Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Wordle Gummidge

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[Raoul Duke III]

Seems that 'vote dump' on Arizona wasn't particularly good for Biden.

Remaining votes are mail-ins, should be positive for Biden

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[Hectorjelly]

He's got some very serious legal and financial trouble coming down the tracks.

I really can't see a former President going to jail (plus it really wouldn't be smart politics given the nature of his support), so maybe some kind of backroom deal where he gets a pardon on condition of quietly fucking off out of public life?

It's not as simple as that. Nixon committed a handful of crimes that could easily be pardoned, Trump has a plethora of federal and state legal issues, some of which can't be pardoned. Also, Nixon didn't accuse Ford of being a paedo!

There's a good article on it here: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...afford-to-lose

[Guest]

Christ...may I never have to listen to another Ben Shapiro wannabe spouting shite like communism and woke ideology with regards to words like heath care and equality

Sick to fuck of hearing of the spoilt brat pearl clutchers at Antifa being called left wing and/or liberal and all!!!

Did you come across this somewhat new guy Dan Bogino:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/technology/dan-bongino-has-no-idea-why-facebook-loves-him.html

I'm sure lots of this is bots and it's hardly representative of these outlets base but whatever he's doing, these are crazy numbers even relative to other Ben Shapiro types:

[Raoul Duke III]

Had to get some sleep but looks like the 306-232 result now overwhelming fav with Biden ready to go past in PA, GA.
AZ and NV staying blue too.
NC - no updates from what I can see. Wonder how close that is?

[Guest]

Had to get some sleep but looks like the 306-232 result now overwhelming fav with Biden ready to go past in PA, GA.
AZ and NV staying blue too.
NC - no updates from what I can see. Wonder how close that is?

He needs about 65% of what remains in NC to get over the line there. Is that in line with what's being coming in?

[Raoul Duke III]

He needs about 65% of what remains in NC to get over the line there. Is that in line with what's being coming in?

Betting had Trump 1/4 to win in NC last I looked. I thought Biden didn't have quite enough votes left to count to get ahead there.

[mcnugget]

Had to get some sleep but looks like the 306-232 result now overwhelming fav with Biden ready to go past in PA, GA.
AZ and NV staying blue too.
NC - no updates from what I can see. Wonder how close that is?

There will be no updates in NC until the 12th. Trump has an ~78k lead with -~117k potential mail-in ballots left to be counted. Some of those mail-ins may have actually voted in person or may not have returned their ballots so it’s a big ask but not impossible for Biden.

[Lazare]

In hindsight, Dems not flipping Senate seats should have been easier to predict.

I doubt more than a small percentage of republicans for Biden carried that sentiment further down the ticket.

[Guest]

There will be no updates in NC until the 12th. Trump has an ~78k lead with -~117k potential mail-in ballots left to be counted. Some of those mail-ins may have actually voted in person or may not have returned their ballots so it’s a big ask but not impossible for Biden.

NYT had NC at 89% when I looked this morning or maybe I just didn’t refresh. They have it at 95% counted now, how come it’s only 117k outstanding? I thought roughly double that outstanding.

*I think I know what you mean, call it a relatively close race for what’s remaining in person but for Biden to pull it out, he needs to win around 75%+ of mail in.

[Raoul Duke III]

In hindsight, Dems not flipping Senate seats should have been easier to predict.

I doubt more than a small percentage of republicans for Biden carried that sentiment further down the ticket.

50-48 to GOP with a double runoff in Georgia at the start of Jan

probably a longshot for Dems to win both of those but that is going to be some craic. Might even make this election look sane.

[ComradeCollie]

Ha, this is why Keith Lemon is trending

[Guest]

Ha, this is why Keith Lemon is trending

Won’t be long now until lads with guns show up at a count centre

[Guest]

Won’t be long now until lads with guns show up at a count centre

150 with guns at Maricopa county in AZ shouting for them to "keep counting".

[mcnugget]

NYT had NC at 89% when I looked this morning or maybe I just didn’t refresh. They have it at 95% counted now, how come it’s only 117k outstanding? I thought roughly double that outstanding.

*I think I know what you mean, call it a relatively close race for what’s remaining in person but for Biden to pull it out, he needs to win around 75%+ of mail in.

Amazing how quickly you can become expert at the intricacies of state voting when there’s money riding on it.

