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    Hardly a surprise but confirmed that it was Novichok that was slipped into Navalny's tea.

    Gotta respect the Russian state's ballsy approach to murdering their opponents in plain sight. 'Fuck with us and you die in horribly excruciating fashion' surely a message to cool the jets of any nosy journalists or pesky political figures who won't toe the line.
    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

    Comment


      I'm a big Christopher Nolan fan, but I didn't enjoy a single minute of Tenet.

      Comment


        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
        Hardly a surprise but confirmed that it was Novichok that was slipped into Navalny's tea.

        Gotta respect the Russian state's ballsy approach to murdering their opponents in plain sight. 'Fuck with us and you die in horribly excruciating fashion' surely a message to cool the jets of any nosy journalists or pesky political figures who won't toe the line.
        So they obviously didn't want to kill him if they used Novichok, the nerve agent that hasn't managed to kill any of it's alleged intended victims
        Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

        Comment


          ...
          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

          Comment


            Originally posted by Jam-Fly View Post

            nuance is key and it's hard to do on twitter. Short snappy takes sell better, but complicated matters usually need more discussion. I think this leads to a lot of lumping opinions under one umbrella. I agree, it's generally a lazy approach.
            uswQdtkm.jpg
            Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

            Comment


              Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

              Comment


                Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                First, he didn't die, which is the first fairly obvious clue that this wasn't a state hit. As you say yourself the Russian state approach is to actually kill you if they want to kill you. Not to make a mistake, send you to hospital to fix you, and then fly you to Germany.
                Did Skripal die? Also poisoned with Novichok, by the Russian state - not just my opinion mind, that of all the US, the UK and EU governments - you'll see the Germans have also determined the same about Navalny.

                He did not.

                It's about the message - which is pure intimidation.

                Your commitment to defending the autocracy is commendable though. Keep it up and you'll get the Order of the Useful Idiot.

                More sanctions plz.
                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                Comment


                  Originally posted by ComradeCollie View Post

                  So they obviously didn't want to kill him if they used Novichok, the nerve agent that hasn't managed to kill any of it's alleged intended victims
                  Like I say, it's about intimidation. Whether the victim lives or dies is secondary.

                  Wouldn't mind getting your thoughts on what the USSR has turned into. Especially on how its former KGB has become the sole power in the land. Have you read Putins People?
                  Last edited by Raoul Duke III; 02-09-20, 19:37.
                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by ComradeCollie View Post
                    Same gene pool as the worst Americans.
                    I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                      Like I say, it's about intimidation. Whether the victim lives or dies is secondary.

                      Wouldn't mind getting your thoughts on what the USSR has turned into. Especially on how its former KGB has become the sole power in the land. Have you read Putins People?
                      Don't really have much insight or opinion on it really. Did mean to get Fiona Hills book on Putin, as I was so impressed with her at the Trump impeachment hearings https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mr-Putin-Op...9076530&sr=8-1
                      I'm way behind on a Python course I'm doing at the moment, so won't be reading much unrelated to that for a while.
                      Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

                      Comment


                        ...
                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                        Comment


                          ...
                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                            And how is your opening post comment of "fuck with us and you die" strengthened by talking about Skripal also not dying?!

                            ​​​​​
                            'Fuck with us and we inflict horrible things'?

                            Stalin at least had the decency to do this stuff behind closed doors.
                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                              'Fuck with us and we inflict horrible things'?

                              Stalin at least had the decency to do this stuff behind closed doors.
                              Car crash me arse. Liam Lawlor knew too much :-)

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                Which Python course are you doing CC?
                                I've been mostly making little applications using gooey and pyinstaller.
                                Lots of fun and saving me a ton of time in work.

