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    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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      ...
      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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        Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

        Absolutely. You're right on this. But I think we also mentally looked at the fact that Trump was a mile ahead and just didn't weight the prior knowledge of the polls strongly enough in assessing a comeback potential. As in, we overweigthed the immediate Trump votes and underweighted the base rates.
        It was after the comeback was well in motion and local gurus like Ralston were definitively telling us places like Nevada were in the bag. There were others in the likes of MI/WI that I've already unfollowed saying similar. We were seeing '35k votes about to drop from county X that will favour Biden by 72/28" - there was no reaction to the info in the market, and even when the votes were confirmed the reaction was glacial. I think the market was so huge that the more considered money was just being swallowed up by people pushing buttons based on what CNN/Fox was telling them fifteen minutes after you could have heard about it from local twitter.

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          ...
          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

          Comment


            Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

            Absolutely. You're right on this. But I think we also mentally looked at the fact that Trump was a mile ahead and just didn't weight the prior knowledge of the polls strongly enough in assessing a comeback potential. As in, we overweigthed the immediate Trump votes and underweighted the base rates.
            I also think Miami Dade whacked the confidence out of everyone.
            I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

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              ...
              Last edited by Hitchhiker's Guide To...; 07-11-20, 11:58.
              "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

              Comment


                ...
                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                  Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                  Since starting working in Dublin have got into this rather bitter feud with an economist colleague, mainly centred around tweets about lockdown. He's at the same career level as me so its a socially acceptable feud. At one stage he was messaging me with the economist equivalent of 'do you even lift bro?' (aka - do you even cost-benefit analysis bro). Man, I hate economists. They have this weird sense of knowing everything about how the world works despite just about every single one of their models being wrong. Like fundamentally and completely wrong. Don't take my word for it - here is Paul Romer, Nobel Prize winning economist saying economics is largely crap. And yet they have this cold arrogance, its mad really. By contrast, I have views on a lot of things, but not a lot of confidence in those views - and so frequently adjust those views.

                  Anyway, every weekend I try to send out a tweet mainly aimed at him without saying his name but that he absolutely knows is directly about him.


                  SPOILER
                  Is there much of an upside for you in having these arguments on Twitter? Like is it good for your profile, or do you knock a bit of craic out of it? I was an awful wasp for it years ago but I've just become allergic over the years.

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                    Demolished three seasons of Dark in less than three weeks and that's probably the best way of doing it.
                    If you like Time travel yarns this is one of the best IMO
                    Season one and two are excellent, Se03 looks like its going off the rails and definitely could have been edited down an episode or two a but IMO they pull it all back together very satisfyingly in the final episode.
                    Turning millions into thousands

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                      In case anyone else is eager to know what constitutes an academic fight on Twitter-which in and of itself may be an oxymoron



                      Is it the person he's retweeting that you're aiming this at?
                      Last edited by Murdrum; 07-11-20, 12:39.

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                        ...
                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                          ...
                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                            I'll take a mulligan pls.

                            Fucked if I'm going back reading that in my current fragile state.

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                              Got out of the house, it felt weird.

                              So what's the state of play, seems like:
                              1. NV has a big Clark County (Vegas) dump due at 4pm and then should be done and we expect Biden to win with an increased margin. Given that Fox haven't changed their AZ call, this would put Biden over the top with 270 - but not with CNN. Can we expect a Trump tweetstorm praising CNN and shitting on FOX?
                              2. GA has Biden + 7,250 and this should go up to maybe 10k or so. Guaranteed recount though.
                              3. AZ has Biden +30k and Maricopa (Phoenix) has another vote dump coming at 4pm
                              4. PA seems to be methodically going through their remaining votes. Biden will end up +100k or more here and we'll be done.
                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                Turning millions into thousands

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                                  Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post

                                  I saw a good quote recently, I wish I had saved it... it was about how engineers like Scott often make the mistake of thinking the rest of the world works along the lines of their comparatively simple field of rumexpertise. It would also apply to Denny's belief that options traders should run countries.
                                  Run a country? Nah you need someone political like Bertie to run a country.

