop pretty much all their own players, they develop so many that the other provinces benefit from this too. They are an absolute model of sustainable rugby development.

                                                Saracens are a bunch of cheating pricks.

                                                Hope that clears that up.
                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
                                                  Like I said . The likes of PSV a turkey voting for Christmas

                                                  The culchies needs Dublin

                                                  https://www.rte.ie/news/munster/2020...arney-tourism/
                                                  they’ll make up the business as people like me who would normally be put off Killarney due to uncouth behaviour from dubscum will now consider it as an option

                                                  thst article is active a very clever bit of free advertising by Killarney tourism, cute out

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                    Tony Ward was a Munster player.

                                                    Leinster develop pretty much all their own players, they develop so many that the other provinces benefit from this too. They are an absolute model of sustainable rugby development.

                                                    Saracens are a bunch of cheating pricks.

                                                    Hope that clears that up.
                                                    first line of the article: Former Ireland and Leinster flyhalf Tony Ward

                                                    I'm not knocking the system, it's a good one, but it's also a very privileged one thanks to the IRFU.

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by shrapnel View Post

                                                      first line of the article: Former Ireland and Leinster flyhalf Tony Ward

                                                      I'm not knocking the system, it's a good one, but it's also a very privileged one thanks to the IRFU.
                                                      hmmm, maybe he played for Leinster too

                                                      He was most famous for this though:
                                                      318221_2_articleinline_ie-473428_8d67fb8d2b254173a970bbe371d87fba.jpg
                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                        The only realistic scenario where that causes a concern is where it comes down to a handful of votes in one state. Like Florida 2000. In any case, the bets are settled on projected EC results (i.e. the statewide counts) so Trump can whinge all he wants from that perspective.

                                                        I don't know why the markets and the polling are so diverged. I will offer an amateur opinion here; people love to gamble on populist wins especially post Trump I and Brexit, most gamblers are men (most Trump supporters are men), most gamblers are poorly educated (most Trump supporters are poorly educated), Trump supporters refuse to accept newsflow from outside the bubble.
                                                        Oy maybe the market is right, who knows...we'll find out on Nov 4th. I'm confident in my opinion and analysis.
                                                        The last two elections were mispriced wouldn't be a shocker if this one was too.

                                                        Trump supporters refuse to accept newsflow from outside the bubble.
                                                        For an Irish person to say that about a US election is kinda Our understanding and view of US politics is so massively skewed. Irish people would probably vote 95%+ blue, and all our media and day to day intake is aligned with that.
                                                        Last edited by Denny Crane; 22-09-20, 08:43.

                                                        Comment


                                                          Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                          I believe the polls were indicating a similar edge for Biden prior to the idea of Trump refusing to accept the result being a possibility.

                                                          Perhaps there is some built in hesitation to accept the poll numbers in light of the result last time out and the external forces that have shown influence in the past.

                                                          I recall the only major publication in the US that predicted Trump last time out was the LA times.

                                                          Combine that with the predictions around Brexit too, I can understand the hesitation in trusting polling.

                                                          FWIW, I'd tend to agree with RD3 that Biden simply must be value based on the numbers.

                                                          My thought process months ago was pick the candidate who polled the best against Trump in the H2H which always was Biden. He isn't the candidate I'd have chosen but he was always the one with the highest probability of beating Trump.
                                                          Welcome back

                                                          Comment


                                                            Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                            For an Irish person to say that about a US election is kinda Our understanding and view of US politics is so massively skewed. Irish people would probably vote 95%+ blue, and all our media and day to day intake is aligned with that.
                                                            touchy, touchy

                                                            I was attempting to explain why the polling predictive odds differ so widely from the betting odds. That was one of the factors I thought might be in play i.e. that Trump supporters are willing to back him at evens when the predictive models indicate he's a 3/1+ shot
                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                            Comment


                                                              Yeah it's likely a McGregor vs Mayweather betting situation in terms of volume.

                                                              Comment


                                                                Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                                                                Welcome back

                                                                For an Irish person to say that about a US election is kinda Our understanding and view of US politics is so massively skewed. Irish people would probably vote 95%+ blue, and all our media and day to day intake is aligned with that.
                                                                Thanks, hope you're well, did you move job after?

                                                                I think that's very true, our perception of the US as a state of constant juxtaposition is very much a media driven image.

                                                                That said, my own personal experience of young Trump voters(sample size of 2, though highly educated) is that they are a little unwilling to consider "outside" sources.

                                                                The two people I'm referring to, one of whom I'm quite friendly with simply swears by WSJ. It was a genuine battle to get them to admit that The Economist was a reliable source.