                                (maybe not a ton, I could probably do it just as quick in .net ,definitely a smaller executable but it's nice to create a little exe in 15 lines of code)
                                People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                Comment


                                  ...
                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by eamonhonda View Post
                                    Everyone thought he would be beat last time, surely there's better even shots to get 4 figures on. The place is nuts, anything could happen.
                                    He was closer to 2/1 a couple of weeks ago.
                                    You owe me a tenner.
                                    "Gibney might be the greatest hero of our time." (Keane, 2012; Hitchhiker, 2017)

                                    "Frank Gibney, he's my favourite ." (careca, 2012)
                                    "Frank Gibney, he's my favourite." (mikeb, 2017)

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                      Which Python course are you doing CC?
                                      This one with ecollege.ie The last bit of programming I did was in Fortran 77, 30 years ago, so have to start somewhere introductory. https://www.ecollege.ie/courses/intr...-using-python/
                                      Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

                                      Comment


                                        At least big Phil didn’t try this excuse (pelosi saying no mask salon footage was a setup)
                                        typical alcoholic reasoning, it’s never their fault
                                        https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bbc....anada-54007103

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by Frank Gibney View Post

                                          He was closer to 2/1 a couple of weeks ago.
                                          You owe me a tenner.
                                          I do! Well i will if he doesnt get shot before November, I'm holding out!
                                          airport, lol

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by eamonhonda View Post

                                            I do! Well i will if he doesnt get shot before November, I'm holding out!
                                            He's probably on the red phone to his boss Vlad asking where he can get a dose of Novichok, for a friend.
                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                            Comment


                                              They said the revolution would be televised live

                                              Fake news! It was the death of American democracy that was live on TV




                                              We now know that there are no patriots in the Pentagon
                                              Turning millions into thousands

                                              Comment


                                                There's a good piece on the Navalny poisoning in the Guardian today, mostly just stating the obvious.

                                                western leaders can now be in little doubt: the evidence leads directly to Moscow and its secret spy agencies. And to Vladimir Putin’s own door.
                                                Some poisons can be bought in shops. But not novichok, which Soviet scientists developed during the cold war in closed laboratories. It is the prerogative of one state only: Russia. Over the past decade Moscow has produced and stockpiled small quantities, western intelligence agencies believe. Putin is closely involved, they add. Special units developed innovative ways to deliver it, including smearing it on door handles.
                                                the choice of poison is no accident. It is a calling card – less of a hint and more of a flashing neon sign. By using novichok, Moscow delivers a message of menace and contempt, demonstrative in nature and aimed both at the west and at the president’s hard-pressed domestic critics.
                                                The Kremlin insists there is nothing to investigate. And yet these official denials are done with a wink and smirk. The subtext is clear: that traitors who oppose state power can expect unusual punishment.
                                                One other unresolved question is why Moscow granted permission for Navalny to be treated abroad, knowing that sooner or later the novichok inside his body would be detected. Der Spiegel reported on Wednesday that German scientists had consulted with their British colleagues at Porton Down, the government science facility near Salisbury, which first identified the nerve agent used against the Skripals. The logical conclusion: Moscow wants the world to know.
                                                Now watch Trump's total silence on the matter. If he gets in again, it will embolden his boss still further.
                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                Comment


                                                  I thought they explicitly said the revolution will not be televised
                                                  airport, lol

                                                  Comment


                                                    And we wouldn't let poor Phil away with eating one illicit dinner

                                                    Decent skewering


                                                    Turning millions into thousands

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by eamonhonda View Post
                                                      I thought they explicitly said the revolution will not be televised
                                                      and they said:

                                                      There will be no pictures of pigs shooting down brothers on the instant replay
                                                      (completely 100% wrong of course but also feels prophetic, when was that thing written?)
                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                        There's a good piece on the Navalny poisoning in the Guardian today, mostly just stating the obvious.
                                                        Now watch Trump's total silence on the matter. If he gets in again, it will embolden his boss still further.
                                                        Someone said on the radio this morning that choosing to use Novichok was less evidence that pointed towards Putin but him leaving his signature at the scene of the crime.
                                                        Turning millions into thousands

                                                        Comment


                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post



                                                          (completely 100% wrong of course but also feels prophetic, when was that thing written?)
                                                          Not sure but i dont think the iphone had a camera in Gills day
                                                          airport, lol

                                                          Comment


                                                            Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post

                                                            Someone said on the radio this morning that choosing to use Novichok was less evidence that pointed towards Putin but him leaving his signature at the scene of the crime.
                                                            Exactly. They want everyone to know what they are capable of.

