M8 you the professor, I hold my hand's up on the two American German sounding fuckers. I was winging it XX
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostSo it's down to PA really to get this thing done. Where are those infamous 30k Pittsburgh votes?Last edited by Raoul Duke III; 07-11-20, 02:36."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
The post-vote shenanigans are in full effect now and don't seem capable of doing anything other than embarrassing Trump further and causing some yet to come localised violence.
True but ny point on the vote is anyone who didn't factor in at least .04 at evens on this happening post vote and shouting now when's it going to be paid out is naive.
This was always ambiguous unless stipulated and agreed beforehand.
The betfair market is who will be he next president, not who wins the vote to be next president .. if you see what I'm saying.
In a normal year I don't see that market settled until January when the next President takes over. So Betfair get there big of extra vig like a solicitor stalling on an insurance settlement laying in their acc for six month. I know no interest these day but Betfair isn't Bet "fair" they are a black hole.
I digress, point is this year more than ever anyone betting this thing who hadn't factored in 10/20% of the price as not being pot election happening's is a fish.
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Originally posted by nicnicnic View Postpoint is this year more than ever anyone betting this thing who hadn't factored in 10/20% of the price as not being pot election happening's is a fish.
I must have missed your sophisticated contributions to the debate before the election itself"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
good point! although wouldn't the commission be 5% of 4% - so a net return of 3.8%?
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Originally posted by nicnicnic View Post
I edited my first post re Denny before reading this, jumped the gun a bit hands up .
True but ny point on the vote is anyone who didn't factor in at least .04 at evens on this happening post vote and shouting now when's it going to be paid out is naive.
This was always ambiguous unless stipulated and agreed beforehand.
The betfair market is who will be he next president, not who wins the vote to be next president .. if you see what I'm saying.
In a normal year I don't see that market settled until January when the next President takes over. So Betfair get there big of extra vig like a solicitor stalling on an insurance settlement laying in their acc for six month. I know no interest these day but Betfair isn't Bet "fair" they are a black hole.
I digress, point is this year more than ever anyone betting this thing who hadn't factored in 10/20% of the price as not being pot election happening's is a fish.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
this seems to be C Kid levels of post-event analysis
I must have missed your sophisticated contributions to the debate before the election itself
Happy enough with my sophisticated contributions to the debate before the election, one post suggesting no play. .
You made the perfect call in 1000 posts pre election, then shit yourself and ran off to bed at 4.30am night of election when you should have been banging the 11/4 with. Sophisticated contributions like!
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Guest
Don't mind nicnicnic golf predictions, follow me for the Masters and you're sure to win.
I'll be hanging my hat on Westwood this year at 170s. Back on form after a few years away and he likes it there.
5/8 Top 10s in Augusta, 7/8 Top 20s between 2010-2017
My golfing credentials include a double digit handicap of my own and being the only person to back Danny Willett to ship The Masters in 2016.
Also, worth noting with all Nic's golfing tips, his tips stipulate that if you win, all future proceeds must be subsequently placed on Martin Kaymer, just something to be aware of I feel.
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Guest
An interesting theory that I read about the day of the election called “The Blackmail Theory”. Researcher showed that since early 1970s 21% of presidential elections globally have been disputed.
Two of the influential factors in the probability of disputing an election is a country with a first past the post electoral system and a candidate who’s party has minority positions in lower houses.
The idea is that the losing candidate is simply pressing the matter themselves or through agreement with party officials in order to get concessions. In the case of Trump, the one that party officials may be pressing is an agreement not to change the structure of the Supreme Court.
I don’t doubt Trump is narcissistic enough to simply be throwing a tantrum but interesting to see if the Democrats actually cede anything to the Republicans to put an end to the shit show.Last edited by Guest; 07-11-20, 06:40.
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Originally posted by Solksjaer! View PostBuying biden on a bargain . No drugs on board . Florida always a flip.
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Originally posted by Emmet View PostForget about Westwood - loser.
Rahm for Masters.
As usual, please no 'standard photocopy yank' if not one of my stable.
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Originally posted by Emmet View PostForget about Westwood - loser.
Rahm for Masters.
As usual, please no 'standard photocopy yank' if not one of my stable.