Looks like the 95% is only an estimate. The actual number of votes left is not known yet. There are 117k potential mail in votes plus an unknown number (should be announced today) of provisional votes. In 2016 there were 61k provisional votes cast and 27k of those were counted as valid.

[Raoul Duke III]

Amazing how quickly you can become expert at the intricacies of state voting when there’s money riding on it.

Looks like the 95% is only an estimate. The actual number of votes left is not known yet. There are 117k potential mail in votes plus an unknown number (should be announced today) of provisional votes. In 2016 there were 61k provisional votes cast and 27k of those were counted as valid.

Interesting. Also, if the USPS delays throw up a few more postal ballots.....

77k votes behind with 117k to count would mean Biden would need an 83-17 split which seems unlikely.

But if it was, say 160k votes, that might be in the territory of do-able....

[DeadParrot]

Won’t be long now until lads with guns show up at a count centre

When ahead...

When behind....

[Mellor]

Looks like the 95% is only an estimate. The actual number of votes left is not known yet.

Yes. They are all only estimates. A number of states were shifting up as it became clear that turnout was a factor. Basically they won’t know how many they need to count until they have counted them.

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[Raoul Duke III]

1.2 now on Biden. Seems still a bit uncertain.

The fact that the GOP are launching lawsuits all over the shop in GA and PA tells you everything you need to know

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[Wombatman]

Those 'ask your doctor about [insert wonder drug name, with a shitload of nasty quick talking side effects]' adverts are on US tv are super tilting.

Shouldn't your doctor be the one doing the prescribing?

[Keane]

Those 'ask your doctor about [insert wonder drug name, with a shitload of nasty quick talking side effects]' adverts are on US tv are super tilting.

Shouldn't your doctor be the one doing the prescribing?

Big thing in Bad Science about the fact that pharma companies aren't allowed advertise to consumers in EU but can in the US and what a fuck up it is

[Raoul Duke III]

GA just 18.5k ahead now for El Presidente.

[Solksjaer!]

What chance any of these lawsuits change anything ? And what can happen next ? Seems like there is nothing he can do but it is the fecking US .

[Tar.Aldarion]

Those 'ask your doctor about [insert wonder drug name, with a shitload of nasty quick talking side effects]' adverts are on US tv are super tilting.

Shouldn't your doctor be the one doing the prescribing?

Look at how much medication they are on there, it's a huge thing, those ads are nonstop and docs prob get kickbacks. My first day in the US I couldn't believe the grimness of the tv. Non stop ads about medication and lawsuits (talk to a lawyer you've seen on TV!) then the first news story was about a babies body found in a dumpster.

[Guest]

Those 'ask your doctor about [insert wonder drug name, with a shitload of nasty quick talking side effects]' adverts are on US tv are super tilting.

Shouldn't your doctor be the one doing the prescribing?

Do you occasionally have mild stomach problems after gorging like a mad bastard on junk food?

You should try zentraplinalex2020 and after as little as 30 minutes you should be fine to start stuffing your fat pie-hole again with absolute shit

Talk to your doctor about zentraplinalex2020 and watch him totally drop his hippocrattic oath to get those sweet sweet prescription bucks

That's zentraplinalex2020...talk to your doctor today!

Side affects may include: heart attack, stroke, burst spleen, liver damage, arse like a clowns mouth...

[ionapaul]

Surely the 20% chance that the markets are giving is now down to the likelihood of legal efforts working, rather than unexpected results showing up in the remaining ballots? If all the votes are counted, Biden wins. If they are not/votes are thrown out due to legal machinations, well Trump might have a chance.

I listened to some of Mitch McConnell's victory press conference yesterday, it was interesting. He didn't criticize Trump for 'lawyering up', as he said both sides would do this (true) and it was totally par for the course in tight US elections (true). But I detected a very strong reticence to actually fully back Trump's narrative of fraud, etc... I think it's the same with the vast, vast majority of Republican senior figures. They are not going to devote serious political capital to rowing in behind him if it looks like he's trying to overturn genuine results, it's too risky for them to do so. And do they really want him in the White House at all? Whatever about the crazy MAGAs on Fox News, the men in the grey suits will hopefully drop Trump quick as a flash once it looks like a lost cause.

[ComradeCollie]

the first news story was about a babies body found in a dumpster.

Ha, remember back in the 1980s when the regular broadcast news used to routinely refer to the 'IRA freedom fighters'.