                                                            Only the larceny takes place behind closed doors. Wouldn't do to have the serfs know how much Vlad and his buddies have looted and stashed offshore.
                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by eamonhonda View Post
                                                              I thought they explicitly said the revolution will not be televised
                                                              Indeed, its very early so lets brighten up the day and play it twice

                                                              Turning millions into thousands

                                                              Comment


                                                                Is it legal to put in an employment contract that you can't discuss pay terms with colleagues?
                                                                ﴾͡๏̯͡๏﴿

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                  Exactly. They want everyone to know what they are capable of.

                                                                  Only the larceny takes place behind closed doors. Wouldn't do to have the serfs know how much Vlad and his buddies have looted and stashed offshore.
                                                                  I'm nearly finished A Gentleman in Moscow, I'll give it a week or two to settle in after I'm finished before I comment but I've got more notes and questions than I usually do from a novel.

                                                                  I almost gave up before it stopped being an adult Enid Blyton and started being quite wonderful but I suspect there is too much of it underpinned by a yearning for the days before the revolution.
                                                                  Turning millions into thousands

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Meanwhile there are still things we could learn from American democracy

                                                                    This is the revolution we need

                                                                    Turning millions into thousands

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post

                                                                      I'm nearly finished A Gentleman in Moscow, I'll give it a week or two to settle in after I'm finished before I comment but I've got more notes and questions than I usually do from a novel.

                                                                      I almost gave up before it stopped being an adult Enid Blyton and started being quite wonderful but I suspect there is too much of it underpinned by a yearning for the days before the revolution.
                                                                      I think the historical setting is very much secondary to the characters myself. It could have been set in any number of historical locales.
                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        ...
                                                                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          ...
                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            The US election betting does require you to take the view that if both candidates are 10/11, then PP have got their state betting all wrong:

                                                                            Arizona: Dem 4/5, GOP 10/11
                                                                            Florida: Dem 8/11, GOP Evs
                                                                            Georgia: GOP 4/11, Dem 15/8
                                                                            Michigan: Dem 4/11, GOP 15/8
                                                                            North Carolina: GOP 4/5, Dem 10/11
                                                                            Ohio: GOP 1/2, Dem 13/8
                                                                            Pennsylvania: Dem 8/15, GOP 11/8
                                                                            Wisconsin: Dem 8/15, GOP 11/8

                                                                            if you take the view that those markets are correct, then Biden wins 319 to 219

                                                                            If Trump wins FL (which he has to imo), then it's Biden by 290 to 248

                                                                            So, of the Dem favs, you have to assume Trump wins FL, and two of Arizona\Wisconsin\Pennsylvania\Michigan. And holds all the swing states where he is fav.

                                                                            The path to victory for him just looks much more problematic than for Biden.
                                                                            1. If Biden wins FL, he wins.
                                                                            2. If Biden wins two of Arizona\Wisconsin\Pennsylvania\Michigan, he wins.
                                                                            3. If Biden flips any swing state where Trump is fav, he wins

                                                                            Here's one; If Trump wins FL, AR and WI (and all other swing states go per today's betting), it's 269 each.
                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Think I have talked myself into lumpage on Biden.
                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                ...
                                                                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                  Think I have talked myself into lumpage on Biden.
                                                                                  Some would say you are on Drugs. I say a shrewd bet .

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                    Think I have talked myself into lumpage on Biden.
                                                                                    Hopefully, you are right. What mistake do you think the bookies are making?