Originally posted by Solksjaer View Post
Deshambeau is a terrible price . However it will be fascinating watching how he does. I'm scared of Bubba , he is sneaking back to form . Going with him and Scott. Be also interesting to see how the greens are . A bit slower might suit aggressive putters- Thomas ?
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With DeChambeau, Rahm, Rory and whoever else is at the top, I find it pretty hard to back at the top of the market. The gap between the top few guys and field isn’t that big, must be a little value elsewhere.
Pressed to pick one, I’d probably take Rahm or Xander because it’s only a matter of time with them.
Westwood or Kokrak further down the field.
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Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
He’s my fav player so as a fan I hope he wins.
I really like Bubba, got on him after R2 & R3 of US Open because he was leading stats T2G so ball striking was there. He’s streaky and generally a bad putter.
With DeChambeau, Rahm, Rory and whoever else is at the top, I find it pretty hard to back at the top of the market. The gap between the top few guys and field isn’t that big, must be a little value elsewhere.
Pressed to pick one, I’d probably take Rahm or Xander because it’s only a matter of time with them.
Westwood or Kokrak further down the field.
I'd love to see Phil do it..but alas.
No love for Hatton ? I love how he wears his heart on his sleeve but it doesntc effect him too much. Speith is similar . Great listening to them and seeing despite their level of expertise they have a human side they cant suppress .
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Originally posted by Keane View PostThis Trump bet has really rustled some jimmies.
1) Settled on Tuesday Night
This is possible but not probable. For this to happen, there would need to be a sizeable win for Joe Biden in Florida, coupled with three or four other key states reporting results faster than is anticipated.
2) Settled on Wednesday or Thursday
This appears more likely than a Tuesday settlement, given the logistics of the counts. Significant increases in postal ballots will, for example, cause counts to be slower than previous elections. Betfair markets would remain active and trading throughout.
3) Contested Result
A contested result includes a legal battle regarding re-count, the Supreme Court deciding the winner and any scenario other than a clean Electoral College vote majority.
This could happen if we see a margin of less than 1% in a key state like Florida, Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nothing would be conceded in this scenario and the projections couldn't be made given the margins involved.
There is potential after a re-count that a result would be determined, but legal challenges would be likely should the state Electoral College total be the balance of power in terms of winning the presidency or not.
There is no way of giving a clear view of settlement time in advance in this case, but these market rules will apply:"If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled."
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Originally posted by nicnicnic View Post
Your point ? If I tip something |'ll show my bets , where are yours .. where were yousr on Hillary 4 year ago for that matter ?
This seems like a 'show us your dick' post.
I hardly ever publish my actual bets in here (unless it's something amusing). I'll make an exception this time (although if you want a headline I stand to win ~8.1k, depending on how GA and NC get called that'll move slightly up or down by a few hundred. That's from a total stake of ~11k.). So nothing earth-shattering but by far the most I've ever put on a single event. Most of the loot went down on 10/11, 4/5, 5/6 prices many weeks before.
I didn't back Hilary last time and published a long analysis about what a terrible candidate she was so don't know where you're coming from there.
Originally posted by nicnicnic View Post
You made the perfect call in 1000 posts pre election, then shit yourself and ran off to bed at 4.30am night of election when you should have been banging the 11/4 with. Sophisticated contributions like!
I will write up a retrospective once this fucker settles! All friends again, hugs...."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostFor me though as an amateur student of history and politics, even if I didn't have a cent on this thing, I'd still be utterly glued to it in fascination. To a degree I could't ever imagine for a sporting event.
It's like a week long World Cup final.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Masters
Top 70 ish distance to apex
Top 30 ish in world
No rookies unless massive price for the place
Bit of decent recent form
par 4 birdie or better
Greens in reg
Masters
stuck a dirty tenner on Bubba at 50's a few weeks ago...no idea why it wasn't more tbhLast edited by Guest; 07-11-20, 10:07.
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostI always understood that Dunning Kruger applied to the corporate environment. That ultimately everybody gets promoted one position above their competency level.
I think Denny (or maybe Hitch) posted before about it being misused a lot as a term.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
I hardly ever publish my actual bets in here (unless it's something amusing). I'll make an exception this time (although if you want a headline I stand to win ~8.1k, depending on how GA and NC get called that'll move slightly up or down by a few hundred. That's from a total stake of ~11k.).
