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    Originally posted by Kayroo View Post

    I thought the pause was due to State law requiring a Review Board to be assembled and sworn in for disputed ballots so they paused the whole count until 5pm EST today for that purpose.
    They definitely paused counting of 29k because of an error arising due to incorrect ballots a third-party contractor sent to voters last month. They're up for review but earmarked for counting today

    Theyre all in Allegheny county ie Pittsburgh so Biden heavy in all likelihood.

    Comment


      Biden takes the lead in Georgia by 900+ votes

      Comment


        Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
        Biden takes the lead in Georgia by 900+ votes
        the last inches being ground out
        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

        Comment


          Any chance Betfair declare a winner today? Any guesses when it might happen if not

          Comment


            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

            It was a reasonable bit of logic tbf

            And I don't want your stinkin' money. Or Collie's either.

            I've shipped (boom, boom) €100 to the RNLI. If you guys would care to reciprocate with your nifties, I'm sure that would buy us some good karma.
            Only noticed this now. Fair play to ye.

            rnli2.JPG
            Person...Woman...Man......Camera..TV

            Comment


              Murdoch has definitely given up on Trump. This the bonkers rag that was promoting the Hunter Biden laptop nonsense:

              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

              Comment


                I do like that the two States where Biden will clinch it have connections to recently departed enemies of Trump. Arizona's last laugh from John McCain and John Lewis from Georgia.
                You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
                World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
                  Biden takes the lead in Georgia by 900+ votes
                  STOP THE COUNT

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Keane View Post
                    Any chance Betfair declare a winner today? Any guesses when it might happen if not
                    I think they'll be very hesitant to call anything given the size of the market.

                    If PP didn't need to consider the exc, I could see them declaring but I think they'll wait until AZ & NV are officially locked in.

                    Pennsylvania could be drawn out for a quite a while so even if that flips by a few thousand votes today, they might not be willing to settle.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Kayroo View Post
                      I do like that the two States where Biden will clinch it have connections to recently departed enemies of Trump. Arizona's last laugh from John McCain and John Lewis from Georgia.
                      Apparently his GOP carers tried to get him to make peace with his widow but Trump was having none of it. The chickens have come home to roost .

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                        I think they'll be very hesitant to call anything given the size of the market.

                        If PP didn't need to consider the exc, I could see them declaring but I think they'll wait until AZ & NV are officially locked in.

                        Pennsylvania could be drawn out for a quite a while so even if that flips by a few thousand votes today, they might not be willing to settle.
                        I might just cash out if it gets down to 1.04 or so. Don't want to have a few k sitting on the exchange sweating your man's flailing litigations

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by Keane View Post

                          I might just cash out if it gets down to 1.04 or so. Don't want to have a few k sitting on the exchange sweating your man's flailing litigations
                          Skybet are some chancers, I've never paid much attention to cash out options before. I 1k bet on Biden at 4/9. He is now 1/20 there, and the cash-out option is for 1267

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Kayroo View Post
                            I do like that the two States where Biden will clinch it have connections to recently departed enemies of Trump. Arizona's last laugh from John McCain and John Lewis from Georgia.
                            Arizona revenge is beautiful, they get across the line I'm going there on my holliers
                            Turning millions into thousands

                            Comment


                              Just spent the last 25 minutes shaving off most of my 5-week beard, to leave me with a mustache. First time ever.

                              It kinda looks...OK. Might keep it for Nov anyway.
                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                              Comment


                                Well seen as this is the bad beat section. I was about to have a bet on McEntyre to be 1st round leader in the golf at 30s BUT due to the Election I fell soundly asleep very late and by the time I got up, it have t’eed off. Of course he got there.
                                I was funking for him to double bogey the last hole but now. POxy feeling really yesterday.

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                  Just spent the last 25 minutes shaving off most of my 5-week beard, to leave me with a mustache. First time ever.