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post

                                                                                      Some would say you are on Drugs. I say a shrewd bet .
                                                                                      If you are looking to have a lump on, and can't be arsed walking to the shops, Ladbrokes took my lumpage online without question.

                                                                                      On at 10/11

                                                                                      Let's hope for more of this:
                                                                                      020220-04-Truman-Dewey-Politics-Vote-Election.jpg
                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                        The US election betting does require you to take the view that if both candidates are 10/11, then PP have got their state betting all wrong:

                                                                                        Arizona: Dem 4/5, GOP 10/11
                                                                                        Florida: Dem 8/11, GOP Evs
                                                                                        Georgia: GOP 4/11, Dem 15/8
                                                                                        Michigan: Dem 4/11, GOP 15/8
                                                                                        North Carolina: GOP 4/5, Dem 10/11
                                                                                        Ohio: GOP 1/2, Dem 13/8
                                                                                        Pennsylvania: Dem 8/15, GOP 11/8
                                                                                        Wisconsin: Dem 8/15, GOP 11/8

                                                                                        if you take the view that those markets are correct, then Biden wins 319 to 219

                                                                                        If Trump wins FL (which he has to imo), then it's Biden by 290 to 248

                                                                                        So, of the Dem favs, you have to assume Trump wins FL, and two of Arizona\Wisconsin\Pennsylvania\Michigan. And holds all the swing states where he is fav.

                                                                                        The path to victory for him just looks much more problematic than for Biden.
                                                                                        1. If Biden wins FL, he wins.
                                                                                        2. If Biden wins two of Arizona\Wisconsin\Pennsylvania\Michigan, he wins.
                                                                                        3. If Biden flips any swing state where Trump is fav, he wins

                                                                                        Here's one; If Trump wins FL, AR and WI (and all other swing states go per today's betting), it's 269 each.
                                                                                        And if it’s a Tie the house has the casting vote
                                                                                        His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                          There's awful politics in the place I'm leaving. Proper top-level stabbing in the back, front, side, whatever gets the blade in. I therefore absolutely loved it until the summer when I had to take time off for the health thing. But there's been a niggling thing over the summer that this new director was messing with a particular decision I'd made to hire someone. He has the ultimate responsibility to sign off on the hiring and seemed, for some reason I haven't quite worked out, to be trying to stop it. It almost seemed to be a 'fuck you' thing to me because we've destroyed each other in the past (as the saying goes, the reason why church / uni politics are so brutal is because the stakes are so little).

                                                                                          So I've been trying to get the decision taken out of his hands without being too obvious, and got it on the agenda for a meeting this morning. He did the best he could by putting it last on the agenda and thus probably not likely to be got to. But I jumped in at the last moment in the meeting and said - I'd really like to finish the meeting, and indeed my last meeting (sympathetic audience +1), with a great positive decision on starting a new research career for someone. Has anyone seen the application by XXX and would you have any opinions? Then three people out of six in the meeting that I'd talked to yesterday stepped up to the plate and one by one went - Never seen a better application. Is this heaven because we're about to recruit an angel? - the guy tries a last-minute maneuver to get it discussed at the next meeting, but the three step up again and firmly say it should be now. Boom, decision made, he knew he'd lost the audience, and anyway including me it was four votes in favour if it went to a vote.

                                                                                          It was kinda contrariness on my part. That this fucker was trying to do something that would affect an actual person just to spite me. But man all three of those folks that stepped up are on my eternal good list. Just doing it out of friendliness and wanting to give a good goodbye. Solid people.


                                                                                          This conjured up an image of Mcmurphy trying to get a vote on the world series game.

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post

                                                                                            Hopefully, you are right. What mistake do you think the bookies are making?
                                                                                            per my earlier post, Biden's path to victory in the EC looks far more straightforward than Trump
                                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Start with the definites.