                                                                Obviously worse sources than WSJ but I was a little surprised tbh especially given they openly admitted to Trump not being their first choice but better than a Democrat.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                  touchy, touchy

                                                                  I was attempting to explain why the polling predictive odds differ so widely from the betting odds. That was one of the factors I thought might be in play i.e. that Trump supporters are willing to back him at evens when the predictive models indicate he's a 3/1+ shot
                                                                  Hard to price in polling error related to vote by mail issues too. Likely voter v Registered voter trends usually drive most of the models but Likely voter v Likely Postal Voter might really miss the mark too.

                                                                  It's kinda hard to judge who an error might benefit too. Democrats are more likely to vote by mail in general but how many votes will be lost by people not using the second envelope etc? Or will it lead to a massive spike in Democrat support in tight races where previously the lack of ability to reach polling places by low-wage workers of ethnic backgrounds means the turnout is higher than expected in Democrat demographic groups?

                                                                  It adds some extra spice here.
                                                                  You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
                                                                  World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                                    I believe the polls were indicating a similar edge for Biden prior to the idea of Trump refusing to accept the result being a possibility.

                                                                    Perhaps there is some built in hesitation to accept the poll numbers in light of the result last time out and the external forces that have shown influence in the past.

                                                                    I recall the only major publication in the US that predicted Trump last time out was the LA times.

                                                                    Combine that with the predictions around Brexit too, I can understand the hesitation in trusting polling.

                                                                    FWIW, I'd tend to agree with RD3 that Biden simply must be value based on the numbers.

                                                                    My thought process months ago was pick the candidate who polled the best against Trump in the H2H which always was Biden. He isn't the candidate I'd have chosen but he was always the one with the highest probability of beating Trump.
                                                                    Great to see you back, I genuinely worried you were browners at one point.
                                                                    I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Here's my state of play as of today. I've included the 538 State probabilities, the RCP polling spreads and the Betfair odds.
                                                                      • My locks haven't changed and nobody is seriously suggesting yet that any of them might be in play for the presidential election. (Although some interesting Senatorial races). Biden has 217 EC votes locked down, Trump has 126.
                                                                      • I've given Biden all the in-play states where his 538 status is >75%.
                                                                      • I've given Trump Texas and Iowa (even though he doesn't meet the 538 75% threshold) because they're, you know, Texas and Iowa.
                                                                      • Biden exceeds the 270 to win target already on this basis AND is in the lead in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina.
                                                                      • Trump needs to win all the above 4 states AND Georgia (89 EC votes up for grabs). AND he needs to flip probably Pennsylvania or two of WI, MN, MI, NV
                                                                      • It's a far bigger ask for Trump. I'd rather be backing Biden's easier path at 5/6 than Trumps' much harder one at 11/10 and I think the betting market is still nuts.
                                                                      EC votes 538 Status RCP Average Betfair Trump Betfair Biden Trump Biden
                                                                      Lock 343 2.26 1.83 126 217
                                                                      Arizona 11 Lean Biden (68) Biden +5 2.54 1.57
                                                                      Florida 29 Lean Biden (60) Biden + 1.6 1.91 2.01
                                                                      Georgia 16 Lean Trump (63) Trump +1.3 1.46 2.5
                                                                      Iowa 6 Lean Trump (66) Trump + 1.7 1.41 3.1 6
                                                                      Michigan 16 Lean Biden (88) Biden + 4.8 3.35 1.38 16
                                                                      Minnesota 10 Lean Biden (88) Biden +10.2 3.6 1.31 10
                                                                      Nevada 6 Lean Biden (81) Biden + 6 3.45 1.3 6
                                                                      North Carolina 15 Lean Biden (54) Biden + 0.9 1.78 2.12
                                                                      Ohio 18 Lean Trump (55) Biden +2.4 1.45 2.96
                                                                      Pennsylvania 20 Lean Biden (75) Biden +4 2.48 1.54 20
                                                                      Texas 38 Lean Trump (68) Trump +2.3 1.31 3.9 38
                                                                      Wisconsin 10 Lean Biden (79) Biden +6.7 3 1.47 10
                                                                      195 170 279