                                  But managing a novel pandemic? Who else deals with unknowns with asymmetrical pay offs on a more regular basis? Experts are great in static situations in their domains, they suck at fast changing situations. Look at the analysis over the last year? Options traders have been on top on it. While the expert epidemiologists at Cambridge are still pushing their "studies" that half of the Uk have had Covid. Can't believe you're even trying to have a dig about this

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                                    Originally posted by Mellor View Post

                                    People probably do have a tendency to be promoted past their competency and stop there, possibly because they were found out. But that wouldn’t be Dunning Kruger effect imo.
                                    I think Denny (or maybe Hitch) posted before about it being misused a lot as a term.
                                    It's usually a safe bet when someone mentions it, they're dunning kruger themselves. Not me though obviously.
                                    Last edited by Denny Crane; 07-11-20, 14:05.

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                                      Moar election themed betting selections while we wait.

                                      How's about On To Victory in the next at Doncaster?
                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                        Not a Leeds fan but Bamfords offside is everything that is wrong with VAR
                                        ﴾͡๏̯͡๏﴿

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                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                          Moar election themed betting selections while we wait.

                                          How's about On To Victory in the next at Doncaster?
                                          Hosed up @10/1
                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                            Hosed up @10/1
                                            Need to play up this streak. Some Chaos in the next at Wincanton.
                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                              Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                                              I think Drunk Nic did raise a decent point about the Wednesday morning market, when Biden was available from 2/1 to 11/4 for around 90 minutes.
                                              We knew in advance that the exit polls on mail-ins & early voting suggested a 3 to 1 split for Biden, whilst on-day voting would favour Trump, And it was also known and reported that that the latter votes would be counted first. So we missed out by not being prepared in advance to go in big in this window. This was a monster opportunity which was let slip.

                                              It also suggests that despite it being the biggest market of all time, and the most discussed and analysed, that there wasn't a huge understanding of it (Or that maybe there was some clever 'back to lay' money on Trump in the days beforehand which explains why his price was so consistent around 7/4. I doubt it though).

                                              I wonder are horse-racing markets still wiser. It's 11 years since Zenyatta's ridiculously come from behind victory in the Classic at Santa Anita. Being 12 lengths tailed off at halfway wasn't a surprise, I've no idea if the in-running market over-reacted.
                                              Hindsight is 20 : 20. The networks did a really bad job breaking down the percentage of outstanding ballots that were mail in and we had watched early Biden leads in Texas and Ohio evaporate as counting wore on. There were likely people who went to bed at 11pm Tuesday night and work up 8am Wednesday morning who would have found it a lot easier to pull the trigger on a top up. But for any of us who had sweated proceedings from midnight through to 5am it was much more difficult to see the wood from the trees.

                                              Everything about this count has been conducted within an historically different context which all analysts and networks have struggled to react to and clearly describe. Sure, the more it wears on the more obvious it is that Biden was always good, but I certainly understand why I couldn't see that in the moment.
                                              "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

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                                                Still 20k clear in AZ and looks like Trump has no road left to overtake. Probably in recount territory though.

                                                Moar votes coming from Pittsburgh imminently
                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                  We're into the closing stretch here. PA just gone +31k for Biden and nothing but more of the same coming....nearly up that >0.5% point (no recount and *might* be where the networks call it)
                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                    woah

                                                    CNN just called it
                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                      CNN Projected Biden Winner.
                                                      Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

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                                                        NBC calls it
                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                            CNN have called PA and the race
                                                            I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

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                                                              FOX being niggardly
                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                More votes came in PA too, he's now 35k clear - above the 0.5% barrier
                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                  BBC, AP, SKY News, ABC all gone to 273.
                                                                  Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

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                                                                    A Mayo man in the White House begob. And not even going in through the delivery gate.
                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                      Well done men. I feel like our efforts were critical here.
                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                        Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post

                                                                        Will the correctly spelled SOLSKJAER be sacked this weekend ?
                                                                        As promised, the instrumental version! I wanted to wait until I had the bass recorded properly.

                                                                        https://soundcloud.com/user-53190158.../s-ziha2YIplQ8

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                                                                          Disappointing lack of ripping off shirts and twirling them round heads on CNN.
                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                            I suppose we should really be saying that they have called it as a Trump loss. Not sure it mattered all that much who was up against him. This was always going to be a referendum on Trump.
                                                                            Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

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                                                                              And FOX calls both PA and NV.....we're done here
                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                ...
                                                                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                  Trump v Biden suspended on Paddy Power.
                                                                                  Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

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                                                                                    Monkey down on Xander on the machine. This is his year.