                                                                                              Trump has a lock on 20 states with 126 EC votes:
                                                                                              State EC Votes
                                                                                              Alabama 9
                                                                                              Alaska 3
                                                                                              Arkansas 6
                                                                                              Idaho 4
                                                                                              Indiana 11
                                                                                              Kansas 6
                                                                                              Kentucky 8
                                                                                              Louisiana 8
                                                                                              Mississippi 6
                                                                                              Missouri 10
                                                                                              Montana 3
                                                                                              Nebraska 5
                                                                                              North Dakota 3
                                                                                              Oklahoma 7
                                                                                              South Carolina 9
                                                                                              South Dakota 3
                                                                                              Tennessee 11
                                                                                              Utah 6
                                                                                              West Virginia 5
                                                                                              Wyoming 3
                                                                                              Biden however has a lock on 18 states (+DC) with 217 EC votes:
                                                                                              State EC Votes
                                                                                              California 55
                                                                                              Colorado 9
                                                                                              Conneticut 7
                                                                                              Delaware 3
                                                                                              Hawaii 4
                                                                                              Illinois 20
                                                                                              Maine 4
                                                                                              Maryland 10
                                                                                              Massachusetts 11
                                                                                              New Hampshire 4
                                                                                              New Jersey 14
                                                                                              New Mexico 5
                                                                                              New York 29
                                                                                              Oregon 7
                                                                                              Rhode Island 4
                                                                                              Vermont 3
                                                                                              Virginia 13
                                                                                              Washington 12
                                                                                              Washington DC 3
                                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                So there is really only 195 votes that are actually in play, spread across 12 states.

                                                                                                Trump must win > 143\195, whereas Biden only needs to win >42/195
                                                                                                State EC Votes
                                                                                                Arizona 11
                                                                                                Florida 29
                                                                                                Georgia 16
                                                                                                Iowa 6
                                                                                                Michigan 16
                                                                                                Minnesota 10
                                                                                                Nevada 6
                                                                                                North Carolina 15
                                                                                                Ohio 18
                                                                                                Pennsylvania 20
                                                                                                Texas 38
                                                                                                Wisconsin 10
                                                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Of those 12 States, Iowa, Texas and Ohio I tend to give to Trump.

                                                                                                  Minnesota and Nevada, I tend to give to Biden

                                                                                                  So now we're at Trump 176 plays Biden 233 and it all comes down to:
                                                                                                  State EC Votes Lean Trump Lean Biden
                                                                                                  Arizona 11 Yes
                                                                                                  Florida 29 Yes
                                                                                                  Georgia 16 Yes
                                                                                                  Michigan 16 Yes
                                                                                                  North Carolina 15 Yes
                                                                                                  Pennsylvania 20 Yes
                                                                                                  Wisconsin 10 Yes
                                                                                                  it's a much bigger ask for Trump. He has to win FL and a couple of others.

                                                                                                  There will of course be swongs and I will no doubt be proved wrong all over the shop. But I'm on now anyway and feel good about it.
                                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Originally posted by elbows View Post

                                                                                                    And if it’s a Tie the house has the casting vote
                                                                                                    I think Pelosi would enjoy that
                                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                      If you are looking to have a lump on, and can't be arsed walking to the shops, Ladbrokes took my lumpage online without question.

                                                                                                      On at 10/11

                                                                                                      Let's hope for more of this:
                                                                                                      020220-04-Truman-Dewey-Politics-Vote-Election.jpg
                                                                                                      Already topped up my lumpage when Trumps odds came in. Of course you may be talking 4 figures I'm happy with half that.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Ladbrokes did have a couple of semi-interesting markets in there
                                                                                                        1. EC vote spreads. (If you think Trump wins, then the 270-299 EC votes might be of interest at 5/1). A tie is 100/1 elbows.
                                                                                                        2. How many of these states will Trump win? Texas - Ohio - Georgia - N.Carolina - Arizona - Florida. If you think Biden wins, then I think either 3 or 4 is the play here at 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. 5 is also a play if you think Trump wins at 8/1. They have 0 at only 4/1 and all 6 at 6/4.