I vote for more collective sweats on IrishPoliticsBoards
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostI always understood that Dunning Kruger applied to the corporate environment. That ultimately everybody gets promoted one position above their competency level.
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Originally posted by Elshambles View PostMasters
Top 70 ish distance to apex
Top 30 ish in world
No rookies unless massive price for the place
Bit of decent recent form
par 4 birdie or better
Greens in reg
Masters
stuck a dirty tenner on Bubba at 50's a few weeks ago...no idea why it wasn't more tbh
Tony FInau for me. Think it's a matter of time before he wins a major.
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
That's different, its known as The Peter Principle.
My bad.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Originally posted by Solksjaer! View PostMy bet pales in comparison to the Raoul bet. Suppose it' was easier for me to stay bullish. However I never thought Biden would lose.
Will the correctly spelled SOLSKJAER be sacked this weekend ? Rumours building g.
It's not even close to being all his fault. The players are so inconsistent and a bunch of primadonnas but he's just not a strong manager. The media fawn over Rashford but he blows extreme hot and cold.
Thing is unless things fundamentally change at the club the same thing will probably happen to his replacement whoever it is.
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I think Drunk Nic did raise a decent point about the Wednesday morning market, when Biden was available from 2/1 to 11/4 for around 90 minutes.
We knew in advance that the exit polls on mail-ins & early voting suggested a 3 to 1 split for Biden, whilst on-day voting would favour Trump, And it was also known and reported that that the latter votes would be counted first. So we missed out by not being prepared in advance to go in big in this window. This was a monster opportunity which was let slip.
It also suggests that despite it being the biggest market of all time, and the most discussed and analysed, that there wasn't a huge understanding of it (Or that maybe there was some clever 'back to lay' money on Trump in the days beforehand which explains why his price was so consistent around 7/4. I doubt it though).
I wonder are horse-racing markets still wiser. It's 11 years since Zenyatta's ridiculously come from behind victory in the Classic at Santa Anita. Being 12 lengths tailed off at halfway wasn't a surprise, I've no idea if the in-running market over-reacted.
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During a particularly extended shower yesterday I decided that all countries in the world should have the same system of government and election format. Ones that permits everyone in the world to vote in a broad way. You see in my new system everybody in the world gets to vote in every country's election to the tune of 50% (I'll allow the people of the country in question to have 50% of the votes). Obviously the world's votes are divided by region too in some way as we can't have China and India deciding everything.
Anyway the point of the this system, organised by a revamped UN, is that every week we get to have an election in a country with worldwide televised debates. We get to know about the lives of people, the issues, and politics of Eritrea, Laos, Mongolia etc. We are a connected world, the politics of one country affects others, so why should others not have a say in it? To hell with nation state vote protectionism!
And if one were minded to bet a little on the outcomes, well who am I to oppose it?
Imagine the betting scams the Asians could pull off as Danny Healy Rae becomes President (as in US style) or the Workers' Party gets a majority?
END VOTE PROTECTIONISM! NO BETTING WITHOUT REPRESENTATION!
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostI think Drunk Nic did raise a decent point about the Wednesday morning market, when Biden was available from 2/1 to 11/4 for around 90 minutes.
We knew in advance that the exit polls on mail-ins & early voting suggested a 3 to 1 split for Biden, whilst on-day voting would favour Trump, And it was also known and reported that that the latter votes would be counted first. So we missed out by not being prepared in advance to go in big in this window. This was a monster opportunity which was let slip.
It also suggests that despite it being the biggest market of all time, and the most discussed and analysed, that there wasn't a huge understanding of it (Or that maybe there was some clever 'back to lay' money on Trump in the days beforehand which explains why his price was so consistent around 7/4. I doubt it though).
I wonder are horse-racing markets still wiser. It's 11 years since Zenyatta's ridiculously come from behind victory in the Classic at Santa Anita. Being 12 lengths tailed off at halfway wasn't a surprise, I've no idea if the in-running market over-reacted.
When the dust settles we will see that the moment the polls closed barring some stragglers he was immediately the winner by something approaching 5 million votes. Some of the states we were sweating so much were never particularly close, they've just artificially appeared to be.