[Raoul Duke III]

Surely the 20% chance that the markets are giving is now down to the likelihood of legal efforts working, rather than unexpected results showing up in the remaining ballots? If all the votes are counted, Biden wins. If they are not/votes are thrown out due to legal machinations, well Trump might have a chance.

I listened to some of Mitch McConnell's victory press conference yesterday, it was interesting. He didn't criticize Trump for 'lawyering up', as he said both sides would do this (true) and it was totally par for the course in tight US elections (true). But I detected a very strong reticence to actually fully back Trump's narrative of fraud, etc... I think it's the same with the vast, vast majority of Republican senior figures. They are not going to devote serious political capital to rowing in behind him if it looks like he's trying to overturn genuine results, it's too risky for them to do so. And do they really want him in the White House at all? Whatever about the crazy MAGAs on Fox News, the men in the grey suits will hopefully drop Trump quick as a flash once it looks like a lost cause.

you gotta look at who's fronting the MAGA response here - Rudy '15 year old would-be shagger' Giuliani and Eric 'even thicker than Don Jr' Trump

not exactly the A Team

[Dice75]

Ha, remember back in the 1980s when the regular broadcast news used to routinely refer to the 'IRA freedom fighters'.

POLICE MESSAGE - Could all keyholders return to their premises on XXXX road immediately

[Kayroo]

Surely the 20% chance that the markets are giving is now down to the likelihood of legal efforts working, rather than unexpected results showing up in the remaining ballots? If all the votes are counted, Biden wins. If they are not/votes are thrown out due to legal machinations, well Trump might have a chance.

I listened to some of Mitch McConnell's victory press conference yesterday, it was interesting. He didn't criticize Trump for 'lawyering up', as he said both sides would do this (true) and it was totally par for the course in tight US elections (true). But I detected a very strong reticence to actually fully back Trump's narrative of fraud, etc... I think it's the same with the vast, vast majority of Republican senior figures. They are not going to devote serious political capital to rowing in behind him if it looks like he's trying to overturn genuine results, it's too risky for them to do so. And do they really want him in the White House at all? Whatever about the crazy MAGAs on Fox News, the men in the grey suits will hopefully drop Trump quick as a flash once it looks like a lost cause.

McConnell's best strategy to keep the Senate in a much MUCH worse map in 2022 is to be a bulwark against Biden and Harris. Unlikely to be a Supreme Court nominee in the next four years so he won't have to deal with that and will hold up any reform of the courts or the electoral college. If Trump won the likelihood is that the Senate would be lost to the Republicans in 2022.

So McConnell does not have aligned interests with Trump. Actually from a long-term perspective the McConnell agenda is improved by Trump losing a nail biter.

[LuckyLloyd]

What chance any of these lawsuits change anything ? And what can happen next ? Seems like there is nothing he can do but it is the fecking US .

This is a good question that I haven't seen addressed particularly well. The only thing I have a good grasp of is the legal battle in 2000 and eventual decision. Back then they ultimately stopped recounting "undervotes", votes originally missed by the machines. The legal point was that because of the myriad of different machine and ballot types across the state which varied wildly from one county to the next, this limited process was potentially unfair and violated the concept of "equal protection". But the dissenting opinions were based around the idea that counting every vote is a fundamental aspect of the constitution.

My reading of the potential precedents here is that Trump is going to really struggle to stop counting of ballots delivered on time within the rules of a state. He may fare better on challenging ballots received after election day. And he may well win in the supreme court if this comes down to the Biden campaign depending on a recount in Pennsylvania or Georgia where the ballots in question were received after election day.

Kayroo probably has a better grasp of all of this. But I'm not worried about challenges at this point. I would be shocked if any court takes a position that some portion of valid ballots received on time shouldn't be counted. So we have to hope Biden ends up in enough of these swing states by at least 20k or more, and that he isn't the one depending on a recount to overturn a narrow defeat in GA or PA. Wisconsin's 20k margin is safe as houses imo, for example.

[LuckyLloyd]

McConnell's best strategy to keep the Senate in a much MUCH worse map in 2022 is to be a bulwark against Biden and Harris. Unlikely to be a Supreme Court nominee in the next four years so he won't have to deal with that and will hold up any reform of the courts or the electoral college. If Trump won the likelihood is that the Senate would be lost to the Republicans in 2022.

So McConnell does not have aligned interests with Trump. Actually from a long-term perspective the McConnell agenda is improved by Trump losing a nail biter.