                                                                      here are the locks:
                                                                      Locked in Trump Locked in Biden
                                                                      Alabama 9 California 55
                                                                      Alaska 3 Colorado 9
                                                                      Arkansas 6 Conneticut 7
                                                                      Idaho 4 Delaware 3
                                                                      Indiana 11 Hawaii 4
                                                                      Kansas 6 Illinois 20
                                                                      Kentucky 8 Maine 4
                                                                      Louisiana 8 Maryland 10
                                                                      Mississippi 6 Massachusetts 11
                                                                      Missouri 10 New Hampshire 4
                                                                      Montana 3 New Jersey 14
                                                                      Nebraska 5 New Mexico 5
                                                                      North Dakota 3 New York 29
                                                                      Oklahoma 7 Oregon 7
                                                                      South Carolina 9 Rhode Island 4
                                                                      South Dakota 3 Vermont 3
                                                                      Tennessee 11 Virginia 13
                                                                      Utah 6 Washington 12
                                                                      West Virginia 5 Washington DC 3
                                                                      Wyoming 3
                                                                      126 217
                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        And the silly little districts in Nebraska and Maine cancel each other out before you ask
                                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                        Comment




                                                                          this is worrying though
                                                                          People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                                          Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                                          https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post

                                                                            this is worrying though
                                                                            It doesn't look too intimidating, just a bunch of idiots with flags, which youd expect from their type?
                                                                            airport, lol

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              One number that doesn't get talked about enough is the daily covid stats.
                                                                              If the election takes place in the context of a proper second (or third) wave, that's deadly for Trump.

                                                                              52,000 new cases yesterday in the US, the highest number since 14-Aug....watch it closely.
                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by eamonhonda View Post

                                                                                It doesn't look too intimidating, just a bunch of idiots with flags, which youd expect from their type?
                                                                                Its a start of things to come, voter intimidation is a real issue.
                                                                                If left unchecked it WILL have an impact.


                                                                                People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                                                Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                                                https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                  52,000 new cases yesterday in the US, the highest number since 14-Aug....watch it closely.
                                                                                  Do you get your fake numbers from somewhere, or just make them up yourself? I have 36k for yesterday, 52k on Sept 4th, 51.4k on Sept 18th.

                                                                                  Edit: yeah NYT says 55k for yesterday. Seems to be a wild variation depending on where you get them.
                                                                                  Last edited by ComradeCollie; 22-09-20, 11:06.
                                                                                  Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Originally posted by ComradeCollie View Post

                                                                                    Do you get your fake numbers from somewhere, or just make them up yourself? I have 36k for yesterday, 52k on Sept 4th, 51.4k on Sept 18th.

                                                                                    Edit: yeah NYT says 55k for yesterday. Seems to be a wild variation depending on where you get them.
                                                                                    John Hopkins seem to be acknowledged as the best resource so I get my fake news from there, even though the virus obviously doesn't exist and is a plot by Hilary Clinton to destroy America.

                                                                                    52.07k cases yesterday according to them.
                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Trump doesn't need 270 to win, he just needs to prevent Biden getting to 270. Quite how much this quirk this should influence the market is hard to know - probably <1% in reality.
                                                                                      The concept was referenced here yesterday in a tweet by Seth Abhramson (sp).
                                                                                      In effect the idea is he gets say Florida and maybe one other declared 'void' for voting irregularities (and just to be fair and magnanimous he can do the same for a few he has won) , the final result might be 260 Biden, 180 Trump. Trump wins on the floor on that.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Turning millions into thousands

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Yeah from the NYT themselves. You have to click through to a seperate article to see that https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...#anomaly-notes

                                                                                          Sept. 21: Officials in Texas reported thousands of undated, backlogged cases, causing a spike in the state and national data.
                                                                                          Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Originally posted by Lazare View Post

                                                                                            Great to see you back, I genuinely worried you were browners at one point.
                                                                                            No not quite, if anything I'd like to think, I've been going in the other direction, flat out training, fittest I've been in 6+ years. A lockdown glow up is apparently what it's called

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Nice to have a billionaire pay off your debts so you can vote.
                                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                First day in the office today and my task of the day (thank you taxpayers) was to get all the furniture except the chair and desk removed. I have no idea why people keep storage furniture in their offices - its like telling future you to store crap that you will never look at. I stumbled a bit though as I had to describe this in the request form. Its one of those standard things with the shelves inside. Is it a cupboard? A cupboard struck me as a name for a more permanent thing, primarily for storing food.
                                                                                                BKuDAY2l.jpg
                                                                                                It’s a tambour unit.

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                                                                                                  Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                                                                                                  Trump doesn't need 270 to win, he just needs to prevent Biden getting to 270. Quite how much this quirk this should influence the market is hard to know - probably <1% in reality.
                                                                                                  The concept was referenced here yesterday in a tweet by Seth Abhramson (sp).
                                                                                                  In effect the idea is he gets say Florida and maybe one other declared 'void' for voting irregularities (and just to be fair and magnanimous he can do the same for a few he has won) , the final result might be 260 Biden, 180 Trump. Trump wins on the floor on that.
                                                                                                  Seth has been predicting impeachment and jail for trump for coming on 4 years solid now.
                                                                                                  airport, lol

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                                                                                                    Yo RD3 I've been really enjoying your political posts the last while, keep up the good work.
                                                                                                    "you raise, i kill you" El Tren :{)

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                                                                                                      Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                                                                                                      The last two elections were mispriced wouldn't be a shocker if this one was too.