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Originally posted by Murdrum View PostAn interesting theory that I read about the day of the election called “The Blackmail Theory”. Researcher showed that since early 1970s 21% of presidential elections globally have been disputed.
Two of the influential factors in the probability of disputing an election is a country with a first past the post electoral system and a candidate who’s party has minority positions in lower houses.
The idea is that the losing candidate is simply pressing the matter themselves or through agreement with party officials in order to get concessions. In the case of Trump, the one that party officials may be pressing is an agreement not to change the structure of the Supreme Court.
I don’t doubt Trump is narcissistic enough to simply be throwing a tantrum but interesting to see if the Democrats actually cede anything to the Republicans to put an end to the shit show.
Sure if he did a deal on the SC it would be shitty bit of horsetrading that would be a nice win for the Fundies who put him in the White House and may well be the done thing amongst political operators. When this flailing upended turtle finally wakes up to the reality he will probably withdraw completely and hire a kid to keep the uber morons who feed off his twitter fed and watered while they figure out whether he or the daughter can try to run in '24.
My prediction is that the next time he goes to Fla he will only be dragged back to the WH kicking and screaming for some official duties he cannot dodge.
Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostAnyway, have to post Zenyatta's BC Classic win after that.
Then GAB can post Arazi in the Juv and we can move to tonight's renewal.
Looking forward to tonight we usually make a night out of it but that won't be happening this year
Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by Degag View Post
Don't follow or back golf as much as i used to but 50s definitely represented value. I see on PP he's 22s now. Don't think i could touch that. Westwood is a bit like me backing Mickelson.... just for nostalgia now. Although in their pomp Mickelson actually had a chance of winning rather than shitting himself consistently.
Tony FInau for me. Think it's a matter of time before he wins a major.
Still think he is a decent ew bet at the price and still might...
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostI think Drunk Nic did raise a decent point about the Wednesday morning market, when Biden was available from 2/1 to 11/4 for around 90 minutes.
We knew in advance that the exit polls on mail-ins & early voting suggested a 3 to 1 split for Biden, whilst on-day voting would favour Trump, And it was also known and reported that that the latter votes would be counted first. So we missed out by not being prepared in advance to go in big in this window. This was a monster opportunity which was let slip.
However, and alternate universe where Trump takes WI, AZ, NV, PA and GA looks pretty much the same in the early hours of Wednesday morning. We had no way of knowing when faced with 2/1 Biden if the postal votes would be enough.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Absolutely. You're right on this. But I think we also mentally looked at the fact that Trump was a mile ahead and just didn't weight the prior knowledge of the polls strongly enough in assessing a comeback potential. As in, we overweigthed the immediate Trump votes and underweighted the base rates.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Absolutely. You're right on this. But I think we also mentally looked at the fact that Trump was a mile ahead and just didn't weight the prior knowledge of the polls strongly enough in assessing a comeback potential. As in, we overweigthed the immediate Trump votes and underweighted the base rates.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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...Last edited by Hitchhiker's Guide To...; 07-11-20, 12:58."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostSince starting working in Dublin have got into this rather bitter feud with an economist colleague, mainly centred around tweets about lockdown. He's at the same career level as me so its a socially acceptable feud. At one stage he was messaging me with the economist equivalent of 'do you even lift bro?' (aka - do you even cost-benefit analysis bro). Man, I hate economists. They have this weird sense of knowing everything about how the world works despite just about every single one of their models being wrong. Like fundamentally and completely wrong. Don't take my word for it - here is Paul Romer, Nobel Prize winning economist saying economics is largely crap. And yet they have this cold arrogance, its mad really. By contrast, I have views on a lot of things, but not a lot of confidence in those views - and so frequently adjust those views.
Anyway, every weekend I try to send out a tweet mainly aimed at him without saying his name but that he absolutely knows is directly about him.
SPOILER
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Demolished three seasons of Dark in less than three weeks and that's probably the best way of doing it.
If you like Time travel yarns this is one of the best IMO
Season one and two are excellent, Se03 looks like its going off the rails and definitely could have been edited down an episode or two a but IMO they pull it all back together very satisfyingly in the final episode.Turning millions into thousands
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