                                                                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Originally posted by ComradeCollie View Post

                                                                                                          This one with ecollege.ie The last bit of programming I did was in Fortran 77, 30 years ago, so have to start somewhere introductory. https://www.ecollege.ie/courses/intr...-using-python/
                                                                                                          I posted a free course in hitches python thread. Think last day of free sign up is tomorrow but I'd recommend it
                                                                                                          People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                                                                          Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                                                                          https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post

                                                                                                            Already topped up my lumpage when Trumps odds came in. Of course you may be talking 4 figures I'm happy with half that.
                                                                                                            Without getting into the vulgarity of numbers, it'll fund the 2021 wine budget.

                                                                                                            Although taking Denny to Shanahans will put a dent in the winnings, both financial and spiritual.
                                                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Lumping on Biden is an emotionally unbalanced bet. I would rather lump on Trump rather than face both another Trump term and a losing lumpage bet at the same time.

                                                                                                              It can be quite an emotional experience who wins the American Presidency. From being very down, bewildered, and pessimistic at George W. winning it over Gore when I was living in the Middle East, to being joyful, proud, and optimistic when my hero Obama won it when I was sharing an apartment in America with a black woman.

                                                                                                              Biden winning it this year would be relief more than anything else, and optimism too as I think decency tends to prevail. Trump winning would make me despair for for the short term future of politics in the world. Even though I understand that's reading more into the situation in some ways than is warranted given the system. But I believe that Americans will do the right thing, and there is no reason to dislike Biden as much as many did Hillary Clinton.

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                ...
                                                                                                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                                                                                                                  Isn't that precisely one of the reasons why the odds are likely to be disproportionately off. If people are placing bets based on wanting the bet to be an emotional hedge against the bad news of Trump winning.

                                                                                                                  I disagree with the approach of Raoul, even if we've ended up with the same bet. Clearly any of that stuff about state voting patterns has been easily taken account of by those setting the odds. This is, to my mind, more of a good bet because of the emotions at play. People approaching the market emotionally leading to an underestimation of Biden's chance of winning. I think the biggest factor is Trump's odds being disproportionately low (and therefore Biden disproportionately high) because of people thinking 'Trump won in a surprise the last time, so lets factor in a surprise as highly likely this time, no matter what the polls say'. That takes no account of learning by pollsters, or indeed learning by the population - who are now telling pollsters their much more informed decisions on who they will vote for and are picking Biden by a landslide'.
                                                                                                                  I think we can both be right here. i.e. that I can be right that Biden has an easier path to 270 than Trump and you can be right about a degree of irrationality?
                                                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    ...
                                                                                                                    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      First week of double junior infants starting done (wife kindly does Fridays ).....currently ensconsed in two seperate whatsapp groups with 27 young wans in each. Feel a bit like Hugh Hefner

                                                                                                                      Question is how many Fridays can i dodge before the wife gets wind of these

                                                                                                                      PS can a newbie to a whatsapp group see the old messages? Asking for a friend....

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        It's kind of a testament to Trumps lunacy that you cant actually describe his every day communications without it sounding emotional. I'm betting based on logic and information available to me. The neigh sayers are emotional if you ask me.

                                                                                                                        if its emotional ya want.
                                                                                                                        Too many damn nose peakers out there . Wtf . Either wear the mask or not ya stooopid ejits

                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                                                                                          First week of double junior infants starting done (wife kindly does Fridays ).....currently ensconsed in two seperate whatsapp groups with 27 young wans in each. Feel a bit like Hugh Hefner

                                                                                                                          Question is how many Fridays can i dodge before the wife gets wind of these

                                                                                                                          PS can a newbie to a whatsapp group see the old messages? Asking for a friend....
                                                                                                                          Gigiddy

                                                                                                                          Comment

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