McConnell has also won the race on the basis of the same ballots Trump is complaining about. So it's not in his immediate interests for Trump to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election.

[Guest]

When will Harris take over? First women president(and poc to boot) won’t go down well at all with the other side.

[Guest]

Worst thing about the US election- distant cousins of candidates in places like Mayo being interviewed by Irish media, desperate stuff

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[Hectorjelly]

Absolutely wonderful summation of Boris Johnston by Rory Stewart. https://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/b...-rory-stewart/

I learnt about 3 new words, including the great: casuistry: the use of clever but unsound reasoning, especially in relation to moral questions; sophistry.

I

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[Raoul Duke III]

Actually, this is probably fine, no? There's still yards more votes to arrive, from places like California that is only 66% counted.

I'd say you're toast on this one, he's going to fall just short imo

Betfair seems to agree: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...et/1.170917922

[Guest]

good post lloyd. just on the bolded - I can't see how they would invalidate the receipt of votes after polling day given they explicitly allow this for military votes, and also that they had an opportunity to stop this before the election and let things proceed - so they are hardly then going to turn around and say 'ummm yeah we should have stopped that'.

for all the ideological discussions about the US supreme court, and it is ideological, its fundamentally a fair court and is never going to allow something that removes fair votes.

I believe that the overarching point made by the Supreme Court justices who sided for dismissing these votes in 4-4 ruling was that the decision taken by the state of Pennsylvania was not their decision to make given it would impact the result of a federal office.

Another recent change that may throw up issues regarding voting:

Election offices in at least 21 states will notify voters of issues with missing or mismatched signatures on their mail envelopes and offer them an opportunity to fix these mistakes. Previously, ballots with such errors or oversights were automatically rejected, resulting in tens of thousands of lost votes in recent elections

[Dice75]

Biden in trouble again, may go in on Trump at 6s based on this....

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[Denny Crane]

I can't understand how Biden was always so big for the popular market.

Big thing in Bad Science about the fact that pharma companies aren't allowed advertise to consumers in EU but can in the US and what a fuck up it is

It's one of the big things that sticks out when I'm over there. I don't see tv ads here, so 1 min long ads where most of the ad is reaming off side-effects is pretty jarring

[Keane]

Everyone on my twitter timeline seems to have gone to sleep. Any updates in arizona since the 69k vote gap?

[Guest]

I wonder though if the precise reason they didn't want to rule on this, as it would be a madly anti-democratic ruling to say that e.g. it was illegal to notify people of a mistake in their vote and to give them an opportunity to correct it. Even for the fundamentalists - that just could not have been the intention of the founding fathers!!

I haven't seen the latter piece raised as an issue thus far.

However in relation to recieved votes past election day Justice Alito has been pretty explicit in his concerns:

“The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania has issued a decree that squarely alters an important statutory provision enacted by the Pennsylvania legislature pursuant to its authority under the Constitution of the United States to make rules governing the conduct of elections for federal office,” he wrote.

Justice Alito said he regretted that the election would be “conducted under a cloud.”

“It would be highly desirable to issue a ruling on the constitutionality of the State Supreme Court’s decision before the election,” he wrote. “That question has national importance, and there is a strong likelihood that the State Supreme Court decision violates the federal Constitution.”

“The provisions of the federal Constitution conferring on state legislatures, not state courts, the authority to make rules governing federal elections would be meaningless,” he wrote, “if a state court could override the rules adopted by the legislature simply by claiming that a state constitutional provision gave the courts the authority to make whatever rules it thought appropriate for the conduct of a fair election.”

[Keane]

I can't understand how Biden was always so big for the popular market.



It's one of the big things that sticks out when I'm over there. I don't see tv ads here, so 1 min long ads where most of the ad is reaming off side-effects is pretty jarring

DO YOU EVER WAKE UP TIRED IN THE MORNING?

Oh shit I think I might have whatever this illness is

[Kayroo]

Kayroo probably has a better grasp of all of this. But I'm not worried about challenges at this point. I would be shocked if any court takes a position that some portion of valid ballots received on time shouldn't be counted. So we have to hope Biden ends up in enough of these swing states by at least 20k or more, and that he isn't the one depending on a recount to overturn a narrow defeat in GA or PA. Wisconsin's 20k margin is safe as houses imo, for example.