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                                                                                      Betfred have settled fwiw so I guess you Biden backers should see $$$$ shortly
                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                        Betfred have settled fwiw so I guess you Biden backers should see $$$$ shortly
                                                                                        Still 1.04 on the machine

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                                                                                          Here's a thought; the result of this election just proves what incredible political instincts Trump has.

                                                                                          Remember that he sent his goons off digging for dirt on Biden in Ukraine long before the Dem primaries. Biden was always the one that scared him - he was right.
                                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                            Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
                                                                                            Trump v Biden suspended on Paddy Power.
                                                                                            As a punter on the exc, my fear would be a suspension of betting but not settling the market.

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                                                                                              Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                                                              As a punter on the exc, my fear would be a suspension of betting but not settling the market.
                                                                                              Bookies seem to be settling away in any case - Betfred and Bet365 have paid out - so surely BF can't be too far behind.

                                                                                              Small brag; every bet I made was at better than the BF odds.
                                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                There's the Biden win bets below:
                                                                                                Row Labels Sum of stake
                                                                                                10/11 2,450
                                                                                                20/23 600
                                                                                                17/20 1,799
                                                                                                5/6 800
                                                                                                4/5 500
                                                                                                20/29 100
                                                                                                2/3 200
                                                                                                13/20 400
                                                                                                20/33 100
                                                                                                10/17 100
                                                                                                4/7 1,500
                                                                                                8/15 850
                                                                                                13/25 1,000
                                                                                                Grand Total 10,399
                                                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                  Delighted to see Biden win the election
                                                                                                  "you raise, i kill you" El Tren :{)

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                                                                                                    Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post

                                                                                                    As promised, the instrumental version! I wanted to wait until I had the bass recorded properly.

                                                                                                    https://soundcloud.com/user-53190158.../s-ziha2YIplQ8
                                                                                                    That's very nice . Dilute the drums on the original and I'd add it to my Spotify and youd earn 0.002 cents

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                                                                                                        There's the sidebets, probably win another 400 there when GA and NC called
                                                                                                        Bet Stake Odds To Win
                                                                                                        Trump to win 3 of TX, OH, GA, NC,AZ, FL 56.07 7.5 420.525
                                                                                                        Trump to win 4 of TX, OH, GA, NC,AZ, FL 75 8 600
                                                                                                        Trump to win 5 of TX, OH, GA, NC,AZ, FL 50 8.5 425
                                                                                                        Dems to win 360-389 EC Votes 100 12 1200
                                                                                                        Biden to win Florida 100 1.1 100
                                                                                                        Biden to win Georgia 80 1.25 100
                                                                                                        461.07
                                                                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                          Bookies seem to be settling away in any case - Betfred and Bet365 have paid out - so surely BF can't be too far behind.

                                                                                                          Small brag; every bet I made was at better than the BF odds.
                                                                                                          BF exc is different than a bookmaker. Although I believe technically the liability sits with the exc, they're really just a market maker and arbiter.

                                                                                                          Bookies can take a different line because liability is totally their own.

                                                                                                          As I said previously, I'm saying they won't settle but they have no incentive to settle outside of consumer pushback.

                                                                                                          Bookies have incentive to stop because they own the liability. BF exc have no incentive to settle the market.

                                                                                                          In turn that puts PP in an awkward spot because they're inextricably linked and given the market size, I think consistency across brands is likely.

                                                                                                          Maybe BF just waiting to hit that magical 600m mark

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                                                                                                            Boyles paid out too.

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                                                                                                              Boyle’s have paid out anyway, withdraw request gone in!

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                                                                                                                I've a 'Democrats to win' bet with PP, not paid out yet.

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                                                                                                                  30m+ matched on BF overnight. 800k offered at 1.03. Can't see them closing it.

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                                                                                                                    You better believe that's a hair sniffing!

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                                                                                                                      Here's a question, do you think Trump actually believes his own BS? Do you think he actually believes there has been widespread voter fraud? or is it all an angleshoot?

                                                                                                                      This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
                                                                                                                      All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
                                                                                                                      The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

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                                                                                                                        For all the golf nerds:

                                                                                                                        https://datagolf.com/

                                                                                                                        This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
                                                                                                                        All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
                                                                                                                        The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.

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                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Theresa View Post
                                                                                                                          Here's a question, do you think Trump actually believes his own BS? Do you think he actually believes there has been widespread voter fraud? or is it all an angleshoot?
                                                                                                                          I don't think you can behave the way he does and clearly delineate between truth and lie. After a while everything is meaningless

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