                                  It kinda looks...OK. Might keep it for Nov anyway.
                                  pics or it didn't happen

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post

                                    Skybet are some chancers, I've never paid much attention to cash out options before. I 1k bet on Biden at 4/9. He is now 1/20 there, and the cash-out option is for 1267
                                    Yeah that's standard for the bookies. The cash out button is the ultimate grift

                                    Comment


                                      They seem to be teeing up a conclusive bunch of votes coming in PA
                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post

                                        Skybet are some chancers, I've never paid much attention to cash out options before. I 1k bet on Biden at 4/9. He is now 1/20 there, and the cash-out option is for 1267
                                        They really target the Degen who cant wait. In my noticing cashouts over the years i think 365 are the fairest iirc

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by Dice75 View Post

                                          They really target the Degen who cant wait. In my noticing cashouts over the years i think 365 are the fairest iirc
                                          think the only time I've ever used it has been in flat racing where you notice your nag has boiled over on the way to post, generally seems to be a fair price
                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by Keane View Post

                                            I might just cash out if it gets down to 1.04 or so. Don't want to have a few k sitting on the exchange sweating your man's flailing litigations
                                            I think that's a good option provided cashout is somewhat decent. As HJ said, depending on provider and market, the cashout margin may be colossal.

                                            I "beat" cashout offer once; if you remember the time Charles Byrnes had 3 winners in Limerick in 2016. I was working overnight and saw quite a few bets for his horses. It would need to be a bit for me to place a bet on a horse race.

                                            I had a 25e treble, first two win and last horse goes into even money. The bookie offers ever so slightly better value than a marginless cashout so if I cashout and replace the bet, I'd make more money(obv wasnt going to do that though).

                                            I click cashout, get a delay and it halves. I chance contacting customer support and they said the delay was a fault on their side so they honoured the cashout.

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by Dice75 View Post

                                              They really target the Degen who cant wait. In my noticing cashouts over the years i think 365 are the fairest iirc
                                              Yes, like everything else they are the best with cashout too. They are currently offering 91% cashout

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                I think that's a good option provided cashout is somewhat decent. As HJ said, depending on provider and market, the cashout margin may be colossal.

                                                I "beat" cashout offer once; if you remember the time Charles Byrnes had 3 winners in Limerick in 2016. I was working overnight and saw quite a few bets for his horses. It would need to be a bit for me to place a bet on a horse race.

                                                I had a 25e treble, first two win and last horse goes into even money. The bookie offers ever so slightly better value than a marginless cashout so if I cashout and replace the bet, I'd make more money(obv wasnt going to do that though).

                                                I click cashout, get a delay and it halves. I chance contacting customer support and they said the delay was a fault on their side so they honoured the cashout.
                                                Yeah I'm on the exchange so not an issue

                                                Comment


                                                  ...
                                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                  Comment


                                                    ...
                                                    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                      Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                      I think they'll be very hesitant to call anything given the size of the market.

                                                      If PP didn't need to consider the exc, I could see them declaring but I think they'll wait until AZ & NV are officially locked in.

                                                      Pennsylvania could be drawn out for a quite a while so even if that flips by a few thousand votes today, they might not be willing to settle.
                                                      I expect networks will call Pennsylvania this afternoon once Biden gets ahead by a few thousand votes. I am fully expecting a Biden acceptance speech this evening.
                                                      "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post

                                                        I expect networks will call Pennsylvania this afternoon once Biden gets ahead by a few thousand votes. I am fully expecting a Biden acceptance speech this evening.
                                                        I don't doubt that at all but a network calling it and BF settling a near 600m market is different.

                                                        Different broadcasters have called different states at different times and BF's rules don't cover what the exact requirement is for a call.

                                                        I just think they'll be cautious, it'll need to be near unanimous to settle.
                                                        Last edited by Murdrum; 06-11-20, 10:36.

                                                        Comment


                                                          The only explanation I have for Trumps behaviour last night (trying to rationalise it ) was he must SURELY know that after this election he is in major legal trouble. So whilst he knows he has LOST , he is merely buying time to assess his options.
                                                          I think he is in serious trouble when the ‘truth of his dealings’ info flows and gathers momentum over the coming 12 months. His taxes will be the least of his worries. I’m still stunned the way he was allowed to influence the USPS. It’s all pretty much blatant and barefaced and what he was doing was obvious. If there are backing docs & details then they have to make an example of him . Otherwise the Office of the POTUS is stained forever. IT needs to be protected from corruption
                                                          Trump can’t be simply excused. The rats that have deserted him now for the own ends will do a Brutus Stab on him. Even the compassionate Hotspur will be rubbing his hands at this grandfathers comeuppance.

                                                          Comment


                                                            Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                            I don't doubt that at all but a network calling it and BF settling a near 600m market is different.

                                                            Different broadcasters have called different states at different times and BF's rules don't cover what the exact requirement is for a call.