The efficacy depends on the end result. If Biden wins Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada then it is really hard to see how Trump's legal strategy works. Too many things need to go his way. SCOTUS has already declined to intervene in Pennsylvania twice despite strong Republican pushes and that was with a conservative majority already in place pre- Amy Coney Barrett.

The other problem is that he likely needs two completely different results in different places. He needs every conceivable vote counted in Arizona and Nevada but needs counting to stop in Pennsylvania and maybe even North Carolina. So the SCOTUS would be asked to hold two entirely different things in the same election. In Bush v Gore it was one state and one specific issue. Maybe it was bullshit, but it could be argued as a consistent intellectual position. That really isn't possible here.

They've also made a mess of it by advertising it in advance. In 2000 the GOP were ready for a legal challenge. Far more prepared than the Dems were certainly. But they kept it quiet. When they brought the challenge in Florida it appeared to be a spontaneous response to developments on the ground. Trump's position was so well sign-posted that it is utterly transparent.

Ultimately Chief Justice Roberts must be conscious that a SCOTUS deciding 2 elections in a generation, both in favour of the overwhelming popular vote loser, would be a systemic challenge to the authority of the Supreme Court. Almost all judges are conscious of their legacy at that level and he won't want to be the Chief Justice who delegitimised the court permanently.

[Kayroo]

Absolutely wonderful summation of Boris Johnston by Rory Stewart. https://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/b...-rory-stewart/

I learnt about 3 new words, including the great: casuistry: the use of clever but unsound reasoning, especially in relation to moral questions; sophistry.

I

Should have spent more time listening to me at the table...

[LuckyLloyd]

The betting markets are interesting. It seems to me that when things stop because the count teams are on a break (why they have so many breaks in counting and it's taking as long as it is another matter) Trump gets bet down. The movement in price over night seems entirely unsupported by anything that has actually happened. We might be trying to see rationale where there isn't any, though I suppose the longer it goes on the more likely Trump breaks a legal challenge or his supporters turn nasty or...something?

[Kayroo]

The betting markets are interesting. It seems to me that when things stop because the count teams are on a break (why they have so many breaks in counting and it's taking as long as it is another matter) Trump gets bet down. The movement in price over night seems entirely unsupported by anything that has actually happened. We might be trying to see rationale where there isn't any, though I suppose the longer it goes on the more likely Trump breaks a legal challenge or his supporters turn nasty or...something?

Betting markets seem entirely irrational to me. At this point there seems to be a lot of hedging or off-setting of risk given the higher uncertainty. Might be moving the relative risks.

Ultimately a lot of people I respect are saying there's now no legitimate way for Trump to win. That once Biden pulls ahead in Pennsylvania the networks will declare Biden the winner. There's an enormous value in that point. Once the narrative becomes Biden wins then Trump will have a much MUCH harder time undoing that. Uncertainty is his best friend right now.

[Guest]

Ultimately Chief Justice Roberts must be conscious that a SCOTUS deciding 2 elections in a generation, both in favour of the overwhelming popular vote loser, would be a systemic challenge to the authority of the Supreme Court. Almost all judges are conscious of their legacy at that level and he won't want to be the Chief Justice who delegitimised the court permanently.

This is something I have read/heard a number of times now. Apparently this concern is a key driver of his recent voting history which has been more liberal.

He positioned himself as the swing vote in many matters due to the conservative make up of the Supreme Court.

Due to Barrett's recent appointment, this has now changed so that Kauvanagh is ostensibly the ideological Swing vote as his rulings thus far have been approx 50/50.

[LuckyLloyd]

Completely agreed: once he becomes a projected winner he goes out and does an acceptance speech and is referred to as the President elect and goes infront of the media every chance he gets demanding his transition team be received. Trump will get boxed in very quickly by the GOP imo once that happens.

Stopping the count in Pennsylvania before Biden catches him is really his only path here imo.

[Strewelpeter]

Won’t be long now until lads with guns show up at a count centre

[Mellor]

Once the narrative becomes Biden wins then Trump will have a much MUCH harder time undoing that. Uncertainty is his best friend right now.

Yeah that very true.
Right how his legal posturing is aiming to prevent Biden being declared the winner. The longer it drags out, the more credible it appears to those that want to believe it.
But if Biden is declared the winner. It shifts to now trying to reverse the decision, and stench of desperation grows.

[Kayroo]

Got to love posts like this from the other place. Kudos to this man.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115177571&postcount=3996

[oleras]

What are his chances of ending up with 312 EC's, is that whats left [potentially ?