Giuliani and Trump Jr. doing press conference on Fox now on law suits. Deplorable stuff.
Main thrust of argument is they weren't allowed to observe counting. Maybe some social distancing rules ruled close observation out.
Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
As mentioned above, it only partially cancels out other bad sidebets, so its more about cutting the sidebet losses!
Think I actually break even\slightly up on sidebets as I backed Trump to win 3/4/5 of TX, FL, PA, AZ, NC and GA. Each at 8/1.
Biden winning GA would bump the sidebet tally a few quid.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
Looking through 538s final predictions pre-election in the event of 3pt polling errors- which is kind of where we’re at now.
Just a few of interest;
Wrong beyond polling error:
They predicted that Biden would still take Wisconsin & Michigan by 5.1 and 4.9 points respectively in the event of 3pt polling error favouring Trump. They’ll end up approx 0.6 and 1.2.
Florida they had at +0.7 favouring Trump with same error but he ended up +3.
Wrong close/within polling error:
Nevada was +2.8 for Biden in event of a 3pt polling error favouring Trump which is probably on the high side but Biden could get close to that there.
Similar for North Carolina favouring Trump by +1.1 which is a little short but not miles off the +1.4 for a pro Trump error.
Georgia looks bang on the 3pt polling error in Trumps favour too.
Pennsylvania is probably too close to call yet but the 3pt polling error favouring Trump would still give that as +1.7 for Biden.
All in all, in spite of polling errors across the board largely favouring Trump, it was Arizona which has effectively bucked the trend.
It projects to end up right around where 538 had originally predicted but if it had followed the trend above, it was projected to favour Trump by +0.7
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
you mean you backed biden to win those states?
Ladbrokes had a market where the options were Trump to win 0\1\2\3\4\5\6 of TX, OH, GA, NC,AZ, FL.
I spotted this one on the very first day I started backing Biden in early September. For some reason 6 was 6\4 and everything else was 8\1 or so.
So I backed the options for Trump to win exactly 3, 4 and 5 of the above, thinking at the time it was a very good combo at about 11/4 combined.
I actually wrote it off as I got more bullish on Biden!
So looks like the one I'll probably collect on is 5 (or maybe 4 if JB can bink Georgia).
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
The next few months, up until inauguration day are gonna be wild.
Are they though?
I think self preservation will start to kick in. He might be all bluster but I don’t think he will do anything completely off the rails for fear of making the target on his back bigger.
maybe I’m being naive
This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
I think self preservation will start to kick in. He might be all bluster but I don’t think he will do anything completely off the rails for fear of making the target on his back bigger.
maybe I’m being naive
Guys like McConnell (now the most important Republican in Washington) seem to be making it pretty clear they don't support the bullshit.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
Down to 290,000 difference in Penn. When it gets into the last 100k we should start cheering it down.
There's a small, but not unlikely, path for Biden to get to 308 votes if he wins Georgia - or a quite likely route for him to get to 290. Then when California etc fully reports he'll be 5million plus votes ahead in the popular vote also. Its actually going to be quite an empathic victory when written down on paper. We might not realise how big it is because of how close we've been to the individual reports and the awful stress of last night!
Trump was up 600k in PA with 75% of votes counted.
With 85% of votes counted, it's now 277k.
So, no idea if that clip can be maintained in a linear fashion...but it looks promising.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
AZ releases more numbers at 2am and apparently NV are also releasing more soon too.
So looking like a result tonight, even if GA and NC seem to be taking their sweet time and are presumably drinking mint juleps.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
Guys like McConnell (now the most important Republican in Washington) seem to be making it pretty clear they don't support the bullshit.
Yeah but I meant more that in the time between now and Inauguration I don’t think Trump will act up nearly as much as we think he will.
he needs good behavior for a deal, or at the very least to avoid triggering more retribution.
i think we will see a sad old man sulk at his golf course and be petty not destructive.
This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
You should listen to the podcast series on Clinton and the Lewinsky affair. Some truly creepy shit in there that you would appreciate.
Hat tip to Murdrum for the recommendation. It's Series 2.
Just finished the first 2. Excellent.
His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
Yeah but I meant more that in the time between now and Inauguration I don’t think Trump will act up nearly as much as we think he will.
he needs good behavior for a deal, or at the very least to avoid triggering more retribution.
i think we will see a sad old man sulk at his golf course and be petty not destructive.
He's got some very serious legal and financial trouble coming down the tracks.
I really can't see a former President going to jail (plus it really wouldn't be smart politics given the nature of his support), so maybe some kind of backroom deal where he gets a pardon on condition of quietly fucking off out of public life?
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
He's got some very serious legal and financial trouble coming down the tracks.
I really can't see a former President going to jail (plus it really wouldn't be smart politics given the nature of his support), so maybe some kind of backroom deal where he gets a pardon on condition of quietly fucking off out of public life?
Yeah exactly. I think this is likely the route. No justice but I’d take it if he promised to never run again (2024).
And for this deal to be offered and favorable I think he’ll keep the head down.
I think he knows SDNY is coming for him.
This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
why would you want him out of public life. keep him on and he'll bully his way into being the repub nominee, and then whatever dem (95%+ Kamala) who is running in four years just walks into office.
Because he's poison. America needs to at least try and heal the wounds, and you can't do that with Trump ranting and roaring into the smartphones of the terminally stupid.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
Trump has a huge, dedicated fan base. He's not going to fuck off when he can put his hands in their pockets. TV show/channel coming or some other way to get their money. He'll continue whipping them up and possibly push Don Jr forward to make a run at it. Don't think he'll have the same pull but who the hell knows.
The man spent his whole life trying to get the public to look at him, he now has it more than ever, he's not giving the limelight up.
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
why would you want him out of public life. keep him on and he'll bully his way into being the repub nominee, and then whatever dem (95%+ Kamala) who is running in four years just walks into office.
Here we go again. Haha.
This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
AZ releases more numbers at 2am and apparently NV are also releasing more soon too.
So looking like a result tonight, even if GA and NC seem to be taking their sweet time and are presumably drinking mint juleps.
Plenty of mint juleps in NC anyway, they are not updating the counts publicly for a week. Still not a foregone conclusion, Trump no shorter than 1/4
The betting markets have eventually caught up with the model predictions and are aligned at last.
At what point yesterday were you most worried?
This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
Watching Fox for the closing chapter and wow - they are never not at it. That Kayleigh McEnemy (?) press secretary one is what Comical Ali hopes he was.
I'm half tempted to stay up for Tucker and Hannity's madness later.
But I seriously need some sleep
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner! https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
I called it last night when ye were all shitting yerselves. Sleepy Joe knew. Be patient . The stifling of votes by the Reps scandal will be big news in the coming weeks. 300 plus seats would be quite the pasting.
Christ...may I never have to listen to another Ben Shapiro wannabe spouting shite like communism and woke ideology with regards to words like heath care and equality
Sick to fuck of hearing of the spoilt brat pearl clutchers at Antifa being called left wing and/or liberal and all!!!
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