                                                            I just think they'll be cautious, it'll need to be near unanimous to settle.
                                                            What is the actual terms of the bet?
                                                            Win election or Next president?

                                                            Very different in this case.

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
                                                              So whilst he knows he has LOST , he is merely buying time to assess his options.
                                                              It doesn’t buy him time. He is the president until January 20th regardless.

                                                              Comment


                                                                Originally posted by Mellor View Post

                                                                What is the actual terms of the bet?
                                                                Win election or Next president?

                                                                Very different in this case.
                                                                Sean & I briefly mentioned it last night because I wasnt sure when I saw Kamalas price drop.

                                                                It's Next President but because it's based on 270 Electoral College votes, I didn't think Kamala could win.

                                                                This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution


                                                                If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
                                                                Nothing is mentioned regarding how projected electoral college votes are officially determined.
                                                                Last edited by Murdrum; 06-11-20, 10:55.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
                                                                  The only explanation I have for Trumps behaviour last night (trying to rationalise it ) was he must SURELY know that after this election he is in major legal trouble. So whilst he knows he has LOST , he is merely buying time to assess his options.
                                                                  I think he is in serious trouble when the ‘truth of his dealings’ info flows and gathers momentum over the coming 12 months. His taxes will be the least of his worries. I’m still stunned the way he was allowed to influence the USPS. It’s all pretty much blatant and barefaced and what he was doing was obvious. If there are backing docs & details then they have to make an example of him . Otherwise the Office of the POTUS is stained forever. IT needs to be protected from corruption
                                                                  Trump can’t be simply excused. The rats that have deserted him now for the own ends will do a Brutus Stab on him. Even the compassionate Hotspur will be rubbing his hands at this grandfathers comeuppance.
                                                                  Interesting choice of words. In Republican Rome the Consuls were immune from prosecution during their term of office but at the end of it they could be charged with any criminal offence committed while in office. It was supposed to keep them honest. In actual fact it eventually lead to rampant abuse of power and then monstrous bribery to avoid criminal charges. Long history of this sort of executive criminality and how it's dealt with.
                                                                  You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
                                                                  World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                    It doesn’t buy him time. He is the president until January 20th regardless.
                                                                    January ? He is thinking beyond that . I know it's not logical its Trump

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      I think Wolf Blitzer has been the weakest of the CNN anchors, he's losing his thread quite a bit now.
                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
                                                                        Nothing is mentioned regarding how projected electoral college votes are officially determined.
                                                                        Official declarations by each state would be the only logical line to draw it on.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          Apparently the New York AG after him biggly
                                                                          Stories that she wants to declare corporate death on his whole shebang

                                                                          The rapist stuff that has come back up

                                                                          The Pedo and Epstein stuff that won't go away, the families of children he paid money to.

                                                                          Russia

                                                                          All the illegal stuff he did in lead up to election that would normally be brushed under the carpet but when the snowball starts rolling...?

                                                                          Ya...fair chance he is shitting himself about what happens if he loses.

                                                                          Some lad to be hero worshipping, even in jest
                                                                          PMA

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post

                                                                            January ? He is thinking beyond that . I know it's not logical its Trump
                                                                            I don’t think so. Whatever he hopes might happen, even in his wildest dreams, plays out in his head very quickly on the big stage.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                              Official declarations by each state would be the only logical line to draw it on.
                                                                              That won't happen for 2 weeks.
                                                                              You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
                                                                              World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                I think Wolf Blitzer has been the weakest of the CNN anchors, he's losing his thread quite a bit now.
                                                                                Aaahh...he was always a bit of a dink
                                                                                 
                                                                                PMA

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  ...
                                                                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                                                                                    nah its 'sufficient network calls'. Theres only two network calls - Fox+AP, all the others. So when they both call it, its done. Almost certainly today.
                                                                                    They won't wait 2 weeks to call it, they'll just be cautious until a solid consensus is reached and people aren't saying x network called it too early etc.

                                                                                    Imagine the vitriol BF's customer support will have to deal with when they eventually settle it though

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                                                                                      Originally posted by Kayroo View Post

                                                                                      That won't happen for 2 weeks.
                                                                                      I'm aware. That's essentially I was suggesting to prepare for.

                                                                                      It could of been January depending on how loosely it was phrased

                                                                                      Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                                                                                      nah its 'sufficient network calls'. Theres only two network calls - Fox+AP, all the others. So when they both call it, its done. Almost certainly today.
                                                                                      Can you point to that in the fine print?