                                                                                                      For an Irish person to say that about a US election is kinda Our understanding and view of US politics is so massively skewed. Irish people would probably vote 95%+ blue, and all our media and day to day intake is aligned with that.
                                                                                                      That’s such a 2014 viewpoint. It’s 2020, A LARGE majority or us have multiple news sources including social media and both blue and red have ready access to both without censorship. Tbh, before Trump I wasn’t too fussed who became POTUS , I was neither blue nor red nor did I care very much. Trump has redefined what a RED is now in my view. The fact that this poisonous human being is being supported by a huge self serving manipulative rabble is enough for me to think Blue and the reason for this isn’t anything offered up by a democrat , it’s the car-crash being played out daily . It’s like reality is now satire. I should enjoy it but it’s too scary what this guy is capable. The fact that he is bragging about his new big boy weapons should really worry us all.

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                                                                                                        ...
                                                                                                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                          ...
                                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                            Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                            I've said it before, but I'll say it again, there's just a bit too much searching for confirmatory reasons why we might be right on Biden, rather than checking if we could be wrong. If its just a static bet and you won't top up again that's fine, but the proper strategy is to search for reasons why you might be wrong and see if those reasons have any merit.
                                                                                                            Bah, I don't want to hear reasons why I might be wrong. What are you, my wife?
                                                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                              ...
                                                                                                              "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                                Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post



                                                                                                                I was thinking of putting some more on next payday next week as due to weird circumstances there's a few different paychecks all arriving at the same time. Its just getting to be quite a lot now hence my moments of self-doubt.
                                                                                                                just think of the winnings

                                                                                                                you'll be winning, bigly
                                                                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post

                                                                                                                  That’s such a 2014 viewpoint. It’s 2020, A LARGE majority or us have multiple news sources including social media and both blue and red have ready access to both without censorship. Tbh, before Trump I wasn’t too fussed who became POTUS , I was neither blue nor red nor did I care very much. Trump has redefined what a RED is now in my view. The fact that this poisonous human being is being supported by a huge self serving manipulative rabble is enough for me to think Blue and the reason for this isn’t anything offered up by a democrat , it’s the car-crash being played out daily . It’s like reality is now satire. I should enjoy it but it’s too scary what this guy is capable. The fact that he is bragging about his new big boy weapons should really worry us all.
                                                                                                                  I don't think our interpretation of what's happening fits reality though. People were calling Biden a slam dunk at much shorter prices, I can't recall anyone expecting Trump to have gone favourite.

                                                                                                                  Most people here can't really fathom ever voting for Trump, and yet 40%+ of the people in the US are gonna vote for him. And I don't think people spend much (any?) time trying to understand that disconnect. The simple thing is to do an SP and just presume they're all racist (just ignore that the first black president beat a rich white guy by 10m votes) or idiots. Think that's just a lazy cop out.


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                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

                                                                                                                    I don't think our interpretation of what's happening fits reality though. People were calling Biden a slam dunk at much shorter prices, I can't recall anyone expecting Trump to have gone favourite.

                                                                                                                    Most people here can't really fathom ever voting for Trump, and yet 40%+ of the people in the US are gonna vote for him. And I don't think people spend much (any?) time trying to understand that disconnect. The simple thing is to do an SP and just presume they're all racist (just ignore that the first black president beat a rich white guy by 10m votes) or idiots. Think that's just a lazy cop out.
                                                                                                                    I'm looking at the betting market only. Would you have a lump on at 11/10?
                                                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                                      John Hopkins seem to be acknowledged as the best resource so I get my fake news from there.
                                                                                                                      Just btw it's Johns Hopkins. The chap it's named after had the first name Johns

                                                                                                                      Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

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                                                                                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                                        I'm looking at the betting market only. Would you have a lump on at 11/10?
                                                                                                                        Speaking of the betting, it's all blue on Biden today after some good polls (tie in Iowa, tie in Georgia, up bigly in Michigan). You can still burgle 5/6 with Betfred, Betway, WillHill but 4/5 and 8/11 generally now. Trump 6/5.
                                                                                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                                          Put it this way; if Trump truly is tied in Iowa, then he is fucked.
                                                                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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