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                        I think Wolf Blitzer has been the weakest of the CNN anchors, he's losing his thread quite a bit now.
                                                                                        What is it with the sheer amount of anchors though. Apart from John King you only see each for about 5 mins every hour.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          ...
                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                            Watching CNN and Fox News for this. I know it has been that way for years, but it's 5% news and 95% opinion. These opinions are adopted by so many without any thought or critical analysis. I guess this may be one of the reasons why the networks are so biased.

                                                                                            Interesting arguments being put forward about outlandish polling leading to turnout suppression. I think there was a conclusion in 2016 that it led to democrats not voting because they believed it was in the bag for Hillary.
                                                                                            Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

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                                                                                              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                              I think Wolf Blitzer has been the weakest of the CNN anchors, he's losing his thread quite a bit now.
                                                                                              I've seen him tied up by Republicans rather easily over the past year. I like Erin .

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                ...
                                                                                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                  Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                                                                                                  Says it here on betfair:



                                                                                                  Black-and-white, its about most projected votes, not most actual votes. The networks are the only ones that 'project' votes, no one else. The other process by the states which takes a few weeks involves certifying votes, not projecting them.
                                                                                                  You are mixing up the votes cast in the election with electoral college votes. The states don't certify electoral college votes.
                                                                                                  The states certify the election results. And officially announce the winner. At that point electoral college votes are still projected votes. The don't become actual votes until december when the electors cast them.

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                                                                                                    Mainlining coffee here. Hoping for a call before kids come home from school.
                                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                      Mainlining coffee here. Hoping for a call before kids come home from school.
                                                                                                      I'm shocked how preoccupied I have become over the last week.

                                                                                                      I haven't stayed up past 10.30pm in months until this week, routine out the window.

                                                                                                      That said, I refuse to believe I'm getting old.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        ...
                                                                                                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                          ...
                                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                            Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                                                                            I'm shocked how preoccupied I have become over the last week.

                                                                                                            I haven't stayed up past 10.30pm in months until this week, routine out the window.

                                                                                                            That said, I refuse to believe I'm getting old.
                                                                                                            You're not getting old until you stop doing stupid shit.

                                                                                                            The joy of getting older is that you know how to do stupid shit optimally.
                                                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                                                                                                              I highly doubt they'll wait two weeks before paying out? Can see on the betfair explanatory page here that they are thinking about paying out based on projected votes. As in, their baseline assumption, for a landslide, was that they would settle on Tuesday. Which could never be the case if they were waiting on votes to be certified.

                                                                                                              https://betting.betfair.com/politics...021120-51.html
                                                                                                              It's entirely their decision when to pay out - sooner is advantageous. As I mention yesterday, I was paid out a day and a half ago by a bookie.
                                                                                                              A landslide is a easy early payout as there is no way back for Trump. But I can't see them paying out when there is a slim chance of shenanigans. They specifically outline that in your link.

                                                                                                              3) Contested Result

                                                                                                              A contested result includes a legal battle regarding re-count, the Supreme Court deciding the winner and any scenario other than a clean Electoral College vote majority.

                                                                                                              This could happen if we see a margin of less than 1% in a key state like Florida, Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nothing would be conceded in this scenario and the projections couldn't be made given the margins involved.

                                                                                                              There is potential after a re-count that a result would be determined, but legal challenges would be likely should the state Electoral College total be the balance of power in terms of winning the presidency or not.

                                                                                                              There is no way of giving a clear view of settlement time in advance in this case, but these market rules will apply:
                                                                                                              Emphasis original. A contested result, legal battle and margins of less than 1% is exactly what we are in right now.
                                                                                                              If all pending states are called for Biden. Then, 321 is so far ahead that recounts and legal battles are off the table. But they might not settle all markets

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                                                                                                                Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                                I've only been awake two hours or so, but feels like its important to accept the reality that there will be no work done today and not to spend the day pretending to work.
                                                                                                                email traffic in work is down >90% imo, without anyone saying anything it feels like we have all just tacitly agreed that normality can be suspended until Monday.
                                                                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  Boom! Sleepy Joe takes a length out of the field in Pennsylvania.
                                                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                                      ...
                                                                                                                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                                        ...
                                                                                                                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                                                          Potential 306-232 now. Which is what I've been saying is about where I expected.
                                                                                                                          But not i'm kinda looking at NC and wondering if it's possible.

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